Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayview, NC
May 1, 2024 3:26 AM EDT (07:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 1:28 AM Moonset 11:37 AM |
AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 935 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Overnight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri - W winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 935 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A weak surface trough will move through the area on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMHX 010723 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 323 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH EARLY EVENING/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak upper level shortwave will move slowly east across the Coastal Carolinas today. At the SFC, a weakening trough/cold front will approach ENC from the NW through the day. Early this morning, modest elevated moisture transport and weak large-scale forcing with the shortwave will support scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Weak effective shear should keep the risk of strong thunderstorms low, with the greatest thunderstorm risk focused offshore.
By this afternoon, modest moisture advection ahead of the front and upper level wave should allow dewpoints to rise into the mid 60s. Heating of the moist boundary layer should support moderate instability, on the order of ~1000 j/kg SBCAPE. Early in the afternoon, deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (~20kt). However, by mid to late afternoon, the flow aloft will become northwesterly atop a southerly SFC wind. This will give a little curvature to the hodograph, and will lead to a modest increase in deep layer shear to around 25-30kt. At face value, this type of environment is generally supportive of multicell clusters capable of gusty winds of 30-50 mph. The severe weather threat in an environment like this is low (<10% chance), but isn't zero. I suspect the "best" chance of seeing a marginally severe thunderstorm would be during the mid to late- afternoon period as the deep layer shear increases. Storm motions will tend to be erratic today, focusing along outflow boundaries and the seabreeze. The upper level steering flow will be changing through the day as well, which may lead to a mean southeasterly flow with time.
One caveat with the thunderstorm coverage and intensity today is questionable forcing. Low-level convergence with the above- mentioned cold front is forecast to weaken with time as it approaches the coastal plain. Meanwhile, a seabreeze is expected to develop, and this may end up being the best focus of low- level convergence. Between the weakening front, the seabreeze, and some weak support with the upper level shortwave, there still appears to be a decent signal for scattered thunderstorms focused in the 12pm-7pm timeframe. I didn't stray too far from the previous forecast regarding coverage today, but it should be noted that the lack of stronger forcing shows up in some short- term guidance with a lower coverage. I suspect the seabreeze will be the primary driver of convection today, with the surface front adding some support. The lack of stronger forcing should also help to keep the severe weather risk at bay as this will tend to lower the risk of deeper, more sustained, updrafts.
Where thunderstorms occur, rainfall amounts are forecast to average in the 0.25-0.75" range. With an initially weak steering flow, slow storm motions may support rainfall amounts as high as 1-3" for some. Even where the highest rainfall amounts occur, flooding is not expected to be a big impact, primarily due to the lack of appreciable rainfall of late.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Thunderstorm activity should be diurnally-driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 7pm this evening. In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 PM Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Inland highs in the low to mid 80s for the rest of the week
- Best rain chances Wednesday and then an unsettled weekend and start to the new week
FORECAST DETAILS
We return to warm, dry weather on Thursday and Friday with a ridge building over the southeast US. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the coastal plain and low 70s at the beaches.
Unsettled weather returns this weekend with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will be gradually washed out as a surface low forms due to a shortwave trough moving across the southeast. At the same time, a cold front associated with a deep low over south-central Canada will move into our area and stall. PoPs increase west to east on Saturday with shower and thunderstorm activity possible through Monday (15-30% chance).
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- TSRA risk on Wednesday
- BR/FG likely late Wednesday evening (60-80% chance)
FORECAST DETAILS
A weak upper level wave, and an associated surface trough, will move slowly east across the coastal Carolinas over the next 24 hrs. These features will combine with a moistening and destabilizing environment, leading to an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Overnight, the TSRA risk looks to be highest offshore and perhaps as far inland as KMRH and KNJM. That is also the area that stands the best chance of low VFR CIGs (3-5k ft) over the next several hours. With continued low-level moistening, there will be a window of opportunity for a period of MVFR CIGs along and east of a line from OAJ to EWN. Guidance isn't sold on the lower CIGs , so for now I've opted to go with a SCT020 layer to reflect the potential.
On Wednesday, afternoon heating plus the seabreeze and the above- mentioned front and upper wave will likely lead to scattered SHRA/TSRA, with a focus in the 17z-23z timeframe.
Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR conditions are likely (VIS and CIGs ).
The strongest TSRA will be capable of gusty/erratic winds to 40kt+. At this time, though, the risk of 50kt+ winds looks low (<5% chance at any one terminal). In the wake of the TSRA, light winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall should support an increased risk of sub-VFR VIS due to BR/FG. The greatest BR/FG impacts are expected to hold off until after the current TAF cycle.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the period but a few instances of unsettled weather are expected. By Saturday, a cold front will be moving into the area and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms (15-30%). Lowered CIGs and VIS are expected during these times.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak cold front will move slowly southeast across the ENC waters late this afternoon through tonight. Because of the weak nature of the front, I do not expect a significant northerly wind surge to develop. In fact, a weakening gradient around the front is expected to keep winds light (5-15kt) for most of the day and into tonight. Seas of 3-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight. However, the ongoing long-period ENE swell of 3-4 ft at 12-13s hasn't been modeled as well, and seas may not lay down as quick as forecast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the central and southern waters this morning, associated with an upper level wave approaching from the west. During the afternoon hours, the thunderstorm threat will shift inland with the seabreeze, mainly impacting inland rivers and sounds. Some of those thunderstorms may work back towards the coastal waters this evening, but confidence in this is low. Once the thunderstorms dissipate, there will be an increased risk of fog. The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities during this time, and we'll monitor this in later forecasts in case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
FORECAST DETAILS
Although marine conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria, opportunities for showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend. Winds will be variable through the period due to several systems moving through but will remain around 5-10 kt with 2-4 ft seas.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 323 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH EARLY EVENING/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak upper level shortwave will move slowly east across the Coastal Carolinas today. At the SFC, a weakening trough/cold front will approach ENC from the NW through the day. Early this morning, modest elevated moisture transport and weak large-scale forcing with the shortwave will support scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Weak effective shear should keep the risk of strong thunderstorms low, with the greatest thunderstorm risk focused offshore.
By this afternoon, modest moisture advection ahead of the front and upper level wave should allow dewpoints to rise into the mid 60s. Heating of the moist boundary layer should support moderate instability, on the order of ~1000 j/kg SBCAPE. Early in the afternoon, deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (~20kt). However, by mid to late afternoon, the flow aloft will become northwesterly atop a southerly SFC wind. This will give a little curvature to the hodograph, and will lead to a modest increase in deep layer shear to around 25-30kt. At face value, this type of environment is generally supportive of multicell clusters capable of gusty winds of 30-50 mph. The severe weather threat in an environment like this is low (<10% chance), but isn't zero. I suspect the "best" chance of seeing a marginally severe thunderstorm would be during the mid to late- afternoon period as the deep layer shear increases. Storm motions will tend to be erratic today, focusing along outflow boundaries and the seabreeze. The upper level steering flow will be changing through the day as well, which may lead to a mean southeasterly flow with time.
One caveat with the thunderstorm coverage and intensity today is questionable forcing. Low-level convergence with the above- mentioned cold front is forecast to weaken with time as it approaches the coastal plain. Meanwhile, a seabreeze is expected to develop, and this may end up being the best focus of low- level convergence. Between the weakening front, the seabreeze, and some weak support with the upper level shortwave, there still appears to be a decent signal for scattered thunderstorms focused in the 12pm-7pm timeframe. I didn't stray too far from the previous forecast regarding coverage today, but it should be noted that the lack of stronger forcing shows up in some short- term guidance with a lower coverage. I suspect the seabreeze will be the primary driver of convection today, with the surface front adding some support. The lack of stronger forcing should also help to keep the severe weather risk at bay as this will tend to lower the risk of deeper, more sustained, updrafts.
Where thunderstorms occur, rainfall amounts are forecast to average in the 0.25-0.75" range. With an initially weak steering flow, slow storm motions may support rainfall amounts as high as 1-3" for some. Even where the highest rainfall amounts occur, flooding is not expected to be a big impact, primarily due to the lack of appreciable rainfall of late.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Thunderstorm activity should be diurnally-driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 7pm this evening. In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 PM Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Inland highs in the low to mid 80s for the rest of the week
- Best rain chances Wednesday and then an unsettled weekend and start to the new week
FORECAST DETAILS
We return to warm, dry weather on Thursday and Friday with a ridge building over the southeast US. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the coastal plain and low 70s at the beaches.
Unsettled weather returns this weekend with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will be gradually washed out as a surface low forms due to a shortwave trough moving across the southeast. At the same time, a cold front associated with a deep low over south-central Canada will move into our area and stall. PoPs increase west to east on Saturday with shower and thunderstorm activity possible through Monday (15-30% chance).
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- TSRA risk on Wednesday
- BR/FG likely late Wednesday evening (60-80% chance)
FORECAST DETAILS
A weak upper level wave, and an associated surface trough, will move slowly east across the coastal Carolinas over the next 24 hrs. These features will combine with a moistening and destabilizing environment, leading to an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Overnight, the TSRA risk looks to be highest offshore and perhaps as far inland as KMRH and KNJM. That is also the area that stands the best chance of low VFR CIGs (3-5k ft) over the next several hours. With continued low-level moistening, there will be a window of opportunity for a period of MVFR CIGs along and east of a line from OAJ to EWN. Guidance isn't sold on the lower CIGs , so for now I've opted to go with a SCT020 layer to reflect the potential.
On Wednesday, afternoon heating plus the seabreeze and the above- mentioned front and upper wave will likely lead to scattered SHRA/TSRA, with a focus in the 17z-23z timeframe.
Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR conditions are likely (VIS and CIGs ).
The strongest TSRA will be capable of gusty/erratic winds to 40kt+. At this time, though, the risk of 50kt+ winds looks low (<5% chance at any one terminal). In the wake of the TSRA, light winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall should support an increased risk of sub-VFR VIS due to BR/FG. The greatest BR/FG impacts are expected to hold off until after the current TAF cycle.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the period but a few instances of unsettled weather are expected. By Saturday, a cold front will be moving into the area and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms (15-30%). Lowered CIGs and VIS are expected during these times.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak cold front will move slowly southeast across the ENC waters late this afternoon through tonight. Because of the weak nature of the front, I do not expect a significant northerly wind surge to develop. In fact, a weakening gradient around the front is expected to keep winds light (5-15kt) for most of the day and into tonight. Seas of 3-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight. However, the ongoing long-period ENE swell of 3-4 ft at 12-13s hasn't been modeled as well, and seas may not lay down as quick as forecast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the central and southern waters this morning, associated with an upper level wave approaching from the west. During the afternoon hours, the thunderstorm threat will shift inland with the seabreeze, mainly impacting inland rivers and sounds. Some of those thunderstorms may work back towards the coastal waters this evening, but confidence in this is low. Once the thunderstorms dissipate, there will be an increased risk of fog. The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities during this time, and we'll monitor this in later forecasts in case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
FORECAST DETAILS
Although marine conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria, opportunities for showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend. Winds will be variable through the period due to several systems moving through but will remain around 5-10 kt with 2-4 ft seas.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 46 mi | 56 min | WSW 7G | 69°F | 69°F | 29.96 | ||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 53 mi | 86 min | SW 8.9G | 69°F | 30.00 | |||
| HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 53 mi | 56 min | WSW 7G | 66°F | 68°F | 29.99 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOCW WASHINGTONWARREN,NC | 24 sm | 26 min | SSW 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 63°F | 83% | 29.96 |
Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:53 AM EDT 2.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:44 AM EDT 0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:38 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT 1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:53 AM EDT 2.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:44 AM EDT 0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:38 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT 1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 2.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:51 AM EDT 1.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:12 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:50 AM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:34 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:29 PM EDT 0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:01 PM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:51 AM EDT 1.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:12 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:50 AM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:34 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:29 PM EDT 0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:01 PM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Morehead City, NC,
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