Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:27PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 6:46 PM EDT (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:03PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 192031 cca
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
405 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
A narrow ridge of high pressure will extend across the north
carolina piedmont tonight. A coastal low pressure system will
strengthen while tracking along the coast of the carolinas and
virginia Wednesday night through Thursday. This low will deepen off
the new england Friday, causing breezy conditions over north
carolina.

Near term through tonight
As of 320 pm Tuesday...

skies will remain mostly clear across the region this evening,
thanks to a narrow sfc ridge extending sw-ne from the southern
appalachians to off the southern new england coast. The cool dry air
underneath this feature will permit temperatures to cool quickly
after sunset. Meanwhile, a S W skirting along the northern gulf
coast and the northern fl peninsula will progress east-northeast to
a position off the the SE u.S. Coast by early Wednesday. This
feature will induce an inverted trough to develop near the coast by
morning. The enhancement of the low level ely flow will occur,
leading to low level moisture advection into the coastal plain, and
potentially the sandhills and eastern piedmont. The NAM has been
aggressive with this advection of low level moisture, bringing
cloudiness well into the piedmont. Bulk of other near-term guidance
keeps the clouds confined to locations east of highway 1. Will
follow this line of thinking. While a patch or two of light rain may
skirt across our southeast counties at dawn, threat appears too
minimal to mention at this time. Overnight temperatures will vary
from the upper 20s-lower 30s across the NW (in close proximity of
the sfc ridge) to the mid-upper 30s SE where encroaching cloud cover
may cause temperatures to hold steady late tonight.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday
As of 405 pm Tuesday...

forecast uncertainty increases Wednesday into Wednesday night as
model guidance differs appreciably in the amount coverage of clouds
and rain which will have an effect on high temperatures on Wednesday.

Nam model guidance continues to be the aggressor when it comes to
moisture advection and the development of low clouds and rain
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the GFS has trended a
little wetter but still maintain a mostly dry forecast, especially
for portions of the southern and western piedmont. The latest ecmwf
appears to be following a pattern comparable to the nam.

A significant S W currently moving sewd across the central plains
will continue to drive sewd into the lower ms valley by Wednesday
evening. The approach of this feature will induce sfc cyclogenesis
off of the coast by myrtle beach by the end of the day Wednesday.

The S W is projected to take a negative tilt Wednesday night, more
so on the NAM and ecmwf, and not as dramatic on the gfs. While the
nam and ECMWF lift the sfc wave up the i-95 corridor Wednesday night-
early Thursday, the weaker GFS keeps the sfc wave offshore. The more
inland track of the nam ECMWF would spread more moisture into
central nc. The available moisture along with the strong dynamics
aloft suggest widespread rain with a band of moderate-heavy rain
focus near the track of the sfc low. If the GFS scenario verifies,
the deeper moisture would be confined to the coastal plain with
limited rainfall expected over the western-southern piedmont.

The presence of the sfc ridge to our north with the parent high to
our northeast suggest that a more inland track of the sfc wave may
be more correct. Thus, will follow the nam ECMWF scenario with some
adjustments in case the GFS is correct.

Expect clouds to increase thicken east-to-west Wednesday, arriving
latest across the western-northwest piedmont. Increasing isentropic
upglide by mid day should lead to spotty light rain over the
southern coastal plain and sandhills, expanding west and north by
the end of the day. Anticipate rain to blossom over most of the
region Wednesday night with the steadiest heaviest rainfall in
vicinity of the highway1 i-95 corridors overnight. Will advertise
high end likely pops across portions of the eastern piedmont and
northern coastal plain late Wednesday night into early thu. If model
trends persist, categorical pops will be warranted for the northeast
third of our region. With the strong lift supplied by the negatively
tilt trough and the 300mb jet streaking to our south, placing
central nc in the favored left exit region, have increased rainfall
amounts, with about three-quarters of an inch to an inch of rain
possible over the eastern sections. Much lesser amounts currently
expected across the west.

The rain will taper off sw-ne Thursday morning, though the approach
of another S W from the west-northwest will maintain a threat for
showers, especially across the north, Thursday afternoon. Will
initially shunt the sfc wave to lifting the sfc wave inland and nwd
along the i-95 corridor.

Temperatures Wednesday dependent upon extent of cloud cover and rain
coverage. If the aggressive NAM is correct, limited Sun over the
western piedmont where overnight temperatures near freezing will
occur will limit their temperatures recovery to no more than the
lower-middle 40s. Additionally, if rain breaks out over the east,
then highs in the lower 40s will be common. Anticipating some delay
in the cloud arrival in the west and rain initiation in the east.

Have blended MOS guidance to achieve highs a few degrees the warmer
gfs mos. The rain falling through the dry sub cloud layer in the
west should lead to evaporative cooling, permitting temperatures to
fall then hold steady in the 30s to around 40. Temperatures
overnight in the east will average 40-45 though could see
temperatures warm overnight temporarily in the far east as the sfc
low lifts nwd.

Thursday's high temperatures dependent upon when if the clouds thin
out enough. Favor temperatures closer to the cooler NAM mos. If wly
flow able to scour out the moisture to permit partial sunshine, then
highs Thu could end up 3-4 degrees warmer than forecast.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
As of 252 pm Tuesday...

precip chances will quickly wind down Thursday night as the short
wave exit exits to our east. Deep NW flow will promote caa,
meanwhile a tight sfc pres grad behind the departing system will
provide breezy conditions... All resulting in a chilly night into
daybreak Friday. Lows in the upper 30s, although it will feel a bit
cooler due to the wind.

Then the period Friday through Sunday appears to be dry with mainly
seasonable temps with ridging both sfc and aloft transiting our
area. As the high slips offshore late in the weekend, look for
moderating temps and gradually increasing clouds.

The next wx system will come during the first half of next week.

It's an interesting system with models depicting a closed h5 low
dropping sewd from the central plains to across the carolinas.

Thermo profiles would suggest perhaps a late-season p-type concern
across the piedmont, but given that this system is so late in the
forecast period, inevitably the details will change below now and
then. Will continue to monitor model trends, and for now will show
increasing pops during this time.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 140 pm Tuesday...

whileVFR parameters will occur across central nc through 06z
Wednesday, a developing area of low pressure off of the SE u.S.

Coast will spread moisture back into the eastern and southern
counties by early Wednesday. As moisture increases deepens Wednesday
morning into the afternoon, ceilings will lower into the MVFR
category in vicinity of kfay, krwi, and krdu. In addition, patchy
light rain will develop Wednesday afternoon, primarily over the
sandhills and coastal plain. As the low makes its closest approach
to our region Wednesday night, rain will become more likely over all
but the far western and southern piedmont. As the rain expands in
coverage, ceilings will likely lower into the ifr category at krdu,
kfay, and krwi. Currently appears that the ceilings in the triad
will be no worse than MVFR. Late Wednesday night, marginal low level
wind shear conditions may affect kfay and krwi.

The low will lift away from our region Thursday into Thursday
evening, improving lifting ceilings from the west-southwest. Expect
vfr parameters Friday through Sunday .

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Np
aviation... Wss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi77 min NNE 2.9 G 6 60°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi51 minNE 310.00 miFair55°F24°F30%1028.1 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi51 minENE 810.00 miFair54°F23°F30%1028.8 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi51 minENE 610.00 miFair56°F25°F30%1026.8 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi55 minNE 1010.00 miFair57°F24°F28%1026.3 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi51 minN 710.00 miFair56°F24°F29%1026.4 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi67 minNNE 510.00 miFair56°F25°F32%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10NE4NE9NE9NE10NE8NE5NE6NE5NE3NE5NE3NE5NE5NE7E9E8--NE7
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1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7CalmSW4NW3N6NE7W5NW14
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2 days agoW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N3N5NE7NE8NE8N7NE8N6NE5N5N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Tue -- 02:18 AM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:36 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:44 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.21.41.31.10.70.2-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.30.20.81.21.51.61.410.60.1-0.3-0.4-0.30

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Tue -- 03:16 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:40 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:42 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:14 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.711.11.10.90.60.2-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.20.20.611.21.21.10.80.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.