Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bridgeton, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:27PM Saturday June 24, 2017 10:03 AM EDT (14:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:34AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 629 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Today..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Tstms, showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft early, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. Showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bridgeton, NC
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location: 35.12, -77.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241049
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
649 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
A tropical airmass will interact with a slow moving cold front
impacting eastern nc this weekend. The front will meander just
off the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will build in
from the west Wednesday through late next week.

Near term today
As of 650 am sat... Latest sfc analysis shows 994mb low over
southern quebec with attendant cold front extending down into
the mid-atlantic and deep south, with the remnants of cindy over
md pa. The remnants of cindy will turn into an open wave and
remain well north of the area today, as frontal boundary moves
eastward.

Latest radar imagery shows weakening showers moving into the
coastal plain this morning. Could see an isolated shower sprinkle
in the next hour or two, but the high res models have handled
this very well drying up before making it into the forecast
area. SPC continues to outlook the region in a marginal risk
for severe storms today. Scattered showers and storms expected
this afternoon and evening, initially triggered by the seabreeze
with better forcing late. Pre-frontal trough and increasing
mid upr winds will lead to marginal deep layer shear of 25-35 kt
which may support a few strong storms this afternoon and
evening, with marginally severe hail and strong downburst winds.

Hrrr model is a bit slower to develop convection this
afternoon, while the nssl WRF is much quicker developing robust
organized convection. Increased pops slightly from previous
forecast based on high res models. Low level thickness values
support highs in the mid 80s to low 90s today, combined with
dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices will climb to or just above
100 degrees. Breezy SW winds continue this morning, strongest
along the coast with gusts up to 35-40 mph. Expect winds to
diminish a bit late this morning and afternoon.

Short term tonight
As of 315 am sat... Deep moisture will overspread the region
tonight as tropical airmass interacts with an approaching
frontal boundary. Front is progged to push into the coastal
plain late tonight and early Sun morning.

Expect instability to wane with loss of heating, but forecast
soundings still show mu CAPE values around 1500 j kg, 30-40kt
0-6km bulk shear overnight. Threat for isolated strong storms
with gusty winds will continue overnight, but think the main
threat will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding. Localized flash flooding will be possible
tonight with pwats 2.25-2.5", warm cloud layer upwards of
14,000 ft, and storm motions nearly parallel to the upper level
flow. These factors will lead to very efficient rain processes,
and training of storms. Storm total rainfall 0.5-1.5" with
higher amounts possible, at this time expect higher totals along
the coast.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 340 am Saturday... After wet weather Sunday and scattered
showers Monday and Tuesday, cooler and much drier air will
spread into eastern nc from Wednesday into next weekend.

Sunday... A frontal boundary combined with deep moisture
(precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches) will lead to a
wet day along the coast as low-level moisture transport and
deep omega is maximized. With the cold front across the central
cwa, expect a sharp precip moisture gradient, thus categorical
pops on the coast tapering back to low chance over the coastal
plains. Still enough instability around Sunday morning for a few
strong storms with capes around 1000 j kg near the coast.

Despite a good deal of cloud cover, high temperatures should
reach the mid upper 80s in most areas Sunday.

Sunday night through Tuesday... As the frontal boundary and
associated deeper moisture lingers near the coast, will have a
slight to low chance pop along the coast Sunday night into
Monday night. Precipitation will be enhanced inland as well on
Tuesday as a strong mid-level shortwave dives southeast across
the carolinas and virginia.

Tuesday night through Friday... Strong high pressure will move
from the ohio valley Tuesday night to off the coast by Friday.

This high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass with lower
humidities and cooler low temperatures. Lows Wednesday morning
will range from the upper 50s inland to low mid 60s coast with
highs Wednesday upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures quickly
warm however as southwest winds return and highs return to the
upper 80s for late week and lows moderate into the muggy 70s
once again by Friday.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 650 am sat... Mix ofVFR and MVFR this morning across the
sites, with scattered to broken ceilings around 2 kft. SW wind
gusts to around 20 kt today. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected to develop this afternoon and tonight. Some
strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible
this afternoon and tonight. Sub-vfr conditions expected in
convection, and expect pred sub-vfr to develop tonight.

Long term Sunday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Saturday... Periods of sub-vfr ceilings and vsbys
may occur Sunday, particularly at kewn and koaj as axis of deep
moisture impacts the region. Think most of the rainfall from
Sunday afternoon through Monday night will be east of the taf
sites andVFR should prevail. Scattered thunderstorms may
produce scattered MVFR ceilings vsbys Tuesday, but will not be
widespread.VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as high pressure builds in. As usual, patchy late night early
morning fog will be possible, especially in areas that receive
rainfall.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 650 am sat... Strong winds and rough seas continue today.

Latest obs show SW winds 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt and seas 4-8
ft. A cold front will slowly move eastward today and tonight,
pushing into eastern nc late tonight and early Sunday. Sca
continues for the albemarle sound, alligator river, inland
rivers and northern waters through this afternoon, and pamlico
sound and waters south of oregon inlet through late tonight and
Sunday morning. Gusty winds 20-30 kt will continue through this
morning, diminishing to 15-25 kt this afternoon. Could see seas
peaking as high as 5-9 feet, highest across the outer central
waters. Winds and seas slowly subsiding overnight and Sunday
morning. SW winds 15-25 kt tonight, with seas subsiding to 4-7
feet south of oregon inlet. Winds become more wsw W early Sunday
morning. Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
evening, becoming more widespread tonight. Some strong storms
with gusty winds and frequent lightning possible.

Long term Sunday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Saturday... Any small craft advisory level seas
should subside fairly quickly on Sunday morning and drop to 2-4
feet during the afternoon. Winds Monday into Tuesday will be
light at 10 knots or less and swing from N on Monday to S Monday
night ahead of strong cold front. Expect winds to become
northerly Tuesday through Wednesday behind cold front. Models
still not indicate a real strong surge behind the front as winds
will generally be N NE at around 10 knots with seas at 2-4 feet.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 3 am sat... Minor coastal flooding will be possible at
times of high tide through the weekend. Moderate threat of rip
currents north of CAPE hatteras, and high threat south of cape
hatteras.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for amz130-
131-136-137.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Sunday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for amz150.

Synopsis... Ctc cqd
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc cqd
marine... Ctc cqd
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi45 min SW 8.9 G 16 82°F 77°F1013.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi63 min SW 15 G 21 81°F 1013.7 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC3 mi69 minSW 15 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F75°F77%1013.7 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi69 minWSW 17 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F73°F72%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW6SW5W5SW7W7W5W5W5CalmS5SW3SW4SW5SW3SW4SW4S4SW3SW6SW5SW4SW5SW7SW9
2 days agoW8W8W7SW5W10
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SW9S9S9S9S7S7S8SW7SW5SW4SW6SW4SW4SW3CalmSW4W4SW34

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:57 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:39 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:04 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.90.2-0.2-0.4-0.20.41.11.72.22.221.50.80.2-0.2-0.4-0.10.41.222.52.82.6

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:40 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:23 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:48 PM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.10.1-0.4-0.5-0.10.91.92.83.33.32.81.910.1-0.4-0.5-00.92.13.23.94.13.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.