Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hobucken, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:11PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:38 AM EDT (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 435 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves light chop.
Thu night..E winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobucken, NC
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location: 35.19, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230802
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
402 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue offshore through today. A cold
front will move through the area late tonight followed by high
pressure building in from the north Thursday. The high will move
offshore Friday with a bermuda high pattern returning for the
weekend.

Near term through today
As of 245 am Wednesday... An upper level shortwave and sfc cold
front approach from the northwest today. A moist and unstable
airmass remain in place ahead of the front and expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop late morning and afternoon
hours with best coverage along the sea breeze. By late afternoon
expect a line of strong pre-frontal storms to be dropping into
northern sections. With better upper level support and bulk
shear increasing to around 30 kt this afternoon a few storms
could become marginally severe with damaging wind gusts the
primary threat but could also see marginally severe hail as well.

Sw flow ahead of the front will continue to bring warm and
humid conditions and expect temps to top out in the mid 80s
inland to lower 80s near the coast.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am Wednesday... Ongoing line of showers and thunderstorms
will continue to push south across the area tonight with the
cold front pushing through the area after midnight. The severe
threat continues into the evening hours but as the convection
moves into southern sections expect storms to gradually weaken
as instability decreases with loss of heating. The greatest
threat for severe will generally be north of highway 70 where
spc has the region outlooked for a marginal risk. Precip will
taper off from north to south after midnight as drier air
spreads in behind the front but will likely linger across
southern sections late tonight. Another mild night with lows
around 65-70.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 345 am Wednesday... A cold front will provide a brief
respite from the humidity Thursday into the early portion of the
weekend, before deep moisture returns with numerous showers and
thunderstorms for early next week.

Thursday through Sunday... A back door cold front will move into
the southern CWA early Thursday. There will be a chance of a few
showers and possible thunderstorms early in the day along the
front, before lower dewpoints filter in. Thursday actually looks
to be a rather nice day as dewpoints drop into the 60s area wide
with high temperatures in the low 80s with NE winds around 10
mph or so. A pleasant night will follow Thursday night with lows
into the 60s area-wide. Friday should be a generally sunny day
with highs in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Winds veer
to SE S on Saturday but forcing for precipitation remains weak.

Will have just a few showers or storms inland on the seabreeze
for Saturday, with highs warming to the mid 80s. Moisture will
continue to increase on Sunday with gusty southerly winds and
highs into the mid 80s. Upper forcing remains weak however, and
will continue with just low chance pops at this time.

Monday and Tuesday... Deepening moisture associated with an upper
low closing off along the gulf coast will lead to higher chances
of showers and thunderstorms for early next week. Precipitable
water values will surge to over 2 inches with increasingly gusty
se S winds. Will forecast high chance pops at this time with
high temperatures generally upper 70s to lower 80s with
increased cloud cover.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 2 am Wednesday... PredVFR expected this morning with sw
winds keeping lower level mixed and don't expect fog
development. A couple models, mainly the nam, bring a brief
period of ifr MVFR status to the terminals during the pre-dawn
hours but probs are minimal leading to a low confidence of
occurrence, therefore have just mentioned scattered lower
clouds at this time. Convective activity increases this
afternoon through tonight bringing periods of sub-vfr
conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the region today with best coverage along the sea breeze.

By late afternoon a pre-frontal line of showers will push into
northern sections, then push south through the area overnight.

Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging
wind gusts and large hail possible. A cold front will push south
through the area after midnight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 355 am Wednesday... A rather quiet period aviation-wise
expected for Thursday through Sunday. Lower dewpoints and light
winds will lead to good flying conditions, mostlyVFR for
Thursday and Friday. A few scattered sea breeze thunderstorms
may form Saturday and Sunday afternoon inland, but any sub-vfr
conditions will be short-lived.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 330 am Wednesday... Sw winds around 10-20 kt expected today
ahead of a cold front with seas around 3-5 ft. Gradients a bit
this evening, then will see the front push south across the
waters after midnight with winds becoming northerly behind the
front and seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. Strong thunderstorms are
expected to push across the waters late this afternoon through
the overnight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 355 am Wednesday... Fairly quiet marine weather will
continue through most of the forecast period. Behind a cold
front Thursday, expect NE winds at 10-15 knots Thursday and
Thursday night before winds veer to more SE S by Friday and into
the weekend. In response to a re-strengthening of high pressure
offshore and low pressure developing over the gulf of mexico,
se S winds will start to increase Sunday with S winds gusting to
20 knots possible by Sunday afternoon. Per latest local
nwps swan model, seas should remain at or below 5 feet until
Saturday, but building to as high as 8 feet Sunday as SE swell
energy increases late in the day.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Ctc sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 35 mi51 min SW 2.9 G 8
41063 38 mi159 min WSW 19 G 21 76°F 1018.1 hPa (-0.6)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 39 mi51 min SW 8.9 G 13 73°F 75°F1017.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 40 mi39 min SW 8.9 G 12 1018.7 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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SW4
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6N7NW6N6E3E6E3E4E7E7NE7NE7NE7NE6E4NE6N7NE9NE9NE11NE11NE10NE9
1 day agoN4N5NW3NW53NE4NE5E5E4SE5SE6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmSW4SW4W6NW6NW4
2 days agoN16
G21
N12
G19
N12N10NE10N8NE7N5E3E3CalmN5N6N3N3N4N5N6N4N5N3N5N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Level, Core Sound, North Carolina
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Sea Level
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:58 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.70.60.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.60.50.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
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Ocracoke Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:10 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:47 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:01 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.51.81.91.91.61.20.70.300.10.30.71.21.61.921.81.510.50.20.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.