Thursday, December13, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:13PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:59 PM EST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 10:59PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 132011
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
311 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Low pressure will push through the region bringing widespread rain
later tonight and continuing through Saturday or Saturday night. A
ridge of high pressure aloft is expected to build into the region
providing warmer and dry conditions early next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 305 pm est Thursday: a flood watch has been issued with this
forecast package for areas along and east of the blue ridge
escarpment eastward through the nc piedmont. This watch is in effect
from Friday morning through Saturday evening.

With high pressure over the northeast, frontal boundary off the
carolina coast, and upper troughing over the central us, conditions
have remained fairly quiet across the area today with plenty of
cirrus streaming overhead, ahead of the next approaching system.

Despite the gradual warming trend of temperatures today, with
current observations depicting mid to upper 40s to lower 50s, we
received plenty of reports from across our fa this morning that snow
remains on the ground in many places and, as a result, did
not expect too much in the way of melting today.

Into tonight, expect deepening upper disturbance over tx to become a
closed low and the system as a whole to become better organized,
with upper ridging shifting over the eastern us. At the same time,
models continue to trend with a typical insitu wedge setting across
the area overnight as well. With southwesterly flow allowing for
moisture return, expect precipitation to begin overnight tonight
across the SW portions of the area with isentropic lifting.

Overnight low temperatures look to stay just barely above freezing,
thus do not anticipate any wintry precipitation attm.

On Friday, the southern organized system within split flow will
continue to propagate eastward into the gulf states, with it's
associated cold front slow to lift through al ga as a warm front
curves up the carolina coast. With this, the overall story for early
Friday will be increasing chances for widespread rainfall from SW to
ne as better forcing comes into play, with overcast skies and high
temperatures climbing into the mid 40s across the nw
piedmont northern foothills, nearing 50 degrees towards the sse
portions of the fa, with insitu wedge in place.

Plenty of factors have been taken into consideration in regards to
the flooding potential for Friday and into the early portions of the
weekend - snow still on the ground in some areas potential runoff
issues, already wet soils from the past event, along with guidance
trending higher with QPF amounts and anomalous pwats, just to name a
few. Per latest guidance, anticipate precipitation to trend from sw
to NE through this event, again, beginning overnight tonight and
becoming widespread on Friday (cannot rule out a convective band or
two potentially expanding this far west with limited instability in
place), with the heaviest of precipitation expected to fall Friday
into Friday night. Some areas may be more susceptible to flash
flooding than others, which has been noted in the flash flood watch

Short term Friday night through Sunday
As of 240 pm est Thursday: an ongoing widespread precip event will
continue into the short range fcst. At 00z sat... The occluded sfc
cyclone will be centered over NRN al bringing very good moist flux
within sse ly sfc-h85 flow. Soundings show saturation thru
the column with pwats 3 times normal levels for this time of year.

The latest NAM continues to indicate quicker mlvl drying and the
possibility of 200-300 j kg of MUCAPE across the non mtns thru the
overnight. Went with a blend of the lower GFS and higher NAM mucape
values which gave a low-end chance of thunder before daybreak
associated with possible low-end convective bands traversing the
upstate and piedmont regions. This would not like create any overtly
organized convection... However the added lift will likely increase
rainfall rates within embedded meso bands. So... Suffice to say
another inch or so is probable across the SRN br as well as the ern
zones thru 18z sat. This will keep a hydro threat going... Which may
linger into Sun over some basins and streams.

Expect the precip to begin waning aft 18z over most areas except the
wrn nc mtns and areas north of the i40 corridor. The higher nc mtn
peaks will see some -snsh Sat night with little accums expected by
mid morning before switching over to light rain thru the period. Max
temps will be tricky Sat as the NE ly flow associated with the
retreating wedge veers S ly by mid day. With overcast skies and a
wet ground... Maxes will likely be held below normal levels. Sun will
see decent sunshine outside the mtns and MAX temps reach normal
levels or a bit above. Mins will be arnd normal Fri night and cooler
sat night with better cooling conds setting up.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 255 pm est Thursday: no sigfnt change were made to the going
fcst. The GEFS mean show little spread in a predictable deep h5
ridge pattern... While the latest op models show good run-to-run
continuity and agreement with each other. By late mon... A large
scale subs zone looks to build across the glakes while deep h5
ridging pulls down stg canadian high pressure over the midwest. This
high will continue to build southeast and be centered over the SE by
12z wed. Thus... Expect rather dry air thru the column with only
passing ci thru most of the period. A moist return flow doesn t
begin setting up until late in the period... So will keep the 7 day
fcst dry and introduce low pops Thu for continued analysis by the
next fcst shift. MAX temps will begin the period a cat or so abv
normal with a general cool down thru wed. With the clear skies and
low-end flow... Expect mins to drop a few degrees below normal.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
At kclt and elsewhere: expectVFR to prevail through this
evening at all TAF sites, with gradually deteriorating conditions
beginning late tonight and continuing through into Friday as
deepening low pressure system brings widespread -shra from SW to ne,
low CIGS and patchy areas of fog.

Conditions remain quiet across the area this afternoon, with light
ssw winds (aob 5 kts) and sct bkn cirrus streaming overhead as seen
from latest satellite imagery. Into tonight, anticipate insitu
wedge to setup across the piedmont, allowing for winds to become nne
overnight tonight into Friday at all TAF sites, with the exception
of kavl which will remain SE through the valid TAF period. Back to
the west, deepening low pressure over the southern plains will
continue to propagate towards the southeast, with increasing
moisture ahead of the system expected to spread over the region.

Thus, anticipate increasing -shra to begin late tonight and spread
from SW to NE across the area into Friday. This along with low cigs
and patchy areas of fog,VFR conditions through tonight will
gradually deteriorate to MVFR ifr. Gusty winds of 15 to 20 kts will
be possible into Friday afternoon.

Outlook: periods of moderate to heavy rain expect Friday evening
into Saturday with area of low pressure tracking across the
southeast. Drier conditions will return on Sunday, as the storm
system exits to the east.

Confidence table...

20-02z 02-08z 08-14z 14-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 85% high 94%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 93% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 91% high 83% high 98%
khky high 100% high 95% med 76% high 96%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 93% high 100%
kand high 100% high 89% med 79% high 96%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi89 min SE 4.1 G 7 58°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi39 min E 6 G 7 56°F 1023.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi67 minNNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F35°F53%1025.1 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair50°F35°F58%1025.7 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi65 minNNE 410.00 miFair50°F33°F52%1025 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi66 minNNE 410.00 miFair55°F33°F44%1025.9 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi65 minNNE 610.00 miFair52°F36°F55%1025 hPa

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4CalmNW3CalmS6CalmS3S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmSE5S33Calm3CalmCalmCalmNW3
1 day agoSW4S3SW4SW6SW3CalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalm3E5E5SE5S5S6S4
2 days agoNE4NE6N3CalmN4N4N3CalmCalmN3CalmNW3N3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmW3W4W6W5W8SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.