Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avilla Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:55PM Monday November 19, 2018 7:13 AM PST (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 2:51AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 224 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the evening, then chance of rain.
Wed..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Rain in the morning, then rain likely.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of rain in the evening, then slight chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 8 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 9 ft. Chance of showers.
PZZ600 224 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst, a 1031 mb high pressure ridge was located across idaho and a 1009 mb low pressure center was located 600 nm W of point conception.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avilla Beach, CA
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location: 35.17, -120.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 191237
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
437 am pst Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis 19 325 am.

There will be varying amounts of high clouds across the region through
Tuesday. Rain is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a chance
of showers lingering into thanksgiving. Additional showers are
possible north of point conception Friday night. Temperatures will
be near or slightly above normal today, then a cooling trend will
take place beginning Tuesday, with below normal temperature
Wednesday through Friday. Warmer weather is expected next weekend.

Short term (tdy-wed) 19 415 am.

Considerable high clouds across the region this morning.

Gradients between klax and kdag were running around 3 mb
offshore, and are forecast to increase a bit more this morning.

Some locally gusty NE winds have developed in the mountains of
l.A. County, and these winds will likely become more widespread by
sunrise, then spread into the valleys and some coastal sections of
l.A. County after daybreak. Expect winds to remain well below
advisory levels. Due to the high clouds and offshore flow, there
were no low clouds across the region, but some could develop on
the central coast and persist for a few hours this morning. With
so much high cloudiness to the west of the forecast areas, expect
skies to be mostly cloudy, although there likely will be some
filtered sunshine from time to time. Despite the offshore flow and
some height rises this morning, clouds should be thick enough to
offset any warning today. Temps should be similar to those on
Sunday, but could even drop a couple of degrees in some area.

An upper level low was located 500 miles west southwest of point
conception early this morning. This is a fairly energetic system,
and some lightning strikes have been noted near the center of the
upper low. However, the upper low is forecast to track east
southeastward today and tonight, coming onshore across extreme
northern baja california early Tue morning. This should keep its
rain shield to the south of the region, although it would not be
too surprising if there were a few light sprinkles across southern
portions of the forecast area late today through early tue.

The WRF shows low clouds pushing into coastal and possibly lower
valley areas tonight, though confidence in this is low with all of
the high clouds across the region, and continued, though
weakening offshore flow. High clouds should decrease on tue, so
expect a partly cloudy day across the region aside from any
morning low clouds that might affect coastal and lower valley
areas. Lowering heights and thicknesses, cooling at 950 mb and a
return to onshore gradients should bring a few degrees of cooling
to most areas on tue, despited the expected increase in sunshine.

The focus will then shift to a trough moving through the eastern
pacific Tue and Tue night. Models have come into much better
agreement, showing a fairly sharp trough and associated surface
frontal system approaching the west coast late Tue night and wed
morning. All models have trended a few hours slower with this
system. The GFS is still a bit faster with its eastward movement
than either the ec or the wrf.

The surface front associated with this trough will push across
the region Wed afternoon and Wed night. There is a chance of rain
on the central coast Wed morning, with rain becoming likely there
in the afternoon. There is a slight chance that rain will push
into the l.A. Basin late in the day, but most of the day should be
dry in l.A. Counties. Rain will turn to showers across slo and sba
counties Wed night, but it should rain most of the night across
vtu and l.A. Counties.

Models show fairly good precipitable water values of about 1.2
inches, and continue to show and large area of strong lift
all the way up to 400 to 500 mb of so. The models continue to
show a very strong jet of 155 to 175 kt depending upon the model
pushing into the forecast area as the front moves through late wed
and Wed night. This could really help to enhance the front as it
traverses the forecast area. The one slight difference is that
the models have shifted the jet a bit farther north, aimed at the
region from southern slo county through western ventura county.

This may now end up being the area with the heaviest rainfall,
although there could be a shift back southward with the jet on the
next model run.

There will also be an area of increased instability, across the
coastal waters north of pt conception Wed afternoon, across slo
and sba counties Wed evening, and across vtu and western l.A.

Counties late Wed evening through late Wed night. Later shifts
may have to add thunderstorms to the forecast during the peak of
the instability for each area.

There will also be some low level southerly flow which could
provide some orographic enhancement of the rain on and below south
and southwest facing slopes.

The 00z GFS and ec are showing between 0.50 inches and 1 inch of
rain in most areas during the Wed afternoon through very early thu
morning period, though both models now have somewhat lower totals
across coastal and valley areas of l.A. County. The WRF shows some
totals up to 2 inches across the mountains of vtu and eastern sba
counties. Much of the rain is still expected to fall in a 4 to 8
hour period. If this rainfall occurs, the would likely be
some issues in and around the recent burn areas, especially the
woolsey and hill burn areas, with mudslides and rock slides a
good possibility. At this point, it appears that there is still a
20% chance that rainfall intensities will meet USGS debris flow
thresholds across the woolsey and hill burn areas. Those
thresholds are 0.50 inches in one hour, 0.30 inches in 30 minutes,
and 0.20 inches in 15 minutes. Residents in and near the burn
areas should stay tuned to the latest forecasts, and may want to
be prepared with sandbags.

Long term (thu-sun) 19 436 am.

Any steady rain across eastern and southern l.A. County should
turn to showers by mid morning at the latest, moist broad cyclonic
west northwest flow across the region will keep a chance of
showers across the region, especially in the morning. Clouds and
the chance of showers will decrease in the afternoon. Thanksgiving
day will be another cool day across the region, possibly even a
bit cooling in many areas than wed.

Zonal flow pattern will set up across the region Thu night and
fri, and heights will be on the rise. The tail end of the frontal
system may bring a few showers to slo county fri, possibly
spreading into sba county Fri night, but if any rain falls, it
looks as though it will be light. Elsewhere, expect partly cloudy
skies of Fri and there should be a couple of degrees of warming in
most areas.

Some ridging is forecast to build into the region over the
weekend, so expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temps
should be above normal in most areas, especially on Sunday.

The one main difference in the models is that the ec shows a
strong upper low digging through the great basin sat, with another
upper low moving southeast from the pac NW into the great basin
late Sunday. This keeps heights lower across the region,
suggesting less of a warmup than the gfs. Also the ec shows
strong offshore flow across the forecast area on Sunday.

Aviation 19 1150z.

At 0800z at klax... The inversion was near 800 feet. The top of
the inversion was near 1100 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees
celsius.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the coastal tafs thatVFR cigs
will prevail, but a 40% chance that ifr CIGS could develop between
12z-16z and high confidence elsewhere. There is a 20% chance that
MVFR CIGS could develop during the same time frame for coastal taf
sites.

Klax... Moderate confidence in the 12z taf. There is a forty
percent chance of ifr MVFR conditions developing this morning
between 12z-16z. Otherwise high clouds withVFR conditions will
prevail. There is a less than ten percent chance of east winds of
eight knots through 17z.

Kbur... High confidence in 12z taf. High clouds withVFR
conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.

Marine 19 238 am.

50% chance that patchy fog will develop this morning there is a
forty percent chance of small craft advisory level winds beginning
late Tuesday in the north and by midday Wednesday in the south
and continuing into the weekend. Rain is likely across the coastal
waters Wednesday and possibly lingering into Thursday. There is a
slight chance of more rain on Friday north of point conception
otherwise conditions will be warm and dry across the coastal
waters.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
Rain is expected across the region Wednesday into Wednesday
night, with a chance of showers Thursday. There is a chance that
the rain could be heavy enough to cause some minor mudslides or
rock slides in and around recent burn areas, with a slight chance
of more significant debris flows.

Public... Db
aviation... Kaplan
marine... Kaplan kj
synopsis... Db
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 0 mi36 min N 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 1017.2 hPa45°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 1 mi44 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 62°F1017.1 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 7 mi47 min 63°F3 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 21 mi84 min E 1.9 G 3.9 59°F 62°F4 ft1015.9 hPa (-0.3)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 41 mi74 min SE 11 G 12 61°F 1016.5 hPa (+0.3)
46259 49 mi44 min 62°F4 ft
HRVC1 49 mi44 min 63°F 1016 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA7 mi18 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist44°F41°F89%1016.5 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA24 mi23 minSE 38.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F44°F86%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3SW3SW6W5SW7NW10NW10NW9NW6NW4SE4E3SE3E3SE3CalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW635NW8NW6NW5N3CalmCalmCalmE5CalmS3S5W4CalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm3SW84SW8S6NW4NW3CalmCalmE3SE4CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmE3SE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
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Mon -- 12:26 AM PST     -1.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:51 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM PST     1.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:39 PM PST     -1.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:54 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:26 PM PST     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.4-1-0.30.51.31.821.81.20.4-0.4-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.3-0.7-00.50.80.80.4-0.1-0.7

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Bay, California
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Morro Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:27 AM PST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:52 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM PST     4.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:39 PM PST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:54 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:08 PM PST     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.3111.42.12.93.64.14.23.93.42.721.51.111.31.92.52.93.232.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (10,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.