Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:18PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:54 AM EDT (10:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:12AMMoonset 6:38PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 306 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 220701
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
301 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions. A weak cold front will move into the region
early next week and become stationary.

Near term through today
As of 3 am sat... Heat and humidity will continue again with
heat index values 105-109 degrees. Low level thickness values
and 850mb temps around 20c support highs in the mid 90s inland
and upper 80s low 90s along the coast. Another heat advisory
today for all of the forecast area except for outer banks hyde
county. Isolated storms will be possible again during the
afternoon and evening, but think the best chance will be west of
highway 17 late, with ridge suppressing convection.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am sat... QPF from the ECMWF and nam12 have dry
conditions from 00-06z. However, the GFS is very aggressive in
tracking a vort along the nc va line overnight and pushing a
convective complex down through the forecast area. Mcss have
moved southeast last night and again tonight through the ohio
valley into the mid- atlantic. HPC qpf tracks another mcs
tonight along a similar path tonight, passing just north of our
northern counties. GFS therefore looks overdone, but will not
make any changes to pops tonight, keeping slight chance going
along coastal plain and northern tier through 04z, then dry for
the remainder of the night. Yet another warm, muggy night with
lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 3 am sat... No significant changes to the forecast. One
more oppressively hot day Sunday then a little cooler and wetter
for the early part of the week. May dry a bit mid week as front
tries to push S of region briefly, with a return northward and
more unsettled weather later in the week.

Sunday through Sunday night... Dry through most of this period
with the main thunderstorm activity well north across the mid
atlantic, with a possible mcs. Beyond an isolated sea breeze
storm Sunday afternoon, if we were to see anything organized the
best chance would be across the far north. Continued low chance
pops across the far north to account for this as these areas
could be on the outer edges of a dying mcs. We remain in a
marginal risk for severe weather across the far north. Limiting
factor remains the convection making it this far south.

Models cont to show low level thicknesses around 1435-1440
meters Sunday. This will support MAX temps easily reaching the
mid 90s one last day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s,
critical heat index values AOA 105 degrees are expected once
again Sunday afternoon.

Forecast MAX temps will generally be below record highs at most
sites during period. See climate section below for details.

Monday through Tuesday... Upper level heights will lower in the
east Monday, as a massive upper level high over arkansas today
retreats west toward the four corners area of the southwest us.

The result for us will be a little cooler and unsettled
weather. On Monday a cold front will approach and while not as
hot as this weekend, temps will again climb into the 90s one
more day with the southwest flow ahead of the front... With heat
index values poss flirting with 105 again inland. The front
looks to move slowly SE into the region later tue, bringing the
entire area a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday... Front mentioned above should stall
near SRN sections Wed keeping threat of shra and storms these
areas with less chc across the n. The front lifts back N of
region Thursday and Friday with a return to slightly better
chances for thunderstorms each day, especially during the peak
heating of the day. Highs mostly 80s Wed then could see around
90 low 90s again inland late week.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1 am sat... PredVFR conditions expected through the
period. Light SW winds 5-10 knots this morning, increasing to
10-15 knots with gusts 15-20 knots this afternoon. Isolated
storms possible again in the afternoon. Winds diminish back to
5-10 knots Sat night. Any convection will dissipate in the
evening.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 am sat...VFR expected through the weekend with only
isold threat of convection. Cont mainlyVFR Mon thru wed
however will have better coverage of shra tsra from time to time
resulting in a few pds of subVFR. Weak front drops thru later
tue and stalls over southern sections wed... Could see some
lower CIGS assoc with the front and some late night fog.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of 3 am sat... High pressure will continue offshore with
troughing inland through the period continuing the S to SW flow.

Latest obs show 10-20 kt and seas 2-3 ft north and 3-5 ft
south. Winds in the pamlico sound and at diamond buoy have been
steadily gusting near to 25 knots so will go ahead and begin
small craft advisory in those zones. Made no changes to the
beginning time of SCA for the other marine zones.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 am sat... Ssw winds of 15 to 25 kts will cont Sunday
thru Mon between offshore high pres and front trf to the w.

These winds will lead to seas of mainly 5 to 6 feet outer
central and SRN wtrs. Added SRN wtrs to SCA starting early
Sunday into Sunday evening. Also extended SCA for central wtrs
thru Mon evening per ocnl gusts AOA 25 kts and 6 ft seas. As
front gets closer later Mon night winds and seas will slowly
subside. The front will drop thru NRN half of region later tue
into Tue night then stall and weaken a bit Wed over SRN tier.

Expect NRN wtrs will see a period of light onshore E to ne
winds behind front Tue night into Wed while SRN tier will cont
with mainly S to SW winds but shld be light. Seas will subside
to 2 to 3 feet all wtrs wed.

Climate
Record MAX temps for 07 22 (sat)
location temp year
new bern 106 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1987 (khse asos)
greenville 102 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 100 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 105 1932 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 99 2011 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 23 (sun)
location temp year
new bern 100 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1972 (khse asos)
greenville 103 1932 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 103 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 24 (mon)
location temp year
new bern 99 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 90 2016 (khse asos)
greenville 99 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1999 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 101 1952 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.

Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for ncz095-098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Sunday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Monday for amz156.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 9 pm edt Sunday for amz158.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Rf eh
aviation... Hsa rf
marine... Hsa rf
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi55 min SW 9.9 G 13 77°F 78°F1014.9 hPa (-0.3)
41025 - Diamond Shoals 32 mi65 min WSW 19 G 23 82°F 84°F5 ft1014.8 hPa (+0.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi55 min WSW 9.9 G 13 80°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.0)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi55 min WSW 4.1 G 9.9 80°F 80°F1014.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi64 minWSW 910.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW8SW7SW7SW7SW6SW6SW10SW9SW10SW7SW11SW9SW10SW9SW8SW8SW9SW10W8W8W5SW8SW9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalm33SE7SE6SW5SW5SW5S8SW6SW5SW5SW5SW8SW8SW7SW7SW6W5SW5W4SW4
2 days agoW3NW434SW6S5S6S5S6S6S7S8S6S6S5SW6SW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:19 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:44 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2000.10.30.60.910.90.70.50.2-0-0.1-0.100.30.71.11.31.31.210.6

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:17 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:21 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.100.40.91.522.32.21.81.30.60.1-0.1-0.10.30.91.62.32.72.82.521.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.