Sunday, September23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:12PM Sunday September 23, 2018 3:39 PM EDT (19:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:50PMMoonset 4:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 231859
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
255 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

A backdoor cold front will sag slowly southward through the area
late today. Behind the front, cool high pressure will extend
southward through central north carolina through Tuesday. Weak low
pressure will track northward over coastal north carolina Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 255 pm Sunday...

the low level stable pool remains over the N piedmont at this hour,
topped with high thin clouds streaking across N W nc. But as the
last few cam runs have foretold, the low clouds have begun to break
up, and recent GOES channel 2 vis imagery reveals stable wave clouds
in this region, with convective clouds along its S E edge. We're
finally starting to see some shallow showers along the differential
heating zone at the edge of the wedge front, from around scotland
neck SW near rwi and tta. This is along a narrow zone of marginal
cape and around 25 kts of effective shear, and as these should both
be maintained for a few more hours, we should continue to see
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two through the
rest of the afternoon. Loss of heating should result in a
diminishing of the convection, and a backing of weak steering flow
to a sse direction should prompt a drift of any remaining isolated
convection into the NW piedmont through the rest of the evening.

Weak moist upglide that has abated for much of the day is expected
to resume this evening, resulting in the low clouds filling back in
tonight, with the thickest lowest clouds across the climatologically-
favored piedmont, an area that may also see patchy drizzle
overnight. Expect lows mostly in the low-mid 60s, perhaps some upper
60s se. -gih

Short term Monday and Monday night
As of 410 am Sunday...

weak e-sely isentropic lift atop the wedge of cool and moist high
pressure from the NE will support widespread cloudiness and a chance
of light rain showers Monday and Monday night. By the afternoon and
evening, weak shortwave disturbances skirting across NW portions of
the state could provide some weak forcing lift aloft to support
slightly better coverage across the NW piedmont.

Partial cad erosion via solar insolation atop the shallower damming
regime across the sandhills and coastal plain could allow for some
breaks in cloud cover during the afternoon, which will once again
set-up a pretty decent NW to SE temp gradient Monday. Highs ranging
from near 70 NW to lower 80s se. Lows Monday night in the mid to
upper 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 345 am Sunday...

a cold air damming (cad) type regime will continue across central nc
to begin the period Tuesday, while a sub-tropical wave of moisture
continues to push westward toward the outer banks of nc. A gradual
decay of the cold air wedged will likely occur Tuesday and early
Wednesday, resulting in a rather substantial high temperature
gradient SE NW across north carolina. Expect highs to approach 90
across portions of the sandhills coastal plain, while the triad will
likely remain in the mid 70s under slowly thinning skies.

Model consensus allows for most areas to break free of the cad by
Wednesday afternoon evening thanks to the combination of a cold
front slides eastward through the great lakes region, and the sub-
tropical disturbance pulls northward along the outer banks. In
between these systems, widespread precipitation is not expected
until Wednesday night, as the cold front arrives on our western
doorstep. This front will eventually cross into the area Thursday
afternoon before stalling, providing a focus point for rounds of
convection Thursday and Friday, especially during the afternoon
hours. A reinforcing front arrives on it's heals late Friday,
attempting to clear the forecast area of precipitation chances to
begin the weekend. Still some uncertainty on timing specifics, but
models have come into better agreement allowing the front to finally
push east off of the coast by Friday night, resulting in a cooler
and drier area of continental high pressure to settle across the
region over the weekend.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Thursday
As of 1215 pm Sunday...

at int gso rdu: ifr CIGS within the cool stable air north of the
backdoor front will continue to gradually lift to MVFR this
afternoon, with holes breaking through the overcast skies. A short
period ofVFR conditions is possible, mainly 20z-00z, with a small
chance of a shower near rdu. But as we approach sunset, low clouds
are expected to fill back in quickly, with a return to ifr CIGS and
to MVFR to ifr vsbys (fog) shortly after 02z. These sub-vfr
conditions should hold through at least mid morning mon. CIGS will
slowly lift to MVFR between 14z and 18z (the end of the TAF valid

At rwi fay:VFR conditions will hold at fay, while MVFR CIGS at rwi
should improve toVFR by 20z. These two locations will also see a
chance of a shower this afternoon and early evening, until around
00z. Conditions should then begin to drop to MVFR then ifr by 05z at
rwi and by 07z at fay, where they will remain until CIGS vsbys
slowly improve toVFR after 15z.

Looking beyond 18z mon: slow improvement will continue mon
afternoon, with MVFR to low-endVFR lasting through the rest of the
day. A return to ifr is expected Mon night areawide, followed by
another slow improvement toVFR tue, with a chance of showers and
storms, greatest at rwi fay. Clouds and the shower storm coverage
will increase for Wed Thu Fri as a front approaches from the NW and
stalls over the region. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Hartfield
short term... Cbl
long term... Jjm
aviation... Hartfield

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi69 min ESE 4.1 G 8 85°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi43 minSSE 410.00 mi86°F65°F51%1019.2 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi43 minVar 510.00 miFair84°F71°F65%1019.9 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi1.7 hrsENE 310.00 miFair84°F67°F58%1019 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi47 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F66°F53%1018 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi1.7 hrsSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F68°F55%1018.7 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi54 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F66°F53%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----------------------------------------CalmSE5S5S4
1 day ago1254E3SE3SE4SE6SE4--------------CalmSE3SE3CalmCalm------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.