Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hobucken, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:03PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:46 PM EST (03:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 1001 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Overnight..NE winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves choppy. A slight chance of drizzle late this evening and early morning. Showers likely.
Thu..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, increasing to rough after midnight.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobucken, NC
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location: 35.19, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 150317
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1017 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will approach from the south tonight
then lift northeast just inland from the coast Thursday. The
low will quickly lift to the north Thursday night pushing a cold
front offshore. High pressure will ridge into the region
Friday through the weekend. A low pressure area may skirt the
coast early next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 10 pm Wednesday... No change with this update.

Sfc high pressure is extending across the carolinas from the
north. The cool and dry conditions at the low-levels will mostly
keep any precip extremely light or sprinkles through tonight.

After midnight a coastal trough warm front will start to
approach the coastal counties and result in rain showers to
spread from the coast to inland through the overnight hours.

Most of the heavier rain is expected to be along the coast. Lows
will range from lower 40s inland to upper 40s cst with temp
rising late espcly coast as onshore flow dvlps.

Short term Thursday night through 6 pm Thursday
As of 215 pm Wednesday... Low pressure over sc Thursday morning
and will be strengthening as it lifts NE across eastern nc.

Most of the area will get into the warm sector, with the
exception of deep inland areas. Temperatures and dewpoints will
rise into the 60s and low 70s in the warm sector which will set
the stage for the possibility of severe weather. Strong low and
mid level shear will be present Thursday, however degree of
instab is in doubt as gfs ECMWF keep instab limited and along
imd cst while NAM shows signif more instab spreading inland a
bit. There is certainly a poss for some organized convection
including supercells and assoc tornado threat along the cst
with less chc as head inland. Heavy rain will also fall across
the area as pwat values approach 2", with storm total rainfall
of 1-2 inches expected over the coastal plain, and 2-3 inches
east of us 17. With many areas in eastern nc 200-300% above
normal rainfall over the past two weeks, will cont the flash
flood watch... Did shorten duration of watch as heavy precip will
be ending from W to E in aftn. High temps will range from lower
70s most of the coast to upper 50s around 60 deep inland.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 230 pm wed... Drier high pressure will build in late week
through this weekend, and then a week coastal trough develops by
Monday and could bring some rain showers to the coast. High
pressure will then build in again through midweek. Temps will
generally be near climo.

Thursday night through Sunday... High pressure will build in
behind the departing system, and it will be cooler as much of
the us will be under a longwave trough. A modest warming trend
will be present this weekend, with highs Friday in the mid to
upper 50s, and then by Sunday high temps will reach the low to
perhaps some mid 60s across eastern nc. Low temps will dip to
the mid 30s interior, and low to mid 40s near the beaches
(except obx which will remain in upper 40s).

Monday and Tuesday... A weak coastal trough will develop by
Monday, which could bring some rain showers east of us 17, esp
late Sunday night through the first half of the day Monday.

Will raise pops just a bit near the coast (30-50%) based on the
14 12z ecm cmc, but keep coastal plains in only slght chc. High
pressure will build in again from the north on Tuesday, with
dry weather expected. High temps will range from 60-65 Monday,
with slightly cooler conditions expected Tuesday. Lows continue
to be around average in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Short term through 18z Thursday ...

as of 7 pm Wednesday... High confidence inVFR conditions will
persist for the next six hours. Conditions will start to
deteriorate as the coastal trough warm front starts to lift into
area, resulting in MVFR conditions as rain showers spread in
from the coast. Precipitation intensity will increase as the low
approaches the area from the south... Leading to ifr conditions
(both ceilings and vsby) Thursday morning and persist through
most of the day. Expect NE winds tonight to increase overnight
with gusty winds up to 25 knots starting early Thursday morning
and winds veering to the se. Plus, models are indicating llws
to effect all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday ...

as of 230 pm wed... Improving conditions back toVFR Thursday
night as skies quickly clear from W to E with cold front pushing
offshore. It will be a bit gusty thur night into Fri with gusts
upwards of 20 kt or so. High pres builds in through the weekend
withVFR continuing.

Marine
Short term tonight and Thu ...

as of 10 pm Wednesday... No change to the marine forecast.

Dangerous boating conditions will cont this period. Low pres
will develop to the S tonight then lift NE inland from the coast
thu. NE winds will increase to 25 to 35 kts tonight then shift
to E to SE Thu as the low passes just to the w. Gusts to 40 kts
will be poss mainly cstl wtrs. These strong winds will lead to
seas building to 6 to 10 ft late tonight with seas peaking 9 to
13 feet thu. Cont all headlines with gales cstl wtrs and pamlico
sound with SCA other wtrs.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 230 pm wed... Strong winds continue through thur night
behind departing cold front and CAA continuing the sca
conditions. May be some brief gales after midnight for several
hours on the sounds and coastal waters, before quickly
diminishing on Fri as high pres builds in. Seas look to remain
elevated through Friday night. High pres will build in from the
w over the weekend with winds mainly 10-15 kt and seas subsiding
to 2-4 ft.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 215 pm wed... Strong onshore flow Thu will lead to waves
in surf zone building to 8 feet or greater... Espcly from cape
lookout n. Will issue a high surf advisory to cover this late
tonight into Thu evening from carteret county north to outer
banks.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Flash flood watch from 3 am est Thursday through Thursday
afternoon for ncz029-044-079-090-091.

Flash flood watch from 3 am est Thursday through Thursday
evening for ncz045>047-080-081-092>095-098-103-104.

High surf advisory from 4 am to 8 pm est Thursday for ncz095-
103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Friday for amz136-137.

Gale warning until 1 pm est Thursday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for amz130-131.

Gale warning until 5 pm est Thursday for amz150-152-154-156-
158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf bm
short term... Rf
long term... Tl sgk
aviation... Tl bm ms
marine... Rf tl bm
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 35 mi28 min NNE 14 G 22 53°F 61°F1027.5 hPa
41063 38 mi46 min Calm G 0
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 39 mi28 min NE 16 G 22 54°F 60°F1027.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 40 mi46 min NNE 26 G 30 1027.2 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC12 mi1.8 hrsNNE 15 G 2410.00 mi52°F45°F77%1028.5 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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W10--SW6W10SW7W6W9W12W8W6NW5N8N12N10N11N12
2 days agoNE8NE8N7NE5NE7N7N8NE8NE9----NE10NE12NE13NE10NE13E15NE14NE12E10SE10SE14SE13SE12

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
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Ocracoke Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:35 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:58 AM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:33 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.310.70.50.50.60.91.31.61.921.91.61.30.90.70.50.50.60.91.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:14 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:03 PM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:43 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.40.30.20.30.30.40.50.70.910.90.80.70.50.30.30.20.20.30.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.