Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 1:30 AM   Moonset 11:38 AM

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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 935 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Overnight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and scattered tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Numerous showers with a chance of tstms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Fri - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 935 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A weak surface trough will move through the area on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 010139 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 939 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough will move through the area tomorrow. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 2140 Tuesday...ISO showers that popped up near the HWY17 corridor as the seabreeze passed has stopped. No more shower initiation is expected through the first half of the night and any precip will be from upstream convection that pushes into the FA. Aside from subtle Td (and therefore RH and AppT grids)
changes, the forecast remains largely unchanged.

Previous Disco as of 350 PM Tue...Upper ridge is beginning to move offshore this afternoon as a well-defined shortwave over eastern TN continues to dig towards the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored south of Bermuda extending inland, although a weak surface trough associated with the aforementioned mid-level wave will gradually encroach into the area through tomorrow.

Hi-res guidance this morning has depicted a slightly more southern track of the shortwave overnight, with the strongest attendant lift now across SC and far southeastern NC.
Consequently, CAMs now show the bulk of the heavier precipitation overnight passing to our south as well and trimmed back areal coverage of PoPs accordingly. A few more isolated showers are still possible farther inland. Maintained a mention of thunder primarily along the coast where instability will remain highest (up to 500 J/kg). Given a lack of shear (0-6 km under 15 kt), no severe threat is anticipated. Very mild lows tonight owing increasing cloud cover and light and steady southwesterly winds, favoring temperatures in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
As of 405 PM Tue...Shortwave/low will be overhead and moving offshore tomorrow morning while surface trough to our west continues to migrate towards the area. CAMs depict a busy weather day as convergence with the approaching trough and diurnal sea breeze aid in convective development early tomorrow afternoon. Airmass will be sufficiently unstable to support scattered thunderstorm development (HRRR average surface CAPES reach up to 1000 J/kg, with most aggressive members at 1500 J/kg). The severe threat is low but non-zero, as shear will initially be weak in the afternoon but begin to increase late as northwesterly mid-level winds increase on the backside of the upper trough. If a strong storm were to develop, strong wind gusts would be the primary threat.

Given a northeasterly mean storm motion, convection is likely to remain pinned closer to the coast and migrate little inland, although resultant outflow boundaries will likely spark additional cells. Some locally heavy rainfall is likely, but given how dry the past month has been flooding concerns are minimal. Concentrated the highest PoPs along the Highway 17 corridor. Activity will quickly begin to die off with loss of heating.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Inland highs in the low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then an unsettled weekend and start to the new week

FORECAST DETAILS

We return to warm, dry weather on Thursday and Friday with a ridge building over the southeast US. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the coastal plain and low 70s at the beaches.

Unsettled weather returns this weekend with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will be gradually washed out as a surface low forms due to a shortwave trough moving across the southeast. At the same time, a cold front associated with a deep low over south-central Canada will move into our area and stall. PoPs increase west to east on Saturday with shower and thunderstorm activity possible through Monday (15-30% chance).

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 1900 Tuesday...Carrying a VFR TAF through the period but conditions will deteriorate Wednesday with subVFR possible. VFR flight cats prevail across terminals today as high pressure remains off the southeastern coast and broad diurnal cu field continues to build inland. Some scattered showers have popped up as moist SWerly flow skips over the seabreeze as it presses inland this evening. Have added VCSH for OAJ for the next few hours. Gusty southwesterly winds will turn southerly late tonight as sea breeze advances northward. Precipitation forecast has changed a bit since last night. Guidance has become more bearish on precip coverage overnight as weak trough of low pressure approaches from the west. OAJ and to a lesser extent EWN would be most at risk of seeing overnight shower activity, as well as an isolated thunderstorm, primarily after 06z.

Isolated to scattered coastal activity will be ongoing after sunrise on Wednesday, but main focus will turn to the end of the TAF period as sea breeze converges with trough and brings scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Bulk of activity is expected around and after 18z. Have added VCSH for all terminals in the afternoon and VCTS for coastal terminals for later in the afternoon. Larger scale conditions show VFR holding out but subVFR CIGs and/or VIS will be possible under stronger showers/tstorms, hence the secondary SCT FL030 mention. Potential for fog development overnight WED after rain has ceased and winds calm which could lead to further flight restrictions after the end of this TAF period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the period but a few instances of unsettled weather are expected. An approaching disturbance will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday (30-60%). By Saturday, a cold front will be moving into the area and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms (15-30%). Lowered CIGs and VIS are expected during these times.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 410 PM Tues...Pleasant boating conditions continue today as high pressure remains in control, although surface trough west of the Appalachians will gradually make its way eastward through tomorrow. Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with periods continuing to increase to 12-13 seconds.
Southwesterly winds hover around 10-15 kt.

Much of the same pattern is expected tonight as the past two, with winds gradually increasing into the early evening hours associated with the tightening thermal gradient. A few spotty gusts to 25 kt are possible primarily across the northern waters tonight into the overnight hours, but not enough to warrant headlines. Trough will move into area waters tomorrow with ambient winds gradually easing through the day, but threat of showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in the early to mid-afternoon, especially for the inland rivers and sounds. Seas remain under 5 feet through the period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms

FORECAST DETAILS

Although marine conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria, opportunities for showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and this weekend. Winds will be variable through the period due to several systems moving through but will remain around 5-10 kt with 2-4 ft seas.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:50 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:25 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Newport River
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:34 AM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:09 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newport River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,