Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 11:51 AM   Moonset 1:11 AM

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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 909 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Overnight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Waves light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late this evening and early morning, then a slight chance of showers late. Thu - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves light chop. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers after midnight. Sat - S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sat night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 909 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Another round of poor boating conditions is possible early next week in the wake of weekend low pressure.

FXUS62 KMHX 160200 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will sweep across ENC tonight with high pressure building in behind it, keeping Thursday dry. Another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.

NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/
As of 10 PM Wed...Severe threat has since ended, and in it's wake an MCV has formed off the NC coast with a stratiform rain area with some embedded thunder in it's wake. Thus will hang onto likely showers with chc thunder through the next few hours, before showers taper off and move offshore. Rest of the night is quiet.

Prev disc
As of 707 PM Wed
Severe storms that formed over the last two hours are beginning to weaken over the past 30 min, and should cont to do so. Still, some small hail and gusty winds can be expected with any remaining storms through around 9 pm this evening, before storms weaken to showers and eventually dissipating after midnight. Remainder of the night will be quiet, with some patchy light fog developing late.

Prev disc...As of 3:30 PM Wednesday...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front draped nearly parallel to Core Banks. This boundary has been a source of lift for the showers and thunderstorms that have moved across the area over the past several hours.

All convection within the FA has waned, but a second round is expected later this afternoon and evening (especially south of HWY 64) due to a cold front and mid-level low moving across the area. Storms that develop have the potential to become strong to severe given the RAP mesoanalysis showing 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 50-55+ kt of effect shear, and mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km. As a result, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM for Lenoir, Pamlico, Jones, Craven, Duplin, Onslow, and Carteret Counties. The primary concerns with these storms are damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe threat will decrease after sunset, but strong to severe storms are still possible through the evening. Convection will decrease after midnight and lows will drop to the low 60s across the area.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 4 PM Wednesday...A nice day is in store as we settle into the post-frontal air mass and upper ridging builds in. Cloud cover will hang around through the day, but we'll be dry with highs in the upper 70s along the coastal plain and low 70s along the OBX.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 430 AM Wednesday...High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend. High pressure builds in early next week.

Thursday through Friday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. Lowered PoPs to below mentionable with most guidance now indicating dry conditions and model soundings showing only a shallow saturated layer above 850mb and very dry well mixed conditions below that. If any showers do develop, they will likely only produce virga. Ridging crest over the area Friday with mainly dry conditions expected but will see increasing clouds as the next system approaches and could see an isolated shower move in from the west late in the day.

Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through most of the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the region through much of the period.

Monday and Tuesday...The upper low slowly pulls away from the area early next week with high pressure building in from the west with generally dry conditions expected.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 707 PM Wed...A mixed bag of flight categories is expected over the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms that developed south of Hwy 70, will be ongoing through the mid evening, and eventually dissipate by midnight. With the today's rainfall and overnight winds expected to go light to calm, fog development cannot be ruled out, but the most likely scenario will be IFR to possibly LIFR stratus. Conditions will improve to VFR by mid- morning.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected Thursday through Friday with high pressure building into the area. Another low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Wed...Poor boating conditions continue with 4-6 ft seas and SW winds around 10-15 kt, veering to the NW overnight.
SCA conditions should cease by early tomorrow morning with seas decreasing to 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will slowly push away from the area Thursday with high pressure transitioning across the waters on Friday with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Criteria. A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through the weekend but cannot rule out a period of low end SCA mainly late Saturday/Saturday night. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will be late in the weekend or early next week as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ158.

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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:11 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:52 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:44 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:10 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:14 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:43 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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