Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 9:48 AM   Moonset 12:03 AM

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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1031 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night - .
Overnight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of showers late. Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds around 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1031 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in late Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 132358 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 758 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in late Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 740 PM Monday...No major changes with the forecast.

Previous Discussion
As of 3 PM Mon
Upper trough will continue to shift east as a wave of low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast overnight. Broad serly flow will develop over the Carolinas overnight and dew points will steadily climb into the 60s through the early morning hours. This, combined with steadily increasing cloud cover, will contribute to considerably warmer overnight lows as temperatures struggle to fall below the low 60s. A few stray pre- dawn showers are possible across the coastal plain with increasing isentropic lift, but more robust rainfall will hold off until after daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As of 740 PM Monday...Trimmed back Schc PoPs a tad for Tuesday afternoon/evening with a lack of instability expected due to poor lapse rates. Otherwise no major changes with this forecast update.

Previous Discussion
As of 3 PM Mon
Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley during the day, while deep srly flow inc throughout the day. Precip chances steadily inc from w to e as broad area of isentropic ascent moves through. Showers will be sct to numerous on Tue, with 60-80% pops cont, highest in the afternoon hours. Trended back on thunder mention to wrn areas and later in the pd, as instability will be quite meager. Thunder will be elevated in nature anyhow, so no severe threat is expected. QPF amts should by around a half inch with locally higher amts by later in the day. Warm and humid with highs in the 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 415 AM Monday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75".
Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms cont into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal. However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear. SPC has a marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storms across the coastal plain on Wednesday.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period with coastal sections potentially approaching 2". Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s on Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and will keep slight chance PoPs attm. Ridging crests over the area Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the weekend. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 8 PM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across ENC through much of tonight with cirrus deck over us. Cigs will gradually lower but should remain VFR up until daybreak when deeper moisture and inc showers from the w. More steady showers by later morning through the afternoon, with potential for IFR cigs Tuesday afternoon onwards through the end of the TAF period.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub- VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another frontal system will approach the area bringing increasing clouds with sub-VFR possible Friday night.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Mon...As a low makes its approach towards the Carolinas, pressure gradient will tighten with winds reaching 15-20 kt by daybreak on Tuesday. Seas remain at around 2-4 feet through tonight, then building to 4-6 ft Tue morning primarily across the srn waters. Winds and seas build north through the day, and reach SCA for the Pamlico sound as well as Neuse/Pamlico Rivers and ctrl waters later in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday. We may see a brief period of Gale Force winds across portions of the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will build Tuesday and peak around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will gradually subside Wednesday. A cold front will push across the waters Wednesday night with winds becoming Nly around 10-15 kt and seas around 3 to 5 ft through Thursday. High pressure build into the area Thursday night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday with winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt late in the day ahead of the next frontal system.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:09 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:49 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
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Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina, Tide feet

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