Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
River Road, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:03PM Sunday September 24, 2017 2:42 AM EDT (06:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 8:59PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 124 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Road, NC
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location: 35.49, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 240556
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
156 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.

Hurricane maria is expected to track slowly off the east coast
early to mid next week. A cold front will cross the area late next
week. Please see the latest official forecasts from the national
hurricane center and local NWS offices.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 930 pm Saturday... Fcst on track with no changes planned.

Prev disc... High pressure will continue to build south over
eastern nc tonight with mostly clear skies. Winds west of
highway 17 could decouple which would lead to patchy fog
development late. Further east, the pressure gradient will
tighten producing a light northerly breeze inhibiting fog
formation. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s inland and low
70s beaches.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
As of 310 pm Saturday... Continued dry and warm with mostly
sunny skies Sunday as high pressure remains over the area.

Winds will increase, especially along the coast, as the
gradient between high pressure to our north and maria off the se
coast will be stronger. Highs again will be in the lower to
middle 80s.

Long term tonight through Saturday
As of 315 pm Saturday... The big player in the forecast for the week
ahead will be hurricane maria tracking off the coast. There remains
high uncertainty with the exact track of the storm, but there has
been an increasing chance that there will be some significant
impacts along the coast. Eastern nc residents and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from nhc.

Sunday night through Monday night... Surface high pressure and upper
ridge will continue to build in from the north early next week, as
the remnants of jose weakens well off the NE coast. Expect Sunday
night to be predominately dry, but could see some showers pushing
onshore as early as Monday as maria lifts north off the southeast
coast. Expect slightly above normal temps with highs in the mid 80s
inland to upper 70s along the coast. Monday night lows expected in
the upper 60s coastal plain to low to mid 70s along the coast.

Tuesday through Friday... Hurricane maria is currently forecast
to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week. Eventual
track will be determined by several factors including the
strength of the upper ridge and the timing of a shortwave trough
and attendant cold front expected to push across the mid-
atlantic states mid to late week. It is still too soon to
determine specific impacts for eastern nc, which will be very
dependent on the track how close to the coast it gets. There is some
fair amount of spread in the models, but some, like the GFS bring a
strong maria closer to the coast. Regardless of the exact track,
rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely through much of
next week, as large long period southeast swells build.

At a minimum, coastal areas can expect gusty N NW winds close to
tropical storm force, minor coastal flooding, and ocean
overwash erosion will be also possible, with the greatest threat
along the outer banks. At this point can't rule out more impactful
coastal flooding for the southern pamlico sound and sound side of
the outer banks and ocracoke. Residents in low lying vulnerable
areas should closely monitor the forecast.

Continue slight chance to chance pops through mid week, highest
eastern sections. The next frontal system will approach the area
late week aiding to maria pushes further ene offshore.

Temps through the period, near to slightly above normal with
highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 60s low 70s.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 150 am pm Saturday... MainlyVFR as a very light NE wind
and high clouds shld limit fog threat to deep inland. Felt best
risk for brief ifr would be at kpgv otherwise wind and clouds
should be enough to prevent widespread fog formation. Any fog
and low clouds shld dissipate in the morn withVFR rest of the
day.VFR expected tonight.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 315 pm Saturday...VFR conditions will dominate through
mon, though some early morning fg br and low stratus may develop
each night as a ridge of high pres will be across the region.

Periods of sub-vfr poss Tue into Thu with isold to sct showers
pushing onshore as maria lifts toward the region.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 930 pm Saturday... Fcst on track with swells from maria
keeping seas elevated.

Prev disc... Hurricane maria swell will continue to impact the
nc waters through Sunday. Current 5 to 8 ft seas will build to 6
to 10 ft overnight and 7 to 13 ft Sunday. Light northerly winds
through this evening will increase out of the northeast
overnight to 10 to 20 kts and to 15 to 25 kts (highest southern
waters) Sunday, as the gradient increases over the waters
between high pressure to our north and maria well off the se
coast.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 315 pm Saturday... High pres centered over the great lakes
will build down into the SE through the period, while hurricane
maria lifts N off the SE coast. Increasing uncertainty conts
regarding the track of maria as it approaches the region as
latest model guidance conts a westward trend closer the the nc
coast as well as conts to slow it down. Mariners and interested
parties should cont to monitor the latest official forecasts
from nhc. SCA cont for all coastal waters thru the period.

Based on the latest forecast, N NE winds increase to 15-25 kt
Sunday night thru Tue as maria lifts northward, increasing to
25 to 30 kt on the cusp of trop storm force Tue night thru wed.

The GFS showed significantly stronger winds, but did not buy
off on that at this time. Winds will begin to decrease slowly as
maria pulls away from the coast Wed night into thu. There will
be a long period of very dangerous boating conditions tue
through wed, with seas peaking close to 20 ft in our coastal
waters, and could be possibly higher depending on how maria
behaves.

Dangerous high surf, at least minor overwash, and dangerous rip
currents are almost a certainty.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

High surf advisory from 6 am this morning to 8 pm edt Monday
for ncz095-098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for amz150-152-
154-156-158.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Rf jme
short term... Jme
long term... Rsb
aviation... Rsb eh
marine... Rsb rf jme


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 56 mi42 min NE 6 G 8.9 74°F 77°F1015.6 hPa (-0.8)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 65 mi42 min NE 16 G 18 75°F 1015.9 hPa (-0.8)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 71 mi42 min ENE 8 G 12 73°F 79°F1016.4 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC6 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair66°F64°F96%1017.6 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC23 mi47 minNNE 310.00 miFair66°F66°F100%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4N8NE5NE4NE6NE8NE6NE6NE4N3NE3NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmNE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4CalmN5N6NW3N4N4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5CalmN3CalmN3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmE6NE6NE3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE6CalmSE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:20 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.11.81.30.90.50.30.40.71.21.82.32.52.52.21.81.30.90.50.40.60.91.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:56 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:19 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.91.81.61.20.80.50.30.30.511.51.92.12.11.91.61.20.80.50.40.40.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.