Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 4:28 AM   Moonset 5:21 PM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 923 Am Pdt Sun May 5 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon - ..gale warning in effect from 3 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight - .
Today - W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 6 seconds, becoming 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Tonight - W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt late. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 8 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds after midnight. Mon - Western portion, nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds.Mon night - Western portion, W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt late. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft in the evening, becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 8 seconds. Tue - Western portion, W to nw winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 9 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds in the afternoon.Tue night - Western portion, W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 20 kt becoming nw 5 to 10 after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Wed - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Local gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 923 Am Pdt Sun May 5 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 994 mb low was centered in nevada. Gusty to gale force winds will affect the waters into tonight, with gusty winds continuing across the outer waters through the middle of the week.

FXUS66 KLOX 051925 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1225 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
05/933 AM.

A cold storm system has shifted east today, leaving cooler temperatures and gusty west to northwest winds. A warming trend will begin Monday and continue through Wednesday, then little change into next weekend. Gusty northerly winds are expected at times, especially in the mountains and in southern Santa Barbara County.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...05/942 AM.

The storm has exited to the east and showers have mostly ended, but can't rule out a light shower in the Grapevine area between the I5 and the northern Ventura County mountains as northerly flow is pushing up some moisture there. Otherwise, some gusty west to northwest winds at times today and much cooler than normal despite the sunshine.

Heights will quickly rise Monday with light offshore flow to the east and a stronger gradient from the north. This will continue through mid week, generating some gusty northerly winds across the mountains and southern Santa Barbara County, possibly requiring some advisories during the late afternoon and overnight hours.
Temperatures will see a big bounce upward Monday with the offshore flow, with warmer valleys getting into the lower 80s and most other areas in the low to mid 70s. Some additional warming expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/502 AM.

A warming trend continues into at least Wednesday and possibly into late week. Forecast ensemble temperature means climbs throughout the week, but there is quite a bit of spread across the solutions with some uncertainties later in the week and next weekend. The spread becomes much more significant as forecast gets into Friday through next Sunday. The model solutions are struggling with how to handle the ridge to the west and the trough over the West, which could retrograde back as a cutoff low. The spread gets as large as 20-30 degrees for all locations across the region. For now, the forecast goes with NBM values.

Gusty northerly winds are likely to persist through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County during the week.

AVIATION
05/1924Z.

At 1835Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. There was a moist layer up to 5800 ft.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs. Timing of wind changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and +/- 5 kt gusts. There is a 20% chance of IFR- VLIFR conds for KPRB, KSMX, and KSBP 08Z-17Z, and 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs at KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KBUR, and KVNY 10Z-16Z.
Gusty W to NW winds will affect much of the region thru this evening with areas of LLWS, turbulence and mdt UDDF.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of bkn018-025 cigs 10Z-16Z Mon. There is a 20% chance of northerly cross winds to 12-18 kt from 02Z-07Z, and a 20% chance of an E wind component of 7-8 kt 10Z-17Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of bkn018-025 cigs 10Z-16Z Mon. There is a 30% chance of NW wind gusts to 25 kt from 16Z-02Z Mon.

MARINE
05/916 AM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), there is a 70-80% chance of winds increasing to Gale Force levels this afternoon and continuing thru late tonight. Elsewhere and otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds (and seas at times) are expected thru Wed night, with a 40% chance of SCA conds (mainly seas) continuing Thu. There is a 20% chance of Gale Force wind gusts across the waters south of Point Sal on Mon afternoon into Mon night, and a 50% chance for all outer waters Tue afternoon into Tue night.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Thu night thru Sat morning.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Thru Wed night, winds are expected to reach SCA levels during the afternoon/eve hours. Seas may remain at or above SCA levels Mon night thru Wed morning, even when the winds decrease. Then, conds should remain below SCA levels Thu night thru Sat morning.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the forecast. Expect SCA level winds to increase to gales this afternoon into tonight across the SBA Channel (50-60% chance), from Anacapa Island to Malibu (40-50% chance), and across the western portion of the southern inner waters (50-60% chance).
Elsewhere, SCA conds are expected thru late tonight. SCA conds are likely (70% chance) across the Western SBA Channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours Mon and Tue, with a 30-40% chance of SCA conds during these times in the eastern portion of the SBA Channel and western portions of the southern inner waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-340-341-346>348-354-355-362-366-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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