Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McKittrick, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:02PM Sunday May 19, 2019 3:23 AM PDT (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 300 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2019
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt early, becoming W to nw 10 to 15 kt this morning, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds, building to 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 12 seconds, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 11 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 11 seconds, building to 8 to 11 ft dominant period 8 seconds in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 9 to 12 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt early, becoming 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft.
PZZ600 300 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1000 mb low was centered 200 nm W of eureka california. A cold front extending southward from this low will cross the sw california coastal waters this morning. There will be a slight chance of Thunderstorms as the front moves over the area. An extended period of gusty nw winds will follow Mon through Wed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McKittrick, CA
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location: 35.33, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 190611
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1111 pm pdt Sat may 18 2019

Synopsis 18 708 pm.

Rain will spread across the area this evening as a cold front
approaches. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms will
continue into Sunday through Sunday night, but thunderstorm risk
will shift inland by the afternoon and evening. Dry conditions are
expected Monday with showers possible on Tuesday.

Short term (sat-tue) 18 811 pm.

Unusual cold upper level low pressure for mid may centered off
the northern california coast this evening. An associated cold
front has already brought rain and mountain snow to northern and
central california today, with the leading edge of precipitation
bringing mostly light rain to portions of the forecast area so far
this afternoon and evening. Lightning strikes have been observed
near the center of the low this evening, off the coast of northern
california. The bulk of the rainfall with the cold front is
expected to fall overnight into early Sunday morning.

During this time, portions of our forecast area will be under
the left front quadrant of a strong 130 knot jet core. In
addition, 00z NAM model continues to show a pocket of instability
with lifted index values between -2 to -4 right behind the cold
front. As a result of the combination of jet dynamics and
instability, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
forecast area tonight into Sunday morning, capable of producing
brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Lightning
strikes across la county beaches will be possible Sunday morning.

In addition, there is a slight chance of waterspouts forming on
Sunday, mainly off the coasts of ventura and los angeles counties.

As the upper low draws closer to the region, colder air aloft
will move into the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening
when 500 mb temperatures drop to -23 to -26 degrees celsius.

During this time, residual moisture and instability will continue
to bring a threat of convective showers, with the slight chance of
thunderstorms mainly confined to interior sections. Once again,
any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing brief
heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. In evening update,
have bumped up storm totals a bit, with most areas now expected to
range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, except local totals up to
1.00 inch possible across san luis obispo santa barbara counties
and near thunderstorms.

Initially, snow levels are expected to be well above 7000
feet tonight, but are expected to lower rapidly behind the
front on Sunday, eventually lowering to between 5000 and 6000
feet during the afternoon and evening hours. The unusually low
snow levels for may could bring rare winter weather driving
conditions to the local mountains for this time of year. A winter
weather advisory may need to be considered by later shifts if
shower activity becomes more organized across the local mountains
Sunday afternoon and evening. There is the potential for some 1 to
3 inch snow accumulations with this event, especially at
elevations above 6000 feet. Southwest winds will be gusting
between 35 and 50 mph across portions of the mountains, antelope
valley, and interior valleys overnight into Sunday.

*** from previous discussion ***
there will be plenty of clouds over the region with this weather
system, but by late Sun night and Mon there should be clearing for
many areas. Gusty W to NW winds will also affect the area especially
during the afternoon and evening hours Sun and mon. The strongest
winds are expected over the mtns and deserts, altho even coastal
areas could have close to advisory-level winds at times. There will
likely be a need for a wind advisory through the i-5 corridor with
this event.

Some increasing clouds will move in Mon night into Tue morning as
the next upper level trof approaches from the n. This next system
will also bring a chance of showers to portions of slo sba counties
tue morning, with a slight chance of showers for this area tue
afternoon, as well as for the mtns of vtu l.A. Counties.

Temps are going to remain significantly below normal for Sun thru
tue. Sun and Tue will be the coolest days as highs should be 10-20
deg below normal for most areas. Temps in the warmest vlys and
inland coastal areas should only be in the 60s sun, warm slightly to
the mid 60s to low 70s for Mon then fall to the mid to upper 60s
for tue.

Long term (wed-sat) 18 240 pm.

The ec and GFS both forecast a broad upper level trough persisting
over the western u.S. For Wed thru sat. There will be embedded short
wave trofs and upper level lows which will move into the base of the
long wave trof during the period. The timing and location of each of
these is not entirely in sync between the ec and gfs, but the main
idea is the same.

Greatly broad-brushed the extended forecast with these
uncertainties. It looks like periods of cloudiness and some showers
will affect parts of swrn ca at times, with dry periods as well.

Even so, it looks like most of the forecast area will be generally
dry thru the extended period, with the best chance of showers
overall in the mtns and interior areas.

There will be minor day-to-day changes in temps, and it looks like
below normal temps will continue overall. Highs should be generally
6 to 12 deg lower than seasonal norms thru the period. For the
warmest vlys and inland coastal areas, high should be in the upper
60s to low 70s Wed and thu, and upper 60s to mid 70s Fri and sat.

Aviation 19 0610z.

At 0530 at klax... There was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Low confidence in tafs. Flight cats will change frequently as
front approaches and moves through the area. Steady rain is likely
through 18z scattered showers will persist through 00z. There is a
20 percent chc of a TSTM north of pt conception and a 10 percent
chc south. There is a 30 percent chc ofVFR conds after 00z at
sites with MVFR CIGS fcst.

Klax... Low confidence in tafs. Flight cats will change frequently
through 18z and then settle down after. Steady rain is likely
through 18z scattered showers will persist through 00z. There is a
10 percent chc of a TSTM 18z-00z. There is a 20 percent chc of an
east wind component of 9 kt 11z-16z.

Kbur... Low confidence in tafs. Flight cats will change frequently
through 18z and then settle down after. Steady rain is likely
through 18z scattered showers will persist through 00z. There is a
10 percent chc of a TSTM 18z-00z. There is a 30 percent of sct
conds after 00z.

Marine 18 823 pm.

For all waters, a cold front will move from NW to SE across the
waters tonight through Sunday morning. As this occurs, there will
be a slight chance of thunderstorms along with the cold front,
including a possibility of funnel clouds or water spouts.

For the outer waters... Small craft advisory (sca) level
conditions will develop early on Sunday as NW winds increase
behind the cold front. The gusty winds ware expected to continue
through Wednesday. There is a 60% chance of gale force winds
Monday night through Tuesday night.

For the inner waters north of point conception... There is a 60%
chance of SCA level winds Sunday afternoon and evening and again
during the afternoon to evening hours Monday through Wednesday.

For the inner waters south of point conception... There is a 60%
chance of SCA level winds Sunday through Wednesday with a thirty
percent chance of gale force winds Monday night and Tuesday night.

Beaches 18 210 pm.

A large swell will generate increasing surf through at least late
Monday along west and northwest facing shores. The largest surf
will affect the central coast where a high surf advisory (hsa)
will go into effect this evening through at least early Tuesday.

The surf will diminish on Tuesday but will remain close to or
above advisory level... Then increase again by Wednesday. It is
possible that the advisory may be extended through at least
Thursday for the central coast. There is a forty percent chance
that a beach hazard statement may be needed for the ventura and or
los angeles county beaches sometime during the week.

This large surf will generate widespread and dangerous rip
currents along local beaches. There is an increased risk of ocean
drowning. Rip currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea...

wash people off beaches and rocks... And capsize small boats near
shore.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect from 6 am Sunday to 3 am pdt
Tuesday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 11 am Sunday to 3 am pdt
Wednesday for zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm Sunday to 3 pm pdt
Wednesday for zones 670-673. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 am Sunday to 3 am pdt
Wednesday for zone 676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (tue-sat)
Gusty advisory level west to northwest winds will be possible at
times tue.

Public... Gomberg sirard
aviation... Rorke
marine... Smith
beaches... Kj
synopsis... Stewart
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 41 mi28 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 53°F 1010.6 hPa51°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 41 mi36 min SE 1 G 2.9 53°F 57°F1010.7 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 46 mi54 min 55°F3 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 60 mi34 min W 9.7 G 14 56°F 55°F5 ft1009.8 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA34 mi28 minSW 32.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F51°F97%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NW5NW6CalmW33W4NW15NW12NW11NW8SW5S5S5S3SE5E5SE5SE5SE8SE10SE5SE8SW3
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Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
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Sun -- 05:08 AM PDT     -3.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:36 AM PDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM PDT     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:42 PM PDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.10.8-0.7-2.1-3.1-3.6-3.3-2.5-1.3-0.10.91.41.51.10.4-0.3-0.8-0.9-0.50.31.42.433.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis Wharf, California
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Port San Luis Wharf
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:26 AM PDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:45 AM PDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM PDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:57 PM PDT     6.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.342.40.9-0.3-1-0.9-0.30.82.13.13.83.93.62.92.21.71.61.92.83.84.95.76

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.