Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McKittrick, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 7:45 PM PST (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:25PMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 217 Pm Pst Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds and S 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 217 Pm Pst Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 1 pm pst, a 1031 mb high pressure center was located over idaho with a ridge extending to a 1028 mb high 500 nm W of san francisco.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McKittrick, CA
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location: 35.33, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 150100 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
500 pm pst Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis 14 711 am.

Offshore flow beneath high pressure aloft will keep a dry weather
pattern in place through the end of the week. Onshore flow will
establish over the weekend as a trough of low pressure approaches
the california coast. A return of the low clouds and fog could
occur as soon as Friday at the coast.

Short term (tdy-sat) 14 133 pm.

Gradients about 2mb weaker today and winds have all been below
advisory levels for several hours so went ahead and cancelled
that a few hours early. Will likely see a little bump overnight in
the winds as is typical with santa ana events but should be weaker
than this morning and all below advisory levels. Still extremely
dry so still a fire weather concern.

Otherwise, not much change to the forecast through the weekend.

Offshore flow weakens each day and eventually turns onshore by
Saturday. Probably not a lot of temperature change Thu but cooler
Friday and Saturday with onshore flow returning. NAM still showing
favorable conditions for some marine layer stratus to return
across southern la county Friday morning, then becoming widespread
along the coast north to south Saturday. Probably confined just to
coastal areas through Saturday as onshore flow remains weak.

Will probably see some high clouds floating by at times,
especially late Friday into Saturday.

Long term (sun-wed) 14 144 pm.

Not much change Sunday from Saturday, though we will start seeing
gradients trend offshore as a weak trough passes through the
rockies and surface pressures rise across the great basin.

Probably won't have much impact Sunday but Monday and Tuesday both
the GFS and ECMWF are showing 2-4mb offshore gradients. That's
quite a bit weaker than what we saw with this last event and
support aloft is minimal at best so not expecting any significant
increase in winds during this time. But should be enough to warm
temps back up after the weekend cool down, at least for the
valleys. Uncertain on the impact to the marine layer but the
offshore flow may be too weak to really make any dent in the
stratus. Will see how the models trend with the gradients the next
couple days.

After Tuesday models continue to be all over the place. The 12z
gfs went back to a completely dry solution through at least next
Friday as did the canadian while the ECMWF does have a very weak
system with minimal moisture coming in wed. The GEFS solution
still maintains the mean trough well to the west as late as Friday
so it seems unlikely we'd see any precip until after thanksgiving
but can't rule it out completely, especially since model
consistency has been close to zero the last few days. Odds do
favor some precip no later than next weekend but timing and
amounts are very uncertain.

Aviation 15 0056z.

At 00z, there was no marine layer at klax.

High confidence in the current forecast.VFR conditions are
expected throughout the period. There is a slight chance to chance
of moderate wind shear and turbulence at valley terminals through
16z.

Klax...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Any east
winds will be less than 7 knots.

Kbur...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.

Marine 14 1021 am.

For the outer waters... High confidence in the winds remaining
below SCA speeds through at least Saturday.

For the inner waters north of point conception... High confidence
in the winds remaining below SCA speeds through at least Saturday.

For the inner waters south of point conception... Moderate
confidence in the current forecast. There is a 20% chance of sca
level NE wind gusts through early afternoon, mainly near shore
south of rincon point to malibu. Otherwise and elsewhere, the
winds will remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

Fire weather 14 126 pm.

Widespread minimum humidities between 5 and 10 percent will be
common through Thursday, except some improvement in the higher
terrain and immediate coastal sections Thursday afternoon.

Overnight recoveries will remain extremely poor tonight. Northeast
wind gusts between 25 and 40 mph may continue into the evening, then
weaken 5 to 10 mph through Thursday morning but remain gusty over
the windiest locations. As a result, critical fire weather conditions
will continue across much of los angeles and ventura counties
through this afternoon, and possibly into the evening, with elevated
to locally critical conditions following through Thursday. At this
point, there are no plans on extending the current red flag warning.

An onshore wind reversal is likely Thursday afternoon over the coasts
and santa monica mountains. Improving conditions with slowly
increasing but generally light onshore flow is expected Friday
through Saturday. Offshore winds are expected again Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday, with wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph
possible. There is a 20 percent chance for red flag conditions.

If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable for very rapid
fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with
potential fire ignition sources.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw
aviation... Hall
marine... Sweet
fire weather... Kittell
synopsis... Jll
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 41 mi28 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 62°F1022.8 hPa
CPXC1 41 mi18 min N 6 G 7 58°F 1022.7 hPa37°F
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 46 mi19 min 65°F3 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 60 mi56 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 64°F3 ft1022.1 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA34 mi50 minESE 610.00 miFair57°F30°F37%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3SE6SE3CalmCalmE6E3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4E8E4CalmSW7S6CalmCalmE5SE6
1 day agoCalmE6CalmCalmSE4CalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW93W13NW13NW12NW11N10
2 days agoSE6SE4E4CalmE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3W8NW12NW12NW13NW11NW6NW4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
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Wed -- 04:28 AM PST     0.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:06 AM PST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:28 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:04 PM PST     1.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:57 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:24 PM PST     -2.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:05 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.20.40.80.90.90.80.70.70.70.91.11.31.41.41.10.5-0.1-0.9-1.5-2.1-2.3-2.3-1.9

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis Wharf, California
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Port San Luis Wharf
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:58 AM PST     3.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:46 AM PST     3.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:28 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:55 PM PST     4.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:57 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:03 PM PST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:05 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.433.43.63.73.63.53.43.43.53.63.844.143.73.22.621.410.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.