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FXUS64 KLZK 031851 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 151 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Currently, showers and thunderstorms have since weakened and/or pushed out of the CWA Rain chances still prevail across portions of eastern and southeastern Arkansas. CAMs shows the possibility of additional pop-up showers and thunderstorms over portions of southern and northern Arkansas later this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be spotty and should dissipate shortly after sunset.

The pattern is expected to remain somewhat unsettled through the short term as weak disturbances push through the state. The next best chance of rain and thunderstorms will return Saturday afternoon as a weak shortwave moves across the state bringing the possibility of afternoon thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather appears to remain low at this time.

Sunday brings a better chance of widespread rain across the state as another disturbance moves through. Rain is likely across western locations Sunday morning pushing from southwest to northeast across the state through Sunday evening. Once again, severe weather is expected to remain on the low end...however, gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out with these storms.

Overall, QPF could be up to a half an inch across much of the state with some areas possibly seeing between one to two inches depending where the strongest storms pop-up.

Temperatures are expected to be warmest on Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to drop into the 70s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s through the period.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

An unsettled weather pattern takes hold into the day on Monday and will remain in place for much of the long-term forecast period. On Monday an upper lvl negatively tilted trof axis approaches the Central Plains region of the CONUS in conjunction with a sfc low pressure center positioned across the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with an attendant southward extending cold front and dryline that will initiate storms on Monday. A parameter space of strong southerly sfc flow which will advect warm air temperatures and appreciable dewpoint temperatures into the state setting the table for the possibility of severe weather across much of the state will take place. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already outlined a slight risk for severe weather across portions of the CWA with possible upgrades to come in future outlooks closer to Tuesday.
Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Tuesday. It will become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be, but the parameter space across the CWA will be primed for all hazards of severe weather.

Into Tuesday, an upper lvl closed low positions over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with a pronounced southern stream of which will include a 70 to 80 knot jet axis will be present over the state. At the sfc, the same parameter space will exist from Monday with the addition of upper lvl dynamics in place and closer sfc lvl features including: a localized low pressure center across Oklahoma and attendant southward extending dryline with a cold front approaching from the northwest as a result from the parent sfc low pressure center fixated across the Northern Plains region of the CONUS. Again, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), on Wednesday has outlined a slight risk for severe weather which includes a large portion of the state of Arkansas. Expect a second round of severe weather on Wednesday, with this severe weather threat looking to be a larger area that includes most of the CWA Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Wednesday. It will become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be, but the region across the CWA and most of the state will be suspect to all hazards of severe weather.

THURSDAY/NEXT FRIDAY:

A series of multiple Sits move over Arkansas during this period in tandem with a cold front that begins to move across the state on Thursday into Next Friday. Expect several rounds of rain and thunderstorms over this three day period of unsettled weather. It remains to be determined if the ingredients will be in place to pose a threat for severe weather.

Over the period in terms of temperatures, with respect to both low and high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal compared to climatological normals over the same timeframe.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR to VFR conditions persist around the state currently. All terminals will gradually improve to VFR conditions through the afternoon hours today as CIGs lift and skies clear. Some light showers will possible this evening across northern terminals.
Additional rounds of rain will be possible through early next week. FG will be possible tonight for central terminals where winds become calm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 63 83 64 78 / 30 50 40 90 Camden AR 63 84 64 78 / 30 50 30 70 Harrison AR 61 80 60 72 / 10 60 40 80 Hot Springs AR 64 82 64 75 / 30 50 40 80 Little Rock AR 66 85 67 79 / 30 40 40 80 Monticello AR 65 85 67 81 / 30 40 30 70 Mount Ida AR 63 81 63 75 / 30 50 50 90 Mountain Home AR 61 81 62 74 / 10 60 30 80 Newport AR 64 83 65 79 / 30 50 30 80 Pine Bluff AR 64 84 66 78 / 30 40 40 80 Russellville AR 63 83 64 76 / 20 50 30 80 Searcy AR 63 83 65 79 / 30 50 30 80 Stuttgart AR 66 83 67 78 / 40 50 30 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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