Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buxton, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 8:39 PM EDT (00:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 12:12AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 814 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late this evening and overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds around 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buxton, NC
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location: 35.13, -75.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 202019
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
419 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak boundary across the area will lift to the north tonight.

Another front will push into the area late Thursday and Thursday
night, then lift back north across the area Friday night and early
Saturday. Another front will impact the region Monday.

Near term through tonight
As of 330 pm Wednesday... Upper ridging will continue to be
gradually be suppressed overnight as a northern stream trough
digs into the great lakes and shortwave energy approaches from
the west. A weak frontal boundary surface trough will lift north
of the area and dissipate with low level winds becoming sw
across the region. Convection initiated across southern areas
this afternoon with convergence along a lingering outflow
boundary and the sea breeze. Expect storms to continue to
initiate along several boundaries across the area this afternoon;
the lingering outflow boundary to the south, sea breeze
boundaries as well as the dissipating frontal boundary pushing
inland. Strong storms will likely continue through the evening
as the aforementioned mid-level shortwave moves across the area
and low level shear increases to around 25 kt. A few storms
could become severe with damaging wind gusts the primary
threat. SPC has the region in a marginal risk of severe across
the area today.

Will continue the heat advisory through early evening for heat
index values around 105f. Heat index values are a bit lower
than yesterday and only a few locations along the crystal coast
have reached or exceeded 105f so far but many sites are only a
couple degrees below criteria at this time. It will be another
mild night with lows in the mid upper 70s.

Short term Thursday
As of 330 pm Wednesday... Shortwave energy moves offshore early
in the day with shortwave ridging ahead of an upper low moving
into the central plains. A backdoor front will approach from the
north through the day but models have slowed down the timing,
not moving into northern sections until around 00z Friday. It
remains very moist and unstable with pw values above 2" and cape
forecast to exceed 3000 j kg and expect scattered thunderstorms
to develop during the afternoon with main forcing being the sea
breeze followed by outflow boundary convergence. Low level
thicknesses are down a few meters from today and expect highs
near or a degree or two less tomorrow. Dewpoints expected to be
similar to day, around 72-77 degrees, yielding heat index
values around 98-103, which is just below heat advisory criteria
and will refrain from issuing an advisory for tomorrow at this
time.

Long term Thursday through Wednesday
As of 350 am Wednesday... A slightly stronger frontal push into
the area is expected late Thursday into Friday. Ridging then
returns Friday night through weekend with a stronger upper
trough and surface front expected to move through eastern nc
Monday. Result will be somewhat of a roller coaster effect on
temps and generally at least a scattered threat of showers and
tstms each day.

Thursday night through Monday... Front will push south into the
area Thu night and will be a focus for convective development,
with some potential for heavy downpours and a few strong to
severe storms. Will cap pops at 50% Thu night due to uncertainty
in location and timing of best rain threat. High pressure
moving across to north will keep front stalled to south where it
will dissipate Friday but models continue to indicate scattered
convective threat across our area.

Front lifts back north by Saturday morning with return of
inland thermal trough pattern for rest of weekend, and will keep
typical 20% coast 30% inland pops both days. Stronger upper
trough and associated cold front moves in from NW Monday and
will have 40-50% chance pops all zones Sun night through mon
night for now.

Hot and humid conditions will continue Thursday with highs
mainly low to mid 90s and heat indices around 105 inland. Some
relief behind the front for Friday with highs in mid to upper
80s. Heat returns for weekend with around 90 for Saturday and
low-mid 90s Sunday, then slightly cooler due to
clouds precipitation for Monday.

Tue and wed... The front is forecast to push south of the region
as high pressure builds over the area from the north. As is
typical for this time of year, there will be enough residual
moisture and instability behind the front to warrant low chance
pops both days for a few mainly diurnally driven showers or
storms. Temps will be closer to normal values in the low to mid
80s.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Short term through Thursday afternoon ...

as of 215 pm wed...VFR conditions are expected for most of the
taf period. With scattered convection firing this afternoon and
evening there could be some brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions. Skies will then become mostly clear overnight, and
winds will be light, which will allow for good radiational
cooling conditions. Some patchy MVFR fog is possible to develop
across inland portions of eastern nc, especially in locations
that receive rain today. Any fog should dissipate quickly after
sunrise, andVFR conditions will return for the day Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday ...

as of 350 am Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of temporary subVFR
conditions possible each day in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Some sub-vfr CIGS will be possible with the ne-e
flow behind the cold front Friday into Friday night.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 4 pm Wednesday... Light winds around 10 kt or less
continue across the waters and are somewhat variable depending
on location. A weak boundary across the area will lift north and
dissipate overnight with winds becoming predominately SW around
10-15 kt. Winds are expected to increase to 10-20 kt Thursday
as gradients tighten ahead of a frontal boundary approaching
from the north. Winds will be strongest south of oregon inlet
including the pamlico sound. Seas expected to be around 1-2 ft
northern waters and 2-4 ft south tonight, then build to 2-4 ft
Thursday all waters with up to 5 ft possible across the central
waters by late in the afternoon.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 350 am Tuesday... Moderate southerly flow 15-20 kt with
3-4 ft seas are expected Thu as the gradient increaes ahead of
an approaching cold front which is forecast to move south of the
waters late Thu night. The flow behind the front Thu night into
fri night will become ne-e 10-15 kt with 2 to 4 ft seas. Sat
return southerly flow develops then strengthens to 15 to 20 kt
in the afternoon with seas building to 3 to 5 ft. The moderate
15-20 kt SW flow continues Sat night and Sunday with gusts to 25
kt and 3 to 5 ft seas possibly building to 6 ft over portions
of the outer waters.

Climate
Near record high temperatures will be possible again today.

Record high temps 6 20 (today)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 2011
greenville 99 1970
jacksonville 97 1994
kinston 104 1924
morehead city 93 2011
new bern 98 1994

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz044-079>081-
090>095-098.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme sgk
marine... Jme sk
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41025 - Diamond Shoals 20 mi39 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 83°F1009.8 hPa (-0.5)76°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi51 min S 5.1 G 8.9 82°F 84°F1009.1 hPa
44095 45 mi51 min 80°F2 ft
41062 45 mi99 min 1.9 G 3.9 1009.9 hPa (-0.7)
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 53 mi57 min ESE 4.1 G 6 79°F 82°F1009.6 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC30 mi48 minSSW 610.00 miFair82°F77°F85%1009.3 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW9SW8W8W65NW5N64333Calm45456E3SE6S7S7S7SW6
1 day agoSW9SW10SW10W12
G19
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G16
W7W8W7W8W6W7W76W5W7SW9SW6SW7SW6SW8SW6
2 days agoSW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:25 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:14 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
33.33.32.92.11.30.5-0.1-0.200.61.42.22.83.132.51.81.10.50.30.30.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:18 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:16 PM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.23.12.71.91.10.3-0.2-0.4-0.10.41.11.92.42.72.62.21.610.50.30.40.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.