Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chocowinity, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:58PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:06 AM EST (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:40AMMoonset 10:43PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 918 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Overnight..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Rain with a chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chocowinity, NC
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location: 35.51, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 130519
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1219 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to build over the region tonight.

Another strong storm system will affect the area Friday into the
weekend. High pressure will gradually build in from the west
early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 10 pm Wednesday... Latest satellite imagery shows the high
cloudiness starting to thin a bit. Center of high pressure ridge
has moved into southeast georgia and extends along the carolina
coast. The high cloud cover should hold most low temperatures
in the low mid 30s with upper 30s to around 40 outer banks. No
major changes needed to the current forecast.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
As of 230 pm wed... High pressure over the area will gradually
shift off the coast thu, as next system strengthens over tx and
approaches from the west. Weak boundary associated with this
system may push into the area during the afternoon. Scattered
to broken high clouds and low level thickness values support
temps a few degrees warmer than previous days, with highs 55-60
degrees. Could see a non-diurnal temp curve Thursday night, with
increasing clouds and WAA ahead of approaching system.

Overnight lows in the upper 30s low 40s inland and mid upper 40s
along the coast. Slight chance of showers late across the sw
portions of the cwa, but expect precip to hold off until after
12z.

Long term tonight through Wednesday
As of 200 pm wed... Heavy rain is expected for the first half of
the weekend, and showers could linger through most of Sunday.

Another storm system may form off the coast early next week,
which would bring another round of wet weather to the area. High
pressure will build in from the thereafter.

Friday night and Saturday... Deep upper trough with a cut off low
will reach the deep south Friday night, with a warm front
stretching east and north of the area at this time. Large
moisture feed from the caribbean will pump temperatures and
dewpoints into the 60s, as surface cyclogenesis over the area
enhances lift. This will be a recipe for heavy rain over the
area, with storm total rainfall now a little bit over 4 inches
for the southern coast, and 2-4 for the rest of eastern nc.

Still have likely to categorical pops from Friday night through
most of Saturday, tapering off to chance pops into Saturday
night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible
given the strong dynamic environment and MUCAPE values 500-800
j kg. High temps will be quite warm with mid to upper 60s
expected Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday... There remains some model differences
for Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF has been consistent over the
past few runs showing surface cyclogenesis off the nc coast
Sunday into Monday as a strong upper level low moves overhead.

This would keep rain showers around both Sunday and Monday. The
gfs is more progressive with the upper trough and shows dry
weather for both days. Will keep chance pops for this time
period to hedge in between both model solutions. At any rate,
Tuesday looks drier with high pressure moving in from the west.

Temperatures will close to normal with highs in the 50s and lows
in the 30s and 40s.

Aviation 05z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1215 am thu...VFR will cont to dominate. Band of high
clouds conts over the region. Appears NRN tier may clr for a
period and could see some patchy fog develop where it does clr
so will add a tempo period of MVFR vsbys at pgv. High clouds
will spread back N today and cont tonight. As moisture begins to
increase ahead of next system late tonight CIGS will start to
lower S and W but expected to remain inVFR range.

Long term Fri through Monday ...

as of 230 pm wed... Gradually deteriorating Friday and Friday
night as a slow moving very wet system moves through. Could see
vfr return Sat through mon.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 10 pm Wednesday... Winds have become mostly SE at 5 knots
or less at late evening. Made just a minor change to show this
trend, otherwise, marine forecast is in good shape. Seas will
generally be 3-4 feet overnight, subsiding to 2-3 feet for
Thursday as winds remain light.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 230 pm wed... A strong storm system will be passing
through the southeast producing an extended period of hazardous
winds seas beginning Friday and continuing through Sunday.

Friday into Saturday the flow will veer from southeast to
southwest, eventually becoming northwest Sunday. Seas will
build, peaking Friday night into Saturday as high as 9-12 feet
in the central waters from oregon inlet to ocracoke. Strongest
winds will peak Friday into Friday night at 20-30 knots, with a
few gusts to gale force possible in the central waters. Winds
will slowly diminish Saturday into Sunday as low pressure moves
off to the northeast, but seas take longer to subside from south
to north, remaining elevated into early next week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Cqd
long term... Hsa sgk
aviation... Rf cqd
marine... Ctc cqd hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 59 mi37 min NNW 5.1 G 7 1024.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 68 mi127 min NNW 7 G 7 1023.7 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC4 mi87 minN 010.00 miFair33°F32°F97%1024.7 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC19 mi77 minN 07.00 miFair32°F32°F100%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4E5NE4S3S5SE4CalmE3SE3SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW6NW8NW6NW7NW7NW6NW9NW11
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N6NW6NW7NW7NW7NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW4SW5
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:20 AM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:33 PM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:21 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.71.51.20.80.50.30.30.50.91.31.71.921.81.51.10.70.40.30.30.50.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:04 AM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:17 PM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.52.11.61.10.70.50.50.91.52.22.72.92.92.621.50.90.50.40.50.91.52.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.