Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garner, NC

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Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:58PM Monday August 20, 2018 11:04 AM EDT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 12:35AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garner, NC
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location: 35.6, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 201452
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1050 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
A front will become quasi-stationary over central nc through
tonight, then retreat northward across va on Tuesday. A strong
cold front will cross central nc late Tuesday night through
early Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1050 am Monday...

14z meso scale and 12z upper air analyses depict and moisture rich
atmosphere over the carolinas with a mid level S W exiting the
region. Weak subsidence in the wake of this feature should inhibit
convective development until mid day or early afternoon. Afterwhich,
scattered convection should develop along an outflow boundary
residing over the southern counties, with isolated convection
anticipated elsewhere. A S W lifting newd from upstate sc will
likely trigger sustain a cluster of showers and storms across most
of the piedmont this evening into the first half of the overnight.

While severe parameters less than impressive, presence of dry air in
the mid levels will potentially interact with the storms updrafts,
enhancing the downdrafts, leading to locally strong or damaging
downbursts. This may cause pockets of isolated wind damage. Main
issue may be with flooding, as the moisture rich air mass will lead
to efficient rain production, and torrential rainfall rates on the
order of 2-4 inches per hour at times. Rates of this magnitude will
be exacerbated in urbanized areas, leading to flooding of streets
and poor drainage areas (underpasses, low spots at the bottom of the
hill, etc.). Believe threat area too limited for a flash flood watch
at this time but will continue to evaluate. Have mentioned heavy
rainfall in the forecast text and will continue to highlight in the
hwo.

Afternoon temperatures will vary, depending upon extent of cloud
cover and convective development. The later the convection takes to
evolve, the warmer we will get. Feel best bet is in the mid-upper
80s. Per visible imagery, if it appears an extended period of sun
will occur, may need to boost high temps up 2-3 degrees. Overnight
temperatures 70-75.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 415 am Monday...

severe weather is still a possibility for late Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

With the approach of an amplified mid upr trough, we'll see deep
warm moist S SW flow ahead of it and warm sector destabilization on
Tuesday. As a prefrontal sfc trough approaches late in the day, in
conjunction with increasing deep layer shear with the approach of
the mid upr trough, the ingredients for isolated to scattered severe
tstms will come together. Deep layer shear progs, along with
forecast soundings and hodographs suggest storm mode will be mostly
multi-cell cluster with straight-line winds being the main threat,
however there's enough low level shear to support the potential for
a couple isolated supercells. Timing for such a line of tstms
appears to be later in the day, or mainly evening hours. Shower and
tstm activity expected to wind down overnight. Then on Wednesday,
the sfc cold front and upper trough axis are forecast to move
through, so will need to keep a chance for showers tstms in the
forecast for Wednesday afternoon, but the best forcing for such
activity (and severe storms) will have exited, so any pcpn on
Wednesday should be fairly light. Temps Tuesday and Wednesday near-
normal. -np

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 420 am Monday...

in the wake of the S W passage Tuesday night, the upper level trough
will pivot through nc Wednesday into Thursday while the surface cold
front pushes through central nc late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Depending on the timing of the fropa, some showers storms could
linger, primarily across the east, on Wednesday. Temperatures will
be determined by the front progression as well, but for now expect
highs in the mid 80s north to around 90 degrees south, while lows in
the low 60s NW to upper 60s SE are expected. High pressure at the
surface will build into nc on Thursday and Friday, possibly
continuing to wedge southwestward into the region into Saturday
night Sunday. The aforementioned high will push the piedmont trough
offshore, where it could remain through the end of the work week. As
a result, expect a primarily dry forecast through much of the
extended forecast period, though the best chances for showers storms
will be limited to the aft eve across the south and southeast over
the weekend. With the relatively cool high pressure in place, expect
much more comfortable temperatures Thursday through Saturday, with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows generally in the low to mid 60s
(the far north and west could see some highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s on Thursday and Friday).

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 755 am Monday...

an area of ifr-MVFR ceilings across NRN nc, along and on the cool
side of a stationary front draped from sern va nern nc wswwd to near
int gso, will slowly lift and scatter toVFR through around 17-18z.

Any sub-vfr ceilings to the south of the triad sites (int gso) are
expected to be of shorter duration and most likely to occur as the
mixed layer begins to develop with diurnal heating between 14-18z.

Additionally, that front, and an outflow boundary now draped from
near hky to fay, will provide a focus for scattered to numerous
showers and storms this afternoon; and these will likely develop
newd into the piedmont sites and rwi through 03-04z, before
decreasing in coverage and intensity shortly thereafter. Patchy fog
and stratus may redevelop late tonight, particularly at piedmont
sites, but the most widespread fog and low clouds are likely to
occur just to the north of cntl nc - in va.

Outlook: a couple of troughs aloft will move east and interact with
a continued moist and unstable air mass and lead to a couple of
additional rounds of showers and storms Tue afternoon and evening,
and again Wed afternoon.VFR conditions, in a markedly drier cooler
air mass, will follow for the end of the week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Wss
short term... Np
long term... Kc
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC14 mi95 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F71°F89%1017.6 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC16 mi95 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F73°F92%1018.3 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC21 mi74 minVar 310.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1017.6 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC24 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast74°F70°F89%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from JNX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4SW3SW4SW4SW6SW3SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmS5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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SW5SW5SW7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5W8
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2 days agoCalmSW4SW6SW9SW8SW7SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW4SW3SW3SW3SW3SW3SW4SW4SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:16 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:42 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.210.80.50.30.20.20.50.81.11.21.31.10.80.60.40.20.10.10.40.711.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Mon -- 01:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:02 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:10 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:08 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.30.20.40.71.11.41.61.61.410.70.40.20.10.20.61.11.41.71.91.81.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.