Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hemby Bridge, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:13PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:56 AM EST (10:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 12:01AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hemby Bridge, NC
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location: 35.11, -80.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 220839
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
339 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
Warm and moist conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend
until a cold front moves into the region on Sunday. Showery
conditions are likely Sunday into Monday before dry high pressure
builds in on Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 330 am: today looks a lot like yesterday, with plenty of
stratus around to start the day in an unseasonably warm air mass.

The center of the 500 mb high will hold its ground as shortwave
energy lifts NE thru the ms valley on the front side of the western
trough. A quasi-stationary sfc front will extend from tx thru the tn
valley and up to the northeast. So with little change in air mass
across the area, expect record or near record highs again today with
some breaks in the clouds this aftn. Forecast soundings show a
little less instability today and a lower cap (around 800-750 mb),
so any showers that manage to develop should be quite shallow.

Overall, the guidance is showing lower pops today than yesterday, so
only will mention slight chc for showers near the tn border, which
will be farthest from the center of the upper high.

Tonight will also be basically a persistence forecast. The low-level
flow looks a little weaker and more veered out of the SW with a lack
of waa. So perhaps a little less high-based stratocu around this
evening. This may allow more ground-based fog and low stratus to
develop overnight. Consensus min temps is a category or two cooler
than today's expected lows, but with elevated dewpts and expected
stratus development, I went on the warmer side of guidance. These
temps look to stay above record high minimums for Friday. One more
thing to note is that the 00z NAM brings a backdoor cold front into
va and northern nc by 12z Friday. It is the lone outlier on this,
and even if it's right, the boundary would just be pushing into
davie county at that time, so I do not have any reflection of that
feature in the grids thru 12z Friday.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 325 am est Thursday: the persistent upper flow pattern will
continue Friday with dominant high pressure off the southeast coast
and height falls over the four corners region of the desert
southwest keeping deep layer southwesterly flow in place over the
south-central conus. At the surface, only the NAM continues to
feature a wedge front flirting with our NW nc piedmont on Friday,
but it continues to waver on the southward movement of the front and
the resultant cold air damming layer. Will make some concessions to
this scenario with a small wind shift and a small area of cooler
temps. Elsewhere temps will remain well above normal with records
forecast at all three main climo sites. Isolated showers will be
possible across the southern mountain upslope areas and the northern
mountains.

The pattern breaks down Friday night through Saturday night as the
southwestern system begins to lift out over the plains into the
western great lakes. Mid levels will remain fairly dry over the
southeast, but sub-850 mb moisture will gradually return on Saturday
and Saturday night, with an atlantic surge from the southeast along
with deepening moisture in the strengthening southwesterly flow from
the gulf. Shower chances ramp up across the mountains Friday night
and spread east across the area Saturday. There may be an isolated
thunderstorm south of i-85 Saturday afternoon, but chance is low.

Precip chances continue to slowly increase Saturday night with the
highest pop west of the french broad valley south into the upstate
and NE ga mountains. Lows will continue to be near record high levels
both nights. Highs are forecast to be just below record levels
Saturday but could reach records especially at clt and gsp if precip
is delayed.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 1210 am Thursday: the going forecast for Sunday, featuring
shower activity becoming numerous, remains pretty much on track. A
moderately forced cold front is still progged to sag into the area,
become parallel to upper flow and stall by Sunday night. Despite
decent wind shear, instability along and ahead of the front is weak,
but there remains a chance for embedded tstms. Also, despite clouds
and showers, we still feel that piedmont MAX temps in the middle 70s
is probable. The medium range model consensus, wpc guidance and
superblend solutions all infer additional wave development along
said boundary Sunday night into Monday and the re-blossoming of
numerous showers.

By Tuesday, still expecting developing low amplitude upper ridging
atop the SE CONUS and building sfc hipres to give us a dry Tuesday
but temperatures "only" 7-9 deg f above climo. Another potent S w
trough is progged to eject from the four corners region toward mid-
week, with great plains cyclogenesis resulting in warm
frontal upglide moisture increasing acrs the SE CONUS by the end of
the day Wednesday.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: mainlyVFR-level stratocu across the area,
with some CIGS around 3000 ft in spots. The lower piedmont has
cleared out, and an area of low MVFR to ifr stratus is developing
across the midlands, expanding north into the clear areas. With the
persistent moist upglide flow, I expect this cloud deck to fill in
across the piedmont thru the pre-dawn hours. CIGS will likely come
in at low MVFR, but lower into ifr by daybreak. These clouds will
then start to lift and scatter around midday or early aftn into a
low-vfr CU deck like the last couple days. Persistent light
southerly flow and the stratus may limit fog development. I will
keep some MVFR vsbys in the forecast, as dewpt depressions are so
low. But widespread fog is not expected this morning. Precip chcs
looks lower today than yesterday, so no mention of vcsh shra with
this set of tafs. Similar conditions will be in place again tonight,
with restrictive CIGS developing toward the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected
to persist through the end of the week. Shower chances will be
highest across the mtns, while periodic cig and vsby restrictions
will be likely through the week, especially during the late night
and morning hours.

Confidence table...

08-14z 14-20z 20-02z 02-06z
kclt high 84% high 86% high 95% high 100%
kgsp high 83% med 77% high 93% med 74%
kavl high 97% high 84% high 100% high 88%
khky high 100% high 86% high 94% med 76%
kgmu high 87% med 79% high 94% med 74%
kand high 82% high 87% high 89% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 54 mi26 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 65°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 77 mi36 min SW 2.9 G 7 63°F 1029.5 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC6 mi63 minSSW 59.00 miOvercast65°F64°F97%1030 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC18 mi64 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F64°F97%1029.5 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC20 mi66 minSSW 710.00 miFair64°F60°F88%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S6S4SW8SW14
G18
S6SW9SW10SW654CalmS3CalmCalm4S544S4S7SW7SW5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW6SW7SW9SW8SW5SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmS3S4S3S3S4S5SW12S7
2 days agoCalmNE3NE4CalmNE3NE3N3NE3Calm33NE5NE4E3CalmNE33NE3NE6CalmE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbia, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.