Monday, June18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:34PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:12 AM EDT (04:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 180228
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1028 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018

A large ridge of high pressure will persist over the southeastern
united states through the middle of the week, bringing hot and
humid weather. A cold front will approach the region from the
north late in the work week.

Near term through Monday night
As of 1025 pm Sunday...

for the remainder of the overnight...

latest surface analysis shows a ridge of high pressure centered
off the mid atlantic coast. A weak surface trough was analyzed
across the piedmont of va south into the carolinas. Further
aloft, a short wave trough was noted across central and western
va that was moving south. The air mass across central nc is
weakly unstable with MLCAPE values around or less to 1000 j kg
with weak mid level lapse rates of around 5.5 deg c km.

Scattered convection earlier this evening moved across portions
of the coastal plain and sandhills region resulting in some
stabilization of those regions. With the arrival of nightfall,
nocturnal stabilization has already established mlcin across
the area. Despite the increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic
environment, the forcing for ascent associated with approaching
trough should initiate convection overnight across southern va
into central nc. In fact, regional radar imagery shows
convection developing in southern va across pittsylvania and
franklin counties. Convection allowing models continue to
indicate that scattered convection will move southeast across
the northern piedmont and the northern central coastal plain
overnight. The best chances of storms will be from raleigh north
and east and will include mid range chance pops in these areas.

Can't rule out an isolated storm elsewhere, so will include a
slight chance pop for most of the overnight because of this.

Muggy lows tonight will range in the lower 70s. -blaes
for Monday and Monday night... A series of weak disturbances
rounding the east side of the mid upr ridge (the ridge now
centered over the mountains), coupled with the sea breeze and or
outflow boundaries from shower TSTM activity earlier in the
night, will keep the focus and chance for additional scattered
shower TSTM activity during the day and evening mainly east of
i-95. Farther west (west of the triangle) and closer to the
ridge center, it will be a bit drier with weaker large-scale
forcing. As such, for the day and evening hours Monday, will
have the highest pops east and lowest pops west. While scattered
showers and tstms and resulting cloudiness may providing a
limiting factor for temps, where it remains dry with ample
sunshine look for highs to climb well into the mid 90s, with
head index values approaching heat advisory criteria (which is
105). Partly cloudy Monday night with lows in the mid 70s. -np

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
As of 155 pm Sunday...

Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day and the day with the
highest heat indices. Current projections remain just about the same
as previously mentioned. We expect the ridge to be overhead. The dew
points of 70-75 will combine with highs in the mid to upper 90s to
produce heat indices of 100-105 in the NW piedmont, and 105-110 in
the east. This is highlighted in the hazardous weather outlook. It
currently looks as if only isolated storm chances during the
afternoon or early evening will be the only chance of cooling relief
Tuesday. Even lows Tuesday night should remain 75-80, near the
record high daily minimums. This could yield excessive heat

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 155 pm Sunday...

heat should back off just a bit, higher storm chances mid to late

Hot and humid weather is expected to continue into the late week and
weekend. There is a possibility of a weak cold front "backdooring"
our region, possibly aided by convective outflow boundaries Thursday
night into Friday. This obviously would aid in brining some enhanced
thunderstorm chances and slightly cooler daytime highs for at least
part of the region Friday into Sunday. Forecasting where
thunderstorms and resultant boundaries will be this far out is very
low confidence. Of much higher confidence is that most guidance
suggests that the main fronts or cooler less humid air will remain
to our north, given the strength of the mid upper ridge over the
region. The ridge is forecast to back off a bit with slightly lower
heights over the mid-atlantic states late Wednesday through
Thursday. This does suggest a higher chance of mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Lows in the 70s expected, with highs in the
90s (mid to upper 90s Wednesday, and lower to mid 90s Thursday
through the weekend). Currently, the highest pop is advertised on
Thursday, with a bit lower chances late week (again timing of
mesoscale features low confidence this far out).

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
As of 835 pm Sunday...

24 hour TAF conditions:VFR conditions are generally expected to
continue through the 24 hour TAF period. However, there is a
small chance of some pre-dawn near dawn patchy stratus and or fog
near krwi (which had an appreciable amount of rain today). Also,
isolated to at times scattered convection will be possible this
evening and again Monday afternoon across mainly the eastern half of
central nc, though probabilities for Monday afternoon look to be
less than today.

Outlook: VFR conditions will generally persist through wed. Typical
mid-afternoon-through-mid-evening shower storm chances will be lower
than usual through tue, with only an isolated risk. Shower storm
chances will increase Wed and particularly Thu as the stable ridge
over the region weakens and a frontal zone approaches from the north.

Max temperature and high-minimum temperature records...

rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 18 100 1944 73 2015
06 19 100 1944 77 1970
06 20 100 1924 75 2009
06 21 100 1933 75 1924
06 22 100 1914 75 1981
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 18 98 2015 75 1935
06 19 102 1944 73 2010
06 20 102 1887 77 1924
06 21 101 1933 75 1933
06 22 100 1981 78 1933
rec hi
day MAX yr min yr
06 18 102 1944 76 2017
06 19 102 1944 77 2017
06 20 102 1970 77 2009
06 21 105 1933 84 1928
06 22 101 1990 84 1928

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Blaes
near term... Blaes np
short term... Badgett
long term... Badgett
aviation... Bsd np
climate... Kcp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi42 min ESE 1 G 1.9 79°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi16 minSSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds80°F73°F82%1020.4 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi16 minSSW 910.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1020.2 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi16 minSW 1010.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1019 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi20 minSSW 1010.00 miFair80°F73°F79%1019.3 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi16 minSSW 610.00 miFair82°F72°F75%0 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi17 minSSW 610.00 miFair80°F73°F82%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4SW4SW4CalmS4CalmCalmS4SW5SW7SW7S5S3S8S10S10S11S8S8S5S4S8S7SW8
1 day agoCalmSE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE4SE5S3SE6SE4SE7SE5SE4SE9SE7S8S4S8S7S5S5
2 days agoSW3CalmW3N3CalmW4NW3N3NE7N5NE3N7NE7NE5NE5N4N7N6N8E5E3E4SE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:20 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:11 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:12 PM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.