Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avon, NC
May 18, 2024 9:42 AM EDT (13:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:35 PM Moonset 2:18 AM |
AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 745 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday evening - .
Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Showers likely with isolated tstms this morning, then scattered tstms with a chance of showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 9 seconds and se 2 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely with scattered tstms in the evening, then showers likely with isolated tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun - N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: ne 6 ft at 9 seconds and ne 5 ft at 5 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night - N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: ne 6 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed - E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 745 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 181143 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 743 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 700 AM Saturday...
KEY POINTS:
- First wave of high coverage showers moving through NE portions of the CWA right now, no impacts expected through the morning.
- Low rain coverage for late morning into early afternoon
- Second, more impactful wave of showers and thunderstorms sets up this afternoon through the evening, with a marginal (1/5)
risk of severe thunderstorm winds region-wide and a marginal, localized risk of flash flooding along hwy 264, including Greenville.
A cluster of showers are moving through NE portions of the region along an area of enhanced isentropic lift at the moment.
Severe threat remains low this morning with little instability along this line. This cluster of showers will likely help inhibit convection through the early afternoon as it stabilizes the atmosphere. This is reinforced by the CAMs catching onto minimal shower coverage through the rest of the morning into the early afternoon. While unlikely, if we end up with some breaks in the clouds late this morning, an increase in insolation could in turn increase our instability, resulting in a higher threat of severe weather and thunderstorm coverage.
The second wave in the late afternoon through the end of the near term is the more impactful wave. Warm front extending from a sfc low to our west lifts north through the area before setting shop along the hwy 264 corridor this evening. This warm front provides us with the most effective forcing through the afternoon and evening. Heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms could form up along the warm front, and train in one location as long as the front is stationary. This would result in an increased risk of flash flooding for the hwy 264 corridor, including Greenville. Further south, we have no shortage of instability setting up in the WAA regime, but a lack of forcing will help mitigate storm initiation. Fortunately for us the warm front is displaced from the area of highest instability, lessening our severe threat for today despite ample shear. We have been downgraded from a slight to a marginal risk of severe weather by the SPC, with severe winds the primary threat. Warm front begins to dip back south Saturday evening. The timing of this movement will play a large role in the severe potential for the Crystal Coast. If the warm front dips down before sunset, while there is still decent instability, severe potential will be higher. If it dips down after sunset, severe potential decreases.
Temperatures on Saturday will vary quite a bit from SW to NE.
South of the stalled front, highs should warm into the 70s and 80s, while north of the boundary, highs may struggle to get out of the 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 430 AM Saturday...Warm front continues moving south and spins off a weak sfc low which will then push offshore Sunday morning with stronger northerly flow ensuing as the low deepens offshore. Upper level low trailing behind the sfc low provides enough forcing for showers to linger through Saturday night.
Heavy rain is still possible through the night along and east of hwy 17 as low formation provides additional forcing. Lows Saturday night near 60 inland and for NOBX, mid 60s for the remainder of the coastline.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.
Sunday...Low pressure will push offshore by early in the day bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing to bring the threat for rain showers across ENC on a brisk nerly breeze. Even if no rain, ovc skies and breezy conditions will prevent temps from rising much, and remaining only in the 60s through the day. Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in the 50s.
Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s, then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.
Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sat night/...
As of 715 AM Friday...Widespread VFR through much of the region, although low ceilings exist where the cluster of high- coverage showers are moving through. Conditions will continue deteriorating following the showers, improving to VFR behind it. As second wave of precip comes through late afternoon onwards chances of thunderstorms and heavy rain increase, with ceilings in the VFR/MVFR range. Saturday night a drop to IFR is expected with low level moisture increasing, resulting in low ceilings.
LONG TERM /Sun through Wed/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Warm front lifts north through the day, with winds becoming E or SE for all waters. Wind speeds will be in the 5-15kt range. Along the boundary, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, the strongest of which could produce gusty winds of 34kt+ and small hail. The boundary then stalls, with breezy southwesterly winds of 10-15kt developing south of it, and 10- 20kt easterly winds to the north. A low will move along the boundary, then shift offshore Saturday night. Increasing northeasterly winds are then expected behind the departing low. Winds will be approaching 25kt late Saturday night, increasing to 25-30kt Sunday morning for northern waters and sounds as the low deepens offshore.
For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through Saturday. Seas will then begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning within the strengthening northeasterly surge of wind behind the departing low.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off of the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in it's wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds, including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30 kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.
HYDROLOGY
As of 4 AM Sat...A warm front will stall west to east along hwy 264 (including Greenville) for a time later today into the evening, with the potential for convection to train along the boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall amounts as high as 3- 6". This may occur over a relatively small area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we'll be closely monitoring this potential.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ154-156.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 743 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 700 AM Saturday...
KEY POINTS:
- First wave of high coverage showers moving through NE portions of the CWA right now, no impacts expected through the morning.
- Low rain coverage for late morning into early afternoon
- Second, more impactful wave of showers and thunderstorms sets up this afternoon through the evening, with a marginal (1/5)
risk of severe thunderstorm winds region-wide and a marginal, localized risk of flash flooding along hwy 264, including Greenville.
A cluster of showers are moving through NE portions of the region along an area of enhanced isentropic lift at the moment.
Severe threat remains low this morning with little instability along this line. This cluster of showers will likely help inhibit convection through the early afternoon as it stabilizes the atmosphere. This is reinforced by the CAMs catching onto minimal shower coverage through the rest of the morning into the early afternoon. While unlikely, if we end up with some breaks in the clouds late this morning, an increase in insolation could in turn increase our instability, resulting in a higher threat of severe weather and thunderstorm coverage.
The second wave in the late afternoon through the end of the near term is the more impactful wave. Warm front extending from a sfc low to our west lifts north through the area before setting shop along the hwy 264 corridor this evening. This warm front provides us with the most effective forcing through the afternoon and evening. Heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms could form up along the warm front, and train in one location as long as the front is stationary. This would result in an increased risk of flash flooding for the hwy 264 corridor, including Greenville. Further south, we have no shortage of instability setting up in the WAA regime, but a lack of forcing will help mitigate storm initiation. Fortunately for us the warm front is displaced from the area of highest instability, lessening our severe threat for today despite ample shear. We have been downgraded from a slight to a marginal risk of severe weather by the SPC, with severe winds the primary threat. Warm front begins to dip back south Saturday evening. The timing of this movement will play a large role in the severe potential for the Crystal Coast. If the warm front dips down before sunset, while there is still decent instability, severe potential will be higher. If it dips down after sunset, severe potential decreases.
Temperatures on Saturday will vary quite a bit from SW to NE.
South of the stalled front, highs should warm into the 70s and 80s, while north of the boundary, highs may struggle to get out of the 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 430 AM Saturday...Warm front continues moving south and spins off a weak sfc low which will then push offshore Sunday morning with stronger northerly flow ensuing as the low deepens offshore. Upper level low trailing behind the sfc low provides enough forcing for showers to linger through Saturday night.
Heavy rain is still possible through the night along and east of hwy 17 as low formation provides additional forcing. Lows Saturday night near 60 inland and for NOBX, mid 60s for the remainder of the coastline.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.
Sunday...Low pressure will push offshore by early in the day bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing to bring the threat for rain showers across ENC on a brisk nerly breeze. Even if no rain, ovc skies and breezy conditions will prevent temps from rising much, and remaining only in the 60s through the day. Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in the 50s.
Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s, then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.
Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sat night/...
As of 715 AM Friday...Widespread VFR through much of the region, although low ceilings exist where the cluster of high- coverage showers are moving through. Conditions will continue deteriorating following the showers, improving to VFR behind it. As second wave of precip comes through late afternoon onwards chances of thunderstorms and heavy rain increase, with ceilings in the VFR/MVFR range. Saturday night a drop to IFR is expected with low level moisture increasing, resulting in low ceilings.
LONG TERM /Sun through Wed/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Warm front lifts north through the day, with winds becoming E or SE for all waters. Wind speeds will be in the 5-15kt range. Along the boundary, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, the strongest of which could produce gusty winds of 34kt+ and small hail. The boundary then stalls, with breezy southwesterly winds of 10-15kt developing south of it, and 10- 20kt easterly winds to the north. A low will move along the boundary, then shift offshore Saturday night. Increasing northeasterly winds are then expected behind the departing low. Winds will be approaching 25kt late Saturday night, increasing to 25-30kt Sunday morning for northern waters and sounds as the low deepens offshore.
For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through Saturday. Seas will then begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning within the strengthening northeasterly surge of wind behind the departing low.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off of the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in it's wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds, including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30 kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.
HYDROLOGY
As of 4 AM Sat...A warm front will stall west to east along hwy 264 (including Greenville) for a time later today into the evening, with the potential for convection to train along the boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall amounts as high as 3- 6". This may occur over a relatively small area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we'll be closely monitoring this potential.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ154-156.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41120 | 13 mi | 102 min | 64°F | 4 ft | ||||
| HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 14 mi | 54 min | ESE 8G | 64°F | 70°F | 29.95 | ||
| 41025 - Diamond Shoals | 23 mi | 42 min | ESE 7.8G | 69°F | 29.94 | |||
| 44095 | 29 mi | 46 min | 58°F | 3 ft | ||||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 31 mi | 54 min | E 7G | 57°F | 67°F | 30.00 | ||
| 41083 | 43 mi | 162 min | NE 9.7 | 56°F | 60°F | 29.94 | ||
| 44086 | 45 mi | 46 min | 60°F | 4 ft | ||||
| 41082 | 46 mi | 162 min | ENE 12 | 54°F | 57°F | 29.94 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHSE BILLY MITCHELL,NC | 10 sm | 12 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.95 |
Avon
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:18 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT 2.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:40 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:07 PM EDT 2.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:14 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:18 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT 2.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:40 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:07 PM EDT 2.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:14 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Avon, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 2.4 |
| 5 am |
| 2.4 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:18 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT 3.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:15 AM EDT 0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 PM EDT 3.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 10:59 PM EDT 0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:18 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT 3.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:15 AM EDT 0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 PM EDT 3.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 10:59 PM EDT 0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 2.5 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 3.2 |
| 5 am |
| 3.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.8 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Morehead City, NC,
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