Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Franklin, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:47PM Friday March 24, 2017 10:07 AM EDT (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:21AMMoonset 3:23PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Franklin, NC
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location: 35.1, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 241034
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
634 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move off the east coast today. A low pressure
system emerging from the great plains over the weekend will bring
moisture to the southeast Saturday through Sunday. Unsettled weather
will continue through Tuesday as another low pressure system moves
from the plains to the ohio valley, allowing gulf of mexico moisture
to persist over the southeast.

Near term /through tonight/
630 am edt update... Main issue with update is warm temps due to stcu
deck covering the WRN half of the cwfa. Will generate nearly steady
state conds in the grids for this area. Low CIGS shud hang on thru
most of the morning over the WRN zones... With the kclt area likely
maintaining mostly clear or sct skies due to stronger sfc ridge
axis in the area.

Previous discussion: a strong ulvl ridge axis will cross the fcst
area over the period. This will keep mlvl air relatively dry as a
subs inversion develops down to h85. An associated sfc high will be
shifted eastward during this time and good llvl gom moist flow will
encompass the WRN half of the fa. Good WAA is noted at h925 and this
will limit any potential for conv this afternoon while holding
mixing to arnd 15-18 kft. Thus... No good gust potential will be had.

There will be increasing mech lift associated with the llvl jet
across the SRN escarpment overnight and this will help spawn shallow
-shra with limited precip amounts thru daybreak. Clouds shud scatter
out most locales this afternoon and allow MAX temps to reach right
arnd normal levels. Re-developing stcu overnight will hold mins a
couple cats above normal.

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/
As of 230 am edt Friday: the numerical models feature relatively
good agreement through the short range with a 500 mb low pressure
center lifting from the southern plains Saturday morning to the
southern shores of the great lakes by late Sunday. At low levels of
the atmosphere, upslope/upglide flow and increasing moisture should
allow scattered showers to gradually break out in and near the
mountains through the day on Saturday. Meanwhile, strong pre-frontal
convection moving east across the lower ms valley will slow down as
it approaches the base of the southern appalachians through Saturday
night - getting increasingly hung up in the veering southwesterly
flow aloft east of the lifting wave. Peak pops for our area should
develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the upper trough
acquires a negative tilt, the associated upper level forcing lifts
northeast through the western carolinas, and deeper moisture
arrives. 850 mb flow will back slightly and strengthen through
Saturday night, with surface to 3 km bulk shear values reaching
around 35 to 40 kt in western sections. Instability should be a bit
limited, however, given the general early morning timing, but a
thunder mention for most southern tier sections seems warranted for
am Sunday.

An open gulf and persistent southwest flow at low levels will then
keep shower chances going through Sunday despite the departure of
the better upper support. Sunday afternoon SBCAPE values could well
reach 1000 j/kg across the lower piedmont and scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will be featured across the area with MAX temps in the
70s east of the mountains. Sunday night should again be quite mild
with 50s min temps all but the higher ridges.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/
As of 240 am edt Friday: deep layer southwesterly flow will persist
between systems on Monday as another plains trough moves east to the
mid ms river valley. Expect mainly scattered diurnal convection
during day Monday with maximum temperatures in the 70s all but the
northern mountains. The approaching trough should then cross the
appalachians Monday night/Tuesday morning and pull east through the
day on Tuesday. The timing of the overnight passage of the deeper
pre-frontal convection may serve to limit instability somewhat, but
shear will need to be closely monitored for an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm threat.

Some drying is then indicated from late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Broad upper ridging should be in place Wednesday through Thursday as
the next upstream low pressure system carves out across northern tx.

A passing cold front may settle just south of the region and stall
on Wednesday, but with limited attendant moisture. Atlantic/gulf
moisture may then start working back north over the boundary on
Thursday.

Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/
At kclt and elsewhere: mainlyVFR conds thru the period. Some
lowering into MVFR stcu is possible across all sites except kclt
aft daybreak for a few hrs. Kclt shud remain too far from the better
llvl moisture flux for morning mfvr cig mention... But may see
vfr cigs. Vertical mixing will remain quite low thru the day as
h92 WAA creates a strong cap. Thus... Winds will remain s/ly and
weak all sites with no good gust potential. Skies will
scattered out this afternoon with heating... WithVFR cigs
lowering to MVFR during the overnight period for most sites.

Outlook: increased precip chances return Saturday thru Sunday which
will create flight restrictions across the most terminals. An
unsettled and moist pattern will persist next week and maintain the
chances for low CIGS and vsby.

Confidence table...

10-16z 16-22z 22-04z 04-06z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 91% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 97% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 83% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 89% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC9 mi27 minESE 410.00 miOvercast52°F39°F64%1032.2 hPa

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3E6SE3SE8S3S6
G14
S6S6S7CalmCalmE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW3NW6NW5W10
G15
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W8NW5NW5NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN8N5
G14
N7NW6NE3NW6NW3NW6NW4CalmW17
G34
CalmCalmNW6CalmCalmCalmNW5N6NW8
G16
NW6NW6NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.