Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Washington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:03PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:18 PM EST (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 11:58PM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 1239 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
This afternoon..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy late. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough.
Fri..W winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington, NC
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location: 35.56, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 152045
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
345 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure moving along the east coast will swing a
cold front across the area this evening. High pressure will
ridge into the region Friday through the weekend. A weak front
will cross the area Sunday night. High pressure will build over
the area early through mid next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 335 pm Thursday... Surface analysis this afternoon
continues to show a strong high centered over new england
ridging south down the east coast while low pressure slowly
strengthens just south of washington, nc. The low is forecast to
move north of the area by early this evening and swing a strong
cold front across the region by mid evening. Prospects for
heavy rain and severe weather about over with just some shower
activity expected ahead of the front. Expecting most of the
shower activity to end by 7 pm. Much colder and drier air will
surge into the area behind the front as strong westerly flow
develops behind the front tonight. Although affects from the low
are waning, a few impacts are still expected: 1) minor
soundside flooding over the outer banks tonight into possibly
early Friday 2) low water on the western portions of the pamlico
and neuse rivers late tonight into early Friday. Have cancelled
the wind advisory, and the remainder of the flash flood
watches.

Showers are expected ahead of the cold front through about 7
pm, then much cooler and drier air moves into the following the
passage of a strong cold front by mid evening. Some gusty winds
will continue behind the front along the coast but should
remain below advisory levels. Temperatures will fall rapidly
behind the front with lows in the mid to upper 30s inland and
mid to upper 40s coast.

Short term Friday
As of 335 pm Thursday... High pressure builds over the area from
the north with clear skies and cool temperatures. Highs will
range from the low to mid 50s inland to mid to upper 50s coast.

Gusty coastal winds in the morning will diminish in the
afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm thu... Drier high pressure will build in late week
through this weekend, and then a week coastal trough develops by
Monday and could bring some rain showers to the coast. High
pressure will then build in again through midweek. Temps will
generally be near climo.

Friday night through Sunday... High pressure will build in from
the west through late Friday, and continue to ridge into
eastern nc this weekend. A modest warming trend will be present
this weekend, with highs near climo reaching into the 60-65
range across eastern nc. Low temps will dip to the mid 30s
interior, and low to mid 40s near the beaches (except obx which
will remain in upper 40s).

Sunday night through Monday... A weak coastal trough will
develop and remain near the coast Sunday night into Monday, and
will bring the threat for showers to mainly coastal areas. Have
the best chances of rain after midnight Sunday through Monday
morning, and then taper off pops from west to east later in the
day.

Tuesday through Wednesday... High pressure will build back into
the area from the north, with dry conditions expected. High
temperatures will dip down to a bit below climo, with readings
in the mid upr 50s, and lows in the 30s interior to 40s coast.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through 18z Friday ...

as of 102 pm Thursday... Widespread ifr conditions prevail
across our area this afternoon with periods of MVFR with some
breaks in the clouds. Rain generally coming to an end at all
sites although a few lingering showers in the next couple of
hours cannot be ruled out. Latest hi-res guidance suggesting
these breaks continue for the next couple of hours as low lifts
north before a more uniform ifr cloud deck pushes in again late
this afternoon. Lower ceilings quickly give way toVFR skies
overnight with the advection of much drier air into the region.

Winds will quickly shift with passage of the low to mainly
westerly at around 10 knots with higher gusts by late afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm thurs...VFR conditions are expected through the
long term as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine
Short term tonight and Friday ...

as of 335 pm Thursday... Winds have briefly diminished late this
afternoon as the warm front moves north of the waters. Expect
winds to increase again by mid evening as westerly flow develops
behind a cold front moving through the waters. Southerly flow
ahead of the front will be mostly be 15-25 kt for the remainder
of the day except for the central waters where winds will be
25-35 kt. Then behind the front, winds become westerly and
increase to 20-30 kt with frequent gusts to 35 kt over the
central waters through tonight. Seas 10-14 ft late today will
subside to 6-9 ft overnight as flow becomes offshore. Thus will
extend gales central waters tonight. Will indicate some gusts to
35 kt over the sounds and extreme northern and southern waters
but think this will occur for less than 6 hours so will instead
post sca's for the remainder of the waters tonight into early
sat.

Winds will diminish to 10-20 kt Friday afternoon as high
pressure builds over the waters though seas will be elevated aoa
6 ft until late in the day.

Have issued low water advisories for the western portion of the
neuse and pamlico rivers as water levels likely drop to 1-2 ft
below normal in the strong westerly flow.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm thurs... Winds will become the N NE 5-15 kts
Saturday and Sunday, and then a coastal trough develops Monday,
and causes winds to turn to the NW at 10-15 kts behind it.

Seas will then become mostly 2-4 ft in the long range.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 335 pm thu... Easterly flow has become southerly and
diminished, thus have cancelled the coastal flood advisory for
the western pamlico sound. Late this evening into early sat
strong westerly flow will develop behind a cold front. With
gusts to low end gale expected overnight water levels could
reach to 2 ft above normal along the outer banks so have issued
a coastal flood advisory for these minor water increases.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for ncz095-103-104.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
Friday for ncz103-104.

Marine... Low water advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est Friday
for amz136-137.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for amz130-131-
135>137.

Gale warning until 7 am est Friday for amz152-154-156.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Saturday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Friday for amz158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Tl sgk
aviation... Tl ms
marine... Jme tl
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 61 mi31 min WSW 8.9 G 14 69°F 62°F1007.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 70 mi79 min S 18 G 19 1007.4 hPa (-3.7)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 74 mi31 min S 13 G 17 72°F 62°F1006.9 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC1 mi39 minWSW 83.00 miRain66°F65°F96%1006.8 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC20 mi29 minWNW 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast59°F59°F100%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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CalmW8
1 day agoNW8NW5N7N3N5N7N8N6N8NE4N4N6N5N5N6N5N6N7N8
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2 days agoE6NE7E7E7N3E6E5E4SE7SE8SE8SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 01:51 AM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:07 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.81.81.71.51.20.90.70.60.70.91.31.61.9221.81.51.10.80.60.50.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:50 AM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:51 PM EST     3.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.72.72.52.11.71.310.91.11.52.12.62.932.92.52.11.51.10.80.811.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.