Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garner, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:33PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:34 AM EDT (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 6:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garner, NC
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location: 35.6, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 270738
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
338 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A warm moist southerly flow will hold over the area through
Wednesday. An upper level trough will cross the region tonight
through Tuesday, bringing unsettled weather. A backdoor cold front
will drop southward through the area late Wednesday through
Wednesday night, followed by cooler high pressure pushing in from
the north on Thursday. Another storm system will cross the area
Thursday night through Friday night.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 330 am Monday...

the western edge of surface high pressure will remain over central
nc today as a few shortwave disturbances track across the area in
between two larger systems, one moving through new england and the
second back across arkansas and southern missouri. These shortwave
disturbances could supply the area with periodic showers and
potentially thunderstorms later in the day as forecast soundings
show tall skinny CAPE resulting in 700-1000 j/kg across the
northwest piedmont where forcing will be best, and lesser amounts to
the south and east. With little CAPE in the hail growth zone,
damaging winds would be the most likely threat from storms but not
expecting storms to be severe at this time. SPC outlook has the area
in general thunder only.

With that in mind attention turns to temperatures which will once
again be warm under southerly return flow as highs expected to soar
into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Without a frontal passage,
lows on Tuesday morning only expected to drop into the upper 50s.

Some gusts are possible up to 15 knots or so this afternoon.

Short term /Tuesday and Tuesday night/
As of 330 am Monday...

Tuesday and Tuesday night low pressure currently over the arklatex
area will track north of the area through the mid-atlantic states
and bring a very weak cool front with it. Maybe a bit better chance
for thunder Tuesday afternoon, especially in the central and eastern
portions of the forecast area as instability look a little better
than on Monday afternoon and low-level lapse rates remain very
steep. The proximity of the low to the north will provide upwards of
25-30 kts of bulk shear to work with. As a result spc, currently has
the forecast area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. While
damaging wind should remain the primary threat, some better cape
values aloft could result in some small hail.

Temperatures will continue to be in the upper 70 to low 80s across
the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon with lows in the mid 50s.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/
As of 205 am Monday...

wed-thu: behind the departing shortwave through, the mid level ridge
axis will shift eastward over the southeast through thu, although by
thu it will be deamplifying as the next mid level low tracks through
the central conus. Nc will remain in the warm sector for much of
wed, as the backdoor front holds to our north until late in the day,
when energy dropping into the polar low SE of the canadian maritimes
helps drive the cool dense surface high pressure area southward into
nc, with the front dropping through nc nne to ssw Wed evening/night
and settling south of the forecast area by Thu morning. Expect
partly to mostly sunny skies Wed with flat cumulus beneath the warm
layer focused around 700 mb. The low levels will cool/stabilize wed
night with increased moisture pooling around 900-800 mb, so expect
cloudy skies, thickest in the west where moist isentropic upglide
will be deepest. While a uniform northeasterly low level flow into
the area will set up behind the front, the 850 mb anticyclone will
shift off the carolina coast, resulting in increasing 850 mb winds
and strengthening moist overrunning atop the cool stable pool thu,
most evident over the NW cwa. Will keep skies mostly cloudy to
cloudy with a chance of light rain or drizzle in the W from late wed
night through thu. Highs Wed from lower 70s NE to around 80 sw. Lows
45-55 ne-sw Wed night as cooler air pushes into the ne. Highs thu
from mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE within a wedge regime.

Thu night through Fri night: a volatile period as another strong mid
level shortwave moves from the central plains through the miss
valley and ohio valley before crossing the mid atlantic region. At
the surface, models depict the primary surface low tracking NE over
or just south of SE mi through fri, while the front to our south
shifts back northward as a warm front, and a triple-point low forms
over SW va. While we would normally be skeptical about the complete
passage of a warm front through nc immediately following a wedge
regime, the parent high is rather weak and progressive and may be
unlikely to put up much of a fight, so will depict a northward surge
of higher dewpoints through much of the forecast area (excluding the
far nw) on fri. The primary low will then track up the st. Lawrence
valley Fri night while filling, as the triple-point low crosses wv
and N va and becomes the primary low near or just off the delmarva
peninsula, with w-to-e cold frontal passage through central nc. In
terms of sensible weather, given the improving mechanisms to force
ascent including mid level dpva, strengthening upper divergence, and
increasing 850 mb moisture transport, expect numerous showers and
thunderstorms starting Thu night, peaking in coverage and intensity
fri, then exiting to our east Fri night as the mid level trough
moves off the coast. A few strong storms are possible fri, although
the dpva will have weakened a bit by the time the trough gets here,
and we're lacking the instability and strong kinematics that might
prompt greater concern. Lows Thu night mid 40s to low 50s, highs fri
62-72, and lows Fri night 49-55.

Sat-sun: weak modified surface high pressure builds in behind the
front with another rough of shortwave ridging in the wake of
Friday's trough and ahead of the next system moving from the four
corners into the S plains. Expect dry weather and partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies. Thicknesses are projected to stay a bit above
normal through the weekend, so expect highs from around 70 to the
mid 70s. -gih

Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/
As of 140 am Monday...

24 hour TAF period: a few bands of light to moderate showers moving
through the triad at this time and this will continue for the next
few hours. Further east, many of the showers will move north of the
area, avoiding the TAF sites. MOS guidance products were hinting at
some fog or low stratus in the south and east near daybreak, but
higher resolution models are not as bullish and therefore have
removed any mention of fog in these areas. For the triad sites plus
krdu have left in some MVFR stratus closer to and just after
daybreak. Have left out any mention of rain for Monday afternoon but
there is a nonzero chance of a few lingering showers or maybe even a
thunderstorm that will re-evaluate with the 12z package. Confidence
was low enough at this time to leave out of the forecast. Winds will
be mainly out of the south at 5-10 kts with some gusting to 15-20
kts possible during the Monday afternoon hours.

Long term: a low pressure system will move through the mid-atlantic
states on Tuesday brining a chance for rain Tuesday evening. A more
potent system will cross the area on Friday through Friday night
with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, some
potential for some fog/low stratus in the triad on Tuesday morning.

Rah watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Ellis
short term... Ellis
long term... Hartfield
aviation... Ellis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC14 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair52°F51°F100%1019.6 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC16 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair60°F55°F84%1020 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC21 mi44 minSW 810.00 miOvercast62°F55°F78%1019.7 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC24 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair55°F52°F91%1020 hPa

Wind History from JNX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S7S7SW4S6S6S8
G14
S7
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S6S5S5S6S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW4SW8
G14
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G17
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S4CalmS5S6S5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S7SW8SW8
G16
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SW9SW7SW7
G16
SW9S3CalmCalmS7S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 03:25 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:53 PM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 11:00 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.31.51.51.310.70.50.2-0-00.30.81.21.41.51.41.20.90.60.30.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Mon -- 12:11 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.91.71.30.90.50.2-0.1-00.51.21.71.921.81.51.10.70.30-0.10.311.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.