Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garner, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:04PM Saturday February 23, 2019 10:26 AM EST (15:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 9:39AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garner, NC
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location: 35.6, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 231118
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
618 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will ridge southward and result in continued
appalachian cold air damming across the middle atlantic states
through Sunday morning. A pair of cold fronts will then cross the
region later Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 355 am Saturday...

classical, diabatically-enhanced cold air damming will reach
maturity over cntl nc today, with associated low overcast, periods
of rain and drizzle that will focus over NRN nc, and surface
temperatures only minimally rising into the 40s.

A warm front will retreat nwd into sern nc late tonight, with
related surface theta-e advection that will result in the
development of areas of (likely dense) fog late tonight-early
Sunday, and surface temperatures increasing before daybreak, most
notably into the 50s over the sandhills and srn-cntl coastal plain.

While periods of drizzle will persist amidst the widespread low
overcast throughout cntl nc, the threat of steady, measurable rain
will pivot nwwd into the WRN piedmont overnight, where isentropic
ascent and the depth of the saturated cad layer will be maximized,
in part owing to the influence of glancing height falls aloft
accompanying the lifting of a potent mid level cyclone from the srn
high plains this morning to the great lakes tonight.

Short term Sunday and Sunday night
As of 600 am Saturday...

cold air damming will linger over the piedmont early sun, in a
regime of lingering cool temperatures and areas of (dense) fog,
drizzle, and light rain through late morning-midday. In fact, it
will likely be the passage of a cold occluded front, embedded triple
point, and accompanying broken line of showers through the nw
piedmont that will finally erode the preceding cad there, and
consequently promote mixing and surface warming.

To the southeast, in a briefly growing warm sector ahead of the
foregoing, broken line of showers, and accompanying triple point
that will migrate from near clt at 12z Sun to near ixa at 18z, swly
warm sector winds will increase and become gusty to around 30 kts
for a short time during the late morning to midday hours.

Additionally, momentum transport in showers will promote a risk of
locally stronger gusts up to 45 kts in the warm sector (ie. To the
southeast of the residually stable NW piedmont).

Lastly, a separate regime of strong wly winds behind the
cold occluded front will spread ewd across cntl nc during the
afternoon hours, strongest across the NRN nwrn piedmont to the
coastal plain, where bufr forecast soundings depict up to 35-45 kts
of momentum transfer within a deeply-mixed boundary layer. This
regime may prompt issuance of a wind advisory for the NRN half of
cntl nc, roughly north of highway 64, whereas the earlier warm
sector winds over the southeast will be somewhat weaker, occur for a
shorter duration, and ultimately be conditional upon the degree to
which warming can occur prior to the shower frontal passage.

It will otherwise be warm, with strong downslope compressional
warming that will largely offset initial CAA behind the foregoing
front(s), with high temperatures ranging from mid 60s NW piedmont to
lwr to mid 70s in the ERN piedmont, sandhills, and coastal plain.

Mixing and CAA will continue early Sun night, then subside late,
particularly over the SRN piedmont, in closest proximity to 1030 mb
high pressure forecast to be centered over the tn lwr oh valleys by
12z mon, with lows mostly in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 335 am Saturday...

a much quieter weather pattern arrives on Monday behind the cold
front as a slightly modified area of high pressure settles into the
mid atlantic region. This should allow for near normal temperatures
(highs in the upper 50s low 60s and lows primarily in the 30s low
40s) with mostly clear skies through mid week.

By late Wednesday, models begin to diverge fairly rapidly, with the
ecmwf keeping keeping the sfc high a bit stronger compared to the
gfs cmc, which tend to aggravate a series of weak southern stream
disturbances mid week, spreading chc schc pops across the area as
early as Wednesday afternoon (while the ECMWF keeps us relatively
dry later into the week). Have trended a bit closer to the north
american solutions here, but confidence remains low. On Friday, sfc
high pressure shifts east of the appalachians before diving south,
helping to push a backdoor cold front through the region. This will
initiate cad type conditions late Friday morning as a sfc coastal
low begins to develop to our southeast. These features will be worth
watching closely, although, models continue to flip flop in terms of
weekend impacts. Current trends have both models more aggressive
with the second shortwave trough, likely propelling the coastal low
further offshore, keeping the area clean of wintry precipitation
potential over next weekend.

Aviation 11z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 615 am Saturday...

strengthening cold air damming over cntl nc will result in continued
widespread, mainly ifr-lifr conditions through the TAF period.

Periods of rain and drizzle will also persist, heaviest at NRN sites
between 10z-20z today, and again primarily at int and gso overnight.

Additionally, areas of dense fog and low level wind shear are
expected to develop overnight, and subsequently continue through the
end of the 12z TAF period.

Outlook: lifr-ifr conditions, and periods of rain and drizzle at
piedmont sites, will mix out toVFR with the approach and passage of
a front and accompanying broken line of showers between 12-18z
Sunday. It will also become windy Sunday, with peak gusts mainly
between 30-40 kts through early Sunday evening. Isolated gusts
between 40-45 kts will be possible over the NRN piedmont, from int
and gso ewd to near and especially just north of rdu and rwi.VFR
conditions will then continue through at least tue, with a low
chance of MVFR ceilings over the piedmont on wed.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Mws
long term... Jjm
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC14 mi47 minNE 510.00 miLight Rain41°F41°F100%1027.1 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC16 mi47 minNNE 72.50 miFog/Mist43°F42°F100%1026.4 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC21 mi36 minN 51.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1027.6 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC24 mi42 minNNE 75.00 miLight Rain40°F39°F99%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from JNX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE7NE8NE7NE5NE6CalmNE4CalmNE5NE7NE7NE9
G18
NE5NE4NE5NE6NE5NE4NE4NE5N4NE7NE7
1 day agoS4SW3W3CalmW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--------------------N4E5E4
2 days agoNE5NE5E4NE4N8N6N5N4N3N4N5CalmS3NW5CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 12:53 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:16 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:41 PM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.10.10.611.41.51.51.310.70.40.1-0.1-00.40.91.21.41.41.310.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Sat -- 03:07 AM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:02 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.51.821.91.61.20.80.40-0.20.10.61.21.71.91.81.61.30.90.60.2-0-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.