Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garner, NC
May 7, 2024 9:40 AM EDT (13:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 4:43 AM Moonset 6:57 PM |
FXUS62 KRAH 071029 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 630 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A series of mid to upper-level disturbances will interact with an unseasonably moist airmass as they move across NC through Thursday, While sub-tropical high pressure will otherwise extend across the South Atlantic states. A cold front will move across the region on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 AM Tuesday...
...There is a Marginal/Level 1 Threat for Isolated Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the area will move off the southern mid-Atlantic coast during the late morning. Accompanying weakening cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms over the western Piedmont will shift eastward through mid morning. Hi-res guidance has struggled in this convective environment. Thus, it's difficult to predict how much further weakening, or not, will occur before the convection exits the area.
Rainfall amounts will be light, generally between one to two tenths in the more organized showers.
In the wake of the exiting trough, synoptic scale subsidence will overspread the area as ridging builds overhead. Additionally, 925- 700mb winds will become increasingly W-NWLY, a favorable downslope regime will should favor substantial clearing and ample sunshine for the afternoon. Temperatures will respond according, with highs warming into the mid 80s north to upper 80s/near 90 south.
Though more isolated/widely scattered in nature, some additional late day showers and storms are possible. PWATS will remain exceptionally high as strong insolation fuels moderate instability across the area. While weak sfc convergence along a lee side trough could spur some pop up storms, hi-res guidance favors a scenario of upstream convection over the higher terrain moving into the NW Piedmont late in the day, potentially related to PV anomaly associated with the southern tail end of the ongoing convection moving in the mid MS Valley. If storms do develop or move into the area, sufficient deep layer shear of 30-35 kts amidst moderate buoyancy of 2000-2500 J/KG and a favorable high DCAPE environment would support a threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly large hail. The severe threat appears greatest over the NW Piedmont, between 4-10 pm.
Any convection should eventually weaken as it drifts east into the central Piedmont through midnight. Mild overnight lows 65-70.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM Tuesday...
...Summer-like Heat Returns...
...Another Marginal/Level 1 Threat for Severe Storms during the afternoon and evening...
Upper ridge centered over the SE US will flatten and shift east and offshore during the day, which should make the Carolinas more susceptible to some upper disturbances moving into the region as a 70-80kt subtropical jet punches in from the SW. At the surface, a lee sfc troughiness will sharpen over western NC.
The first weather headline will be the summer-like heat. Low-level thicknesses of will be comparable to late June than early May and will support afternoon highs ranging from upper 80s across the north to lower 90s over the remainder of the forecast area. When coupled with the humid BL dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices over the central and eastern portions will be in the mid 90s.
The second weather headline will be another marginal/level 1 threat for severe storms. Confidence is below average regarding convective evolution/details Wednesday. However, there appears to be the potential for two round of storms during the forecast period; 1)
during the early afternoon/early evening which could develop along old outflow boundary from the previous night; 2) potentially followed by another round late Wednesday night and into early Thursday morning from upstream convection moving into the area.
The summerlike heat and humidity will result in moderate to strong destabilization with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 forecast across the area.
Strong shear of 30-35kts and another favorable high DCAPE environment will support a primary threat of damaging winds. Large hail is also possible, given the robust/fat CAPE profiles.
Lows Wednesday night could challenge for the warmest on record with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 316 AM Tuesday...
The main impacts in the extended will focus on Thu/Fri with a continued threat of severe weather (mainly Thu) ahead of a strong cold front. Drier conditions and seasonal to below normal temperatures are still favored for the weekend into early next week.
A messy and complex weather pattern is shaping up for the period Thu and Fri. Confidence on specifics is low given the latest trends in the suite of guidance products and overall synoptic pattern. Broadly speaking, while the specifics are not clear cut, troughing over the Midwest to Great Lakes/OH valley Thu is forecast to move east across the Mid-Atlantic Fri aftn/night before exiting sometime Sat off the NE US coast. At the surface, low pressure over the OH valley Thu is forecast to move into the NE US Fri, allowing a cold front to push through sometime Fri night.
What happens Thu may partially depend on what evolves Wed night to early Thu morning. Models, particularly the GFS, indicate impulses of energy tracking across the region on the nose of the left-exit region of a jet streak near upstate SC. This energy, if it verifies, would inherit a favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment for showers/storms overnight Wed night. This activity could lay an outflow boundary to start Thu morning. A secondary uncertainty is upstream convection that will advance into western NC and the Piedmont Thu morning ahead of the cold front over the TN valley.
Both of these uncertainties could have implications on the coverage and intensity of storms Thu aftn/evening due to potential rain- cooled air and convective debris clouds. That said, the environment in the absence of these competing factors still supports a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes with strong low/deep layer shear and high instability/DCAPE. The CSU/CIPS severe analogs continue to indicate a wide swath of severe potential from the SE US into VA. SPC has kept a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) across the region. A lee trough will be in place ahead of the front Thu, favoring a gusty/warm SW flow. Highs could be tricky given the above considerations, but for now have low 80s NW to near 90 SE.
The severe risk should subside overnight into Fri morning as the effective front pushes into SE SC. Meanwhile, the cold front looks to get hung up along the spine of the Appalachians, not moving through until Fri night. Deterministic/ensemble data still shows uncertainty on the strength of a secondary shortwave rounding the base of the main trough, which could bring a secondary shot of showers/storms Fri aftn/eve. The GFS is particularly robust with this feature relative to other solutions, tracking a secondary low along the cold front over eastern NC. We kept showers in the forecast Fri as a result, but retained the thunder chances mainly along/east of US-1 as the main instability axis should be confined along SE NC. Severe weather is not anticipated with this potential wave. Shower activity should end Fri night as the front pushes through.
The rest of the period looks to favor more dry time than rain chances, although precipitation cannot be fully ruled out. It appears ensemble data is still not in agreement on the placement and timing of a series of troughs that could impact the region over the weekend with the NW flow aloft. Rain chances are possible Sat and Sun, but with lack of consensus in the guidance, we kept most of the forecast dry with very low-end shower chances at this stage.
Temperatures should return closer to normal and even slightly below average with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 630 AM Tuesday...
Scattered showers and sprinkle will move east across central and eastern terminals over the next few hours, with little to no restrictions expected. Any sub-VFR ceilings will be short-lived, lifting and scattering out, with gusty swly surface wind by ~14-16Z Tue.
Some additional convection is possible this afternoon and evening, but should be more isolated/widely scattered in nature and potentially limited INVOF KINT and KGSO.
Outlook: There will be a chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers and storms throughout cntl NC through Thu, then ahead of a passing cold front, mainly at FAY, on Fri.
CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 8: KGSO: 66/1938 KRDU: 68/1930 KFAY: 70/2003
May 9: KGSO: 68/2002 KRDU: 70/1936 KFAY: 71/2009
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 630 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A series of mid to upper-level disturbances will interact with an unseasonably moist airmass as they move across NC through Thursday, While sub-tropical high pressure will otherwise extend across the South Atlantic states. A cold front will move across the region on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 AM Tuesday...
...There is a Marginal/Level 1 Threat for Isolated Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the area will move off the southern mid-Atlantic coast during the late morning. Accompanying weakening cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms over the western Piedmont will shift eastward through mid morning. Hi-res guidance has struggled in this convective environment. Thus, it's difficult to predict how much further weakening, or not, will occur before the convection exits the area.
Rainfall amounts will be light, generally between one to two tenths in the more organized showers.
In the wake of the exiting trough, synoptic scale subsidence will overspread the area as ridging builds overhead. Additionally, 925- 700mb winds will become increasingly W-NWLY, a favorable downslope regime will should favor substantial clearing and ample sunshine for the afternoon. Temperatures will respond according, with highs warming into the mid 80s north to upper 80s/near 90 south.
Though more isolated/widely scattered in nature, some additional late day showers and storms are possible. PWATS will remain exceptionally high as strong insolation fuels moderate instability across the area. While weak sfc convergence along a lee side trough could spur some pop up storms, hi-res guidance favors a scenario of upstream convection over the higher terrain moving into the NW Piedmont late in the day, potentially related to PV anomaly associated with the southern tail end of the ongoing convection moving in the mid MS Valley. If storms do develop or move into the area, sufficient deep layer shear of 30-35 kts amidst moderate buoyancy of 2000-2500 J/KG and a favorable high DCAPE environment would support a threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly large hail. The severe threat appears greatest over the NW Piedmont, between 4-10 pm.
Any convection should eventually weaken as it drifts east into the central Piedmont through midnight. Mild overnight lows 65-70.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM Tuesday...
...Summer-like Heat Returns...
...Another Marginal/Level 1 Threat for Severe Storms during the afternoon and evening...
Upper ridge centered over the SE US will flatten and shift east and offshore during the day, which should make the Carolinas more susceptible to some upper disturbances moving into the region as a 70-80kt subtropical jet punches in from the SW. At the surface, a lee sfc troughiness will sharpen over western NC.
The first weather headline will be the summer-like heat. Low-level thicknesses of will be comparable to late June than early May and will support afternoon highs ranging from upper 80s across the north to lower 90s over the remainder of the forecast area. When coupled with the humid BL dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices over the central and eastern portions will be in the mid 90s.
The second weather headline will be another marginal/level 1 threat for severe storms. Confidence is below average regarding convective evolution/details Wednesday. However, there appears to be the potential for two round of storms during the forecast period; 1)
during the early afternoon/early evening which could develop along old outflow boundary from the previous night; 2) potentially followed by another round late Wednesday night and into early Thursday morning from upstream convection moving into the area.
The summerlike heat and humidity will result in moderate to strong destabilization with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 forecast across the area.
Strong shear of 30-35kts and another favorable high DCAPE environment will support a primary threat of damaging winds. Large hail is also possible, given the robust/fat CAPE profiles.
Lows Wednesday night could challenge for the warmest on record with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 316 AM Tuesday...
The main impacts in the extended will focus on Thu/Fri with a continued threat of severe weather (mainly Thu) ahead of a strong cold front. Drier conditions and seasonal to below normal temperatures are still favored for the weekend into early next week.
A messy and complex weather pattern is shaping up for the period Thu and Fri. Confidence on specifics is low given the latest trends in the suite of guidance products and overall synoptic pattern. Broadly speaking, while the specifics are not clear cut, troughing over the Midwest to Great Lakes/OH valley Thu is forecast to move east across the Mid-Atlantic Fri aftn/night before exiting sometime Sat off the NE US coast. At the surface, low pressure over the OH valley Thu is forecast to move into the NE US Fri, allowing a cold front to push through sometime Fri night.
What happens Thu may partially depend on what evolves Wed night to early Thu morning. Models, particularly the GFS, indicate impulses of energy tracking across the region on the nose of the left-exit region of a jet streak near upstate SC. This energy, if it verifies, would inherit a favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment for showers/storms overnight Wed night. This activity could lay an outflow boundary to start Thu morning. A secondary uncertainty is upstream convection that will advance into western NC and the Piedmont Thu morning ahead of the cold front over the TN valley.
Both of these uncertainties could have implications on the coverage and intensity of storms Thu aftn/evening due to potential rain- cooled air and convective debris clouds. That said, the environment in the absence of these competing factors still supports a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes with strong low/deep layer shear and high instability/DCAPE. The CSU/CIPS severe analogs continue to indicate a wide swath of severe potential from the SE US into VA. SPC has kept a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) across the region. A lee trough will be in place ahead of the front Thu, favoring a gusty/warm SW flow. Highs could be tricky given the above considerations, but for now have low 80s NW to near 90 SE.
The severe risk should subside overnight into Fri morning as the effective front pushes into SE SC. Meanwhile, the cold front looks to get hung up along the spine of the Appalachians, not moving through until Fri night. Deterministic/ensemble data still shows uncertainty on the strength of a secondary shortwave rounding the base of the main trough, which could bring a secondary shot of showers/storms Fri aftn/eve. The GFS is particularly robust with this feature relative to other solutions, tracking a secondary low along the cold front over eastern NC. We kept showers in the forecast Fri as a result, but retained the thunder chances mainly along/east of US-1 as the main instability axis should be confined along SE NC. Severe weather is not anticipated with this potential wave. Shower activity should end Fri night as the front pushes through.
The rest of the period looks to favor more dry time than rain chances, although precipitation cannot be fully ruled out. It appears ensemble data is still not in agreement on the placement and timing of a series of troughs that could impact the region over the weekend with the NW flow aloft. Rain chances are possible Sat and Sun, but with lack of consensus in the guidance, we kept most of the forecast dry with very low-end shower chances at this stage.
Temperatures should return closer to normal and even slightly below average with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 630 AM Tuesday...
Scattered showers and sprinkle will move east across central and eastern terminals over the next few hours, with little to no restrictions expected. Any sub-VFR ceilings will be short-lived, lifting and scattering out, with gusty swly surface wind by ~14-16Z Tue.
Some additional convection is possible this afternoon and evening, but should be more isolated/widely scattered in nature and potentially limited INVOF KINT and KGSO.
Outlook: There will be a chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers and storms throughout cntl NC through Thu, then ahead of a passing cold front, mainly at FAY, on Fri.
CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 8: KGSO: 66/1938 KRDU: 68/1930 KFAY: 70/2003
May 9: KGSO: 68/2002 KRDU: 70/1936 KFAY: 71/2009
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJNX JOHNSTON RGNL,NC | 14 sm | 10 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 70°F | 64°F | 83% | 29.88 | |
| KHRJ HARNETT RGNL JETPORT,NC | 16 sm | 10 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.90 | |
| KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC | 21 sm | 49 min | WSW 09G16 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 70°F | 63°F | 78% | 29.89 | |
| KTTA RALEIGH EXEC JETPORT AT SANFORDLEE COUNTY,NC | 24 sm | 15 min | WSW 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.89 |
Tide / Current for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:17 AM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:32 AM EDT -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:41 PM EDT 1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:36 PM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:17 AM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:32 AM EDT -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:41 PM EDT 1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:36 PM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0 |
| 11 am |
| -0 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:03 AM EDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:42 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:27 PM EDT 1.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:22 PM EDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:03 AM EDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:42 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:27 PM EDT 1.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:22 PM EDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.2 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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