Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hemby Bridge, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:15PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 2:15 PM EST (19:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:29PMMoonset 2:47AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hemby Bridge, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 35.11, -80.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kgsp 181735
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1235 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
Dry high pressure will linger over the region through midweek.

Another low pressure system is then expected to develop to our west
and bring widespread precipitation to the region for Thursday and
Friday. As the low moves north of the forecast area on Saturday,
drying high pressure will return for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1227 pm est Tuesday: forecast in good shape at midday. Plenty
of bright sunshine expected through the afternoon. Temp trends
look good.

Otherwise, another very quiet day in store across the area. Ridging
in the center of the country will continue to push east as the
rockies trough deepens. Surface high over the great lakes will
push a dry front in this morning, which will knock temperatures
back down to seasonal normals. However, given that the forecast for
yesterday was several degrees too cool, have opted to err on the
warm side. Definitely some bust potential especially in the NW nc
piedmont depending on where the front ends up and how quickly the
cooler air spills in. Additionally, with the gradient tightening
along the mountains and a bit of a shortwave ejecting out of the
mid-south ahead of the former-rockies-now-tx cutoff upper low,
could see a few more high clouds across the northern tier which
could help moderate temperatures as well. Across southern zones,
though, confidence is higher in upper 50s, flirting with 60,
and again a really beautiful day.

High pressure will be settling overhead tonight with seasonal
temperatures expected, though we should start seeing an increase
in cloudiness from the south toward the end of the period as some
upper moisture begins to stream in from the gulf. GFS slightly more
aggressive than other guidance on bringing in a slug of moisture
off the atlantic as low-level flow swings around to the southeast,
which if that comes to fruition might keep overnight lows a little
warmer than forecast.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
As of 230 am tue: no major changes to thinking for the late-week
system. High pressure situated over the east coast will bring
settled conditions for Wednesday. MAX temps will fall back a few
degrees as heights bottom out over the area. Over the course of
the day, as a deep trough digs into the lower mississippi valley,
increasingly moist southerly flow will occur over the high, leading
to expanding cloud cover thru early Thursday. Pops slowly begin
to ramp up with the usual blue ridge enhancement. Min temps are
now expected to remain above freezing in all zones, so only liquid
precip is mentioned; precip probably will start after temps have had
a chance to warm a bit anyway. In-situ cad is expected to develop
as precip intensifies and expands across the area Thursday, but
with the airmass not being particularly dry, sfc temps should be
affected more by the cloud cover than by diabatic cooling. Maxes
remain at or above normal. Lapse rates above the cad inversion
are not especially strong and while a rumble of thunder from an
elevated cell would not be out of the question, chances are too
low to mention.

Some warm upglide will continue into Thursday night, but the upper
low will swing toward the atlantic coast, and the forcing becomes
more dynamic. A lull in precip may very well occur overnight within
the dry slot, but this is difficult to time. Slight differences
in the timing of the low smear out any lull that individual
models may suggest. Anyway, wraparound precip likely eventually
return to the area very late in the night if not during the day
Friday. Pops do diminish a bit with time as the system works east,
but we don't want to drop them too quickly with small amounts of
sfc-based instability possibly forming underneath the low. The
depicted SBCAPE is shallow and unimpressive, especially in the
nc piedmont where the inversion may last into the afternoon. Max
temps will rebound slightly in most areas as cad breaks down.

Also Friday, as cold advection gears up across the mountains, snow
levels will fall, reaching the valley floors by late evening. In
the higher elevations sfc temps fall fast enough to support snow at
the ground while saturation is still present through a deep layer,
and those profiles look good for snow crystal growth. Namely,
a crosshair signature is seen on bufkit profiles as moisture and
lift combine at sufficiently cold temperatures. So some accumulation
is expected at these higher elevations and preliminary QPF and slr
guidance suggest totals could exceed 2 inches there. Winds also look
to be howling late Friday and Friday night in the same areas, with
gusts fcst to approach 40 mph. Wind chills will fall into the single
digits in spots. Some combination of these hazards could eventually
warrant winter wx advisory issuance if fcst trends hold up.

Long term Saturday through Monday
As of 120 am Tuesday: starting 12z Saturday. The big low and deep
500mb trough moves east and NE of our region Saturday with drier air
moving in from the west with high pressure. This high pressure will
be centered over the carolinas Saturday night and move over the
atlantic on Sunday. The overall flow pattern on 500mb is zonal from
late Saturday through Monday. A shortwave in this flow will have
axis from minnesota to texas midday Sunday as it heads toward our
region. This brings a weak cold front with very little moisture. The
gfs has almost no moisture and is baster bringing the front and axis
of trough across Sunday night. The ec has it arriving near daybreak
Monday with all moisture drying up as it crosses the mountains. High
pressure will at least briefly be in control through Monday night as
upper flow becomes more amplified with deep trough developing over
the far west. The system associated with this deep trough will not
reach our region until around Thursday of next week. Temperatures on
Saturday a bit cool with the departing trough, but rise to near
normal for the remainder of the extended period.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
At kclt and elsewhere:VFR through the period at most sites, with
passing cirrus overhead and thickening mid-level clouds starting
midday Wednesday. A low cloud ceiling off the atlantic will
approach kclt late in the afternoon on Wednesday, with a bkn
ceiling arriving at the MVFR level starting around sunset.

Guidance shows a light wind... Due east for several hours... So
have elected to stay ene until the mid late afternoon Wednesday,
when direction veers to ese.

Outlook: restrictions will gradually increase late Wednesday as
a wet low pressure system approaches. Rain and restrictions will
continue Thursday into Friday, with improving conditions for
the weekend.

Confidence table...

17-23z 23-05z 05-11z 11-12z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 54 mi45 min Calm G 8.9 58°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 77 mi55 min SSW 5.1 G 6 56°F 1019.3 hPa

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC6 mi22 minESE 310.00 miFair56°F27°F33%1020.7 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC18 mi23 minENE 510.00 miA Few Clouds58°F21°F25%1019.7 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC20 mi25 minE 510.00 miFair57°F21°F25%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hr5W5W3CalmW3W3SW4CalmW3NW5W4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmN4SW5NE4NE8NE73NE4SE3
1 day agoW11
G15
W7W8W5W3W5NW5W3W5W3W6W6W4W4SW4SW7SW5SW6SW3NW5W7W7W5NW8
2 days agoSW3SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW7SW10SW6SW9W9W9W11W7W11W5SW8SW10SW11SW11W9W12

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Columbia, SC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.