Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 4:53 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 210114 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 914 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest on Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and storms mainly to the mountains. The front will stall over the area Friday, keeping rain chances through weekend and into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 900 PM EDT Monday: Isolated showers linger across portions of the North Carolina mountains this evening and the lightning potential looks to be over. Thus, the HWO mention for lightning through the evening was removed. Lowered PoPs to slight chance (15%- 20%) over the next few hours, with dry conditions returning for the mountain zones around midnight. Stratocu has increased in coverage across the NC/GA/SC mountains, the NC Foothills, and the northern SC Upstate the last few hours. Went ahead and blended in some cloudier guidance to bump up cloud cover across these areas through the overnight hours.

Otherwise, persistence looks like a really good forecast over the next 24 hours as the salient features don't change much. We continue to enjoy a positively-tilted mid/upper ridge that supports weak high pressure to our northeast. As a result, expect another round of mountain valley low stratus/fog late tonight, with some locally dense. Once that mixes out in the middle-part of the morning, the day should be quiet again east of the mtns, but ridgetop showers can be expected in the mid/late afternoon. High temps will nudge upward a bit, maybe a category above normal Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Monday: An upper ridge axis starts out the period over the area. The axis slowly moves east and becomes suppressed by the end of the period as some weak short waves top move through the flow. The result Is a very low chance of diurnal mountain convection Wednesday, then a better chance on Thursday as the cap erodes allowing sbCAPE to be realized. For now, chance PoP on Thursday is limited to the mountains and I-40 corridor, with isolated PoP south of there to the I-85 corridor. Highs will be well above normal both days, making a run at 90 for the CLT Metro, Upstate, and NE GA. Lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal as well.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: An active pattern returns for this period as a series of short waves move east across the area. These will push a series of low pressure/frontal systems across the area as well. Expect good to numerous, mainly diurnal, convective coverage each day, with the highest PoP favoring the mountains. Still to early to be certain on the severe storm chances given the potential for limited instability, even though forcing and shear will be decent. Heavy rain potential may eventually creep up as well, especially if the better coverage hits the same areas day after day.
Highs will drop a few degrees on Friday then remain nearly steady through the period. Lows rise a few degrees then remain nearly steady.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Stratocu has expanded in coverage across the mountains, the northern SC Upstate, and the NC Foothills this evening. This is mainly impacting the SC Upstate terminals, KAVL, and KHKY as KCLT has clear skies in place. Dry conditions are noted east of the mountains, lingering through the remainder of the 00Z TAF period. Isolated showers continue over portions of the North Carolina mountains this evening, mainly impacting KAVL. Thus, have VCSH mentioned through 03Z at the terminal. Mountain valley fog should develop again overnight into daybreak Tuesday, mainly impacting KAVL. Went with prevailing IFR vsbys by 0700Z with a TEMPO for LIFR vsbys and cigs from 0900Z-1200Z. Patchy fog could briefly develop again at KHKY around daybreak, so maintained the VFR fog mention. Fog should mix out shortly after sunrise. Another round of VFR cumulus should develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, although KAVL may see low-end MVFR cumulus develop. KAVL will likely see another round of isolated SHRA/TSRA late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening, so have VCSH at the terminal starting at 2100Z. Winds are expected to be calm this evening into daybreak Tuesday, picking up out of the S/SE by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure remains over the terminals through Wednesday but isolated mountaintop convection is expected each afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms, along with restrictions, may return with a cold front late Thursday into Friday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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