Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buxton, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 651 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 25 kt early this afternoon, then increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A slight chance of tstms this morning. Showers until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds, decreasing to 5 seconds after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buxton, NC
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location: 35.13, -75.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211059
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
659 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will lift north across the area this morning and
push a cold front through this afternoon. Another, mainly dry
cold front will push across the area late Friday. High pressure
will build into the area this weekend. A storm system is
expected to impact the region early to mid next week.

Near term today
As of 7 am thu... Latest sfc analysis shows surface low moving
north through the coastal plain. The low will continue to
quickly lift north through the area this morning and pushing
northward into southern va by early afternoon, and pushing a
cold front through the area. A few meso-lows have formed over
the waters this morning, east of the main low center. Latest
radar imagery shows an organized area of showers and isolated
embedded tstms moving just east of CAPE lookout this morning.

High res guidance is in pretty good agreement showing this band
of showers pushing nne across the area through 16z. Best precip
chances for the next few hours will be across the east northeast
portions of the area. Bulk of instability remains offshore but
could be enough to support isolated storms east of the low along
the coast. Locally heavy rain will be possible for a few hours
this morning, which could lead to minor flooding in low lying
areas. The rain could end a bit sooner than currently depicted
in the forecast as the mid level dry slot surges east. Most if
not all of the afternoon should be mostly dry as the flow shifts
to the SW and W behind the low and cold front. High temps in
the upper 50s to low 60s.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am thu... Surface low will continue to move quickly
northward along the mid-atlantic NE coast tonight, while axis of
strong upper trough pushes through the carolinas. The strong
dynamics and lingering low moisture should be enough to support
isolated to widely scattered light showers this evening and
tonight. Will keep sc low chance pops, best chances across the
southern half of the area. Any precip chances will be ending
quickly by sunrise Friday morning, with skies clearing from west
to east. Overnight lows dropping into the low mid 40s inland
and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 3 am thu... Rising heights aloft and developing mid to
upper level downsloping flow will keep deep subsidence and a dry
forecast in place Friday through Friday night. At the surface,
a moisture-starved reinforcing cold front will approach from
the northwest during the day, crossing the area through the
evening. Breezy conditions will ensue behind the front,
especially for coastal areas, as winds shift from westerly to
northwesterly. Highs will reach the lower to mid 60s away from
the immediate coast under mostly sunny skies, before dipping
into the mid to upper 30s Friday night as low level CAA fills in
behind the cold front. Winds are expected to remain elevated
enough overnight to preclude any significant frost threat.

Saturday and Sunday... Deep layer subsidence prevails Saturday
through Sunday - keeping sunny clear conditions in place. Cool
high pressure builds in from the west Saturday, bringing
decreasing winds and below normal temps, before passing
overhead and offshore Sunday. Many locations away from the
immediate coast will see freezing temperatures, or at least
frost, Sunday morning given the cool airmass in place and light
winds clear skies efficient radiation expected. Frost freeze
headlines are likely given that the growing season has begun.

Monday through mid-week... Unsettled weather is expected early
next week, with global guidance gradually coming into better
agreement. In general, an upper trough is expected to dig across
the eastern us Monday into Tuesday, developing low pressure
across the midwest and lifting it across new england. Locally,
the cold front associated with this system is the dominate
feature for bringing precip, with the greatest shower chances
arriving in the warm sector ahead of the front Monday night
into Tuesday. The front should move through the area during the
day Tuesday, with high pressure building in behind it. However,
there are indications that low pressure could develop along the
front to our south and ride up the coast or offshore midweek,
justifying chance pops persisting for the immediate coast
through Wednesday. Temps will be above normal ahead of the cold
front, and below normal behind the cold front.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am thu... High confidence in pred sub-vfr conditions
through early this afternoon. A mix of MVFR and ifr currently
across the sites. An area of low pressure will lift north
through the area early this morning. Ceilings will slowly lift
to MVFR later this morn then rapidly improve toVFR this
afternoon as low clouds sct out. Bulk of the rain is now east of
the sites, though could see some scattered showers through 14z.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 3 am thu...VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. A
cold front will approach from the west early next week, and
increasing moisture ahead of the front will bring the potential
for at least periods of flight restrictions beginning Monday
morning.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am thu... Latest obs show SW SE winds 10-20 kt north of
hatteras, and 15-25 kt south of hatteras, with seas 7-11 ft.

Scas continue for the waters and pamlico sound. An area of low
pressure will move north and inland across eastern nc this
morning then push a cold front across the waters as the low
moves well north of the area this afternoon. Gusty SE winds
15-25 kt will continue this morning, then veer behind the low
becoming SW 15-25 kt by this afternoon. Gusty westerly winds
15-25 kt will develop tonight. Dangerous seas 7-12 ft this
morning will subside to 6-9 ft this afternoon and 5-8 ft
tonight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 3 am thu... A dry cold front will cross the waters later
in the day on Friday, bringing a surge of northwesterly winds
Friday night into Saturday. The SCA for the coastal waters
remains in effect into Saturday to cover this, and additionally
scas for the sounds and possibly rivers may be needed as well.

Given that the winds are offshore, seas will continue to
gradually subside nearshore despite continued breezy conditions,
while beyond 10 nm offshore seas will remain around 5 to 8 ft
into the day Saturday.

Later Saturday, high pressure crossing the region will bring
improving marine conditions, as winds and seas subside through
Sunday morning. Then, late Sunday, the high will move offshore
and southerly winds will develop, steady increasing through
early week ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the
west.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 7 am thu... Gusty SE flow will lead to higher than normal
water levels along the south facing beaches through late this
morning. High surf advisory continues through 10 am for rough
surf and minor beach erosion for the beaches from oregon inlet
to north topsail beach.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... High surf advisory until 10 am edt this morning for ncz095-098-
103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Saturday for amz150-152-
154.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Saturday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Hsa cb
aviation... Cqd cb
marine... Cqd cb
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi46 min ESE 19 G 24 62°F 55°F1011.4 hPa
44095 45 mi42 min 50°F10 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 53 mi46 min ESE 12 G 17 56°F 50°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC30 mi37 minESE 18 G 269.00 miOvercast and Breezy62°F53°F73%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE55--5NE73Calm4554NE6N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
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Thu -- 02:00 AM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:23 AM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:24 PM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:45 PM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.5-0.9-0.50.31.62.83.94.44.33.62.41.1-0.1-0.7-0.60.11.22.53.64.44.543

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:03 AM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:18 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM EDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:46 PM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.3-0.6-0.40.31.32.33.23.63.52.91.90.9-0.1-0.6-0.6-0.20.71.72.73.33.432.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.