Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dardanelle, AR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:08PM Saturday September 23, 2017 1:01 PM CDT (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:14AMMoonset 8:29PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dardanelle, AR
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location: 35.25, -93.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Fxus64 klzk 231706
afdlzk
area forecast discussion
national weather service little rock ar
1206 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Aviation
High pressure parked over the region will keep light southeast
winds over the area through sunset. WidespreadVFR conditions are
expected with only afternoon cumulus field expected. Patchy fog is
possible around day break at kpbf and kadf for brief MVFR
conditions.

Prev discussion (issued 650 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017)
update...

update to include the 12z aviation discussion. Remainder of
forecast remains on track with another warm, dry day in store.

Aviation...

for the 12z TAF cycle... Patchy br fg this morning will give way to
prevailingVFR with sct diurnal cumulus around 5 kft. Surface
ridge axis draped northeast to southwest across northern ar will
keep winds SE ely under 10 kts through the day. Winds will relax
after sunset with skies clearing and another shot at patchy br
after 24 05z.

Prev discussion... (issued 429 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017)
short term... Today through Sunday night
no significant changes to the going persistence forecast for the
first half of the period. Elongated upper ridge still stretches
from the great lakes southwestward to central tx and will move
little during the day today. H850 temps still pushing 18-19c, so
highs expected to remain above average through the afternoon.

Hi-res guidance in good agreement this morning concerning the
position of upper level and surface features and progs have the
surface ridge axis draped over the northern half of the forecast
area, keeping most of the area in E SE surface flow through the
period.

A weak upper low will retrograde west Sunday as the main upper
ridge finally begins pushing northeast. Gradual mid-level height
falls will allow this feature to slowly push toward SE ar before
sliding back east next week. Cloud cover will increase as a
result, and at least slight chance thunder is possible Sunday
afternoon evening as strong subsidence aloft finally begins to
abate. H850 temps finally back off some to around 16c so kept
highs slightly cooler Sunday afternoon.

Good agreement among NAM hrrr rap guidance, so weighted model
blend heavily in favor of their output. Also utilized a more
general blend of ECMWF gfs guidance, especially Sunday Sunday
night.

Long term... Monday through Friday
there remains little change in the overall details of the long term
portion of the forecast. I can't think of any more creative ways to
phrase things without sounding like a broken record, but here goes...

isolated diurnal convection will be noted Monday, as the upper low
remains near the region. However, this will get absorbed into the
mean flow by Tuesday, with ridging attempting to reassert itself. My
gut feeling is that most of the area will remain dry.

Ridge's influence will begin to wane by Wednesday, and this will
allow a frontal boundary to move into the region from the plains.

Best bet on the front's timing will be during the day Wednesday.

Behind the front, we may see falling temperatures in the northwest.

However, ahead of the front, temperatures will be well into the 80s,
and may even hit 90 in a few places. Of course, with the gift of pre-
frontal compression, there may be a few temperature gotchas, which
can happen this time of year (meaning a few places could hit mid 90s
or warmer before the frontal passage).

With the front, rain chances will increase. That being said, low-
level moisture return ahead of the front will not be that
impressive, given winds will be mostly out of the east or southeast.

In fact, precipitation, if any, will likely be post-frontal as an
upper system moves around the periphery of the ridge and interacts
with the boundary.

Fortunately, cooler air will be moving in behind the front. I'm
almost giddy to say this, but, temperatures will end the period
below seasonal averages. It will feel like fall again! Here's hoping
it stays around a little longer this time.&&
fire weather...

humidity will be low behind the front later in the week, with
afternoon minimums creeping down below 40 percent Friday and likely
into the weekend. Gradient between high pressure pushing in and
the front moving away from the area will elevate winds. Since the
first of september, rainfall in all but the extreme eastern
portion of arkansas is running less than 50% of normal. The dry
conditions, elevated winds, and low humidity will add to an
increasing wildfire danger.

Lzk watches warnings advisories None.

Aviation... 56


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Russelville Municipal Airport, AR7 mi68 minE 410.00 miFair89°F66°F48%1015.8 hPa

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Last 24hr35SE5CalmE5CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4SE5
1 day ago5S7S7SE5SE53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5W53
2 days agoSW7S7
G14
6S7S8SE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE33SE3--S4SE64

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Little Rock, AR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Little Rock, AR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.