Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
River Road, NC

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Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:21PM Monday July 23, 2018 11:36 AM EDT (15:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 932 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Road, NC
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location: 35.49, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231357
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
957 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
The area will remain between high pressure offshore and low
pressure to the west and southwest through mid to late week.

Associated warm and moist southerly flow will produce above
normal chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least
Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 950 am Monday... Latest IR and water vapor satellite
showing enhanced convection with colder cloud tops south of the
southern coast at mid-morning as persistent band of mostly
light to moderate rain continues to move over the outer banks.

This enhanced band to the south will continue to drift toward
the crystal coast through early afternoon. The high-resolution
models are not handling the placement of this precipitation very
well at this time and will follow trends in satellite imagery
for the near-term forecast. Current trends continue to indicate
that areas east of highway 17 will be at greatest threat of
flash flooding today, with lesser chance over the western cwa.

Will continue high likely to categorical pops into the afternoon
as flash flood watch continues. No changes needed for high
temperatures which should reach the lower 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As of 240 am mon... Little change in pattern with cont threat for
very heavy rain as ocnl shra and tsra lift N across the region
in deep southerly flow. Will keep pops in likely to cat range
with again threat for 2 inches or more of rain is short period
of time that could lead to low lying, poor drainage or urban
flooding. Muggy lows in the 70s will cont.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 330 am Monday... Models remain in good agreement with a
very wet pattern through Wed night, transitioning to more
typical pattern Thu into the weekend. Periods of showers and
storms with moderate to heavy rain will result in widespread
additional 2-4 inches of rain tue-wed with locally higher
amounts and a threat of flooding.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Deep, warm, and moist southerly
flow will persist through much of the upcoming week between
broad low pressure aloft over the deep south states and western
atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for widespread
showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during peak heating
and when periodic shortwaves move through mean flow aloft.

Timing of midlevel features continues to be difficult but but
guidance in good agreement of likely to categorical pops both
days with threat of locally excessive rainfall amounts. Flash
flood watch in effect through Tuesday evening but may eventually
need to be extended into Wednesday based on observed rainfall
amounts the next 36 hours. While moisture will be abundant,
instability and shear will be marginal for supporting widespread
severe convection; thus expect diurnally- driven isolated
severe storm potential each afternoon.

Thursday through Sunday... The persistent upper trough to our
west finally fills and shifts northeast from the deep south
states towards the mid-atlantic, with high pressure continuing
offshore. Another deep trough digs into the northern great lakes
region, which will shift the moisture advection from S SE to
southwesterly. Expect convection to be more diurnally focused
each day with a more typical summertime pattern.

With widespread clouds and rainfall, lowered MAX temps a few
degrees for Tue and Wed for mainly low to mid 80s. Temps will
rise to average late july temperatures by Thursday through the
weekend. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s
throughout the period.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 625 am mon... A plume of tropical moisture is forecast to
cont over eastern nc which will help support ocnl bouts of
heavy showers and thunderstorms. Outside of convection expect
mainlyVFR with some lower CIGS poss at times espcly overnight
and early morn. Nearly impossible to time exactly when
convection will move over a terminal but expect a few periods of
MVFR ifr to occur when it does.

Long term Tue through Friday ...

as of 340 am Monday... Periodic sub-vfr conditions are expected
through the period due to very wet pattern. Lowered ceilings
and visibilities will be most likely Tue through Wed with
widespread coverage and extended duration of showers and storms
due to deep southerly flow. Less coverage and duration expected thu-
fri as pattern gradually returns to more SW flow aloft.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 955 am Monday... Gusty SE S winds will continue on the
coastal waters and pamlico sound through the afternoon with seas
as high as 8-9 feet, especially central and northern waters. No
major changes to the forecast at this time.

Prev disc... S to SE flow 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt at
times will continue over the waters through tonight as gradient
remains tight between atlantic high pressure and low pressure to
the sw. Seas 4 to 7 ft will build to 5-9 today and tonight.

Will cont SCA coastal waters and pamlico sound. Ocnl tstms will
lead to threat for strong gusts from time to time as well.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 340 am Monday... Ongoing SCA conditions for gusty southerly
winds and elevated seas outer waters will persist into
Wednesday night with continued tight pressure gradient between
high pressure offshore and low pressure inland. Winds and seas
will gradually diminish Thu into Friday with shift to more
typical mid-summer bermuda high pattern. Based on latest
forecast, adjusted SCA ending to early Thu for northern waters
and Thu evening for southern and central waters.

Equipment
As of 10 am mon... Radar is down as parts on order and they
should arrive today.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Flash flood watch through Tuesday evening for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103-104.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz095-
098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Friday for amz152-154-156-
158.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Ctc
short term... Rf
long term... Dag jbm
aviation... Rf jbm
marine... Rf ctc jbm
equipment... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 56 mi42 min SE 12 G 15 78°F 82°F1013.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 65 mi36 min ESE 18 G 20 1013.5 hPa (+0.9)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 71 mi36 min SE 8.9 G 13 76°F 80°F1015 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S16
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NW8
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SE9
G13
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E14
G20
E6
G11
NE6
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G14
NE6
G9
SE4
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G12
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SE9
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G12
S17
G22
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W1
N1
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NW5
G8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC6 mi41 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F84%1013.9 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC23 mi26 minSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7
G14
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SE9SE8SE6E6CalmE5E4E4CalmCalmCalmE5E4CalmSE8S6SE9
1 day agoW5W5NW8
G14
W9W8W8
G14
W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S5S5S5SE4S5SE6S5S4N4CalmSE9
2 days agoE9
G14
E8E11
G15
E10
G15
E9E8E8E7E5NE7NE7NE7E8E7NE8NE7NE4NE4N6N7W3W6NW7W7

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Mon -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:36 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.40.81.21.61.81.81.61.20.80.50.30.20.50.91.41.82.22.32.11.81.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:58 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.20.30.611.31.51.51.31.10.80.50.20.20.30.61.11.51.81.91.81.61.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.