Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cayucos, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:13PM Monday March 18, 2019 7:12 PM PDT (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 4:48AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 206 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 18 seconds, building to 8 to 9 ft at 17 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 15 seconds. Showers in the morning, then showers likely.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 14 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft. Slight chance of showers.
PZZ600 206 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 2 pm pdt...a 999 mb low was located around 600 nm W of eureka. A 1018 mb high was located 500 nm sw of point conception.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cayucos, CA
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location: 35.43, -120.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 190036
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
536 pm pdt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis 18 1143 am.

Following warm and dry conditions today, a storm system will
approach the area on Tuesday... Clouds will increase and max
temperatures will fall. Showers are likely on Wednesday along with
some mountain snow and a slight chance of mountain thunderstorms.

The system will move out of the area Thursday and skies will
clear through the day. It will be dry and warmer on Friday.

Short term (tdy-thu) 18 230 pm.

Temperatures are down over most of the coastal and valley areas
today as the offshore flow abates and onshore flow takes hold.

Temperatures are still well above normal under sunny skies. Low
visibilities along the coast will be the main issue for tonight
into Tuesday, as a strong inversion and shallow marine layer
will likely create dense fog. This could impact lax and lgb
airports with travel delays, as well as other coastal airports.

Tuesday will be cooler with temperatures around normal as
pressure gradients turn more onshore, and clouds increase with the
approaching storm. Not much change in terms of the details of
this storm, with minimal impacts expected. Low pressure aloft
currently centered 1200 miles west of los angeles will move over
the central coast Tuesday night, then move little through
Wednesday. Still looking for rain to be focused during the late
Tuesday night and Wednesday time period. The one change made to
the forecast is expansion of thunderstorms. With plenty of cold
air aloft (-26c at 500mb), there will be marginal instability
first over the coastal sections Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, then over most of the area Wednesday afternoon and night
as the low moves directly over the region. There remains a fair
amount of uncertainty in regards to rainfall amounts due to the
expected showery nature and thunderstorm factor. In general,
amounts should range between 0.10 and 0.25 inches of los angeles
county, and 0.25 and 0.50 inches over the other three counties.

Local amounts up to around 1.00 inches is possible under heavier
showers or thunderstorms. Rainfall rates should generally stay
under 0.25 inches per hour, but could top out at 0.50 inches per
hour basically anywhere under a thunderstorm. The threat for
debris flows are minimal. Impacts will likely stay confined to
travel issues from wet roads. Snow levels should stay in the 5,000
to 6,000 foot range, but could lower to 4,000 feet Wednesday
morning in the most unstable airmass. Could see a dusting of snow
on some mountain roads, but accumulations should stay above 5,500
feet. We may need a winter weather advisory, with santa barbara
and ventura counties the most favorable, but it is very
borderline. There will be some gusty south winds as well,
especially Tuesday into early Wednesday, but looks under any wind
advisories at this point. Temperatures will fall below normal to
no surprise.

Due to the slow movement of the system, we could still see
scattered showers anywhere on Thursday, especially over the
interior areas. Temperatures will remain below normal. As the
center of the low moves further to the east later Thursday, gusty
northwest winds will form and will flirt with a wind advisory over
south sba county and the i-5 corridor.

Long term (fri-mon) 18 235 pm.

Besides some possible showers on the northern slopes, Friday looks
dry and a few degrees warmer than Thursday. A very weak upper
level trough will then pass through northern california Saturday
morning, but whether or not our area receives light rain or
nothing remains a tale between model brothers. The ECMWF continues
to show light amounts over much of the area, while the GFS and 90
percent of its ensemble members are completely dry. This adds up
to a chance of rain for Saturday. Sunday and Monday look warm as
an upper level ridge quickly forms behind the trough, and onshore
flow weakens. Above normal temperatures are possible under such a
pattern.

Aviation 19 0036z.

At 00z at klax, there was a 1000 ft marine layer. The top of he
inversion was around 1800 ft with a temperature of 19 degrees c.

Expect widespread low clouds to affect most coastal areas
overnight, with generally ifr to lifr conds and local vlifr conds.

Skies should clear by mid morning in most areas.

Klax... Low to moderate confidence in the 00z taf. There is a 30%
chance that CIGS will arrive as early as 06z. There is a 20%
chance of dense fog with vsbys 1 2nm or less. There is a 20%
chance that east winds will reach 8-10 kt between 10z and 16z.

Kbur... High confidence in the 00z TAF withVFR conds thru the pd.

Marine 18 200 pm.

For the outer waters, high confidence in the forecast thru tue
morning with winds and seas below small craft advisory (sca)
levels. By Tuesday afternoon into Tue evening, there is a 50%
chance for the northern zone (pzz670)for southerly winds
increasing to SCA level gusts. On Wed and thu, there is a 50%
chance of SCA level W to NW winds across the entire outer waters.

For the inner waters north of pt sal, high confidence in current
forecast through Tue night with winds and seas below SCA levels.

On wed, there is a 20%-30% chance of SCA level SW winds, and for
thu there is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level W to NW winds.

For the inner waters south of pt conception, there is high
confidence that winds and seas will be below SCA levels through
tue night. On wed, there is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level W wind
gusts at times, and for Thu there is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level
w to NW wind gusts at times.

A large west swell will affect the coast mainly at west facing
beaches with high surf beginning Tuesday night. A high surf
advisory has been issued for the central coast and the beaches of
los angeles ventura counties with the biggest impact during times
of morning high tide on Wednesday at west facing beaches. (see
laxcfwlox for details.)
dense fog is spreading across much of the coastal waters at this
time and patchy dense fog is likely to cause sudden reductions in
visibility. (see laxmwslox for details.)

Beaches 18 1203 pm.

A large west swell is expected to move into the coastal sections
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Due to the west component of this
swell, high surf is also possible south of point conception. The
breakers are expected to rise to just above 10 feet on the central
coast and around 4-8 feet south of point conception. The strongest
impact will be felt on west facing beaches.

In addition, a significant high tide each morning will probably
cause a bit of beach erosion and minor tidal overflow.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect from 11 pm Tuesday to 11 pm pdt
Wednesday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

High surf advisory in effect from 5 am Wednesday to 3 pm pdt
Thursday for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
Showers with a dusting of snow on mountain roads are possible on
Thursday. Gusty northwest winds will create difficult driving
conditions. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected
over the weekend.

Public... Kittell
aviation... Db
marine... Sweet
beaches... Sweet
synopsis... Jll
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 16 mi43 min 61°F4 ft
CPXC1 19 mi33 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 54°F 1015.1 hPa51°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 19 mi43 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 54°F1015.2 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 34 mi83 min N 5.8 G 5.8 54°F 57°F5 ft1014.6 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA18 mi17 minNW 410.00 miFair58°F48°F70%1014.3 hPa
Paso Robles Municipal Airport, CA22 mi20 minSSW 810.00 miFair66°F35°F32%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3E3CalmCalmW4NW4W5S6W7SW8NW8NW5NW4
1 day agoNW7W8CalmE3CalmS4CalmE3CalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW8NW11
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2 days agoNW7W5CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmW8NW16NW17
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Tide / Current Tables for Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California
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Morro Beach
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Mon -- 02:42 AM PDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:47 AM PDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:38 PM PDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM PDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.821.51.41.82.63.74.75.55.65.24.12.61.1-0.2-1-1.1-0.50.623.34.14.54.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis, California
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Port San Luis
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Mon -- 02:21 AM PDT     1.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:22 PM PDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM PDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.21.81.92.53.44.45.35.85.853.82.20.7-0.5-1.1-1-0.212.33.54.34.54.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.