Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McKittrick, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:50PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:15 PM PST (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:21PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 910 Am Pst Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 8 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 8 to 10 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 8 to 10 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 910 Am Pst Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 17z...or 9 am pst, a 1040 mb high was located over the eastern pacific and a 1011 mb low was over the four corners area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McKittrick, CA
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location: 35.33, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 201850
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1050 am pst Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis 20 751 am.

Today will be cloudy with a chance of showers and mountain snow
as another storm system moves into the region. The chance of rain
and snow lasts through Thursday, and cold temperatures could lead
to snow at lower elevations. Dry weather is expected by Friday,
and temperatures will gradually warm into next week.

Short term (tdy-fri) 20 949 am.

Forecast appears to be in pretty good shape. The only potential
modification might be with the primarily north northwest flow
it's going to be tougher for showers (at least measurable showers)
to survive the track across the transverse ranges and into
southern sb and ventura counties as strong downsloping to the lee
of the mountains will dissipate at least some of the precip. But
the extremely cold air aloft and instability might offset that to
some degree so it's likely all areas will get at least some
sprinkles if not periods of brief heavy rain hail graupel and
even snow down to unusually low elevations.

***from previous discussion***
skies will be sunny for most of the area this morning. Clouds will
increase this afternoon as a weak but cold system moves into the
area from the north. There is a good chance of showers over slo
and sba county but only a 20 to 30 percent chc of showers for la
and vta counties. No end in sight for the much below MAX temps
with todays cst vly temps struggling to even hit 60.

Showers will be likely for most of the area tonight. This storm
does not have much moisture to work with due to its overland
trajectory so rainfall and snowfall amounts will not be that
great. The big story will be the snow levels which will fall to
about 2500 feet. All of the mtns passes including i-5 and i-14
will have snow. Due to the upslope northerly flow from kern
county the i-5 corridor will see the most snow.

Thursday will be a very interesting weather day. Some of the
coldest air in many years will enter the area from the ne. This
system originated in alberta canada and traveled over land so
there was no opportunity for the relatively warm ocean waters to
modify the cold air mass. Thickness values will fall to between
about 527 dm and 500 mb temperatures will fall to around -35
degrees celsius. This system will likely bring the lowest snow
levels seen in many years. The very cold air aloft will help to
destabilize the atmosphere and will bring the threat of brief
heavy downpours, small hail, and even a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Rainfall amounts are expected rather variable due to the showery
nature of the system but in general will be less than 0.25 inches
across coastal valley areas, with between 0.25 and 0.50 inches
across foothills and mountains. However, there will likely be
locally higher totals for areas that receive the brief heavier
showers or thunderstorms.

Snow levels will eventually lowering to between 2000 and 2500 and
locally down to 1500 feet on Thursday. Snow amounts are expected
to range between 1 to 3 inches for the mountains and foothills
above 2500 feet, except local 3 to 6 inch accumulations possible
for the eastern san gabriels. Elevations between 1500 and 2500
feet (including the antelope valley, cuyama valley, san luis
obispo interior valleys, santa monica mountains, higher valleys of
la ventura counties, and coastal foothills) could potentially see
a dusting to minor accumulations of snow. Winter weather advisories
are in effect for all of the mountains, antelope valley, cuyama
valley, and san luis obispo county interior valleys where there
will be a higher probability of accumulating snowfall. Major low
elevation roadways at risk for snow showers and icy road conditions
with this event include interstate 5 from the grapevine to santa
clarita valley, highways 14 and 138 through the antelope valley
and soledad canyon, highway 33 above ojai, highway 154 above san
marcos pass, highway 166 through cuyama valley, and highways 41,
46, and 58 across interior portions of slo county.

Max temps across the csts and vlys will only be in the 50s.

The system will wind down later in the afternoon and in the
evening on Thursday and by early morning Friday skies will be
mostly clear.

Dry NW flow aloft sets up on Friday. Skies will be mostly sunny.

Max temps will warm but most MAX temps across the coasts and vly
will still be in the upper 50s although there will be a few 60 or
61 degree readings.

Long term (sat-tue) 20 230 am.

Both the GFS and the ec agree that the extended period will be
rather dull. The dry NW flow will slowly turn more westerly as a
cold trof in canada pushes down into washington state. It looks
like there will be a fair amount of high clouds in the flow so
skies will be partly cloudy for most of the period. Hgts should
remain below normal through Monday, but not that much below
normal. MAX temps will follow suit and will be about 3 to 6
degrees blo normal. On Tuesday the GFS keep cooler air over the
area while the ec increase the hgts with a small ridge moving
up from mexico. Brought a warming trend into the forecast but not
as robust as the ec soln.

Aviation 20 1849z.

At 1800z, there was no marine inversion at klax.

Moderate confidence in 18z TAF package. A cold and unstable air
mass will bring bkn CIGS and a threat of showers to all sites from
late this morning through tonight. Shower threat will start north
of point conception late this morning then spreading to areas
south of point conception from mid-afternoon through tonight. Cigs
are generally anticipated to remain atVFR level (bkn040-060) but
there is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGS this afternoon through
tonight. Additionally, there will be some gusty westerly winds
along the coast and across the antelope valley this afternoon and
tonight. Another caveat will be a threat of snow reaching the
antelope valley floor, and this may be added to the TAF sites
there.

Klax... Overall, moderate confidence in 18z taf. There is a 30%
chance of MVFR CIGS after 22z with chance of showers after 02-04z.

East winds around 6 knots will continue through 20z. Gusty west
to northwest winds will develop after 20z.

Kbur... Overall, moderate confidence in 18z taf. There is a 30%
chance of MVFR CIGS after 22z with chance of showers after 02-04z.

Marine 20 1027 am.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in small craft advisory (sca) level
northwest winds today through Thursday night with a 70% chance
of SCA level winds continuing through Friday evening. There is
a 30% chance of gale force gusts this afternoon through Thursday
evening. For Saturday and Sunday, moderate confidence in SCA level
winds continuing.

For the inner waters north of point sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. High confidence in small craft advisory (sca)
level northwest winds during the afternoon and evening hours both
today and Thursday. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds
developing again Friday afternoon evening. After a lull on
Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Sunday
afternoon and evening.

For the inner waters south of point conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level west
to northwest winds this afternoon through tonight. For Thursday
and Thursday night, moderate confidence (50% chance) in SCA level
winds continuing. After a lull on Friday and Saturday, there is a
40% chance of SCA level winds across western sections on Sunday.

For all waters, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday
and Thursday evening.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Winter weather advisory in effect from 4 pm this afternoon to
10 pm pst Thursday for zones 37-38-59. (see laxwswlox).

Winter weather advisory in effect until 10 pm pst Thursday
for zones 51>54. (see laxwswlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Thursday for
zones 645-650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Friday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Rorke
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
synopsis... Phillips
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 41 mi15 min WNW 13 G 16 53°F 1013.7 hPa (-3.5)43°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 41 mi33 min NNW 6 G 9.9 52°F 55°F1014.3 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 46 mi18 min 57°F6 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 60 mi25 min WNW 16 G 21 53°F 56°F9 ft1013.6 hPa (-2.6)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA34 mi19 minWNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F44°F69%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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W9NW10NW10NW3N4E5E3SE5CalmE3S3SE3E5E3CalmCalmSE4--SE3SE4CalmNW9NW11
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NW11W14NW12E6NE54CalmNE3CalmE3SW3E4S3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmNW11NE6NE6
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Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:32 AM PST     -1.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:36 AM PST     3.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:31 PM PST     -3.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:50 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:23 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:55 PM PST     1.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.1-0.7-1.2-1.2-0.70.21.42.43.13.22.61.5-0-1.5-2.8-3.4-3.4-2.8-1.7-0.30.81.61.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis Wharf, California
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Port San Luis Wharf
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:05 AM PST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:10 AM PST     6.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM PST     -1.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:50 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:23 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:12 PM PST     4.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.121.10.81.123.34.75.96.46.15.13.61.80.2-0.9-1.2-0.80.31.83.34.44.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.