Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

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Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:07 AM EDT (13:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 7:55AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 201211
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
810 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
A vigorous mid level disturbance MCV will cross the carolinas this
afternoon. A surface cold front will cross the region tonight,
followed by high pressure and a drier and more stable air mass for
Friday into Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 500 am Thursday...

a severe weather event is expected to unfold across the carolinas
this afternoon, with at least a couple of significant wind (65 kts
or greater) and hail (2" or greater) reports possible.

A synoptic shortwave trough now amplifying into the NRN lwr ms
valley will pivot newd across the lwr oh and tn valleys this
afternoon, across the cntl appalachians this evening, and off the
middle atlantic coast tonight. An associated swly upr-level jet
streak will lift across the cntl appalachians and northeast through
early tonight, with the right entrance region becoming favorably
coupled over the carolinas with the (left) exit region of a srn
stream jet migrating across the southeast. This pattern will favor
both unseasonably strong synoptic-scale vertical motion and wind
shear over the carolinas this afternoon. Preceding the synoptic
trough, an MCV related to an ongoing severe MCS over the tn valley
is forecast to track newd across nwrn nc and into wrn-cntl va
between 18-21z, while a trailing MCV now over nern la will move
across WRN nc through the same time, then newd across cntl-ern nc
between 21-03z. These mesoscale features will likely focus corridors
of convective development and severe potential, while also
diabatically-stabilizing and potentially diminishing the otherwise
favorable larger-scale severe convective environment peripheral to
them.

At the surface, a 1000 mb low over nwrn in, and a slightly weaker
1001 mb one over nern oh, will consolidate and deepen while tracking
across the NRN middle atlantic states today, to around 995 mb along
the SRN new england coast by 12z fri. A trailing cold front analyzed
at 09z across SRN mo and nwrn ar will move east and cross the srn
middle atlantic states late tonight. That front will be preceded by
an appalachian-lee trough across va and the carolinas, and at least
a couple of strong mesohighs from convection.

Initially discrete storms, including supercells owing to 35-45 kts
of mid level flow, are likely to develop over the WRN carolinas by
early this afternoon, aided by ascent related to the foregoing mcvs,
and initiated along 1) the higher terrain, 2) the lee trough, and 3)
possibly a differential heating mid-lvl cloud shield accompanying
the mcvs. These storms will subsequently spread enewd across the
carolinas and va, with some merging into forward-propagating
clusters mcss, as they encounter an increasingly-hot environment
across the piedmont and coastal plain characterized by steep low
level lapse rates (>9.5 c km) and dcape values in the 1000-1500 j kg
range, amidst 25-30 kts of background swly sfc-3 km shear.

The initially discrete storms will pose a risk of large hail, some
significant, owing to relatively steep mid level lapse rates around
6.5 c km and rotational supercellular effects, while corridors of
damaging wind, some significant with related bows rijs, will pose
the greatest risk as the cold pools merge and grow upscale. While
deep mixing and high lcls, and a lack of appreciable cyclonic
hodograph curvature srh, will limit tornado potential, a conditional
tornado threat could evolve along NE to SW and or east to west-
oriented composite outflow from initial storms, as the trailing mcv
and storms potentially encounter and track along it, in a zone where
lcls would be lower and SRH enhanced on the meso-beta scale.

It will otherwise be hot and breezy outside of convection, with
highs mostly in the upr 80s to lwr-mid 90s.

The last storms will likely be moving out of the coastal plain by or
shortly after 00z, with clearing skies and developing nwly flow
behind the surface front overnight. Lows in the mid 60s to around 70
degrees.

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 515 am Thursday...

a longwave ridge will amplify across the ms valley, with related
nwly flow aloft developing across nc through early sat. Associated
height rises aloft and subsidence will yield the development of a
strong capping inversion that should suppress convective development
through most of the period. The exception, however, will be the
potential remnants of upstream convection mcss in nwly flow, which
may cross the appalachians and affect the nc foothills and nw
piedmont in a weakened state by daybreak sat. At the very least
convective blow-off mid to high-lvl cloudiness will cause skies to
become mostly cloudy to cloudy through the same time, after a sunny
fri. It will be less hot, and near average, in post-frontal high
pressure, with highs ranging from mid 80s across the NRN piedmont to
90-92 degrees across the SRN piedmont and sandhills, and with low
temperatures in the 60s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 410 am Thursday...

Saturday morning a strong upper level low will be located over
newfoundland and labrador with mid-level heights quickly rising over
the great lakes. For central north carolina a leftover cold front
will be stalled near the sc nc border. The main question for
Saturday morning remains vorticity that is scheduled to break off
from an upper level low located near nd. The overall thinking is for
this wedge of PV to dive southeast towards nc sc Saturday. The
ecmwf, gfs, nam, and cmc all show this happening in one form or
another. The general track of the PV and some type of MCS appears to
be anywhere from ga to nc. The current predictability with this
event remains extremely low at this point, so for now have kept
mostly chance pops Saturday. The main adjustment for Saturday was to
lower high temperatures slightly and increase cloud cover.

Saturday evening into Sunday morning another weak disturbance is
forecast to push across the area in the NW flow with even lower
confidence on the eventual track and strength of this wave. Monday
into Tuesday mid-level ridging will move overhead as the next
shortwave approaches the great lakes. Out ahead of this next wave
precipitation chances will decrease slightly as mid-level ridging
temporarily increases. Forecast soundings for both days show a low
level cap forming with a skinny CAPE profile. 850 mb temperatures
Monday and Tuesday also rise to around 20 degrees c which will
support high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The above likely
means that Monday and Tuesday will be relatively warm with lower
chances of convection. Tuesday into Wednesday the wave will eject
northeast into canada with temperatures continuing above normal for
central nc.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 800 am Thursday...

patches of MVFR stratus will lift and scatter through 14z.VFR
conditions, and a breezy and gusty swly surface wind, will otherwise
prevail through early this afternoon. However, the approach of a
vigorous mid level disturbance will cause initially discrete storms
to develop over the WRN carolinas between 16-19z. These storms will
subsequently spread enewd across cntl nc, with some merging into
fast-moving clusters with 45-60 kt surface wind gusts, and others
remaining discrete with large hail, through 00z. A cold front will
cross the region late tonight, with following nwly winds and drier
and more stable air that will yieldVFR conditions through sat.

Outlook: NW flow aloft, and low level moisture return into a
lingering frontal zone over the SRN appalachians and carolinas, will
direct clusters of showers and storms across the region this weekend
into early next week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Mws
long term... Bah
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi37 min SSW 4.1 G 13 79°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi71 minWSW 12 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds79°F73°F84%1009.3 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi71 minSW 11 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F85%1008.8 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi71 minWSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F72°F81%1007.2 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi75 minSW 16 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds80°F73°F82%1008.2 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi71 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F74°F88%1007.5 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi87 minSW 910.00 miFair77°F72°F86%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW8W7SW6W8W14
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W7SW9S6SW6S8S12S9S9S7S7S5S6S4--SW3CalmCalmSW6SW5W4W8W7
2 days agoSW6W7W10W6W8SW8
G14
CalmSW11SW11SW6S5S3S3S6SW6SW8SW7SW8W4CalmS3SW4SW5SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.60.91.21.41.51.41.20.90.60.30.20.20.40.70.91.11.21.110.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Thu -- 12:40 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:24 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.50.711.11.21.110.70.50.30.20.20.30.50.70.90.90.90.80.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.