Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cayucos, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday March 23, 2017 3:02 PM PDT (22:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 1:59PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 210 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening...becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds...building to 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then chance of rain.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 12 seconds. Rain in the evening, then rain likely.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 7 to 8 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 8 to 9 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 7 to 8 ft at 13 seconds... Subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 10 to 13 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 12 to 14 ft.
PZZ600 210 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 19z...or 12 pm pst...a 988 mb low was 800 nm W of seattle...with a cold front trailing sw of the the low. A 1027 mb high was located around 400 nm sw of point conception.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cayucos, CA
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location: 35.43, -120.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 232126
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles/oxnard ca
226 pm pdt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
Breezy northwest winds will continue tonight. A weak storm system
will bring light rain to the area later Friday through Saturday.

An inside sliding low pressure system will delay warming and
bring windy conditions by Monday and Tuesday with an outside
chance for showers. Warming likely by midweek as high pressure
builds.

Short term (tdy-sun)
some clouds persist over the mountains today as residual moisture
remains in place behind an exiting storm system. The trough of
low pressure continues to move east into the rockies, while a
shortwave ridge of high pressure off the southern california coast
replaces it. Ridging aloft will continue to build over the region
tonight. A northwest low-level flow pattern across the outer
coastal waters should develop an eddy circulation tonight across
the southern california bight. With little development taking
place currently, the low clouds and fog arrival has been trended a
little later to emphasize a morning arrival, but still favors the
los angeles county coast and the san gabriel valley.

Increasing clouds will develop on Friday as a trough of low
pressure near 47n and 135w continues to move toward the pacific
northwest. A cold front off the pacific northwest coast and
stretching to the south and southwest will move south and east
across the region through Saturday as a secondary trough develops
from a wave about 1600 miles west of los angeles. Pops and qpf
values have been nudged up for the northern slopes and for areas
north of point conception as the most favorable flow pattern will
develop for these areas. Pops remain largely unchanged south of
point conception with this system. QPF values have been ticked
down slightly for areas south of point conception, and there is a
chance that any precipitation with the front could be more showery
in nature. Near advisory level winds could develop, especially
across the interior portions of the area on Saturday and
Saturday night as the trough exits.

Weak ridging aloft should develop again for Sunday with
increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system.

Long term (mon-thu)
model solutions are starting to come into agreement with the
details for the storm system between Sunday night and Tuesday.

While more of an inside-slider type system and lacking moisture,
both models would suggest a gusty northerly winds impacting the
area with the storm, especially across southern santa barbara
county and through the interstate 5 corridor Monday night and
Tuesday. GFS model trends are trending more westerly with the
system and forming a cut-off trough and digging it over the area,
while ECMWF solutions suggest a weaker trough. With models
trending stronger with the storm system, the forecast leans more
toward the GFS solutions. If GFS solutions are correct, there will
be the potential for thunderstorms with this system as -27 degree
cold pocket at 500 mb moves south across the area. With much time
and many model runs in between, only a few tweaks were made to
pops to emphasize the northern slopes of the mountains, but
precipitation cannot be ruled out in a more showery form areawide.

Models are starting to come inline with the idea of another
possible inside-slider type system for Wednesday and Thursday.

With most attention to details given to the first two systems,
little confidence exists in the forecast after Wednesday as most
of the elements were left unchanged.

Aviation 23/1800z.

At 1735z, there was no marine inversion present at klax.

Good confidence in tafs through 06z. There is a 30 percent chance
MVFR possibly ifr cigs/vsbys do not form at klax, klgb, and ksmo
tonight. There is a 20 percent chance of low MVFR to ifr
cigs/vsbys after 09z at kbur kvny koxr and kcma.

Klax... High confidence in cavu conds through 24/06z. Lower
confidence about clouds after 24/06z with equal chcs of low
clouds arriving between 07z and 11z. There is also a 20 percent
chc that the clouds will be ifr.

Kbur... Good confidence in taf. There is a 20 percent chance of
low MVFR to ifr cigs/vsbys after 09z.

Marine 23/200 pm.

Sca conditions will continue to the south of point conception
through this afternoon, gradually improving this evening into
tonight. There will be a few gale force gusts between san nicolas
island and santa rosa island during this time. There is a 70
percent chance SCA winds will prevail across the outer waters
Saturday night through Tuesday. SCA winds may also extend into the
inner waters at times during this period, mostly likely late
Monday into early Tuesday.

Lox watches/warnings/advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect until 6 pm pdt this evening
for zones 39>41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening
for zone 650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm pdt this afternoon
for zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Friday for
zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
a weak rain event is expected through Saturday, with minimal
impacts.

High surf and strong rip currents are likely Friday into
Sunday.

Early next week, a stronger storm system is expected and could
bring gusty northerly winds and mountain snow.

Public... Hall
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
synopsis... Kittell
weather.Gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 16 mi42 min 60°F7 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 19 mi44 min W 19 G 23 57°F 56°F1023.8 hPa
CPXC1 19 mi32 min W 17 G 19 58°F 1022.7 hPa46°F
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 34 mi72 min NW 18 G 19 55°F 57°F8 ft1024.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA18 mi66 minNW 1710.00 miFair64°F48°F56%1022.8 hPa
Paso Robles, Paso Robles Municipal Airport, CA22 mi69 minVar 310.00 miFair61°F42°F50%1023 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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NW9NW14
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NW12N9N4NW5W4NW6CalmW3CalmCalm3CalmN6N12
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1 day agoSW6SW7SW9SW9SW5S3CalmCalmNW4E3NW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4NW3CalmNW5NW13NW14
2 days agoSW9SW10S6W4S4W5CalmSE5SE6SE7CalmE6SE4SE7SE11SE10SE9SE8SE9S5SE9SE10SE11S9

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California
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Morro Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:49 AM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:13 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM PDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:40 PM PDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:59 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:11 PM PDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.22.12.32.73.33.94.34.44.13.42.51.50.60.100.41.122.83.53.73.63.2

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM PDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:12 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM PDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:00 PM PDT     -2.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:59 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:38 PM PDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.100.411.51.81.91.610.1-0.8-1.6-2.2-2.4-2.2-1.6-0.8-0.10.60.910.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.