Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bridgeton, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:59PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:36 AM EST (14:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 646 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming variable and diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop this afternoon. Rain likely early this morning, then a chance of rain late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft, then around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bridgeton, NC
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location: 35.12, -77.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231121
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
621 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front off the coast today, is expected to lift
back to the north across the area as a warm front late today and
tonight resulting in continued unsettled weather. A strong cold
front will cross the region Sunday. High pressure will build in
from the northwest early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 620 am Saturday... Brisk northeast winds, areas of light
rain drizzle and widespread low clouds continue across eastern
nc this morning in a cad surface pressure pattern. Latest sfc
analysis shows a stationary front stalled southeast of the area
with high pressure ridging in from the north. Expect little
change in the sensible weather today with areas of light
rain drizzle continuing. The heaviest rain amounts are expected
across the northern portion of the area. Could see some drying
across the extreme southwest portion of the area during the
afternoon and will decrease pops to chance there. The guidance
is also indicating the potential for at least patchy fog this
afternoon ahead of the advancing warm front. High temperatures
will be greatly influenced by the northward progress of the
aforementioned warm front, which is forecast to be located along
or just inland from the coast at 00z. Thus coastal locations
should see their temps rise to around 60 degrees, while the
coastal plain region struggles to break 50.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 325 am Saturday... The warm front will continue to lift
north across the region tonight. Areas of light rain, drizzle
and fog will continue through the evening, then should taper off
after midnight as eastern nc gets into the warm sector with
developing southerly winds resulting in temps rising throughout
the night. Thus low temps will occur in the evening.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 230 am sat...

Sunday... Cold front will cross late Sunday. All guidance cont
to show very warm temps ahead of front with mid to poss upper
70s inland with beaches mid 60s to low 70s. Moisture looks
limited assoc with the FROPA so cont 30 pops and light rainfall
amounts. Given warm temps most mdls show some weak instab and
added isold aftn tsra for mainly highway 17 corridor. It will
become windy Sunday with SW winds of 15-25 mph, with some gusts
up to 30-35 mph.

Sunday night through tue... Dry high pres builds in thru Tue with
temps not far from normal with highs lower 50s NE to around 60 lower
60s SW Mon and tue. NW winds Monday will remain around 10-15 mph
with a few higher gusts up to 20-25 mph; otherwise winds throughout
the period will be fairly light.

Wed and fri... Models continue to differ this period as next
frontal system impacts the area. The GFS is the wetter solution,
generating multiple southern stream shortwave troughs over the
southern plains and dragging a couple systems over the area
during the second half of the week. The ECMWF and canadian are
much drier, keeping more unsettled weather pinned along the gulf
coast with high pressure remaining in control. Still plenty of
uncertainty this period but kept pops only in chc range wed
slight chc to low chc for thu. Low pres may develop ahead of
short wave late in week into the weekend but again confidence
quite low so just chc pops fri. Highs will be in the low mid
50s NE to upr 50s lower 60s sw.

Aviation 11z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 620 am Saturday... High confidence in mainly ifr
conditions through the TAF period. Cad surface pressure pattern
with widespread ifr ceilings and areas of light rain and drizzle
producing occasional MVFR to ifr visibilities. Expect these
conditions to prevail through the evening hours with some areas
of dense fog possible, then a warm front should lift north
through the area resulting in a decrease in precipitation after
midnight. The aviation guidance hangs on to ifr ceilings and
MVFR to ifr visibilities all night even in the warm sector
behind the warm front though some improvement in conditions to
MVFR would be possible after 6z as southerly flow develops.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 230 am sat... Expect sct shra and maybe and isold tsra sun
as cold front crosses. Shld see mainlyVFR with just brief sub
vfr. Gusty SW winds expected Sunday with gusts 25 to 30 knots
possible. High confidence inVFR Sun night dominating through
Tuesday as dry high pres builds in from nw. Now looks like just
very small threat of shra Wed so likely cont to seeVFR
dominate.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 620 am Saturday... No changes to previous thinking.

Continue the sca's for the pamlico sound and the waters south of
oregon inlet. Cad surface pressure was observed this morning
with high pressure ridging in from the north and a stationary
front southeast of the waters. NE winds are currently 20-30 kt
with seas 4-7 ft. Winds are peaking early this morning and will
begin to diminish to 15-20 kt after 12z while veering to E and
se in the afternoon north of CAPE lookout. Elevated seas will
gradually diminish below 6 ft by early this evening. Tonight
winds will continue to veer to the S and SW as a warm front
lifts north through the waters. Speeds will increase from 10-15
kt in the evening to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt toward
dawn. Seas will be 3-5 ft overnight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 230 am sat... Sw winds ramp up to 20 to 30 kts Sunday ahead
of cold front with seas building 6 to 9 feet. A few gusts up to
35 knots are possible for outer waters.

After front crosses winds become NW 15 to 25 kts Sun night thru
early Mon then weaken to wnw around 15 kts late mon. Seas will grad
subside below 6 ft by Monday afternoon. Very light winds tue
with high over region and seas will drop to 1 to 3 ft. Very low
confidence on winds for Wed with GFS showing S winds and ecmwf
and canadian moderate nne winds. Will lean closer to ECMWF but
lower speeds a bit with seas mainly 2 to 4 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for amz152-
154.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz156-
158.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz135.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Rf ms
aviation... Rf jme
marine... Rf jme


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi42 min NNE 9.9 G 14 51°F 53°F1025.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi36 min NNE 18 G 20 1024.3 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC3 mi42 minNNE 51.25 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F46°F100%1026.1 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi42 minNE 133.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F51°F97%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13
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NE15NE10NE9N13NE14NE10NE10NE10N11NE9NE10NE10NE11NE9NE11NE11NE11NE10NE7NE10NE9NE6NE5
1 day agoW7W7W9
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W6W12W9W7W6W9W4NW5NW4NW3N4CalmS3N5NE8NE6NE8NE10NE11NE8NE11
2 days agoE6NE5E6E5E4NE3E4S3N4N3NW4NW6NW5NW4W3S5SW4W5W4W3S5S4W4SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 05:52 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:43 AM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:10 PM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.91.40.70.1-0.3-0.4-0.20.411.72.12.21.91.50.90.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.20.81.52

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:14 AM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:08 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.20.80.40.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.20.71.11.31.31.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.