Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday September 21, 2017 5:22 PM EDT (21:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:27AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 211838
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
238 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
A moist easterly flow will be developing on Friday followed by
drier and stronger high pressure this weekend. Tropical systems jose
and maria will remain off the east coast.

Near term through Friday
As of 225 pm: the sfc pattern remains somewhat stagnant, with high
pressure extending from eastern canada down the appalachian chain,
while tropical storm jose remains over the western atlantic. The
high is associated with a sharp upper ridge. A shortwave trough is
present over the carolinas, with the axis of best dpva straddling
the region now, advecting south. Diurnal instability nonetheless
will drive scattered showers and t-storms over the mountains
this aftn. Expect these cells to drift south over time with weak
northerly steering flow. Models do indicate some expansion of
coverage in the southern sc ga zones later this aftn presumably
as the dpva exerts its influence. Dcapes are marginally indicative
of a severe wind threat, though sfc-midlevel delta-theta-e values
are not as remarkable; values are not as high as yesterday when
we did manage a couple severe wind hail events. I won't totally
rule one out today but the chance appears lower.

Cloud cover and pops will diminish with the end of diurnal heating
this evening. The high pressure will bring increasingly easterly
flow tonight but there is not enough low level moisture progged
to suggest nocturnal stratus will result. Mins will remain muggy
and well above normal. Mountain valley fog looks likely to result
once again, with patchy piedmont fog, though the latter is not
expected to be any more widespread than it was this morning.

Friday will be another day dominated by the incumbent weak high
pressure, featuring above-normal sfc temps. Thicknesses will be
slightly reduced, however, suggesting maxes 2-3 degrees cooler
than Thursday. Still, given recent model performance and plentiful
sunshine, I went toward the warm end of guidance. Modest instability
is progged, and the easterly flow will help initiate storms over
the higher terrain; weak subsidence most likely will cap off any
activity over the NW nc piedmont. A slight chance pop still is
warranted over the upstate and NE ga. Marginally dry profiles
imply an isolated severe storm could develop.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
As of 205 pm edt Thursday: a weak upper low over the carolinas will
sink south to the fl panhandle on Saturday as ridging strengthens
over the great lakes and mid-atlantic. The center of the ridge moves
east on Sunday and a ridge axis builds south toward the carolinas.

At the surface, weak high pressure slowly builds to the north then
noses southeast into the area through the period. This sets up weak
northeasterly flow across the area. Drier low level air moves in
from the NE on this flow and subsidence develops as maria moves
northward well off shore of ga and sc. Instability diminishes
through the period with the drying and subsidence. Expect some
lingering isolated convection across the mountains Saturday where
moisture is best and LFC levels will be low enough for convection to
develop. Dry conditions expected elsewhere on Saturday and all areas
Sunday. Highs and lows will be around 5 degrees above normal
Saturday then maybe drop a degree or two on Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 100 pm edt Thursday: dry and warm conditions will continue
into the start of the new workweek with ridging lingering atop the
southern appalachians. Temperatures will change little Monday and
Tuesday featuring readings 5 to 7 deg f above climo. By Wednesday,
even though the ridge center atop the NE CONUS gets pinched off, the
se CONUS remains in a subsidence regime between the northern plains
rocky mtn l vw trough and TC maria. At this point, there seems to
be enough S WV ridging lingering acrs the SE CONUS into the new day
7 for the fcst to remain dry. The streak of above normal
temperatures are expected to linger as well through the end of the
period.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
At kclt and elsewhere: little real change this period compared to
recent days. A shortwave trough is over the area at the start of
the period, and will slightly enhance convective initiation over the
upstate, in addition to terrain effects which are already producing
shra tsra over the mountains. Tempo tsra at kavl, with vcsh at
kand. The trough will gradually lose influence over the area as
it moves south and east tonight, with convection waning following
the loss of heating. Profiles remain rather dry and little cloud
cover is expected. There appears no reason not to expect valley
fog yet again. Kavl's chances will be enhanced if showers occur at
or INVOF the field this aftn. NE winds will veer a bit overnight
as high pressure exerts increasing influence from the north.

Outlook: chances for diurnally favored showers and thunderstorms
remain in the fcst again Friday, but precip chances are a bit lower
over the weekend and early next week. Fog and or low stratus are
likely to return in the mtn valleys each of the next few mornings.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 97% high 94%
kavl high 100% high 97% high 88% high 90%
khky high 100% high 100% high 97% high 97%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 97% high 97%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi53 min N 1.9 G 4.1 92°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi183 min SSW 4.1 G 6 86°F 1015.2 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi31 minNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F59°F38%1015.4 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi33 minN 710.00 miFair88°F60°F40%1017.3 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi29 minNE 510.00 miFair87°F64°F46%1015.4 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi30 minVar 310.00 miFair88°F63°F43%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmSW3S3SW3W3NW3NW4NW6NW3N4N6CalmN4N6N4N4NE73344NW6
1 day agoCalmCalmS3SW4SW4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmS3W5W64W7CalmW5N3Calm
2 days agoN5N6N34Calm3NW3CalmCalmCalmN5N5N3NW4NW3N6NE4E55NW4533W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.