Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avilla Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:21PM Friday June 23, 2017 1:47 PM PDT (20:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:35AMMoonset 7:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 832 Am Pdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 5 ft at 10 seconds and se 3 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 5 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 5 ft dominant period 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 832 Am Pdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 8 am pdt...a 1029 mb surface high was centered 200 nm W of seattle, and a 1005 mb thermal low was centered near las vegas. Patchy dense fog will likely the coastal waters through the weekend. Winds will increase through the weekend with small craft advisory conditions possible across the outer coastal waters as early as Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avilla Beach, CA
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location: 35.17, -120.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 232037
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
137 pm pdt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the coast and some
valleys north of los angeles into Saturday morning. The high will
bring temperatures that are well above normal inland, and normal
at the coast Saturday into Monday. The skies should be fair except
for an overnight marine layer through next week. A low will move
in Tuesday through Thursday for a cooling trend and increasing
cloudiness. Then the end of the week may be in transition as the
low exits.

Short term (tdy-mon)
marine lyr again hugging the coast and in some cases inland by
several miles. Gradients still showing decent northerly trends
which bodes well for less inland push tonight and earlier and more
complete clearing Saturday. This GOES along with the 2-4 degree
(c) increase in 950mb temps which should translate into 4-8
degrees (f) of warming on average for the coastal valleys and less
warming in other areas. Temps should not require expansion of the
current heat advisory warning product, though there will be small
portions of zones, particularly southeast slo county where heat
risks will be higher due to the combination of hot daytime temps
and minimal overnight relief. For now though will leave the heat
advisory warning alone and let it rise for the same areas through
Sunday.

Keeping a close eye on some moisture and energy coming up from the
southeast. Lightning had been detected earlier this morning but
nothing since then. Still, it's a sign that there is some decent
instability with this feature even though most of it and the
moisture is above 600 mb. Since there is some energy with it it
won't necessarily need afternoon heating to kick storms off.

However it's so dry below 600 mb that the chances for anything
measurable reaching the ground are really low. So for now given
its history of lightning and the trajectory of the moisture have
added in a slight chance of dry lightning to the forecast for our
western zones (mainly extreme western ventura county and all of
sb slo counties) tonight into early Saturday. Air mass stabilizes
through the day Saturday so the dry lightning potential has been
confined to the night and early morning hours.

This feature is gone by Sunday leaving behind a warmer air mass
and continued northerly flow at the surface. So temps expected to
warm a couple more degrees Sunday which should be the highest of
the next several days.

Sundowner winds expected to start developing as early as this
evening in the SRN sb area but stronger Saturday and Sunday
evenings. May be borderline advisory level there. Some winds also
through the i-5 corridor but below advisory levels.

A slight cooling trend is expected Monday as a weak trough moves
into or and NRN ca. This will knock the ridge down and cool most
areas by at least a few degrees.

Long term (tue-fri)
both the GFS and ec in pretty good agreement through about
Thursday showing a trough developing along the west coast next
week. While the patterns are similar the ECMWF now has trended
slightly cooler than the gfs. So while the magnitude of cooling
may not be entirely certain, confidence is high that a cooling
trend will begin Monday and continue through Thursday. At that
point models both show the ridge returning through next weekend,
though somewhat stronger warmer on the gfs. Expecting highs to
return to normal levels by Tue or wed, then slightly below normal
thu before warming again Friday. Marine lyr will become more
expansive especially by around mid week and again clear to near
the beaches.

Aviation 23 1800z.

At 1723z at klax, the marine layer depth was 1700 feet. The top
of the inversion was around 4600 feet with a temperature near 27
degrees celsius.

Low to moderate confidence in the 18z tafs. Today is roughly
similar to yesterday as a few coastal locations are expected to
struggle to clear this afternoon. The main element of doubt with
the forecast is the possibility of weaker onshore flow tonight and
Saturday causing a reduction in marine cloud coverage. For now,
we have kept the marine clouds in the valleys, but do not be
surprised if the valley tafs soon reflect a sunnier, more
optimistic tone. Elsewhere the marine clouds will return tonight
with another round of MVFR to ifr conditions.

Klax... Moderate confidence in taf. There is a 30 percent chc of no
afternoon clearing. Very high confidence that there will not be an
east wind component over 5kt.

Kbur... Low to moderate confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 40
percent chc that CIGS will not make it into the airfield tonight at
all.

Marine 23 900 am.

Winds will remain below small craft advisory levels through
Friday night across the outer waters, then gradually increase
through Monday. There is a 50 percent chance of small craft
advisory level winds developing Saturday morning with a better
chance by the afternoon across the outer coastal waters. Across
the inner waters, confidence is high there will not be any sca
through the weekend. However there will be a 50-60% chance for
local gusts to 25 kt across the W portion of the sba channel.

A 2-3 foot south swell at 16-17 second period will last through
Saturday and may pose a risk for breaking waves nearshore. People
boating or kayaking near shore should use extra caution.

Although the coverage of dense fog is easing a bit, there is still
a 40% chance of patchy dense fog during the night and mornings
through the weekend.

Fire weather 23 900 am.

Hot and dry conditions will continue through Monday of next week.

The hot conditions will also bring the potential for plume
dominated fires which can create their own intense winds. Gusty
onshore winds will continue today focusing the concerns to
interior los angeles county. Weaker but locally breezy northwest
winds should follow Saturday through Monday... Shifting the area of
concern to santa barbara county and the tejon pass.

Tropical moisture aloft will move through the area tonight and
Saturday. While this should have little impact on humidities at
the surface, this moisture is producing a small area of high-
based thunderstorms. If this feature persists, dry lightning will
be a major concern as an ignition source with little to no rain.

With such conditions, elevated fire weather concerns will persist
through Monday, especially over all interior sections away from
the influence of the marine layer. If fire ignition occurs,
dangerous fire behavior should be expected. As such, the public
should be extreme careful when handling potential ignition sources
such as cigarettes, campfires, hand torches and metallic weed
trimmers.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Heat advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt Sunday for zones
38-52>54. (see laxnpwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect through Saturday evening
for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Excessive heat warning in effect until 9 pm pdt Sunday for
zone 59. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
no significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
fire... Kittell
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 1 mi47 min WSW 12 G 17 59°F 57°F1014.3 hPa (-0.0)
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 7 mi57 min 59°F4 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 21 mi57 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 58°F4 ft1014.2 hPa (+0.6)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 41 mi47 min S 4.1 G 8.9 57°F 1014.7 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA7 mi51 minNW 710.00 miFair76°F57°F54%1012.5 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA24 mi56 minNW 910.00 miFair72°F57°F61%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW10W73NW63W4SW3SW3CalmSW5SW5SW3S3SW4SW4SW3SW4CalmW3CalmCalmW6NW7
1 day agoNW10NW9NW12NW11NW10NW9NW7NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3CalmSE3S3CalmSE3CalmCalmSW5SW7
2 days agoNW11NW12NW11NW8NW12NW12NW11NW8NW8NW6NW6NW6NW4NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmS5CalmCalm53NW10
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
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Fri -- 04:11 AM PDT     -3.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:36 AM PDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:29 PM PDT     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:32 PM PDT     New Moon
Fri -- 08:02 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:41 PM PDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0.8-2.3-3.4-3.9-3.7-2.9-1.6-0.30.71.31.30.90.2-0.5-1-1-0.50.51.82.93.73.83.2

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Bay, California
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Morro Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:29 AM PDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:35 AM PDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:19 PM PDT     1.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:32 PM PDT     New Moon
Fri -- 08:03 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:38 PM PDT     5.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.21.90.8-0.1-0.6-0.6-0.10.81.72.42.92.92.72.421.81.92.33.14.14.95.55.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.