Wednesday, December12, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Franklin, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:21PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 11:59 AM EST (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 10:15PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Franklin, NC
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location: 35.1, -83.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 121544
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1044 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Dry high pressure will move east across northern florida today as a
deep low pressure develops near texas. This low pressure brings
widespread rain to our region from Thursday night into Saturday.

Expect heavy rain on Friday. Low pressure moves away on Sunday with
a few days of dry weather expected.

Near term through tonight
As of 1040 am: overall forecast is in fairly good shape with enough
high clouds moving overhead from the southwest for mostly
cloudy skies, working out as expected. However, temperatures,
especially across the mountains, are slow to rebound this
morning due to the cloud cover. Have bumped highs down several
degrees as a result and there is a chance that this won't even
be enough. Highs now generally in the 40s with a few low 50s for
the southern upstate of sc into northeast ga. The winter storm
advisory for black ice was allowed to expire for nearly
everywhere it was in effect temps have generally risen above
freezing, although some mountain locations are still hovering
near freezing so there may still be some icy spots, especially
where the advisory extends until noon across the northern

Tonight, a dry cold front will approach the southern appalachians
from the west, bringing some stratocu in across the tn line. The
rest of the area will see periods of thick cirrus as the northern
stream wave passes by to our north. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure
will migrate to the carolina coasts, allowing for a little more
pressure gradient across the area. This should result in a little
less radiational cooling and keep temps mainly in the 32-36 deg
range, except for some of the mountain valleys and the nc foothills
and piedmont, which will fall below freezing. Depending on how much
snow is left after today, we may need some product for black ice
again in portions of nc.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
As of 310 am Wednesday: a strong short wave trough digging from the
rockies will close off across texas and the southern great plains
early in the period, with deep southerly flow becoming established
across our area Thu thu night. Warm conveyor belt forcing and
moisture will overspread the forecast area Thu night, with
categorical pops advertised for much of the area by daybreak Friday.

A transitory period of wintry precip is possible across mainly the
northern nc mtns near the time of precip onset, but the pattern does
not favor much of a threat of accumulating precip, and rain should
set in fairly quickly. There are significant differences among the
model guidance regarding QPF during this time frame, but certainly
the potential for localized heavy rainfall possible isolated hydro
issues is there, ESP in light of very stout low level SE upslope
flow and what should be poor antecedent conditions caused by
lingering snowpack.

Otherwise, in-situ cold air damming will become established for
Friday, while the warm conveyor belt gradually shifts east of the
area. Stacked cyclone and associated occluded front will remain to
our west through at least early Sunday, with showery perhaps drizzly
weather expected Fri night and Saturday and wedge erosion likely
occurring as parent surface high moves well off the new england
coast. MAX temps will be below normal until Saturday, when eroding
wedge and WAA regime should allow for warming to near or even above
climo. Min temps should be a few degrees above normal through the

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
As of 130 am est Wednesday: guidance disagrees on exactly when the
remnant upper low will traverse the forecast area, and some moisture
may linger through the beginning of the medium range on Sunday
morning. Regardless, the mountains will likely see either frozen or
liquid precip continue into the day on Sunday before tapering off
Sunday night as the upper low lifts off to the northeast. Whether or
not the sc upstate nc piedmont see continued precip during the day
on Sunday or dry rapidly is still uncertain, as global modals are
struggling mightily with the upper pattern and handling of numerous
shortwaves passing through the eastern CONUS near the beginning of
next week. This is all a very complicated way of saying Sunday will
feature chance pops in the mountains and slight chance elsewhere.

Regardless of the upper pattern evolution, dry high pressure will
take over the southeast at the surface, resulting in a few
desperately-needed dry days at the end of the medium range.

Temperatures for the entire medium range should stay near to a
category above average.

Aviation 16z Wednesday through Sunday
At kclt and elsewhere: not much change to the tafs for the 12z
issuance.VFR conditions are expected through the period with dry
high pressure in place. Light and variable winds overnight, become
light SW by early aftn. I did bump up cirrus cigs, as IR Sat imagery
shows plenty of thicker clouds streaming in from the west. There may
be some clearing this evening on the back side of the cloud shield,
but upper level moisture quickly returns overnight. Guidance not
showing any hints of fog tonight, despite slight uptick in dewpts.

Temps will also run a little warmer tonight, so no fog mention in
any of the tafs for now.

Outlook: quiet conditions will remain in place into Thursday. A
frontal system will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain to area
terminals by Friday with associated restrictions developing late
Thursday and continuing into the weekend.

Confidence table...

15-21z 21-03z 03-09z 09-12z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC9 mi79 minN 010.00 miFair32°F28°F88%1023 hPa

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW5N7W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.