Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swan Quarter, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:15PM Saturday May 27, 2017 1:23 PM EDT (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 9:18PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 1241 Pm Edt Sat May 27 2017
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw. Waves flat, increasing to light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swan Quarter, NC
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location: 35.45, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 271649
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1249 pm edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
A frontal system will move into the area tonight and become
stationary through Sunday, then lift northeast Sunday night.

A cold front will drift in Monday night and become stationary
along the coast through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1250 pm Saturday... No major changes to the current
forecast as clear skies prevail across the region except for a
few fair-weather cumulus. Temperatures are on track as
temperatures at midday are already well into the 80s inland and
near 80 coast. Highs should peak in the lower 90s inland to mid
80s coast. Trends in the latest high-resolution hrrr and rap
models continue to hold off any threat of precipitation until
after 00z tonight as mid-level shortwave and weak front
approach the region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 3 am sat... A surface low with its associated cold front
will move ese through va, exiting the coast around 06z. The
trailing cold front will move into the central part of the
forecast area after midnight. At the same time strong shortwave
energy will cross E nc. Models continue to show scattered
coverage for the area with the best chance in the northeast.

New SPC day 1 outlook has slight risk in the northwest counties
with marginal risk elsewhere, with the main threats being
damaging winds and hail. Will mention this in the hazardous
weather outlook.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 330 am Saturday... Latest guidance has led to slightly
increased confidence in precip timing for Sunday-Monday but
continued low confidence rest of period due to timing of short
waves and frontal boundaries across area.

Sunday-Sunday night... Weak frontal boundary will be stalled w-e
across area but short-wave energy relatively weak, thus
expecting scattered convective development mainly in afternoon
and evening. Some potential for activity to continue overnight
with frontal boundary remaining stalled across area, thus will
continue chance pops overnight. Increasing deep layer shear
during afternoon could lead to a few strong to marginally severe
storms. Weak NE flow for northern obx will keep highs 75-80
there while SW sections will remain in warm sector with highs
near 90.

Monday-Monday night... Models generally agree on more widespread
convective threat with stronger short wave trough and surface
cold front moving toward area during peak afternoon heating. Gfs
and NAM indicating lis to -10 and capes to near 5000 with deep
layer shear increasing to 40-50 kt, thus increasing concern for
strong to severe storms and SPC day 3 outlook of slight risk of
severe for entire area. Keeping pops in 40-50% range for now.

Guidance indicates low level thicknesses building to near 1430
meters, supportive of MAX temps 90-94 inland of coast. Lows
Monday night remaining muggy 70-74.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... Frontal boundary expected to stall and
wash out across area with additional short wave energy
resulting in another bout of mainly diurnal showers tstms. More
cloud cover and lower thicknesses will keep MAX temps mainly in
the 80s. Lows Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast.

Wednesday-Friday... Low confidence for this forecast period due
to poor model continuity. 00z runs have trended wetter for
Wednesday with front still stalled across area while drier for
Thursday with front off coast. Only forecast adjustment was to
add slight chance pops all zones for Wednesday but left lower
chance pops in place for Thursday. Higher chance pops for Friday
with front lifting back north. MAX temps still in 80s for
Wednesday then around 80 for end of week. Lows from mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Short term through 18z Sunday
as of 1250 pm Saturday...VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the day and tonight. Most of the high-resolution
guidance holds off any convective threat with cold front and
mid-level shortwave approaching the area until after 02-03z and
latest guidance keeps ceilings at or above 3000 feet and in the
vfr range overnight. May add a vcsh or vcts in the hours after
06z but does not appear to be any extended periods of sub-vfr
conditions based on the current guidance suite.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
as of 330 am Saturday... Some lingering sub-vfr conditions
possible Sunday morning in wake of overnight showers tstms with
mainlyVFR Sunday afternoon and evening. Better chance of
periods of sub-vfr with convective activity Monday afternoon and
evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Less coverage
for Wednesday but sub-vfr could linger with front stalled over
area.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of 1250 pm Saturday... Forecast remains unchanged at this time
as SW winds 5-15 knots and seas of 1-3 feet currently prevailing
on area waters. A weak ridge of high pressure to the south
will weaken this afternoon and early evening. A front will drop
in from the north late tonight and become stationary west-east
through the central waters through Sunday. Flow will be
southwest, except becoming west after midnight across the waters
north of oregon inlet and on the albemarle sound behind the
front. Wind speeds will increase tonight to 15-20 knots ahead of
the front. Seas will be building to 3-5 feet from CAPE hatteras
to CAPE lookout tonight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
as of 330 am Saturday... Zonal flow aloft will lead to several
weak front intrusions into area Sunday, Monday night and again
Tuesday night. Southern half of waters will mainly see SW winds
15 kt or less during period but northern waters will see some
periods of shifting winds but with speeds less than 15 kt.

Southern waters will see some periods of seas building to 4 feet
for outer portions with SW winds around 15 kt, otherwise seas
mainly 2-3 feet during period.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Ctc
short term... Hsa
long term... Jbm
aviation... Ctc jbm
marine... Ctc jbm hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi65 min SSW 8.9 G 12 77°F 73°F1014.1 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi71 min S 8.9 G 12 76°F 72°F1013.3 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 56 mi93 min SW 12 G 12 76°F 78°F3 ft1014.3 hPa (+0.0)67°F

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W17
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G13
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SW19
G27
SW18
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G30
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G31
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G31
SW17
G29
SW18
G24
SW15
G24
SW17
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W17
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G27
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S4
G7
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G11
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G11
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G13
SW10
G27
S12
G17
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G21
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G23
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S13
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G24
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SW11
G15
SW11
G17
SW11
G16
SW11
G15
SW13
G17
SW12
G20
SW15
G24
SW19
G27

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC31 mi27 minSSW 13 G 188.00 miFair0°F0°F%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW16
G22
W16
G21
W14
G22
W13W12W7SW5SW5S5S4SW6S6SW5S5SW5SW6SW6SW4SW6SW6SW9SW10SW10SW13
G18
1 day agoSW24
G35
SW24
G37
SW23
G32
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G33
SW20
G28
--SW10SW11SW10SW15
G23
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--W16
G27
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G25
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G24
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G19
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--W15
G23
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W16
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2 days agoS6S7S11--S14S7SW7S8S12
G19
S11S14
G22
S16
G22
S11
G17
S12
G20
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--SW16
G23
SW12
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SW9SW15
G25
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SW23
G32
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G40
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G30

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:04 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:01 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.40.1-0-0.1-00.20.50.8110.80.60.30-0.1-0.100.20.611.31.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
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Ocracoke Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:30 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:55 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.60-0.3-0.300.61.21.82.12.11.81.30.60.1-0.2-0.30.10.61.322.42.62.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.