Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
River Road, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:24PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:27 PM EST (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:53PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 748 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.gale warning in effect from 4 am est Sunday through Monday morning...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers early this evening. A chance of showers after midnight, then showers with isolated tstms late.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the morning. Waves around 3 ft.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, then a chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Road, NC
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location: 35.49, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 200007
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
707 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front approaching the area tonight will move through
tomorrow morning. Arctic high pressure will then build in from the
west early next week. Another cold front will approach from the west
midweek and move offshore late in the week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 7 pm sat... Last of the showers will exit the northern
outer banks in the next hour or so. Conditions will then be dry
throughout the area until after midnight when main body of rain
and isolated thunder move in. Adjusted the pops for the next 6
hours or so based on this. No change to temps.

Deep moisture advection will ensue overnight as deep layer
southerly flow fills in ahead of an approaching cold front.

Widespread showers are expected to overspread the area overnight
through early Sunday morning within the primary band of
moisture brought into the region on the back of a strong
pre-frontal llj. Modest instability may develop as dew points
surge to around 60 degrees, and the possibility for isolated
thunder continues in the forecast for all of the area. Any
severe threat will be limited mainly to coastal areas from
carteret county to oregon inlet, where dew points could briefly
climb into the mid-60s around sunrise tomorrow morning,
prompting greater instability based in the low levels to develop
more rigorous convection to become organized within ample deep
layer shear. Accordingly, the immediate coast has been included
within a marginal risk of severe weather from spc. Gusty winds
and possibly an isolated tornado are the primary concerns
within the strongest storms. Even outside of storms, gusty winds
will exist through the pre-dawn hours, especially along the
coast, as the core of the strong LLJ passes overhead.

Temperatures will remain very mild overnight, and should rise a
few degrees into the mid 60s before falling back into the mid
to upper 50s by daybreak.

Short term Sunday night through 6 pm Sunday
As of 230 pm sat... The cold front will work through the area,
tapering significant precip chances from west to east through the
mid to late morning hours tomorrow. Wind speeds will wane briefly
for several hours behind the front before arctic high pressure
building in tightens the gradient again, with breezy northwest
winds bringing efficient CAA across the area by late afternoon.

The daily high temp will be achieved for most locations early in
the day, with temps falling as CAA strengthens by the time of
the normal afternoon diurnal temp maximum.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
As of 230 pm Saturday... Sharply colder Sunday night and Monday
as the coldest air to date of this winter barrels into the area
behind a strong cold front. Dry weather is expected Sunday night
through Tuesday night. Another cold front will affect the
region Wednesday and Thursday with a return to mild and wetter
conditions. Turning dry and gradually cooler late in the week
into the weekend.

Sunday night through Tuesday... CAA advection is extreme Sunday
night as arctic high pressure builds over the area from the
north and this will cause temperatures to plummet to around 20
nw to mid 20s coast by Monday morning. The combination of
strong NW winds behind the front and the cold temperatures will
result in bitterly cold wind chill values of 8-15 degrees
Monday morning. Arctic high pressure continues to build over the
area Monday with brisk NW flow resulting in very cold high
temps of only 30-35 degrees. NW winds of 25-35 mph with higher
gusts expected along the outer banks Sun night and this will
produce minor water level rises for the soundside locations.

Good radiational cooling should occur Mon night with
diminishing winds setting the stage for another cold night with
lows 15 to 20 cooler inland spots to 20s beaches. Warm advection
begins Tue mainly aloft as low lvls will be slow to modify as
strong high pres passes just to the n. Cont below normal with highs
mainly 40 to 45.

Wednesday through sat... Another low pres system will track NW of
region mid week with trailing front moving into the area thu
and offshore late week. Quite mild ahead of the front Wed and
thu with highs mainly low to mid 60s. Best rain chcs will be
wed night into early Thu and have likely pops this time. As
front pushes offshore later Thu thu night precip shld end from w
to e. Mainly dry late week into the weekend as high pres builds
in. Temps will cool to upr 40s and lower 50s most spots Fri and
sat.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 7 pm sat... Widespread sub-vfr across the region early this
evening. Once the strong south winds start up after midnight, a
brief period ofVFR conditions are expected as lower levels
become better mixed. However, as the cold front approaches the
region late tonight, expect rain to become widespread with MVFR
to ifr condition developing; rain can be heavy at times. Plus
llws conditions will be possible at all TAF sites late tonight.

Conditions will improve back toVFR by tomorrow afternoon with
gusty winds up to 25 knots.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 230 pm Saturday... High confidence inVFR Sun night thru
tue as cold dry arctic air spread in. Gusty NW winds likely all
terminals Sun night into mon. Moisture wil surge back into the
region Wed and Thu ahead of next cold front and expect threat
of some subVFR... Espcly Wed night and Thu when best coverage
of shra expected.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 7 pm sat... No changes made to current forecast. Overall,
the next 24 to 36 hours will bring very dangerous marine
conditions.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly this evening and overnight
as winds veer southerly and increase ahead of an approaching
cold front. Gale force winds and large seas will prevail for the
coastal waters south of oregon inlet beginning early Sunday
morning. Breezy conditions will exist over the rest of the
marine waters as well. Winds will decrease to moderate levels
briefly tomorrow morning in the immediate wake of the cold
front, before becoming northwest and increasing beginning
tomorrow afternoon as arctic high pressure muscles its way into
the area. Gale warnings have been issued for the coastal waters
and pamlico sound to cover the pre and post- frontal winds, with
small craft advisories in effect elsewhere. Additionally, a
gale watch remains in effect for the albemarle sound alligator
river, where gale force winds are expected to be limited to the
post-frontal CAA beginning tomorrow evening.

Long term Sunday night through Thu ...

as of 230 pm Saturday... Intense cold advection will lead to
gale force winds most wtrs Sun night. Sustained winds mainly 20
to 30 kts with gusts 30 to 40 kts. Winds diminish grad Mon as
high pres builds closer... Speeds shld reach 15 to 25 kts N and
10 to 20 kt S late. Winds cont to diminish Mon night and Tue as
high pres crosses just to the n... Expect 10 to 20 kt winds early
tue then 10 kts or less late. Winds turn ssw Wed and grad
increase to 10 to 20 kts ahead of next front. Ssw winds peak at
20 to 30 kts with some gusts to 35 kt ahead of front Wed night
and early thu. Winds become more wsw 15 to 25 kt late Thu as
front reaches cst.

Seas will be in the 6 to 10 ft range Sun night into early mon
then subside to 4 to 7 ft late mon... Highest central and n. Seas
subside to 3 to 6 ft early Tue then drop further to 2 to 4 ft
late Tue into Tue night. Seas build back to 3 to 5 ft late wed
and reach 7 to 11 ft late Wed night and Thu as ssw winds peak
ahead of cold front.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 3 pm sat... Gusty southerly winds ahead of an approaching
cold front will result in abnormally high water levels for
portions of dare county along the roanoke and croatan sounds,
as well as the carteret county coastline west of CAPE lookout,
early Sunday morning. Inundation is generally expected to be
less than a foot for very low lying areas.

Additionally, persistent strong northwest winds behind a cold
front late Sunday into Sunday night will result in elevated
water levels along the sound side of hatteras and ocracoke
islands. Inundation is generally expected to be less than a
foot for very low lying areas.

If forecast inundation levels increase to 1 foot or more for
the pre-frontal or post-frontal wind events, a coastal flood
advisory will be issued for the impacted areas.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 9 am est Monday for
amz136-137.

Gale warning from 4 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for amz135.

Gale watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
amz130-131.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 5 pm est Sunday for amz130-
131.

Gale warning from 4 am Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for amz152-
154.

Gale warning from 4 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for amz156-
158.

Gale warning from 1 pm Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Hsa cb
short term... Cb
long term... Rf jme
aviation... Hsa bm rf
marine... Hsa CB rf
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 56 mi57 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 53°F 51°F1010.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 65 mi87 min E 8.9 G 9.9 1010.9 hPa (-2.5)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 71 mi57 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 54°F 49°F1010 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC6 mi47 minSE 50.75 miFog/Mist53°F51°F97%1008.8 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC23 mi32 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast54°F53°F100%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE5NE3NE4E6NE3NE3E3E4E3E7E6E6E8E7SE8E11SE8
G14
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1 day agoE3CalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW7W3NW4NW7CalmNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE6NE4NE4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmN4N4CalmCalmNE5NE5NE7E7NE3E4E3E4CalmNE3NE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 12:38 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:41 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:17 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.3-00.51.21.82.32.42.21.81.30.70.1-0.2-0.200.51.11.61.91.81.510.4

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
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Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:53 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:03 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:16 PM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.30.91.51.92.11.91.61.20.70.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.40.91.41.61.61.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.