Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vandemere, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:56PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:33 PM EST (19:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:04AMMoonset 9:41PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 226 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Isolated showers. Areas of fog late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening, decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Waves flat.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vandemere, NC
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location: 35.17, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 191919
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
219 pm est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue off the coast through mid week and
produce a very warm southerly flow across the region. A
weakening cold front will move into the area late week then
dissipate or lift north next weekend. Another front will move
through the area late this weekend or early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 215 pm mon... Winds will continue to veer to the south
tonight around the offshore high. The low levels will remain
moist while the mid levels really dry out after 00z. Despite
this drying, the models continue to generate very light qpf
amounts tonight (a few hundreths of an inch), while the GFS and
ecmwf MOS are in very good agreement with 20-40% pops suggesting
a shallow low QPF precipitation event. In addition would expect
widespread low clouds to develop with the potential for dense
advection fog to form inland and along the coast. Could see
widespread visibilities below 1 2 mile develop by late evening.

Lows will be mild for february in the mid to upper 50s.

Short term Tuesday
As of 215 pm mon... Ridging surface and aloft continues to
extend across the region from the western atlantic. Rh below 850
mb continues 70%+ but very dry above so will not carry any
pops. Very warm southerly flow will result in highs in the mid
to upper 70s, except for upper 60s lower 70s south coast and
outer banks.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 230 am mon... Strengthening high pressure offshore will be
the dominant feature through late week, supporting temperatures
well above normal. A slow moving cold front will approach the
region from the west mid to late week, possibly moving through
the region late week. Another front is progged to push through
the area late this weekend into early next week. See climate
section below for temp records.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... The high will cont off the
coast through Wed as upr rdg builds off the coast. Mainly dry
tue night thru Wed night with area in warm sector with little
to no forcing, though an isolated shower will be possible along
the coast. Very mild Wed with highs in the mid 70s lower 80s.

Beaches as usual will be cooler with mainly upper 60s to low
70s. Areas of low clouds and fog will be possible in the late
night early morning hours.

Thursday through Monday... A weak cold front is forecast to push
southward into the area Thu afternoon and Thu night, then wash
out or lift back to the north Friday. Isolated showers possible
thu through sat, and kept small pops, with front over region
but moisture and forcing look weak with little in the way of
rainfall expected. At this time best chance looks like late thu
into fri, mainly across the northern forecast area. Highs thu
will again reach 75 to 80 inland with warm sector conditions.

Bit cooler fri... However hgts thicknesses remain high so mild
temps cont with upr 60s lower 70s inland to lower mid 60s along
the coast. High pressure offshore strengthens over the area sat
and sun. Increasing heights thicknesses and low level SW flow
sat and sun, support highs upper 60s along the coast, and
mid upper 70s inland. The next front approaches the area
Sunday, likely moving through Sun night into early mon. The gfs
is much more progressive, while the ec is slower and looks to
stall it off the coast early next week. Scattered showers
possible.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tue ...

as of 1 pm Monday... A mixed bag of ceiling categories at the 4
terminals early this afteroon, ranging fromVFR to MVFR. Think
there will be a brief period ofVFR throughout from 20z-00z
followed by MVFR developing early this evening. After that there
is a strong signal in the guidance for lifr ifr conditions to
develop in fog and low ceilings as the low levels become
saturated in the southerly flow around atlantic high pressure.

Ceilings will lift toVFR in the late morning to early
afternoon with a light southerly wind.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 230 am mon... Forecast soundings and guidance support low
ceilings and areas of fog developing each night early morning,
with widespread sub-vfr conditions.

Marine
Short term through tue
as of 215 pm mon... Southerly flow will continue through the
short term with high pressure anchored over the western
atlantic. Winds will average 5-15 knots across the zones with
seas averaging 2-4 feet.

Diamond buoy continues to report winds and seas locally higher
than other reporting sites. The buoy reports water temp of 72
degrees, while other sites report water temps in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Will not issue small craft advisory since conditions
are likely locallized to the immediate vicinity of the buoy due
to this warm water eddy, and do not represent conditions
through the entire marine zone.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 230 am mon... Strengthening high pressure offshore will be
the dominant feature through most of the period. A weak cold
front is forecast to push south into the area late Thursday and
Thursday night, before washing out or lifting back to the north
Friday. S SW winds 5-15 kt expected Tue night through thu, with
seas 2-4 ft. A brief period of northerly winds likely Thu night
into Friday, before returning to S sw.

Climate
Temps could approach records this week.

Record high temps 2 20 (Tuesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 71 1994
greenville 81 1991
jacksonville 82 1991
kinston 81 1991
morehead city 73 1994
new bern 81 1991
record high temps 2 21 (Wednesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 75 1989
greenville 80 1922
jacksonville 78 2011
kinston 79 2011
morehead city 71 1971
new bern 79 2011
record high temps 2 22 (Thursday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 76 1971
greenville 80 2003
jacksonville 77 2003
kinston 78 2003
morehead city 72 1971
new bern 80 1980

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Cqd
aviation... Hsa cqd
marine... Hsa cqd
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 31 mi45 min S 6 G 9.9 62°F 53°F1029.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 38 mi33 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 1029.5 hPa (-1.4)
41063 46 mi153 min S 18 G 21 70°F 70°F1030.3 hPa (-0.9)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 50 mi45 min SSE 9.9 G 14 65°F 56°F1029.4 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE7
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SW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC22 mi39 minS 10 G 2010.00 miOvercast73°F63°F71%1028.9 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6N7NW6N6E3E6E3E4E7E7NE7NE7NE7NE6E4NE6N7NE9NE9NE11NE11NE10NE9
1 day agoN4N5NW3NW53NE4NE5E5E4SE5SE6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmSW4SW4W6NW6NW4
2 days agoN16
G21
N12
G19
N12N10NE10N8NE7N5E3E3CalmN5N6N3N3N4N5N6N4N5N3N5N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Mon -- 05:06 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:56 AM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:19 PM EST     2.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.40.90.50.1-0.10.10.511.622.121.61.10.60.2-0.1-00.30.81.41.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:28 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:55 AM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:48 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.61.30.90.50.2-0-00.30.81.31.71.81.71.410.60.2-0-0.10.10.61.11.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.