Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hemby Bridge, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:42PM Saturday June 23, 2018 7:36 PM EDT (23:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 2:14AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hemby Bridge, NC
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location: 35.11, -80.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 232102
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
502 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
Scattered shower and thunderstorms will persist through Monday as
the region remains in a warm and humid airmass. A weak cold front
will drop into the forecast area early next week, bringing more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday. Warmer and more humid air will
return beginning Wednesday, possibly beginning another heat wave.

Near term through Sunday
As of 500 pm edt Saturday: adjustments made to temperatures, pops,
and winds to coincide with latest trends, as the rest of the near
term forecast remains on track.

Previous guidance suggested approaching MCS out of tn ga would
dissipate as it moved into the fa, but the latest runs of hrrr have
coincided nicely with the latest trends, as showers and
thunderstorms have held together and continue to move eastward attm.

The primary threat with these storms are damaging winds as several
reports of trees down wind damage have already been reported across
portions of northeast ga. Do expect this activity to gradually
dissipate over the next few hours as it nears the charlotte-metro
area this evening.

Otherwise, gsp CWA is on the west side of a departing system and the
incoming MCS is east of a short wave embedded in otherwise zonal
flow. Short wave weakens considerably over the mountains this
evening, leaving a general zonal upper flow pattern with some weak
bits of shortwave energy embedded within. Flow over the mountains
creates a broad lee trough that has only limited effects on surface
winds, making them somewhat more northwesterly over the mountains.

850mb winds remain somewhat elevated today and, with good mixing,
gusts to 25kts this afternoon will again occur until sunset.

With little change to surface flow, dewpoints and convective
instability (albeit it moderate) remain in place for Sunday, with
afternoon thunderstorms possible, with some help from the small
short waves. Wind shear will relax, but sufficient instability will
exist for some low-end severe wind gusts.

Temperatures will be close to recent history, and continue to run 5
or so degrees above normal.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
As of 230 pm edt Saturday: a bit of a messy forecast during this
part of the cycle. As we move through Sunday night the nam, gfs
and the european models were showing multiple waves embedded in the
fast flow, moving through our area. Meanwhile some semblance of a
combination of the lee side trough and another wind shift to the
north, tries to then drive a weak surface front to near the south
carolina and north carolina state line by Monday morning. The models
are insistent for pockets of QPF Sunday night, although highest pops
will be pulled back to the mountains by Monday morning.

The flow aloft will be turning w-nw to NW on Monday, while a parade
of energy lobes ride the mean flow into our rather soupy airmass.

The weak front, as it were, drifts south by Monday evening. The
european and NAM depict a picture of chance pops across the entire
region, and the GFS hits our southern forecast area (fa) and the
mountains with greater QPF values. Considering much of this will
depend on meso scale interactions, combined with the weak surface
front, at this point will keep pops going Monday and Monday
night.

By Tuesday the weak surface front should be south of our area, while
high pressure aloft builds from alabama north into kentucky. Our
heights aloft will be on the increase, but lobes of energy are still
rolling down into our region in the nwly flow aloft. Also an east to
southeast moist upslope component tries to commence Tuesday. Rather
interesting the guide is supporting an uptick in pops, especially in
our upslope east facing mountain slopes. We have followed along,
with a lower confidence level.

We kept temperatures very warm in the piedmont Monday, with some
heat indices of 100 in the far south. We then pulled back Tuesday
with a wedge-like configuration and clouds.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 300 am sat: the backdoor front will become more or less
stationary Tuesday, as the high pressure which drove it into our
area moves off the east coast. Elevated pops are expected over the
southern half of the cwfa as well as the central western nc mtns tue
and Tue night. The front more or less washes out in place. Low-level
flow will veer around to southerly Tuesday night into Wednesday in
response to the shifting high as well as the low pressure system
moving move across the great lakes. That system stands to enhance
otherwise diurnally forced convective coverage for our area on
Wednesday, though 0-6km shear is still not especially concerning
for a severe threat. Mainly diurnal pops are expected Thu and fri.

Briefly cooler temps still are expected for Tuesday, about a
category below normal. From there, however, temps trend upward:
back to normal Wednesday, then a few degrees above normal thu-fri
under the influence of another deep ridge. Afternoon heat indices
may creep upward of 100, though as mentioned for the short term,
we've attempted to account for some mixing and therefore values
are expected to remain below advisory criteria. The heat currently
looks to continue into next weekend, so cumulative effects may
need to be considered closer to the event.

Aviation 21z Saturday through Thursday
At kclt and elsewhere: with limited instability, little
forcing, and some capping, somewhat lower chances of afternoon
thunder exists today outside of the mountains. Chances for
convection are below worth mentioning at all aerodromes except kavl.

Convective complex from the west is expect to approach the western
mountains around 00z, but weaken as it does so, with only vcsh
showers and maybe a little thunder. After 18z on Sunday, a more
diurnal pattern to convective activity is expected to resume with
some chances for trw. Mvr to ifr overcast this morning that was
seen this morning, is not expected to recur Sunday morning due to
some limiting of overnight low temperatures due to cloudiness aloft.

850mb winds of 20 to 25kts and good mixing of the bl to 5000 ft will
give gusts at all stations from 18z to 00z, plus or minus an hour.

Winds will be persistently southwesterly in the piedmont to
northwesterly in the mountains.

Outlook: a fairly typical summer pattern is expected today and
Sunday, with mainly scattered afternoon evening thunderstorms, and
patchy morning fog and low stratus in locations with wet ground
and or the mountain valleys. A slow-moving or stalled front will
bring better chances for convection and restrictions early next week.

Confidence table...

21-03z 03-09z 09-15z 15-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 85% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 54 mi67 min WSW 8.9 G 17 91°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 77 mi77 min WSW 12 G 16 86°F 1011.2 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC6 mi44 minWSW 1210.00 miFair89°F64°F45%1010.9 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC18 mi45 minWSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F68°F52%1010.6 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC20 mi47 minWSW 810.00 miClear90°F64°F43%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10SW8SW4SW15SW7SW7SW8SW8SW8SW5SW5S6SW10
G18
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G19
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1 day agoSW4SW7SW9SW7W7SW8W6SW5SW4SW5SW5SW5SW7SW9SW4SW106
G15
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G24
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3SW4W4W4W4W4SW3W4SW3Calm3CalmSW5NW43SW7NW9W10
G16
W7W8SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbia, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.