Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cambria, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:54PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:34 AM PST (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 3:53AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 218 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 2 ft at 10 seconds. S swell 2 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 5 ft dominant period 14 seconds. Rain likely.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 ft at 16 seconds, building to 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds after midnight. S swell 3 ft. Showers likely. Slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft.
PZZ600 218 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst, a 1029 mb high was over idaho and a 1013 mb low pressure center was located 300 nm sw of point conception.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cambria, CA
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location: 35.58, -121.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 200953
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
153 am pst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis 19 745 pm.

High clouds will prevail across the region through Tuesday. Rain
is likely Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a chance of
showers going into thanksgiving. Temperatures are expected to be
near normal Tuesday, then a cooling trend through Friday, and a
chance for showers north of point conception Friday night.

Short term (tdy-thu) 19 806 pm.

***update***
an upper low currently centered around 300 miles southwest of
point conception will continue on a trajectory ese toward northern
baja california. Considerable mid to upper level clouds
associated with this system are streaming across the area but no
rain is expected other than an outside chance of a few sprinkles
overnight.

The lax to daggett surface pressure gradient has strengthened this
evening to -3.5 mb, and is forecast to change little overnight
into early Tuesday. This should maintain locally breezy northeast
to east winds across interior sections, including the inland
valleys, foothills, and mountains. The relatively thick cloud
layers will prevent a coherent marine layer from forming, along
with low clouds and fog. However, patchy fog may affect portions
of the l.A. Coast and the central coast late tonight into Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday is expected to be cooler by around 2 to 4 degrees compared
to Monday's highs, with mostly cloudy skies early, clearing to
partly cloudy as the day progresses.

***from previous discussion***
eyes still on the storm system expected to move through southwest
california Wednesday into early Thursday. Models have been
trending a little slower and weaker with this system. A chance of
light rain could begin along the central coast as early as
Wednesday morning, with the majority of rain expected Wednesday
afternoon into evening. For ventura county, there is a chance of
light rain as early as Wednesday afternoon, with the majority of
rainfall Wednesday night. For l.A. County, there is a chance of
light rain Wednesday evening, with a majority of rainfall
overnight into early Thursday morning. This timing would help
minimize impacts on Wednesday afternoon into early evening rush
hour traffic in la county that will also be heavier due to holiday
travelers. Thanksgiving day should be cool and generally cloudy
with scattered leftover showers decreasing through the day.

Rainfall intensities are generally expected to be light to moderate
with this storm, with peak rainfall rates mostly in the 0.20 - 0.33
inch per hour range. However, there is still expected to be a
strong 155-170 knot jet core moving across the forecast area at
some point Wednesday night which could briefly enhance rainfall
rates locally, up to 0.40 inches per hour. Computer models have
trended a bit further northward with the main jet core axis (with
the GFS model furthest north above point conception). If the
strong jet axis were to shift back southward (as indicated in
earlier model runs) could not rule out localized rates up to 0.50
inches per hour. So the probability of reaching 1st year usgs
thresholds (0.50 inches in 60 minutes, 0.30 inches in 30 minutes,
or 0.20 inches in 15 minutes) is fairly low for the woolsey, hill,
stone, and south burn areas. Rainfall rates reaching the 2nd year
thresholds (0.80 inches per hour) for the thomas, whittier,
creek, and la tuna burn areas is minimal, but not zero. With the
expected rainfall rates, any debris flow activity would likely be
minor. The bigger threat with this storm will be mudslides and
rockslides across the woolsey and hill burn areas, especially
along highway 1 from point mugu to malibu, and all canyon roads in
the burn areas.

Storm total rainfall estimates range from 0.20 to 0.70 inches across
much of the forecast area, except 0.70 to 1.25 inches across
south and southwest facing coastal slopes and foothills (except
isolated amounts up to 2 inches in the foothills of northwest slo
county), where there will be some orographic enhancement of
rainfall totals. Computer models are trending higher amounts from
ventura county northward. Snow levels will start out around 6500
ft on Wed and rise to just over 8000 ft in southerly flow ahead
of the front, then fall again on Thursday into the 6000's. Thus,
any snow accumulation with this system will be fairly high up.

The details and specifics with this system will become clearer
over the next 12 hours or so, especially once we have access to
model forecast 1 hr precipitation for the Wed night time frame and
of course a better picture of potential 1 hour rainfall rates.

Long term (fri-mon) 19 210 pm.

Northwest flow pattern will set up across the region Thu night
and fri, and heights will be on the rise. The tail end of the
frontal system may bring a few showers to slo county fri, possibly
spreading into sba county Fri night, but if any rain falls, it
looks as though it will be light. Elsewhere, expect partly cloudy
skies of Fri and there should be a couple of degrees of warming in
most areas.

Some ridging is forecast to build into the region over the
weekend, so expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temps
should be above normal in most areas, especially on Sunday.

Weak to moderate offshore flow is likely to occur Sunday into
Monday.

Aviation 20 0003z.

At 2300z at klax... The inversion was around 800 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 1200 feet with a temperature of 19
degrees celsius.

Generally high confidence in 00z tafs, withVFR conditions
expected across the area, except for a 60% chance of MVFR
cigs vsby forming at ksmx and klgb. MVFR vsby could occur
periodically at coast and valley sites through the period.

Klax... Moderate to high confidence in the 00z taf.VFR conditions
expected thru Tue afternoon except for periodic MVFR vsby due to
fog or haze tonight into Tue morning. There is also a 20% chance
of MVFR CIGS forming late tonight into Tue morning.

Kbur... High confidence in the 00z TAF withVFR conditions
expected through Tuesday. MVFR vsby could occur periodically,
especially during the late night to morning hours.

Marine 20 152 am.

For the outer waters... Moderate to high confidence in the current
forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory (sca) levels through tonight, then a cold front will
approach the northern waters Wednesday morning with increasing
southerly winds ahead of the front. There will be a short period
Wednesday afternoon that a (sca) might be needed. Higher chance in
pzz670 with a 40% chance for pzz673. Winds will shift to the west
to northwest after midnight Wednesday night into Thursday.

There is a 60% chance of (sca)level winds Thursday night through
Friday and higher chances across the entire outer waters by
Saturday.

For the inner waters north of point conception... Moderate
confidence that conditions will remain below SCA levels through
Saturday. Wednesday, south winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots
with a 30% chance of increasing to SCA levels.

For the inner waters south of point conception... Moderate to high
confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas are expected
to remain below SCA levels through Wed night, except for a
20%-30% chance of SCA level wind gusts Wed afternoon for the e
santa barbara channel zone (pzz650). There is a 40%-50% chance of
sca level wind gusts at times Thu afternoon through sat.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Gomberg jackson smith
aviation... Smith
marine... Kaplan smith
synopsis... Delerme
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 29 mi38 min 63°F3 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 34 mi35 min N 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 63°F1016.5 hPa (-0.6)
CPXC1 35 mi25 min N 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1016.5 hPa52°F
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 40 mi45 min 60°F 61°F3 ft1015.2 hPa (-0.9)
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 43 mi45 min E 1.9 G 3.9 61°F 63°F3 ft1015.9 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Paso Robles Municipal Airport, CA27 mi42 minN 05.00 miFair with Haze36°F27°F70%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from PRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6S4S3E4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3S5SW8S7S5CalmSE53E4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW11SW12SW8SW9S5SE6SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3W3

Tide / Current Tables for San Simeon, California
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San Simeon
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Tue -- 01:33 AM PST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:53 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM PST     5.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:32 PM PST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:54 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:32 PM PST     4.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.21.11.62.53.64.65.35.55.24.33.2210.40.40.91.82.83.64.14.23.73

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California
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Morro Beach
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Tue -- 01:31 AM PST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:52 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM PST     5.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:30 PM PST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:43 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:54 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:32 PM PST     4.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.11.11.62.43.54.55.15.454.23.11.90.90.40.40.91.72.73.5443.62.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.