Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atkins, AR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:02PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:59 PM CST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 10:50PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atkins, AR
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location: 35.25, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Fxus64 klzk 132111
afdlzk
area forecast discussion
national weather service little rock ar
311 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018

Discussion
12z subjective RAOB analysis showed a strong shortwave trough over
the southern high plains with 500dm height falls of 10 to 11 dm
over the texas panhandle. At the 850 mb level a dew point of 10
deg c was observed over shreveport with a south-southwest wind of
20 kts. The 700 mb upper low was located in between the 500 mb
intersection of the trough and the 850 mb low pressure system
which was centered over central oklahoma. The vertical tilt of the
low pressure system to the west combined with the strong 500 mb
height falls to the east both suggest strong differential positive
vorticity advection (dpva) was sending large scale forcing for
ascent over texas and oklahoma this morning.

The warm and moist air advection over arkansas noted at the 850
mb level led to widespread rain shower activity throughout the day
today, and will continue to do so through this evening. From the 7
to 500 mb level the temperature difference was only 17 deg c, so
mid-level lapse rates were only slightly steeper than moist
adiabatic with saturation or near saturation noted up through the
dendritic growth zone. The moisture in the dendritic growth zone
will lead to efficient rainfall production, and could lead to
lightning... However the meager lapse rates combined with
persistent latent heat release will likely keep lapse rates near
moist adiabatic limiting the potential for free convection and
charge separation in these rain showers. As a result, kept thunder
out of the forecast and expect numerous to widespread rain showers
to continue through tonight.

Due to the relatively efficient nature of the rainfall production,
localized flash flooding will remain possible wherever rainfall
trains through tonight. Decided against going with a flash flood
watch because widespread flash flooding is not expected with local
river levels relatively low, and reservoir capacity is high
keeping the flooding potential in check and generally away from
people's homes and off of major roadways. Rainfall rates of one
half inch to one inch per hour are expected, but this is within
the heavier bands of rainfall. Rainfall will be on and off for
most locations also limiting the widespread flooding potential.

Rainfall will continue on Friday as the strong dpva spreads over
arkansas and warm, humid air advection continues, but from the
east in more of a trough of warm air aloft (trowal) configuration
as opposed to the warm sector gulf isentropic lift that we're
experiencing today. The cold core of the upper low will move over
far southeast arkansas Friday afternoon and evening, and we may
have to watch out for some isolated hailers within this cold core
region tomorrow afternoon. Do not expect severe storms, but if
anything approaches severe levels, hail will really be the only
threat. Expect that if any hail does form, it will remain small in
nature and closer to sleet size than severe (quarter) size.

Temperatures will hardly change at all over the next 24 hours as
nearly persistent rainfall will keep temperatures in the low 50s
across much of the state. Rain will clear out on Saturday as the
upper low pulls off to the east, leaving large scale forcing for
subsidence in its wake. It will be chilly Saturday night into
Sunday morning under clear skies as the upper level system is
replaced by weak ridging aloft. Sunday looks to be a nice day to
get outdoors though with highs in the upper 50s under mostly
clear sunny skies.

After the weekend... A complex upper level low pressure system will
move through the subtropical jet and approach arkansas mid to late
in the week ahead. This means that Monday through Wednesday look
to remain dry for now, with rain moving in maybe Wednesday evening
and remaining in the forecast through the day on Thursday. This
next upper level storm system appears to be a quick mover and
should be out of the area by Friday leading to mostly clear skies
as we head into next weekend.

Cavanaugh

Preliminary point temps pops
Batesville ar 49 52 42 51 90 100 70 40
camden ar 54 57 44 56 90 80 50 10
harrison ar 45 47 37 51 90 90 70 20
hot springs ar 53 55 42 55 100 90 60 10
little rock ar 52 54 44 55 100 90 60 20
monticello ar 53 57 44 54 90 70 50 20
mount ida ar 52 54 41 55 100 90 60 10
mountain home ar 46 48 38 50 100 90 80 30
newport ar 50 52 44 50 80 90 70 40
pine bluff ar 53 55 44 53 100 90 50 20
russellville ar 53 55 42 55 100 90 60 20
searcy ar 51 53 43 53 90 90 60 30
stuttgart ar 52 54 45 53 90 90 60 30

Lzk watches warnings advisories None.

Short long term... Cavanaugh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Russelville Municipal Airport, AR5 mi67 minE 510.00 miLight Rain53°F51°F93%1008.5 hPa

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Last 24hrE3SE3E3E5E74E65E4E5----E54E6E54E5E6E7NE3Calm4E5
1 day agoS9S6S8S6S5CalmCalmSE3S3CalmSE3CalmS3S3E3NE3S5S6S7SW6S8S73S3
2 days agoW4W3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW86S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Little Rock, AR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Little Rock, AR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.