Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:59PM Friday February 23, 2018 3:32 PM EST (20:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:35AMMoonset 12:46AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 255 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight, decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers likely.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231926
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
226 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
A front stalled just to the south will lift back north tonight.

High pressure will continue offshore over the weekend with
continued very warm temperatures. A cold front will move through
the area Sunday night into early Monday, followed by high
pressure Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system will impact the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 215 pm Friday... Low clouds holding on near water where
cooler sst limiting mixing with pc msunny skies inland.

Overnight the ill defined front to the S will dissipate or lift
n with light ssw flow developing. Winds will be light enuf for
some fog st to grad spread inland from water. Models show some
shra skirting the coast overnight but bulk appear to stay
offshore... Lowered and shrunk area of shra near imd cst.

Guidance similar with lows mainly cpl dgrs either side of 55
most spots... Bit cooler NE coast.

Short term Saturday
As of 215 pm Friday... Region will be in warm sector again sat
with ssw flow around offshore high pres. Think low clouds and
fog that forms tonight shld erode quickly with sct to bkn cu
rest of the day. Kept small pop in ERN tier early with no pop in
the aftn with limited moisture. Very mild with highs mainly 75
to 80 over land and lower 70s beaches.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
As of 325 am Friday... A record-breaking warm weekend will be
following by a high threat of showers Sunday night into Monday
night. High pressure will rebuild over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday before another system brings a threat of rain by
Wednesday night.

Saturday night and Sunday... Deep moisture will increase from
the south and west and precipitable waters approach 1.5 inches
ahead of slow-moving frontal system over the weekend as upper
level ridge gradually weakens offshore. This will lead to a
better chance pop for Sunday. The big story for the weekend
will be the warm southwest flow leading to more record-breaking
warm temperatures. Sunday looks especially warm as some inland
locations could reach the mid 80s.

Sunday night through Monday night... Latest GFS and ecmwf
continue the wet trend for Sunday night and especially Monday,
when the coverage of showers should be the greatest. Some timing
difference with the ECMWF a bit slower, but have raised pops to
likely for Monday, following high chance pops for Sunday night.

The rain should clear out Monday night, a bit later on the
ecmwf. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday behind the cold
front with highs generally in the low mid 60s with some upper
50s on the northern outer banks. These readings are still about
8-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Dry high pressure will build behind the
exiting system Tuesday into Wednesday. The airmass behind the
front is not overly cold and more of pacific origin. As a
result, highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight
lows in the 40s.

Wednesday night and Thursday... A strong area of low pressure
will move from the mississippi valley into the ohio valley
pulling a warm front north across eastern nc Wednesday night,
followed by a decent cold front later on Thursday. This will
lead to a high chance of showers for this period.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
Short term through Sat ...

as of 1215 pm Friday... Conditions rapidly becomingVFR over taf
sites as low clouds lift and sct out. MainlyVFR thru the
evening with poss a brief MVFR CIGS next cpl hrs. Overnight bulk
of guidance again indicates some fog st forming. With low lvl
flow becoming SW not sure if fog will be as widespread but for
now will show ifr late tonight. Whatever fog stratus forms
tonight will erode quickly Sat morn with enhanced mixing in
well defined warm sector leading toVFR mid late morn thru
aftn.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday ...

as of 345 am Thursday... Some periods of sub-vfr conditions,
likely MVFR, are expected Sunday into Monday as an approaching
frontal system will bring more numerous showers, especially
behind the cold front on Monday. Skies should clear late Monday
night with dry high pressure andVFR conditions for Tuesday.

Marine
Short term through Sat ...

as of 215 pm Friday... Will once again have to deal with areas of
fog developing overnight. Always hard to predict how dense fog
will be so not issuing a dense fog advisory with this pkg.

Light variable winds this evening will become more SW overnight
as high pres offshore becomes dominant feature as weak front to
the S dissipates or shifts n. On Sat the grdnt will tighten a
bit with ssw winds reaching solid 15 kts most wtrs with some
gusts to 20 kts.

Ene swell will keep seas in the 3 to 5 foot central and n
tonight and 2 to 4 feet s. On Sat the increasing SW winds will
keep seas 3 to 5 feet central wtrs and mostly 2 to 4 feet
elsewhere.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday ...

as of 345 am Friday... With high pressure offshore, winds
Saturday night should be SW at 10-20 knots with seas of 3-5
feet. A 24-hour window of small craft advisory are likely Sunday
morning into Monday morning with SW winds of 15-25 knots south
of oregon inlet with seas as high as 6-7 feet per the latest
swan nwps model. Winds veer to N NE behind the cold front Monday
and will run 10-20 knots before diminishing on Tuesday.

Climate
Record high temps for 02 24 (Saturday)
location temp year
new bern 84 1962 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 76 2017 (khse asos)
greenville 81 1985 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 77 1996 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 84 1930 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 86 1982 (knca asos)
record high temps for 02 25 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 80 2017 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 74 2017 (khse asos)
greenville 81 2017 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 76 2017 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 84 1930 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 78 2017 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Ctc
aviation... Rf ctc
marine... Rf ctc
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi45 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 59°F 60°F1029.6 hPa
41063 23 mi153 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 72°F1030.1 hPa (-2.6)
41025 - Diamond Shoals 32 mi33 min Calm G 1.9 67°F 73°F1029.8 hPa (-2.2)64°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi33 min NE 6 G 6 1029.8 hPa (-2.2)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi45 min SE 8 G 9.9 63°F 60°F1029.6 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi42 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F57°F81%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW45SW5S7S6S5SW3SW3SW5W3N5N4N6N8N8N86--4NE4SE6SE6S3N5
1 day agoSW6SW7SW6SW5S7S6SW5S6SW6W4W6CalmCalmCalmW7SW5SW5SW4SW5SW7SW8SW5SW6SW5
2 days agoS10S7S6S7S8S6S6S4S6SW7S6S3S3SW3CalmS4SW5SW4SW6SW55SW8SW7SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:46 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:47 AM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:02 PM EST     0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:51 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.110.90.60.40.20.20.20.30.40.60.80.90.80.70.50.20.100.10.20.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:43 AM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:45 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:05 PM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:14 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.11.91.61.10.60.30.20.30.50.91.31.61.71.71.410.60.20.10.10.40.81.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.