Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garner, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:19PM Thursday May 23, 2019 3:31 AM EDT (07:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:44PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garner, NC
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location: 35.6, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 230707
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
307 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure aloft will persist over the southeast into
the weekend generally producing dry weather with above normal
temperatures. A disturbance will move across north carolina and
virginia today and a cold front will approach the region from the
northeast on Friday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 1000 pm Wednesday...

surface high pressure is currently anchored off the coast of the
northeastern united states this evening with ridging at 925 mb
located near the outer banks of north carolina. This low level
ridge is forecast to continue to nudge south through the
overnight hours allowing low level moisture to pivot up and
around the anticyclonic flow. Low level saturation looks to be
deep enough to produce patchy drizzle. Low level omega fields
and saturation appears to best line up over the northwestern
piedmont. Current forecast has this covered nicely, with only
minor changes made at this time.

Prev discussion-->
remainder of the afternoon... Slow and gradual erosion of this
morning's stratus deck will continue through the afternoon and
evening. Nearby stalled frontal zone across upstate sc has setup a
nice tmb and weak instability axis which could allow for an isolated
diurnally driven shower or two to drift into our southern piedmont
counties this afternoon.

For tonight, with the strongest low-level sely return flow aimed
over western nc, expect low clouds stratus across the western
piedmont counties to fill back lower during the late evening and
then spread east overnight. Guidance also is hinting at the
possibility of a few showers or sprinkles, mainly across the far
western zones where the moisture lift is strongest. Lows tonight
will range from the upper 50s NE to mid 60s sw.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
As of 255 pm Wednesday...

after a one day hiatus, the summer heat returns on Thursday.

Dispersion of stratus across the nc piedmont will give way to ample
sun and a warm swly flow by mid to late morning. Highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Diurnal destablization amidst the remnant band of
enhanced low-mid level moisture left-over from the morning stratus
could allow for an early day afternoon pop up shower. Additionally,
the flattening of the upper level ridge across the region in
response to the central us short-wave trough ejecting east across
the great lakes will be just enough that the resultant w-nwly
steering flow could allow the sewd prorogation of some upstream
convection or MCV towards the northern zones late tomorrow
afternoon early evening. The GFS is most excited with scenario,
while the majority of the other guidance keeps the bulk of the
convection north of the area. Will retain a slight chance across the
northern two-thirds of the forecast area during the afternoon and
evening.

Lows Thursday night in the upper 60s to around 70.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 305 am Thursday...

as the cold front settles southward, cool high pressure will build
into northeastern portions of the area on Saturday. The surface high
will then continue shifting east-southeastward over the atlantic,
taking the cooler air with it Saturday night Sunday. Aloft, the
center of the high will remain in place over the gulf coast and
southeast us regions as the sub-tropical ridge extends northward
into the mid-atlantic. Largely expect the sub-tropical ridge and
high aloft to remain in the aforementioned regions through the
remainder of the extended forecast period. A few "ridge rider" waves
may move over the area, possibly resulting in some showers. However,
model agreement is not great and thus confidence is low. A surface
front extending into the region from the parent low over new england
will move through the area Sunday Sunday night. This front could
provide enough forcing for showers to develop, thus best chances for
rain in this part of the forecast will be during that time frame.

Otherwise, the weather is expected to be hot and dry through
Wednesday night. Saturday will be the coolest day, with highs in the
upper 80s NE to mid 90s south. Highs in the 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s expected thereafter. Even though the overnight
lows will not provide much of a relief from the persistent heat, the
min rh values will thankfully be fairly low, helping to keep heat
indices near the air temperature.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 205 am Thursday...

a fairly widespread blanket of MVFRVFR stratus with bases from 2.5
to 3.5kft is present across the western piedmont of the carolinas
this morning with mainly clear skies to the east. This cloud deck
driven by a southeast flow of enhanced moisture, will lower and
thicken overnight with CIGS in the western piedmont falling below
1kft late tonight with the cloud deck shifting east overnight across
much of the remainder of the piedmont. CIGS at kint kgso will slowly
improve during the mid to late morning on Thursday withVFR
conditions are expected areawide after 17z. Vsbys are likely to
remain predominantlyVFR through the TAF period. Surface winds will
be light from the south to southeast overnight and then increase to
around 10kts with gusts around 15kts during the afternoon.

Looking beyond 06z fri, a ridge of high pressure aloft will persist
through the weekend resulting in generally fair weather with limited
thunderstorm coverage. -blaes

Climate
Here are the record high temperatures and the year they were set for
the period may 24th-29th:
date rdu gso fay
may 24th 95 1944 93 1915 99 1938
may 25th 93 2011 96 1926 98 2011
may 26th 94 1953 95 1926 98 1926
may 27th 96 1916 100 1911 100 1953
may 28th 99 1941 98 1916 102 1941
may 29th 98 1941 99 1914 102 1941

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Blaes
near term... Haines
short term... Cbl
long term... Kc
aviation... Blaes
climate... NWS rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC14 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair61°F60°F100%1024.4 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC16 mi52 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F57°F76%1024.4 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC21 mi41 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F57°F73%1023.9 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC24 mi52 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F61°F98%1024 hPa

Wind History from JNX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE7NE7E4NE8NE4CalmCalmE4E5SE3CalmCalmCalmS4S5CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE5N6NE6W4CalmW4CalmNW4N4N4CalmNE6CalmNE4E4E3CalmCalm
2 days agoS5SW3CalmS4SW5SW6
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S6CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 01:48 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:30 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.10.30.71.11.31.41.41.310.80.50.30.10.10.30.711.11.21.10.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Thu -- 04:16 AM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:22 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.51.81.91.91.61.30.90.60.40.10.20.611.41.51.61.41.10.80.50.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.