Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oceano, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 10:08 PM PST (06:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 8:55PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 819 Pm Pst Tue Dec 11 2018
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 15 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds after midnight.
Wed..N winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 9 to 10 ft at 16 seconds, subsiding to 7 to 8 ft at 16 seconds after midnight.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 8 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 9 ft at 16 seconds, building to 10 to 11 ft at 16 seconds after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 11 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 11 ft. Chance of rain.
PZZ600 819 Pm Pst Tue Dec 11 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 7 pm pst, a 1030 mb surface high was located over northern utah and a thermal trough was along the ca coast. Hazardous seas are likely through much of the week across the outer coastal waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oceano, CA
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location: 35.11, -120.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 120406
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
806 pm pst Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis 11 239 pm.

Gusty offshore winds will develop by Thursday and will help to
bump afternoon temperatures above normal by midweek. Otherwise
there will be fair skies and dry conditions into the weekend then
a chance of rain on Sunday.

Short term (tue-fri) 11 802 pm.

***update***
gusty north winds are affecting some areas this evening as an
upper low moves southeast of the region. A shortwave ridge will
build over central and southwest california overnight, with
increasing northerly gradients at the surface. Winds are currently
gusting to around 35 mph along the western portion of the santa
barbara south coast where a wind advisory is in effect through
noon on Wednesday. The gusty winds are expected to fill into the
eastern portion of the south coast later tonight, shifting to the
northeast. Gusty winds up to 35 mph are also affecting the l.A.

And ventura mountains, especially through the i-5 corridor and in
the higher peaks of the santa monicas.

Lower confidence continues in the formation of a catalina eddy
later tonight, which would push some stratus clouds over coastal
l.A. County. The 00z model maintains this trend so will keep the
low clouds in the forecast.

***from previous discussion***
some cooling expected tomorrow for coast valleys as gradients
trend onshore. Mtns and far interior valleys will warm slightly
under weak ridging aloft warming the air mass.

A trough dropping out of canada and into the great basin later
Wednesday will begin our transition into a weak and brief santa
ana event Thursday. Might be low end advisory level northeast
winds for some of the valleys and mtns but minimal upper support
will certainly be a limiting factor. Temps will warm up though,
with the ridge axis right overhead, especially at lower
elevations with highs generally in the 70s.

The ridge will shift east Friday as the next trough pushes onshore
across the pac. Nw. Models have been consistent showing a large
plume of high level moisture moving into the area well ahead of
the trough Friday resulting in mostly cloudy skies all areas by
afternoon. Models have backed off precip chances for slo county as
the downstream ridge dissipates too much of the energy and lower
level moisture. So for now just some clouds Friday and Friday
night but dry. Temps will cool off Friday as gradients trend
onshore and high clouds increase and thicken through the day.

Long term (sat-tue) 11 145 pm.

On Saturday high clouds will be clearing leaving mostly sunny
skies and light offshore flow. Temps similar to Friday. Gradients
will start trending onshore Sunday as the next trough approaches
the west coast. Could see some stratus development south of pt
conception Sunday morning and high clouds will be increasing from
the northwest through the day, but otherwise dry with slightly
cooler temps.

The GFS still shows a weak frontal passage with the trough but the
timing has slipped about 12 hours and now will be Sunday night up
north and Monday in the south. The ECMWF shows a much stronger
downstream ridge that weakens the frontal boundary and basically
keeps it dry south of pt conception. For now will keep pops pretty
much the same but delayed, going with likely rain chances up north
and 20-40 in the south.

Skies will clearing out Monday night with sunny skies Tuesday
along with increasing offshore flow and temperatures. The models
differ with respect to upper support for offshore winds Tuesday
but either way speeds should remain below advisory levels.

Both models in excellent agreement for mid to late next week
showing a strong high pressure ridge over california with a 590dm
center just southwest of pt conception. This combined with light
to moderate offshore flow should lead to a significant warm up for
the remainder of next week. Could be some fire weather concerns
across la ventura counties with low humidities, gusty northeast
winds, and well above normal temperatures.

Aviation 12 0112z.

At 2330z, there was no marine inversion at klax.

Overall high confidence in the 00z TAF package, except for low to
moderate confidence in kprb, klax and klgb where low clouds are
likely to be an issue. There is a 30 percent chance that kprb
remains clear through the period. For the l.A. Coast sites, there
is a 40% chance that conditions remainVFR, or that CIGS dip into
ifr. Timing of CIGS and reduced vsby is also low confidence.

Klax... Low to moderate confidence in the 00z taf. There is a 40%
chance no CIGS form overnight. Cig heights and timing are low
certainty.

Kbur... High confidence inVFR conditions through the 00z taf
period.

Marine 11 733 pm.

For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small
craft advisory (sca) level winds will continue through Wednesday
evening. For Thursday through the weekend, SCA level seas are
likely as a large, long-period, swell moves into the coastal
waters.

For the inner waters north of point sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. There is a 20% chance of SCA level northwest
winds through late this evening, and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. For Thursday through the weekend, SCA level seas are
likely.

For the inner waters south of point conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of sca
level northeast winds on Thursday nearshore from ventura south to
santa monica.

Beaches 11 123 pm.

A high surf advisory will remain in effect for the central coast
through this afternoon as surf heights of 7 to 10 feet continue.

For the west-facing beaches of ventura and los angeles counties,
the latest reports indicate surf heights have decreased.

Therefore, the high surf advisory for these areas has been
cancelled.

An extended period of high surf is likely at central coast
beaches Thursday through Monday. There is a 30-40 percent chance
of very large and potentially damaging surf developing over the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. The latest swell models
build a west-northwest swell to between 18-22 feet off the
central california coast with periods between 19 and 20 seconds.

Swell energy could possibly push into southern california bight
between Sunday and Monday.

If swells develop inline with model guidance, surf of 15-20 feet
with sets up to 25 feet is possible at west and northwest facing
beaches along the central coast between Sunday night and Tuesday.

South of point conception, west facing shores could potentially
see surf between 8-12 feet with sets to 15 feet.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect until noon pst Wednesday for zones
39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pst Wednesday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected on the central
coast through Saturday, possibly expanding to most beaches on
Saturday and continuing through Monday.

Public... Mw
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith
beaches... Hall rat
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 8 mi29 min NNE 13 G 16 57°F 1021.3 hPa40°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 9 mi39 min Calm G 2.9 56°F 57°F1021.6 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 15 mi42 min 58°F7 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 24 mi79 min N 18 G 21 58°F 59°F9 ft1020.7 hPa (+1.4)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 37 mi69 min N 20 G 23 56°F 1019.7 hPa (+1.7)
HRVC1 44 mi39 min 58°F 1020 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 46 mi39 min 60°F9 ft

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA9 mi73 minNW 10 G 1710.00 miFair54°F39°F59%1020.6 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA16 mi78 minNNW 910.00 miFair52°F39°F64%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW11N9NW7SE3E3NW4NE45NE5N8NE4NW9NW106N6N16NW5NW12
G18
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1 day agoCalmSE4E3E5CalmCalmE4CalmE4NE3CalmS5N8CalmNW7CalmN9N7NW8W7W63N6S3
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3Calm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW8NW11NW16NW9NW7NW7CalmCalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:28 AM PST     0.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:56 AM PST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:03 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:37 AM PST     1.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:37 PM PST     -2.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:50 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.70.90.90.70.60.50.60.81.21.61.91.91.61.10.3-0.6-1.5-2.2-2.6-2.6-2.3-1.7-1

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis, California
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Port San Luis
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:28 AM PST     3.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM PST     3.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:03 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:05 PM PST     4.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:51 PM PST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:50 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.63.83.83.63.43.33.33.53.84.24.54.74.54.13.42.61.70.90.50.30.61.11.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.