Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 1:13 PM

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FXUS64 KOUN 021111 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 611 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The line of thunderstorms continues to weaken in the vicinity of the I- 35 corridor early this morning, with wind gusts and rainfall rates coming down over the last hour. While we can't rule out a few additional strong wind gusts, we expect this downward trend in intensity to continue as the line pushes eastward into an increasingly stable environment. To the north of the line, a wake low has led to wind gusts of 40-50 mph near the I-40 corridor, where a Wind Advisory continues through 12z, but even here wind gusts have been trending downward and the advisory may need to be cancelled early.

In the wake of this area of storms, expect some recovery of the airmass by this afternoon ahead of a cold front which will push southeastward this afternoon into central Oklahoma, though clouds may limit this recovery to some degree across central Oklahoma.
Weak to moderate instability and bulk shear values of 30-35 knots should support at least some marginally severe hail with the stronger storms that develop along the front in central Oklahoma.
Further south and west, airmass recovery is expected to be greater by this afternoon ahead of the dryline, which could support a more substantial hail and wind threat during the afternoon and evening with any storms that develop, with a low tornado risk as well.

Ware

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Conditions appear to be more stable behind the front during the day on Friday, so we will likely see a relative minimum in precipitation chances before moisture begins to return northward and a second cold front begins to move into northern Oklahoma Friday night. Models have been somewhat inconsistent on the location and magnitude of a potential convective complex across northern Oklahoma Friday night into Saturday morning, but this appears to be at least a possibility with a strengthening low level jet and moisture return overnight.

Additional storm chances appear are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning across a broader portion of the area as the low level jet strengthen atop the residual frontal zone.

By Monday a more substantial trough is forecast to eject into the high Plains, with most of the model solutions now tracking the best forcing and height falls to our north and west, leaving a cap in place across much of our area. Strong instability and shear will be in place over our area Monday so if storms are able to develop they would likely become severe, but as of now the threat appears highly conditional with the greatest chances across northern OK closer to the ejecting shortwave. We may finally see a break in storm chances by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as shortwave ridging builds into the area and low-level flow veers.

Ware

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east of the area this morning with developing MVFR ceilings at many sites.
A cold front will slide southeast across the area today with a period of showers/thunderstorms and a shift to north/northeast winds. Most sites will keep MVFR ceilings in the wake of the cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 78 61 78 62 / 70 50 20 40 Hobart OK 79 57 78 59 / 50 20 20 50 Wichita Falls TX 82 62 79 62 / 30 50 20 40 Gage OK 76 49 76 53 / 30 10 30 60 Ponca City OK 76 56 77 60 / 90 40 20 60 Durant OK 79 62 82 65 / 70 60 30 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ007-008-011>030.

Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ035>041-044>046- 050.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ084>090.

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