Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
River Road, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:22PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:07 AM EST (13:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:49AMMoonset 5:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 657 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft. Areas of fog until late afternoon. A slight chance of showers late. Vsby 1 nm or less this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then rain or snow likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Snow likely in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W around 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Road, NC
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location: 35.49, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 161135
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
635 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Cold high pressure remains over the area today. A cold front will
produce light snow on Wednesday and will push offshore Wednesday
night, followed by high pressure building in from the west late in
the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 635 am tues... Consensus of the high resolution hrrr and
consshort models is for the fog and low stratus invading from
the east is to make it as far southwest as greenville and new
bern during the next 2-3 hours then retreat and dissipate around
15z.

As the fog and stratus dissipate late morning, afternoon
sunshine will help to warm temperatures into the upper 40s to
low 50s. Widely scattered to scattered shower activity is
expected across the outer banks and hyde and dare counties in
association with an inverted trough off the coast. However,
high-res guidance wasn't as robust as the previous forecast, and
have scaled back pops in this region to now be mainly over the
outer banks.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 335 am tues... Increasing clouds Tuesday night will
prohibit another night of lows in the 20s. Low temps are
expected to reach the low 30s inland, and mid 30s along the
coast. Most areas should remain dry ahead of advancing cold
through Wednesday morning.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 345 am Tuesday... Wednesday through Wednesday evening will
be the focus for wintry weather as rain quickly mixes with then
changes over to snow across most of eastern nc by evening.

Fortunately the system will have limited moisture with most
model QPF forecasts indicating 0.25" or less of water
equivalent. Nonetheless, the system will have good forcing to
wring out what moisture is available. The 00z models have come
in slightly cooler suggesting a faster change over to snow
Wednesday afternoon, especially inland as a surface cold front
moves rapidly east across the area Wednesday morning. This will
be an anafront, where precip occurs behind the sfc boundary.

Thus, not expecting freezing rain, as cooling will occur from
top down. Bndry layer wet bulb temps will be near 0 degrees c
through the day, and even though sfc temps will climb to the
upper 30s north to mid 40s south, the arrival of precip will wet
bulb down to the sfc due to dynamic cooling. So expect a brief
period of rain before transitioning to a ra sn mix then quickly
to snow, from northwest areas to southeast. Right now think
timing will be early afternoon for snow across NW zones, finally
switching to snow southeast zones by early evening as the
precip is coming to an end. Best chance of light accums will be
northern and northwestern counties where deeper cold bndry layer
temps will reside. Timing of the snow should adversely affect
the afternoon and evening commute when the heaviest of the snow
is forecast to occur. Column drying occurs Wed evening as deep
layer saturation quickly erodes, and there may be a brief period
of freezing drizzle before precip comes to an end around
midnight. Roads will likely be treacherous where snow falls
through thur morning as overnight lows Wed night expected in the
upper teens to lower 20s inland to 25-30 immediate coast.

Thursday through Sunday... Cold and dry conditions will follow
this low pressure system, with high temps Thursday only topping
out in the upper 30s across the area. Low temps will be very
cold Thursday and Friday mornings with teens expected inland,
and 20s along the coast. As the cold upper trough moves away on
Friday, high temperatures will moderate to around 50. High
pressure moving off the coast, and rising heights will allow
temperatures to warm above average over the weekend, with dry
weather expected.

Monday... A cold front will approach late Monday bringing a
threat of showers to area by evening. Mild temperatures will
continue ahead of the front with highs in the lower to middle
60s expected.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 635 am tues... Main concern is whether the large area of
low clouds and fog producing lifr conditions over the eastern
half of the area will make it as far southwest as greenville and
new bern by 14z as the high resolution hrrr and consshort
models indicate. Will forecast prevailing MVFR temp lifr those
terminals through 16z thenVFR in line with the models.VFR
conditions then are expected to prevail this afternoon through
tonight, though clouds withVFR bases will be on the increase
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 345 am Tuesday... Rain snow will impact flying conditions
Wednesday and Wednesday night, then a return toVFR conditions
are expected Thursday through Saturday with dry high pressure
forecast to be over the area.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 635 am tues... Have issued a dense fog advisory for most
of the waters due to invading area of fog now moving into
southern waters with visibilities currently 1 nm or less in many
locations this morning.

Winds are currently N 10 to 15 kts, with seas 5-8 ft still. Sca
advisories continue for all the coastal waters, with areas
south of ocracoke inlet forecast to come down later this
afternoon. Winds will remain mostly 10-15 kts out of the nnw for
the rest of the period. Seas will be slowly coming down today
with 4-7 ft expected by mid morning, and 3-6 ft likely by
tonight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 345 am Tuesday... Small craft conditions will persist
across the through Thursday dues to gusty northerly winds 20 to
25 kt through Thursday morning and hazardous 5 to 8 ft seas
through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas slowly decrease late
Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday W SW flow around 15 kt
is expected with seas 3-5 ft Friday and 2 to 4 ft Saturday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz130-131-
135-136-150-152-154-156-158.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz156-
158.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for amz150.

Synopsis... Sgk
near term... Jme sgk
short term... Sgk
long term... Jme tl
aviation... Jme sgk
marine... Jme sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 56 mi49 min N 9.9 G 11 33°F 45°F1031.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 65 mi67 min NNW 8 G 8.9 1031.1 hPa (+1.4)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 71 mi49 min N 11 G 12 35°F 43°F1030.2 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N11
G17
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N14
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N13
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N12
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NE12
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G16
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G20
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G23
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SW5
G11
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G17
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G15
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NW14
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G20
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G16
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G21
N17
G29
N13
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G21
N11
G21
N14
G17
N17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC6 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair26°F24°F93%1031.8 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC23 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair27°F23°F86%1032.2 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6N6CalmCalmN6N7CalmN3NW4NW3CalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
1 day agoN9
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N6
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N5N9
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N8NE9NE6N6NE5NE7N9
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N7N10N7N9N6N6N7N4N4N6
2 days agoW7W10
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W9
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NW5NW6
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NW10N8NW6N12
G19
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N10N5N8NE7NE9
G15
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G17
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N8N7N8
G15
N10N9
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EST     2.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:59 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40-0.1-00.40.91.51.92.12.11.81.40.90.40.1-00.10.511.41.71.71.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:30 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EST     1.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:21 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 09:33 PM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.21.61.81.81.61.20.80.40.1-000.30.81.21.41.51.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.