Thursday, October19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Dardanelle, AR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:32PM Thursday October 19, 2017 9:18 AM CDT (14:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:05AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dardanelle, AR
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location: 35.25, -93.23     debug

Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Fxus64 klzk 191058 aaa
area forecast discussion... Update
national weather service little rock ar
600 am cdt Thu oct 19 2017

OverallVFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours.

There will be some patchy fog early Thursday, with patchy areas of
MVFR and very isolated ifr may be seen. After sunrise Thursday, any
fog will dissipate quickly. Winds will start light and variable or
light southeast, then become south to southeast at 5 to 12 mph with
some higher gusts in the afternoon. (59)

Prev discussion issued 315 am cdt Thu oct 19 2017
main concerns in this forecast cycle are low in the short term,
with a dry forecast and warming trend. Fire weather concerns
continue with continued overall dry weather for several weeks and
low amounts of rain. The ar forestry commission has a moderate to
high wildfire danger over ar with several county burn bans. A
chance of convection will be in the forecast over the weekend to
early next week with a possible weather system affecting the
region. The threat of any strong to severe storms may develop over
the weekend as the storm system moves through the region.

Currently, surface high pressure is centered to the east of ar and
remains the main feature over the region. Aloft the upper high
pressure ridge was over the southern plains. This will keep the
short term forecast dry with warming afternoon temperatures. Skies
were mostly clear with some high clouds streaming in over ar from
the west. Patchy fog was also seen in spots. Morning temperatures
were from the upper 40s to upper 50s. A dry atmosphere was also
over ar, with dew point temperatures in the 40s. The 00z klzk
sounding had a precip water value of less than half an inch. Light
and variable to light southeast winds were seen over the area.

Short term Today through Friday night
the forecast will stay dry in the short term with overall high
pressure the main influence over the region. Relative humidity
values will gradually increase through Friday, with a south wind
flow, and south wind flow into ar, and dew point temperatures
will reach the 50s by Friday. Aloft, the upper high pressure ridge
will gradually move east into the weekend, and allow upper short
wave energy to move into ar. Isolated convection may develop over
far western ar Friday afternoon to Friday night ahead of the main
system over the weekend. Precip water values reach over 1 inch
Friday night to Saturday ahead of the main system. Temperatures
will stay warm Friday and be above normal values. Wildfire
concerns will continue.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
an upper ridge will be in place over the sern CONUS at the start of
the long term period... With a large scale upper trough traversing
the rockies Sat morning. This puts ar in SW flow aloft... And srly
sfc flow will be increasing throughout the day sat. Moisture
levels will increase as a result... With dewpts rising from the 50s
back into the 60s by Sat evening. This will be ahead of an
approaching cold front that will drop SE towards ar Sat night. As
the front approaches... The upper level trough looks to strengthen
as it moves ese over the plains towards ar... With widespread
shra tsra developing along and ahead of the cold front to the nw
of ar Sat afternoon. This activity will then drop SE into ar late
sat night into early Sun morning... With the best potential for
shra tsra across the nwrn third of the CWA by sunrise sun.

The convective activity to the west NW of the state Sat afternoon
looks to be fairly strong... With some strong to svr thunderstorms
expected in the slight and enhanced outlook areas to the west of ar.

As the cold front moves closer and upper trough deepens further into
an upper closed low... The potential for seeing strong to svr storms
overnight in WRN and nwrn ar has increased. While still a bit early
to get details on overall svr threats... Early indications are that
damaging winds will be the primary hazards possible as the
convective activity looks to form into a convective line or complex
as it moves E SE towards ar. Some large hail may also be possible.

The threat for tornadoes... While not great... Will be possible given
some decent 0-1 km srh. However... The overnight inversion may be
strong enough to keep the threat more isolated.

The cold front will then move into the state on sun... With more of
the CWA seeing showers and thunderstorms. This may bring some good
widespread rainfall for the many areas that have been in rainfall
deficit over the past several weeks. The amount of rainfall expected
from late Sun and beyond remains uncertain as the med range model
guidance continues to disagree in timing of the upper low exiting
the region. The ECMWF and GFS has actually swapped their respective
solutions... With GFS now the more progressive solution with the
ecmwf the slower solution. However... They both have a similar
scenario with an upper closed low forming verses only the gfs
showing a closed low this time yesterday. As a result... Keep some
lingering pops into Mon for many areas... With precip ending by tue.

By Tue and for the rest of the forecast... Will see dry conditions
and cool temps as a new upper trough closed low dive SE across the
plains and over the region. This looks to be a much deeper upper low
and fairly strong cold front where temps may eventually become the
coolest so far this season. As for additional precip
potential... There looks to be no time for any moisture return before
this new storm system and cold front move into the region to see any
decent shot for precip. As a result... Expect the forecast to remain
dry from Tue through thu.

Preliminary point temps pops
Batesville ar 79 52 79 57 0 0 0 10
camden ar 80 53 82 61 0 0 0 20
harrison ar 80 52 79 58 0 0 0 20
hot springs ar 80 53 79 61 0 0 0 20
little rock ar 80 53 81 60 0 0 0 10
monticello ar 80 54 82 60 0 0 0 10
mount ida ar 80 52 78 61 0 0 10 20
mountain home ar 81 51 79 57 0 0 0 10
newport ar 80 52 80 57 0 0 0 10
pine bluff ar 81 52 80 60 0 0 0 10
russellville ar 80 51 78 59 0 0 0 20
searcy ar 80 50 80 57 0 0 0 10
stuttgart ar 81 53 80 59 0 0 0 10

Lzk watches warnings advisories None.

Short term... 59 long term... 62

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Russelville Municipal Airport, AR7 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair54°F53°F97%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from RUE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalm365E53Calm3E3SE3SE43SE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS53E85Calm3SE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN4E645--N6CalmNE6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Little Rock, AR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Little Rock, AR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.