Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avilla Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:06PM Thursday May 23, 2019 4:17 PM PDT (23:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 9:03AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 212 Pm Pdt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 212 Pm Pdt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1033 mb high was located 600 nm west of san francisco. A 1002 mb low was centered in sw colorado.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avilla Beach, CA
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location: 35.17, -120.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 232101
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
201 pm pdt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis 23 1212 pm.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected through this afternoon with a
chance of showers mostly across the mountains. Conditions clear
out and warm slightly Friday and Saturday before another low
pressure system brings a chance of rain for the holiday weekend. A
warming and drying trend is possible for mid-to-late next week.

Short term (tdy-sat) 23 123 pm.

Lots of low level moisture in place with a strong onshore trend
has resulted in a mostly cloudy day across the area with only
some partial clearing across far inland locations. Still a few
showers around mainly south facing slopes of the san gabriels and
in the ventura mountains. Expecting skies to start clearing later
tonight into Friday morning as the trough axis shifts east,
heights start rising, and gradients weaken. There's even a light
east to northeast flow developing early Friday that will also help
dry the air mass out somewhat. The end result being a much sunnier
day Friday with temps up a good 5-8 degrees area-wide.

It looks like this will only last one day however as models are
now showing a strong onshore trend returning Saturday with a
rapidly deepening marine layer preceding the next trough for
Sunday. So Saturday is now looking quite cloudy with possibly even
some morning drizzle for coast valleys south of pt conception and
a chance of afternoon showers over the ventura mountains. Temps
expected to drop back down closer to today's levels in most areas
with gusty west winds returning to the antelope valley.

Model solutions for Saturday night and Sunday pretty much
unchanged from the last few days showing an upper low dropping
south right along the west coast before moving into nevada Sunday
night and Monday. Despite the mostly over-land trajectory most of
the solutions including the NAM now supporting light rain across
the area Sunday, though the timing varies. Amounts generally under
a quarter inch. If the upper low drops farther south than models
are currently showing then we'd have to consider adding in
thunderstorm chances at least for northern areas Sunday afternoon,
but for now the colder more unstable air stays north and east of
slo county.

Long term (sun-wed) 23 151 pm.

A warming and drying trend is expected to begin Monday and
continue at least through mid week as very weak ridging develops.

Models have scaled back on this though and both the magnitude and
duration of the warming trend is not as much as earlier models had
suggested. Wednesday may end up being the warmest day with highs
with a degree or two of normal for this time year. Official
forecast highs may be a little on the conservative side but given
the pattern and model trends have opted to go a little cooler than
guidance, at least for coastal areas.

Lower confidence for the rest of the week as the operational
models now are showing another trough or cutoff low developing
along the west coast with much less northerly flow than before.

Most of the MOS guidance still showing a slight warming trend
through Thursday but ensemble guidance is trending a little
cooler.

Aviation 23 1810z.

At 1712z, there was no marine inversion at klax.

Overall, low confidence in 18z TAF package except high confidence
in desert tafs. For coastal and valley sites, bkn-ovc conditions
are anticipated through the TAF period with flight categories
ranging between MVFR andVFR. Timing of flight category changes is
low through the TAF period.

Klax... Low confidence in 18z taf. There is a 50% chance that MVFR
cigs will not dissipate through the period.

Kbur... Low confidence in 12z taf. There is a 50% chance that MVFR
cigs will dissipate this afternoon.

Marine 23 200 pm.

For the outer waters and inner waters north of point sal, winds
in pzz645, pzz670, pzz673 and pzz676 no longer support sca
criteria, however the swells are still at or above 10 feet. So, a
sca for hazardous seas remains in effect through this evening.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels for Friday and Saturday.

From Sunday afternoon through Monday, there is a 50-60% chance of
sca level winds.

For the inner waters south of pt conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Sunday, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level
winds across the western half of the santa barbara channel.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 9 pm
pdt this evening for zones 645-670. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon
for zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
Another storm system could bring rain, mountain snow and gusty
winds to the region late Saturday through memorial day. Gusty
northerly winds could linger into Tuesday through the interstate
5 corridor and across southern santa barbara county.

Public... Mw
aviation... Sweet rat
marine... Sweet
synopsis... Stewart
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 0 mi25 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 1015.1 hPa54°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 1 mi29 min S 8 G 11 56°F 55°F1015.2 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 7 mi47 min 54°F9 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 21 mi27 min S 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 57°F12 ft1014.3 hPa (+0.0)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 41 mi77 min S 6 G 8.9 56°F 1014.8 hPa (+0.5)
46259 49 mi17 min 59°F14 ft
HRVC1 49 mi41 min 57°F 1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA7 mi21 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F52°F70%1013.9 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA24 mi26 minWSW 96.00 miOvercast with Haze61°F54°F78%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW18
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NW15NW11NW10NW9N5NW7CalmNW3W6NW3CalmE5S3S4CalmCalmSW7SW7SW10SW11SW8
1 day agoNW24
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NW14NW15NW12NW7NE3NW5NW74CalmCalmCalmN5CalmNW5W7NW13NW15NW13NW18
2 days agoNW17NW19NW15
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NW10NW11NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4CalmW5W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
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Thu -- 12:24 AM PDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM PDT     -3.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:46 PM PDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM PDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.421.20.1-1.1-2.2-2.9-3.2-3.1-2.6-1.7-0.8-00.60.910.90.70.50.60.81.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Bay, California
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Morro Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM PDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:33 PM PDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM PDT     2.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.34.44.13.52.71.91.10.50.10.10.411.62.32.72.92.92.82.82.72.72.83.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.