Friday, July20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Washington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:23PM Friday July 20, 2018 4:58 AM EDT (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 12:02AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 449 Am Edt Fri Jul 20 2018
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then showers likely with scattered tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington, NC
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location: 35.56, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 200832
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
432 am edt Fri jul 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure to the northeast will move east today. Low
pressure developing along a warm front will approach from the
south today and move across the area tonight and Saturday. A
warm and moist southerly flow between low pressure to the west
and high pressure over the atlantic will produce unsettled
weather from late this weekend through much of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 350 am Friday... Fair weather early this morning will give
way to increasing clouds and showers scattered tstms developing
across area from south to north during the day. Upper low moving
into great lakes will kick shortwave over ga to NE along with
developing surface low along warm front. Veering winds and warm
advection will result in pw values increasing from 1-1.5 inches
this morning to 2-2.3 inches this afternoon, and could lead to
repeating heavy downpours producing locally 1 to 2 inch rainfall
amounts with main threat along coast south of CAPE hatteras.

Adjusted pops to indicate likely over southern sections late
morning into early afternoon with likely pops for most of area
rest of afternoon. Increasing clouds and precip expected to keep
max temps in low to mid 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
As of 400 am Friday... Models have generally trended a bit more
inland with surface low track which would result in more of a
severe weather threat. GFS appears a bit too far inland and nam
too slow, thus leaned to blend of previous forecast and ecmwf
with track closer to coast. This will result in more of a heavy
rain threat mainly east of hwy 17 but still some concern for
severe threat along coast with low moving up along warm front
and shear increasing late which could result in some rotating
cells off the water. Adjusted QPF to indicate widespread 1 inch
amounts eastern half of area. Repeating cells off water could
result in localized 2-3 inch amounts along coast. Min temps
mainly 70-75.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 305 am Friday... An area of low pressure will move northeast
along the carolina coast Saturday. A warm and moist southerly flow
will develop thereafter due to low pressure to the west and high
pressure over the western atlantic ocean, leading to unsettled
weather conditions from Sunday through much of next week.

Saturday... Low pressure will move slowly northeast across coastal
eastern nc Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the area with this system with heavy rain being
the main threat as pwats build above 2". Expect a sharp precip
gradient largely dependent upon track of the low through the area,
with highest amounts along the coast east of hwy 17. Storm total
rainfall could exceed 2" in locations by the evening. If the low
lifts northeast faster, similar to the GFS wrf-arw guidance, there
could be a window for clearing and thus modest destabilization
that could support severe thunderstorms. While the SPC has our
area in a "marginal" severe weather risk, shear remains the
limiting factor for severe storms Saturday afternoon. MAX temps
will remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday through Thursday... The surface low mentioned above will
lift northeast of the area Saturday evening, with deep, warm,
and moist southerly flow developing in its wake through much of
the upcoming week between low pressure to the west and broad
western atlantic high pressure. The upper pattern this period
becomes favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms, most
widespread during peak heating with a persistent mid level
trough over the eastern us. Guidance indicates the potential for
2 to 4 inches of rainfall through mid week. Will continue to
highlight severe flood potential in hwo.

Temperatures Sunday through Thursday will be close to
climatological normals, ranging from highs near 90 inland to mid
80s for the coast. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid
70s.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 06z Saturday ...

as of 200 am Friday...VFR expected to prevail into morning, then
deteriorating conditions during the day Friday into Friday
night with widespread showers scattered tstms spreading over
area from south. High pressure to n-ne will gradually move east
today allowing frontal boundary to south to lift north as a warm
front with developing low pressure moving up along the boundary
late today into this evening. Scattered showers isolated tstms
expected to develop over southern sections this morning and
spread north, with widespread activity this afternoon into
evening leading to mainly MVFR CIGS and vsbys.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 315 am Friday... Periodic sub-vfr conditions are expected
through Wednesday as an unsettled pattern develops across
eastern nc. A surface low will move through the area late
tonight through Saturday with southerly flow developing in its
wake that will last through next week.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 400 am Friday... Per short term discussion, leaned to blend
of previous forecast and 00z ECMWF for surface low track along
coast tonight. High pressure moving east and front approaching
from south will produce veering winds E to SE around 15 kt today
and then stronger southerly winds overnight with low near cape
lookout by Sat morning. SCA winds and seas expected to develop
southern and central waters overnight and northern waters sat
morning. If low track further inland, SCA would likely be
needed for sounds as well.

Followed nwps for seas with heights remaining 3-4 ft today, then
building to 4-6 ft tonight.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 am Friday... Low end SCA conditions are expected over the
waters for much of the period. Moderate se-s flow associated with
surface low pressure moving slowly across the waters Saturday with
seas building to 4 to 7 ft over the southern and central waters.

Then Sunday through Wednesday, moderate S SW winds 10-20 kt develop
in the low's wake, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer
fringes of the coastal waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Saturday to 2 am edt Sunday for
amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Saturday to 2 am edt Sunday for
amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 11 am to 11 pm edt Saturday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Dag
aviation... Dag jbm
marine... Dag jbm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 61 mi40 min E 8 G 9.9
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 70 mi58 min E 14 G 16 1016.9 hPa (-0.9)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 74 mi40 min E 8 G 13 79°F 82°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N4
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SW3
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC1 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair67°F65°F96%1018.3 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC20 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3NE5NE5N5NE7E8E6NE5E6SE5SE6E9E5E3E4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N6N7N6N6N4N7NW6N7N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS4SW5SW5SW6SW6SW7SW11SW10
G14
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G17
CalmS4S7S7
G16
S7SW4CalmCalmSW3SW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:30 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:55 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:10 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.21.71.91.91.71.30.90.50.20.10.20.61.11.72.12.22.21.91.510.60.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:38 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:54 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.322.62.92.82.41.81.10.50.20.10.51.11.92.73.23.33.12.721.30.70.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.