Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

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Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday August 19, 2018 10:06 AM EDT (14:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:55PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 841 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, then showers and tstms likely.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 191252
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
852 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore
through the weekend with a weak trough over the central
piedmont. A weak cold front will drop into the northern
forecast area late Sunday night and Monday, then lift back north
Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front will move through
the area Thursday, then stall off the coast into next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 850 am Sunday... With radar showing only patchy light shra
coast and high res mdls keeping it mainly dry thru morn
dropped pops inland with slight chc coast thru noon.

Prev disc... Precipitation has moved offshore and most of
eastern nc will experience a lull for a few hours as
temperatures warm quickly under partly sunny skies. Expect
scattered activity to redevelop along the sea breeze this
afternoon, but with less coverage than Saturday, and will have a
30-40 pct pop for the afternoon hours. High temperatures this
afternoon should reach the mid upper 80s. Rain chances will
start to increase again by sunset.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 345 am Sunday... The axis of deepest moisture and
precipitable water moves toward the coast tonight. As a result,
have likely pops along the coastal sections through the
overnight hours with heavy downpours possible as the precipitable
water hovers near 2.25 inches. Pops taper back to chance inland
tonight. Lows tonight will again be warm and muggy, mainly in
the mid 70s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 310 am sun... A mean upper trough is forecast over the
eastern us through the period while low level southerly flow
continues to circulate a very moist airmass across our region
with pw values AOA 2". The favorable combination of forcing
aloft and moisture instability in the low levels will result in
unsettled conditions through the first part of the week with
precipitation chances at or above normal and temperatures at or
slightly below normal. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
above climatological norms through mid week as conditions remain
favorable for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Monday through Tuesday... A weak front is forecast to drop
southward into the northern forecast area late Sunday night and
Monday, then lift back north Monday night and early Tuesday.

Highs in the mid to upper 80s through mid week, and overnight
lows in the 70s.

Wednesday through Sunday... Another cold front will approach the
area mid to late week. There are still some timing differences,
with the GFS much more progressive and pushes the front through
quite a bit faster than the ecmwf. Expect the front to push
through the area Thursday, then likely remained stalled off the
coast into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from
the north. Expect to see a drier airmass build into the area
with lesser precip chances. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Some
guidance has lows dropping into the low mid 60s late week and
next weekend.

Aviation 13z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 700 am Sunday... Still anticipateVFR conditions to prevail
at the TAF sites with only brief periods of sub-vfr during
widely scattered showers storms during the afternoon and early
evening. The best coverage of showers tstms will occur tonight
near the coast, east of all of the TAF sites.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 310 am sun... Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will produce sub-vfr conditions at times through the period. In
addition conditions will be favorable for periods of low clouds
and fog early each morning. A cold front will push through the
area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 850 am Sunday... 06z runs of GFS nam cont to show winds 15
to 25 kts with potential for 6 foot seas outer central and srn
wtrs today so extended SCA thru the day these waters.

Prev disc... Based on trends in the observations have dropped
the SCA for the pamlico sound. Have also dropped the advisory
north of oregon inlet. Gusty winds continue on the coastal
waters with gusts of 25 knots at diamond buoy and 27 knots at
the buoy 17 miles south of ocracoke early this morning. Earlier
extended the SCA for the coastal waters south of oregon inlet
through late morning. Most of the high- resolution models do
indicate winds to trend downward over the next several hours.

Seas have generally not responded with only a few areas on the
far outer waters reaching 6 feet. Seas into tonight should run
3-5 feet central waters and 2-4 feet elsewhere.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 310 am sun... A weak front is forecast to drop into the
northern waters late Sunday night and Monday, then lift back
north Monday night and early Tuesday. W SW winds 5-15 kt early
Monday with seas 2-5 ft, becoming E SE across the northern
waters and remaining SW south of hatteras. S SW winds return for
all waters Tuesday 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft early building to 3-5 ft Tuesday night.

Gradient tightens Tue night and wed, with SW winds increasing to
15-25 kt and seas building to 3-6 ft. Could see a brief period
of SCA conditions Tue night into wed, with best chances across
the central waters. A cold front is likely to push through the
waters Thursday then stall off the coast into the weekend. Winds
will shift becoming NE E 5-15 kt.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for amz152-
154.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for amz156-
158.

Synopsis... Ctc cqd
near term... Rf ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Cqd
aviation... Ctc cqd
marine... Rf ctc cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi37 min WSW 8.9 G 17 78°F 80°F1014.4 hPa
44095 26 mi49 min 77°F3 ft
41025 - Diamond Shoals 27 mi27 min WSW 19 G 23 81°F 80°F1015.2 hPa75°F
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi43 min SW 13 G 17 78°F 83°F1014 hPa
41062 34 mi67 min 12 G 16 1014.7 hPa (+1.7)
41063 48 mi67 min WSW 18 G 21 80°F 81°F1015.2 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi76 minWSW 109.00 miFair80°F73°F82%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:21 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:10 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:40 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.622.22.21.91.40.90.40.20.20.511.62.22.72.92.82.41.91.30.80.50.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:28 AM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:34 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:15 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.32.62.62.31.81.20.70.50.40.71.31.92.63.13.33.22.82.31.61.10.80.81

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.