Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waves, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:14PM Friday July 28, 2017 12:54 PM EDT (16:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:32AMMoonset 11:39PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 1014 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds around 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waves, NC
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location: 35.51, -74.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 281423
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1023 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the northwest today and move
offshore late Saturday. High pressure will build behind the
front Sunday into the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 10 am Friday... Minor changes to the near term forecast
based on current trends. Showers and thunderstorms continue over
the counties along the albemarle sound this morning. Made minor
adjust to pop for late morning early afternoon to account to
re-develop along the northern half of the forecast area. A cold
front will slowly approach the region from the northwest today
as a mid- level shortwave rotates across eastern nc later this
evening into tonight. Weak low- level shear and high instability
will lead to a threat of some strong to locally severe storms
later in the afternoon into this evening, particular over the
northern tier of the CWA where the instability will be maximized
with forecast surface- based CAPE values exceeding 3000 j kg
and li's around
-6 to -7. Latest high-resolution models indicate the severe
threat will be short- lived with convection weakening over our
northern CWA this evening. SPC has lowered our area to the
"marginal threat" of severe today and tonight. High temperatures
today will rise to the mid to upper 80s over most locations
with a few lower 90s in the normally warmer inland counties.

Short term Saturday through 6 am Saturday
As of 250 am Friday... While instability wanes a bit
tonight... Strong mid-level shortwave and frontal forcing will
lead to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms tonight.

Some heavy downpours will be likely, but threat of severe
weather diminishes after midnight. Will continue previous
forecast of likely pops area-wide. With cloud-cover and
precipitation, expect uniform low temperatures in the mid 70s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 330 am Friday... An area of low pressure will slowly move
off the va coast with the trailing cold front pushing across
eastern nc through the day Saturday. The front will stall
offshore with several areas of low pressure lifting NE along it
into early next week while high pressure builds in from the
northwest through the middle of next week.

Saturday through Tuesday... An upper low is progged to be
positioned over the mid-atlantic states with sfc low pressure
over va early Saturday. The low will slowly push off the va
coast with the trailing cold front pushing across the region
through the day Saturday. Moist SW flow with sufficient
instability and shear remains ahead of the front to bring a
threat of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across
the area, especially eastern sections where greater diurnal
heating will occur before fropa.

Confidence in the forecast remains low Sunday through Tuesday
as models are struggling to grasp the evolution of the strong
upper trough cut-off low as it moves across the mid-atlantic
states and off the coast. More progressive guidance opens the
low into a sharp trough that pushes across eastern nc Sunday and
quickly lifting the sfc low away from the area while less
progressive guidance keeps the upper low over eastern va nc
through Monday before lifting out Tuesday with several areas of
sfc low pressure lifting along the stalled front offshore
Sunday through Tuesday. The former solution brings a few
showers with strong N to NE winds along the coast Sunday but
otherwise has dry conditions and light winds through Tuesday.

The latter solution bring greater coverage of showers Sunday
with a few showers possibly lingering along the coast Monday
into Tuesday with moderate to strong NE flow across the region
persisting into Tuesday. High Saturday expected to be in the mid
80s. Latest guidance brings much below normal temps for Sunday
with highs in the upper 70s to around 80, then a gradual warming
back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows expected in the 60s
inland to lower 70s coast.

Wednesday and Thursday... High pressure will be the dominant
feature for Wednesday with dry conditions expected. A robust
shortwave digs across the midwest Thursday with increasing
southern stream flow across the southeast which may produce a
few showers across the area late Thursday, however there remains
some timing differences among the models. Temps expected to be
near normal in the upper 80s to around 90 inland to mid 80s
coast.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 12z Saturday ...

as of 655 am Friday... Widespread mid and high debris cloudiness
has kept most fog stratus at bay overnight, although koaj did
report a short period of MVFR fog and stratus. Conditions should
remain in theVFR range through today, even with scattered
showers tstms during the late afternoon hours causing briefly
lower ceilings and vsbys, especially at kpgv. Deeper moisture
associated with cold front will lead to periods of ifr ceilings
after 06z tonight which is also depicted in the latest numerical
guidance.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 330 am Friday... A cold front will cross rtes Saturday with
periods of sub-vfr conditions expected in showers thunderstorms.

PredVFR conditions expected Saturday night through Tuesday but
cannot rule out a few showers across rtes, especially coastal
sections, which may bring brief periods of sub-vfr conditions.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 10 am Friday... Minor adjustment to winds based on current
conditions over the northern waters and pamlico sound. Wind
gradient is tightening a will quicker than forecasted as the
cold front is approaching the area and offshore high pressure.

S SW winds at 15-20 knots will continue over the waters today
and tonight. Per latest wave models, area of enhanced waves
moves up the coast by tonight and current timing to small craft
advisories, beginning near or just after 00z tonight looks good
with no changes required. Seas will build to as high as 6-7 feet
later tonight with 15-25 knot winds.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 330 am Friday... Poor boating conditions expected this
weekend as an area of low pressure moves off the va coast and
trailing cold front pushes through the waters Saturday. Strong
sw winds around 15-25 kt with higher gusts continues Saturday
ahead of the cold front, then becomes NW around 15-20 kt behind
the front and shifts to N 15-25 kt by Sunday. Seas around 5-8
ft south of oregon inlet and 3-5 ft north Saturday subside a bit
Saturday night but build back to 5-9 ft north of ocracoke inlet
and 3-6 ft south by Sunday. Confidence remains low with how
quickly conditions improve Monday into Tuesday as there is a
large spread among the models with the placement of the front
offshore. Stronger guidance keeps the front stalled closer the
the coast with several areas of low pressure lifting NE along it
keeping NE winds around 15-25 kt and seas up to 4-7 ft across
the waters into Tuesday while weaker guidance pushes the front
well offshore with conditions dropping below SCA Monday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Sunday
for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt Sunday
for amz156-158.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to noon edt
Tuesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 5 am edt Sunday
for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Ctc bm
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Ctc sk bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41062 20 mi54 min S 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 78°F1012.4 hPa (+0.0)
44095 27 mi66 min 77°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 38 mi54 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 79°F1011.7 hPa (+0.0)
41025 - Diamond Shoals 43 mi64 min W 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 83°F3 ft1012.1 hPa (+0.0)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 46 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 8.9 82°F 80°F1011.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC41 mi63 minSSW 810.00 miFair83°F77°F82%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S5S6SW7SW9SW6SW8S9S8S10S11
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1 day agoNE6NE8E9
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NE8E8E7E6NE5E5NE5NE5NE4NE4NE4NE3E4E3NE3CalmS3SE3S3S5
2 days agoNW4NE9E7NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Rodanthe, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Rodanthe
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.910.90.80.60.40.20.20.10.20.30.50.70.80.90.80.60.50.30.20.20.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:08 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.12.721.20.4-0.1-0.3-00.51.222.52.72.62.21.50.90.40.20.40.81.42.12.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.