Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cayucos, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:53PM Thursday November 23, 2017 7:54 PM PST (03:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:53AMMoonset 9:22PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 202 Pm Pst Thu Nov 23 2017
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then chance of rain.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 16 seconds, building to 8 ft at 16 seconds after midnight. Chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 11 to 14 feet.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft.
PZZ600 202 Pm Pst Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 1 pm pst...a 1028 mb high was over western colorado with a ridge extending to a 1022 mb high 300 nm W of point conception. A weak trough of low pressure was along the southern ca coast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cayucos, CA
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location: 35.43, -120.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 232331
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
331 pm pst Thu nov 23 2017
new aviation discussion

Synopsis
Record or near record temperatures are forecast to continue
through Friday as the strong upper ridge and weak offshore flow
continues to persist over the region. An area of low pressure
will approach by Sunday with increasing clouds and cooler
temperatures. There is a chance of showers for areas north of
point conception Sunday night into Monday. Surface high pressure
is expected to return early next week with some gusty offshore
winds.

Short term (tdy-sun)
another day of widespread and unseasonably record heat is
occurring across the region today. Many high temperatures have
tied or eclipsed record levels for today, including the hottest
temperature recorded on thanksgiving day at downtown los angeles
since records began in 1877. With a high temperature of 91
degrees, so far, downtown los angeles has broken the old mark for
thanksgiving day set on november 26, 1903. Remember, this
temperature is not the same as a daily record, since thanksgiving
day falls on the fourth Thursday in november. The only areas that
fell short of records for today were the santa barbara south
coast and the central coast.

Strong high pressure, responsible for the hot and dry air mass in
place, will weaken and flatten through the weekend as a broad
trough over the eastern pacific ocean slowly displaces the ridge.

Cooling, albeit slightly, will become more widespread on Friday
and Saturday, with better cooling spreading over the area on
Sunday and Monday.

The trough will approach the west coast over the weekend with a
stronger cold front scheduled to push south into the area between
Sunday and Monday morning. Model solutions are offering up timing
differences with the arrival of the cold frontal boundary, but
good agreement exists for the possibility of precipitation, mainly
north of point conception. Shower activity cannot be ruled out
south of point conception at this point as model solutions do
bring some moisture and instability south, but the question that
lingers is "how much?"
pops have been increased substantially for areas north of point
conception as both ECMWF and GFS solutions increase 850 mb mixing
ratios in excess of 8 g kg.

A northerly surface pressure gradient will develop and tighten on
Sunday night and Monday behind the frontal boundary. Gusty winds,
possibly reaching advisory levels, could develop through the
interstate 5 corridor and across southern santa barbara county on
Sunday night and into Monday morning.

Long term (mon-thu)
model solutions continue to suggest a strong offshore flow pattern
developing Monday through Tuesday, then lingering into midweek.

At least, advisory level santa ana winds look to develop along
with a warming and drying trend for Tuesday and Wednesday. The
offshore flow regime could linger into Thursday. GFS solutions
tighten klax-kdag to -7.5 mb on Tuesday morning.

In wind-sheltered locations, clear skies and less winds will allow
for radiative cooling processes to be more efficient during the
overnight hours. As a result, the interior valleys such as the
antelope, cuyama, and san luis obispo county valleys could have
some frost, and maybe freeze conditions for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Model solutions are struggling with developing a trough over the
eastern pacific ocean for late next week. Timing and run-to-run
consistency issues are plaguing the models at this time, but a
degree confidence exists to bring cooler temperatures and partly
cloudy skies for late next week.

Aviation 23 2330z...

good confidence with 00z tafs. Weak to occasionally moderate llws
is possible for kbur and ksba from 02z to 18z. There is a 20
percent chance of MVFR haze at coastal TAF sites between 08z and
20z.

Klax... Good confidence in 00z taf. There is a 20 percent chance
of MVFR haze between 08z and 20z
kbur... Good confidence in 00z taf.

Marine 23 100 pm...

for the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Small craft advisory (sca) level winds are expected
through Friday evening across pzz670 673. For pzz676, SCA level
wind gusts will be more localized. Winds will diminish all areas
on Saturday. However for Sunday through Tuesday, northwest winds
will increase to SCA levels with even a 30% chance of gale force
gusts on Monday.

For the inner waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For the waters north of point sal, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels through Sunday although there
is a 20% chance of SCA level winds Friday afternoon evening. On
Monday and Tuesday, northwest winds will increase with SCA level
winds likely. For the waters south of point conception, winds and
seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday afternoon. For
Sunday night and Monday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level
northerly winds across western sections. On Tuesday, the winds
will shift to the northeast with a chance of SCA level winds from
ventura south to santa monica.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst Friday for
zones 670-673. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
there is the potential for elevated to critical fire weather
conditions Monday through Wednesday for portions of southwest
california. From Monday into Monday night, there is the potential
for strong northerly winds, followed by the potential for
strong santa ana winds and low humidities on Tuesday, with gusty
offshore winds lingering into Wednesday.

Public... Hall
aviation... Munroe
marine... Rat
synopsis... Kaplan b
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 16 mi58 min 60°F5 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 19 mi55 min N 2.9 G 2.9 61°F 59°F1016 hPa (+0.6)
CPXC1 19 mi37 min N 1 G 1.9 60°F 1015.8 hPa56°F
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 34 mi65 min NW 16 G 19 63°F 62°F9 ft1015.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA18 mi2 hrsW 810.00 miFair66°F51°F59%1014.5 hPa
Paso Robles Municipal Airport, CA22 mi62 minSSE 67.00 miFair67°F50°F55%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmE4NW4CalmCalmCalmW7NW11NW16NW10NW15NW8W8SE3
1 day agoCalmSE4CalmCalmE4CalmE4W3SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3W3CalmN3CalmNW13NW13NW11NW8NW8CalmNW3
2 days agoNW7CalmSE4S3CalmSE3CalmCalmSW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W3W7W5SE4NW5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California
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Morro Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:54 AM PST     3.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM PST     2.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:52 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM PST     4.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:40 PM PST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:22 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.23.33.232.92.833.33.84.24.54.64.43.93.22.41.610.60.60.81.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:01 AM PST     0.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM PST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:51 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:28 AM PST     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:23 PM PST     -2.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:22 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.60.70.60.50.30.30.50.91.41.82.12.11.71.10.2-0.8-1.7-2.3-2.7-2.6-2.2-1.6-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.