Wednesday, September19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:25PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 4:11 PM EDT (20:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:30PMMoonset 1:00AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 191920
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
320 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Dry and warm high pressure transitions from west to east
across our region into the weekend. A weak cold front drops toward
the area from the north on Monday. A stronger cold front is forecast
to approach our region late next week with cooler temperatures.

Near term through Thursday
As of 2:30pm edt Wednesday: should be a fairly quiet evening and
overnight as upper ridge and reduced bl moisture will greatly reduce
changes for any convection. Surface analysis shows some sbcape, but
little mlcape. High-res models are stingy with producing any
showers and radar satellite is not too supportive either, with only
a couple isolated showers currently on radar across the cwa.

Satellite shows scattered cumulus over the mountains and foothills,
with some of these likely to become showers later, with a rapid
decline around sunset. Cam guidance has the greatest chance for
showers around 4pm, with activity (what little there may be) in
decline after 5pm.

Synoptically, area is behind broad frontal zone that made it through
the area on Tuesday. This front is now out in the atlantic. Winds
are light north-northwesterly behind the front, which has reduced
surface dewpoints a bit and led to morning lows at the coolest level
we have seen in several weeks, though still well above seasonal
levels. Generally clear skies and increase in ridge strength will
keep highs around 10 degrees above normal today and tomorrow. Winds
are expected to become more northeasterly, though remain light, as
surface ridge develops east of the mountains. This ridge appears
that it will not be long-lived enough for any significant wedge-flow
to develop, as it moves east of the area by Thursday evening, ahead
of the next major upstream system that moves into the central plains.

Some moisture recovery is expected on Thursday, and cams have better
coverage of afternoon showers and possible thunder Thursday
afternoon. Capping inversion is also expected to be stronger on
Thursday and cams restrict showers largely to the mountains where
the cap is more likely to be overcome.

With clear skies and calm winds overnight, dense fog seen this
morning in mountain valleys looks likely to repeat tomorrow morning,
with some patchy fog elsewhere.

Short term Thursday night through Friday
As of 245 pm edt Wednesday: high pressure ridge extends down into
the area from the northeast for the short term. Moisture is high,
though due the initial on-shore SE flow. The flow gradient will
relax a little on fri. The low level stability does lower in the
afternoon with temps 5-10f above normal. But, the big ridge aloft
will make it difficult for any deep convection to occur. We will
keep pops near nil, but a stray shower is slightly possible.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
As of 300 pm edt Wednesday: the forecast remains highly consistent.

A cold front drops down from the north but can't finish it's trek to
the coast due to the big ridge aloft and only a weak push of
coldness. The front lays out west to east and stalls just to our
north. The ec keeps the front much farther to the north than does
the GFS and GEFS mean slp. It would keep most if not all of the
showers in nc. But, the change was not great enough to stray far
from the previous shift's solution. With the proximity of the front
and deepening persistent SE S flow, the chances of showers storms
increases each day. Confidence in the forecast is medium due to the
upper flow and sfc flow seemingly agreed upon by the models. We
can't crack into a higher category of confidence due to the
questionable southerly advance of the front.

Temps should remain above normal through the weekend, but are nearly
normal in the first half of the new week.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: fairly quiet weather with the main issue
being valley fog Thursday morning. Area is well behind a front that
went through on Tuesday and is now out in the atlantic. Winds are
generally light north-northwesterly behind the front and become more
northerly to north-northeasterly on Thursday as surface high
pressure develops just east of the mountains. Upper pattern shows
increased ridging through Thursday that will help to suppress any
chances for precipitation, though some widely scattered showers (too
few to be worth mentioning in the tafs) will be possible over the
mountains tomorrow afternoon. With very light to calm winds
overnight and clear skies, good radiational cooling should result in
some fog in the morning, particularly in mountain valleys. Areas
prone to fog this morning had visibility down to 1 4 mile this
morning, a pattern likely to repeat Thursday morning.

Outlook: anticipate diurnal showers and thunderstorms this weekend
with possible brief restrictions. ExpectVFR conditions outside of
the possibility of overnight fog focused across mountain valleys.

Confidence table...

19-01z 01-07z 07-13z 13-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 96% med 66% high 93%
khky high 100% high 100% high 96% high 96%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi41 min N 6 G 8.9 93°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi51 min Calm G 2.9 88°F 1013.5 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi79 minN 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F64°F46%1014.7 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi81 minNNW 510.00 miFair88°F62°F43%1016.3 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi77 minNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds89°F66°F47%1014.6 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi78 minN 1010.00 miA Few Clouds88°F62°F42%1014.7 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi77 minVar 510.00 miFair89°F66°F47%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW6NW5CalmCalmNW3NW4N5N5N6N5NW4NW4NW4NW3CalmN5NW5NW4N53N7N9N10N6
1 day agoSW9SW11SW5SW4SW4S3S4SW7SW4CalmW4W3W4SW3CalmW3NW3NW5NW7W54N6N11NW9
2 days agoE9E11SE10SE10SE10SE12SE12S10SE12S12S9S9S7S4S5S9S10S11S9S10SW12SW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.