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FXUS64 KLZK 261950 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Looking at the big picture, a broad upper level trof will remain over the western 2/3 of the country, with several vigorous shortwaves rotating thru the trof and lifting into the upper Plains.
The overall pattern thru the period will remain southwesterly aloft with several shortwaves rippling thru the flow.

At the surface, the forecast area is now entirely in the warm sector, with a warm front north of the area in MO, and a dryline located over OK. There has been quite a bit of cloud cover and convection across portions of the state this morning into early this afternoon. Of note is an area of partial clearing extending from south-central AR up to NE Arkansas where temperatures are a bit warmer than surrounding regions.

Models have been all over the place on instability forecasts for this afternoon and evening. Observations show quite a bit of instability in eastern OK, but I believe the model forecast instability over the western portions of AR are very questionable, considering the extensive cloud cover and earlier convective activity.

As for the potential for severe weather this afternoon and tonight, I am adopting more of a wait and see approach. With the model instability forecasts all over the board, and sim radar forecasts quite diverse, I feel like the most realistic scenario will be a band of convection over western AR extending into north-central AR, with the possibility of a second band developing from SW Arkansas into NE Arkansas.

We have collectively been discussing the possibility for instability being high enough for severe convection this afternoon and tonight.
Our thoughts are that there may be a narrow window of opportunity late this afternoon into early evening, but if stronger convection does not develop by then...it likely will not get going in AR.

Severe chances will be on the slate again on Sunday...where it looks like chances will be much better over a greater portion of the state.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Main feature in the long term will be a storm system in the Plains dragging a cold front toward Arkansas Sunday night. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread, and some storms could be severe in the west. This will be a heavy rain event, with two to more than three inch amounts possible. Some flash flooding will likely result if this much precipitation materializes.

The system will track toward the upper Midwest and well to the north. The front will become parallel to a quasizonal flow, and will stall across the region. This will keep the pattern somewhat unsettled in the days to follow, with mostly diurnal convection expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should pop up each afternoon, and pretty much dissipate after dark.

By Thursday, large scale troughing will build this way from the Rockies. A new cold front will try to push through from the northwest, and will bring better chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Slightly cooler and drier air will follow the front on Friday.
Otherwise, above average temperatures are expected overall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 66 82 66 79 / 70 60 20 50 Camden AR 66 84 66 81 / 70 30 10 50 Harrison AR 62 78 63 72 / 20 40 50 90 Hot Springs AR 65 82 66 78 / 80 50 30 70 Little Rock AR 68 85 67 82 / 70 50 20 60 Monticello AR 69 86 66 84 / 50 20 0 30 Mount Ida AR 64 81 64 76 / 60 60 40 80 Mountain Home AR 63 79 64 75 / 50 50 30 80 Newport AR 67 84 66 81 / 50 50 10 40 Pine Bluff AR 68 85 65 82 / 70 30 10 40 Russellville AR 64 82 65 77 / 70 70 40 80 Searcy AR 65 84 63 80 / 70 60 20 50 Stuttgart AR 69 84 66 81 / 70 40 10 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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