Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:08PM Thursday September 20, 2018 2:26 AM EDT (06:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:54PMMoonset 1:35AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 129 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Rest of tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves flat.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves flat.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayboro, NC
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location: 35.15, -76.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 200554
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
154 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will bring a period of dry weather lasting into
the early weekend along with more comfortable humidity. A slow
moving front may bring some showers and thunderstorms late
weekend into early next week.

Near term through today
1am update...

aside from some remnant low mid level clouds, remnants of dying
convection across va skirting across the interior portions of e
nc, mostly clear conditions are expected for the remainder of
the overnight hours. Already, most obs sites have decoupled away
from the sounds and outer banks. Patchy fog is already being
observed near greenville. With this decoupling the risk for
patchy fog will linger through morning, with the highest risk in
areas still impacted by flood waters, or typically susceptible
valleys. Otherwise, a cooler night than the last several.

Previous discussion follows...

outside of diurnal cu, mainly dry air through the column has led
to a mostly sunny day today even as a very weak cyclonic wave
dives southward into the trough left by the remnants of
florence offshore. While this wave has led to a few pop-up
showers and even a thunderstorm across northern va, with sunset
approaching the loss of diurnal support should keep E nc mainly
dry.

With the wave shifting offshore overnight, mid level ridging
with 500mb heights around 594dm begins to build E across nc.

This will lead to quiet conditions both tonight and into the
daytime on Thu thanks to strong subsidence. A spot of fog is
possible late tonight in the typically prone locations.

Otherwise, min temps tonight cooler than most nights past,
dipping into the upper 60s and low 70s, coolest inland. Highs on
thu, even with 850mb temps near +16c should be moderated by ne
onshore flow, keeping highs mainly in the low-mid 80s.

Comfortable humidity thanks to drier dewpoints.

Short term tonight through Friday night
High pres and upper level ridging remains in control through fri
night. This suggests mainly a few clouds but with breaks of sun,
comfortable humidity and highs in the mid 80s and lows in the
upper 60s and low 70s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As a weakening upper level wave shifts east from the continental
divide, it forces the mean jet to the south by the weekend. With
it an attendant front will slip south as well, stalling as it
becomes parallel with the flow aloft in the mid atlantic region.

With this adjustment in the mean flow, moisture will once again
rise, with pwats averaging about 1.75-2.00 in. With the front
nearby, Sun and mon, especially during peak destabilization
some heavy showers and thundershowers possible. This risk does
linger into early next week, but will be somewhat dependent on
where the front ultimately rests.

With the high pwats these showers and storms will need to be
watched, as previous forecaster noted as flooding will still be
ongoing in some locations from florence. Otherwise seasonably
mild with higher humidity likely.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

high confidence overall. Some patchy fog overnight, through
about 12z may lead to occasional MVFR ifr vsby. Otherwise,VFR
through thu. Light winds increase somewhat during the day on thu
out of the e-ne gusting to 25 kt mainly along the outer banks.

Long term Thursday night through Saturday ...

dry weather andVFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through
Saturday.

Marine
Short term through tonight ... As of 315 pm Wednesday... Dry
weather for tonight with high pressure over the NE states. Sub-
small craft advisory conditions expected with 10-15 kt NE flow
and 2-4 ft seas over coastal waters.

Long term Thu through Sat ... As of 315 pm Wednesday... Ne
winds are forecast at 10-15 kt over the sounds Thu with 15-20 kt
over coastal waters where seas will be 4-6 ft. As such a small
craft advisory remains in effect from ocracoke inlet north
across the offshore areas out 20 nautical miles through thu
night. Lighter onshore winds then for Fri and sat.

Hydrology
As of 100 pm Wednesday... Major flooding continues for inland
rivers. Heed all local law enforcement instructions and do not
drive into flooded roadways.

Areal and river flood warnings continue farther inland and
south. Warnings here will persist through at least mid week as
water upstream continues to flow through rivers across eastern
nc. The neuse, trent and CAPE fear rivers will likely take the
longest to fully recede... With forecasts remaining well above
flood stage through the remainder of the week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 6 am edt Friday
for amz150-152-154.

Synopsis...

near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

hydrology... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi45 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 1017 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi87 min NNE 7 G 8.9 1016.5 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC15 mi33 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist70°F70°F100%1017 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W3W3W6W5W4N6N4NW6N8N8N7NW9N8NW9N7N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS7SW8S7S7S8S7SW10SW9
G18
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W10W9W9W13
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2 days agoSE6SE5SE7SE7SE7SE7SE7S12
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G20
S12S11S9
G17
S11S8S7S7S7S7S7S7

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.