Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waves, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:53PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:54 AM EDT (05:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:55AMMoonset 4:21PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 937 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming w. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waves, NC
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location: 35.51, -74.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 170145
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
945 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure builds into the region through tonight, then
moves off the coast Thursday. A cold front will move into the
area this weekend. This front will move south of the area early
next week.

Near term tonight
As of 945 pm Wednesday... Latest sfc analysis shows weak 1017mb
high pressure centered over SW va, building in over the area
from the north. Latest radar imagery shows light showers over
south central nc, with mostly clear skies across eastern nc.

Expect the overnight to remain pred dry. Areas of fog and low
stratus likely to develop again overnight and early Thu morning
with light E SE winds and still plentiful low level moisture.

Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Short term Thursday
As of 320 pm Wednesday... A weak shortwave will move along the
top of the ridge tomorrow morning... Leading to the ridge
slightly building during the day. Weak sfc high pressure slides
off the coast and the piedmont trough develops inland with cape
values increasing to 2500-3500 j kg with the highest over the
coastal plains. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop, mainly along the seabreeze as its the
only forcing. Expect highs in the around 90 degrees inland and
mid 80s along the beaches.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A return to more moisture and chances
for thunderstorms each day as a cold front moves into the area
this weekend.

Thursday night Friday... Winds gradually shift back into the
south and southwest during this period. This will help to
increase moisture across the area as pwats which had dipped
below 2", climb back above 2" once again. A weak trof south of
our area today should also lift northward during this time. This
boundary will combine with daily sea breeze boundaries to
produce scattered storms from late morning on. As the previous
forecaster mentioned mlcapes of 2 to 3,000 j kg support a few
isolated stronger storms and with the moist atmosphere in place,
heavy rain is likely in any storms that form. Temps will be
warm Friday afternoon with near 90 readings inland, to 80s along
the beaches.

Saturday through Sunday... Model guidance has sped up the timing
of a cold front this weekend a bit. Still thinking more
scattered showers and storms especially Saturday. With a faster
timing, the axis of more storms may shift toward the coast
Sunday versus farther inland. Temps through the weekend still
running near 90 inland to 80s along the coast.

Monday and Tuesday... Somewhat drier and warmer conditions are
still expected for early next week as an upper level ridge
builds and expands across the southeastern united states. Pops
will be lower and slightly lower dewpoints for early next week.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 645 pm Wednesday...VFR conditions currently, but good
chances for widespread ifr lifr fog and stratus again overnight
and early Thu morning. Based on persistence and good agreement
between the forecast soundings and high res guidance, have
moderate to high confidence in development. Expect ceilings and
fog to lift by mid morning with predVFR returning. Scattered
showers and storms expected Thu afternoon, with best chances at
iso oaj ewn.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday...VFR conditions should prevail for most
of the extended period. Brief reductions to MVFR will be
possible in scattered thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, with
locally gusty winds and heavy downpours. Some early morning fog
and patchy stratus may also be possible in areas that receive
decent rainfall through the period.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 945 pm Wednesday... Latest obs show pred NE SE winds 5-10
kt with seas 2-3 ft. The sfc trof axis has pushed off the coast
with weak high pressure building inland resulting in light
onshore flow. Winds will veer E tonight and then SE by Thursday
afternoon. Swell energy from hurricane gert has been subsiding
today and expect to seas to remain 2-3 ft and becoming more like
2 ft Thu afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Good marine conditions expected
through much of the upcoming extended period, outside of any
convection. As a frontal boundary pushes back north on Friday,
winds veer around to the southwest and remain from the southwest
through the weekend. Wind speeds will be mostly 5 to 15 knots
or less with seas 2-3 feet through the period. The exception
will be for a small period Saturday afternoon evening where the
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. In response southwest
winds may be closer to 10 to 20 kts, with seas 2 to 4 feet. By
by Monday a cold front will be south of the coastal waters. This
will shift the winds into the east to southeast with winds
remaining 10 kts or less, and seas around 2 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Eh
near term... Cqd bm
short term... Bm
long term... Eh
aviation... Eh cqd bm
marine... Eh cqd bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41062 20 mi114 min 5.8 G 5.8 78°F 80°F1017.4 hPa (+0.6)
44095 27 mi36 min 79°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 38 mi54 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 82°F1017 hPa (+0.0)
41025 - Diamond Shoals 43 mi64 min N 5.8 G 7.8 80°F 83°F2 ft1016.6 hPa (+0.4)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 46 mi54 min E 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 83°F1016.7 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC41 mi63 minNE 310.00 miFair74°F73°F100%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW4W4W4NW5436464NE8NE765NE7NE8NE5E4E4E3CalmCalmNE3
1 day agoSW4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm33SE5SE7SE7S4S5SW3S4S3SE3SW5SW5SW6NW4SW9
G16
2 days agoSW4SW3CalmSE4SE7SE5SE6S6S7S5S5S4S5S5S8S7S6S4S5S5S4CalmS3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Rodanthe, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Rodanthe
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Thu -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:33 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.40.50.70.90.90.90.80.60.40.30.20.20.30.40.70.91.11.11.10.90.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:36 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:40 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:23 PM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.422.32.32.11.50.90.3-0.1-0.20.10.71.62.43.13.43.42.92.21.40.70.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.