Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:40 AM   Moonset 10:21 AM

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AMZ154 S Of Cape Hatteras To Ocracoke Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm Including The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary- 713 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 3 ft at 13 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 12 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and ne 3 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 2 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 713 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 300837 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 437 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Mid/upper level ridging will shift offshore today as a shortwave shifts east out of the TN Valley. Despite continued low-level moisture advection, the combination of residual subsidence and warm temps aloft are expected to keep the risk of showers at a minimum again today as the seabreeze moves inland.
Yesterday the chance of showers was close to zero. Today it will be about 5-10%. Once again, temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid 80s inland(~10 degrees above normal), and the 70s along the coast (close to normal).

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

SFC low pressure is forecast to pass south of Southern New England tonight, with an associated weak frontal boundary moving slowly east from the Appalachians to the Carolinas and Virginia. A modest LLJ is forecast to develop ahead of the advancing front, with steady low- mid level moistening expected through the night. Mid-level lapse rates will be weakening with time, but a deepening layer of moisture appears supportive of a zone of weak instability (250-500j/kg MUCAPE) developing ahead of the front and an upper level shortwave approaching from the west. Large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to be on the weak side, but a weak coastal trough moving inland plus modest low-mid level convergence appears supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from coastal SC northeast through SE NC after midnight. Weak effective shear (~20kt) and weak instability is expected to limit any severe weather potential tonight. Where thunderstorms manage to develop, rainfall amounts as high as 0.25-0.50" will be possible.
Otherwise, amounts are forecast to be less than 0.10".

With increasing clouds, and steady boundary layer moistening, temperatures tonight are expected to be very mild for late April, only dropping into the mid 60s. For perspective, normal lows this time of year are in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Inland highs in the low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then an unsettled weekend and start to the new week

FORECAST DETAILS

A shortwave trough will move east across the area on Wednesday and support shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%). As for severe potential, the threat appears low but non-zero with the high CAPE/low shear environment being painted by the CAMs. Highs will reach the low 80s with dew points in the low 60s, which will generate plenty of instability to support thunderstorms. The CAMs are showing large MUCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg but weak effective shear. However, it should be noted that the CAMs are showing a higher amount of shear than they were 24 hours ago.
This is especially true along counties south of HWY 70 near the coast, so this will be a trend to keep an eye on.

We return to warm, dry weather on Thursday and Friday with a ridge building over the southeast US. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the coastal plain and low 70s at the beaches.

Unsettled weather returns this weekend with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will be gradually washed out as a surface low forms due to a shortwave trough moving across the southeast. At the same time, a cold front associated with a deep low over south-central Canada will move into our area and stall. PoPs increase west to east on Saturday with shower and thunderstorm activity possible through Monday (15-30% chance).

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...

As of 145 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub VFR conditions possible overnight (30-50% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

The main forecast challenge over the next 6-8 hours will be the potential for BR/FG/low stratus. With high pressure offshore to the southeast of Eastern NC, a moistening low-level flow is ongoing from the Atlantic into the Carolinas. Within this flow, there is evidence on satellite imagery of some attempt at FG or stratus from coastal SC north into SE NC. While moisture advection overnight is expected to be stronger than this time 24 hrs ago, it's still unclear whether or not the depth of moisture will be sufficient for impactful sub- VFR conditions or not. For now, I've kept the TAFs as-is, with no changes to the 00z TAFs (regarding the fog/stratus potential). Stay tuned for amendments if needed.

Any fog or stratus that develops is expected to mix out with daytime heating on Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, gusty S to SW winds up to ~20kt are likely with daytime mixing and the passage of the seabreeze. With increasing moisture, I expect more cumulus with the seabreeze today, but the risk of SHRA still appears low (<10% chance). Late Tuesday evening, continued moisture advection is expected to lead to the development of mid-level CIGs ahead of an upper level wave approaching from the west. There will be a chance of SHRA and TSRA with this wave, but not until after the current 06z TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the period but a few instances of unsettled weather are expected. An approaching disturbance will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday (30-60%). By Saturday, a cold front will be moving into the area and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms (15-30%). Lowered CIGs and VIS are expected during these times.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Background northeasterly long-period swell continues through tonight, and will combine with a modest southerly wind swell, producing seas of 3-5 ft. Like yesterday, breezy southwesterly winds of 10-20kt will be common through tonight, with a few gusts to near 25kt where the thermal gradient in maximized.
Because of the marginal nature of the winds, we'll continue to run headline-free.

Late tonight, an upper level disturbance and a developing weak coastal trough is expected to support an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms, especially for the southern waters/rivers/sounds.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms

FORECAST DETAILS

Although marine conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria, opportunities for showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and this weekend. Winds will be variable through the period due to several systems moving through but will remain around 5-10 kt with 2-4 ft seas.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Hatteras (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:20 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:48 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Hatteras (fishing pier), North Carolina, Tide feet

Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:17 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:52 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:44 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Tide feet

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