Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:05PM Monday December 10, 2018 6:52 PM EST (23:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:54AMMoonset 8:10PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 35.09, -79.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 krah 102043
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
340 pm est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the region
through early Tuesday morning, as a surface low off the carolina
coast tracks northeast away from north carolina. High pressure will
then build in from the west through Wednesday, before pushing to our
east Wednesday night through Thursday. A storm system will bring a
good chance of showers Friday into Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 305 pm Monday...

the threat of noteworthy wintry weather is diminishing quickly. The
easterly push of upper divergence and mid level dpva in tandem with
low level dry air advection has caused the precip shield from
earlier today to shrink and push east of the forecast area. Far e
sections, particularly edgecombe county into wilson county, may see
lingering rain mixed at times with wet snow over the next few hours
as the surface low just off the nc coast continues to pull away
slowly. A mid level deformation band extending across SE tn N al n
ga will stretch ene while pivoting to the SE in response to the
dampening mid level low now diving SE toward N la. After this brief
lull in precip over much of the forecast area, S and SE sections
will see another chance of light rain potentially mixed with a
little sleet or wet snow this evening until shortly after midnight
as the shear axis shifts through in the presence of decent mid level
moisture. But the incoming dry air in the lowest several thousand
feet will limit any precip amounts, thus assuring no additional
accumulation of wintry weather. However, today's partial melting of
the residual snow ice accrual across the northern two thirds of the
forecast area will be subject to refreezing tonight, as temps are
projected to bottom out in the 20s to around 30 areawide. Will leave
the winter weather advisory as is, as it captures most areas that
still have some snow ice coverage from yesterday that is likely to
refreeze tonight. Expect overcast skies to give way to partial
clearing overnight from NW to SE with the onset of subsidence behind
the departing trough. -gih

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
As of 325 pm Monday...

surface high pressure will drift over the southeast states during
this period, with fairly flat to gently anticyclonic mid level flow
and low pws. Expect quite a bit of sunshine tue, which should
greatly help the melting process in non-shady areas. Trends of
statistical guidance along with thicknesses 20-25 m below normal
favor highs from the lower 40s N to upper 40s s. Lows should be in
the 20s Tue night, likely necessitating another winter weather
advisory for black ice in the snowpack-melt areas. Thicknesses will
rise steadily through thu, although we should see some cloudiness
both days. Expect some high clouds mainly across N sections with
passage of a fast-moving mid level perturbation to our n. Thicker
and more numerous clouds will arrive Thu thu night, as the surface
high shifts off the southeast coast followed by a strengthening long-
fetch onshore-directed low level flow into the southeast. Patchy
rain is likely to develop to our SW and spread into our SW sections
thu night, in response to strengthening low level moist upglide and
upper level forcing ahead of a deep low expected to cross tx into la
thu night. Highs in the mid 40s to low 50s Wed and mid 40s to mid
50s thu. Lows in the 20s to around 30 Tue night Wed night, warming
to the low 30s to low 40s Thu night. -gih

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 340 pm Monday...

more wet weather appears likely, but outside of a minor threat of
non-liquid precip early Fri morning in the triad, this next storm
looks like just a rain-producer. The aforementioned low over la ms
early Fri morning will track E then NE over the S and central
appalachians through sat, with varying speeds depending on the
preferred model (the canadian is fastest, while the GFS and ecmwf
are slower, with the ECMWF becoming slower than the GFS by Sat sun).

Deep strong moisture transport and anomalously high pws will support
high pops Fri through early sat. Will carry just showers, although
given how energetic this system could be, a little thunder is
possible. Pops should trail off but remain above climo through sat
night and perhaps into Sun depending on the mid level low track.

Will keep things dry Sun night mon, although gfs ECMWF indications
of a northern stream clipper tracking ese through the region may
result in cloudiness and some sprinkles as it approaches. -gih

Aviation 18z Monday through Friday
As of 1255 pm Monday...

scattered snow showers invigorated by the passing of a mid-level
trough axis continue to diminish across the central piedmont at this
hour. Have left mention of a snow rain mix in at kfay krdu krwi but
that may be a tad overdone according to latest radar data. Even so,
expect improving conditions to be the trend Monday afternoon an
evening, withVFR prevailing for the most part by 21z. Can't rule
out a localized drop to MVFR, but this shouldn't be too widespread.

Outlook: while generallyVFR conditions are expected until a wet
storm system impacts cntl nc late week, patchy fog will be possible
each morning, mainly in areas where snow-cover remains.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for ncz007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>077.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Hartfield
aviation... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi63 min N 1.9 G 4.1 40°F

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi1.9 hrsN 910.00 miOvercast38°F30°F75%1019 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi57 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast35°F28°F76%1021.8 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi1.9 hrsNNE 710.00 miOvercast37°F28°F71%1019.7 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi61 minNNE 14 G 2110.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1019.3 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi57 minN 610.00 miOvercast36°F28°F74%1019.3 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi73 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F32°F78%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm--------------N8N12
G16
N10NE11N11NE14
G19
N13NE8N9N9N6
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Conway
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:39 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:50 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:11 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:31 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.30.60.91.11.21.21.10.90.60.40.20.20.30.60.91.21.31.41.41.210.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Grahamville
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:37 AM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:54 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:09 PM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.20.30.50.70.9110.90.70.50.30.20.10.20.40.70.91.11.21.110.80.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (18,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.