Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garner, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:45 AM EDT (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 1:50AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garner, NC
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location: 35.6, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 230717
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
317 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm and humid southwest flow will hold over the area today. A
cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon, and then
push southeast through north carolina tonight. This front will
settle across south carolina Thursday through Friday, as high
pressure builds in from the northeast.

Near term through tonight
As of 250 am Wednesday...

looks like a good shot at a few strong to marginally severe storms
this afternoon into early evening. The latest surface map shows a
frontal zone extending through the ohio valley NE to W ny then se
through the DELMARVA peninsula. The remnants of last evening's
convection are crossing SE va in the form of patchy showers, while a
more organized w-to-e prefrontal band of storms bisects wv. Soupy
air holds over nc, with a light SW flow and dewpoints in the mid-
upper 60s contributing to lingering weak CAPE (offset by widespread
cin). Accompanying the surface front is a mid level trough axis, and
both of these features will progress ese through the day, resulting
in an increase in deep layer shear over nc, most markedly over far n
and NE sections. Decent insolation in the warm sector today is
likely to push temps up into the mid-upper 80s, and with dewpoints
holding fairly steady despite mixing, moderate CAPE peaking at 2000-
2500 j kg is expected. But the forecast lapse rates (6.0-7.0 at 925-
700 mb and 6.0-6.5 at 700-500 mb) are good but not remarkable, and
the deep layer shear will still be muted at around 25-30 kts at most
(highest in the NE cwa), limiting storm severity. Dynamic forcing
for ascent will also be marginal, with weak upper divergence and
weak mid level dpva, along with decreasing low level winds as the
cold front approaches. That said, the potential destabilization and
improving winds aloft still support a few strong to marginally
severe storms, mainly along and N of the highway 70 corridor, with
both damaging winds (given forecast downdraft CAPE over 1200) and
large hail (with decent -10c to -30c CAPE projected and a lot of
hail-heavy analog events) possible. Storms are expected to become
more organized roughly along the highway 64 corridor late this
afternoon, then propagate to the ese out ahead of the front itself.

Will trend pops up to high chance in the far N before going up to
likely, moving from N to S as the cold pool translates to the s
during the evening and early overnight hours. Will finish up the
night with lingering showers and isolated storms over the far S cwa
late. Expect lows in the mid-upper 60s. -gih

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 305 am Wednesday...

all but the southern third of the forecast area is expected to be
mostly dry. The broad mid level trough will continue to push ese and
offshore Thu morning, while the surface cold front will have settled
just to our south, as high pressure builds in from the n. Models
depict a lingering moisture axis near the front spanning southern nc
through Thu thu night, with warmer temps and higher dewpoints here
supporting scattered showers and perhaps a few storms. Will retain
low chance pops and mostly cloudy skies across the S thu, with no
pops and fair skies over the n. Highs from the lower 80s N to mid
80s s. As the low level anticyclone center moves over and off new
england, the degree and depth of low level upslope-directed flow
should allow low pops to drift into the SW cwa, and will hold only
15-25% rain chances across the SW sections Thu night. Fair skies
elsewhere. Lows from the upper 50s NE to the mid 60s s. -gih

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 315 am Wednesday...

an elongated east west oriented surface high just to our north will
try to keep central nc dry on Friday but a moisture ridden airmass
lingering to the south will try to bring precipitation into our
southern and western counties, with the emphasis still on diurnal
convection. Chances for precipitation will increase later in the day
as the surface high pulls out to sea and the return flow around the
bermuda high takes back over. Highs in the low to mid 80s with
dewpoints in the low to middle 60s will feel drier, but again this
could be short lived as more moist air returns for the evening hours.

All eyes will be to the south for the holiday weekend as a low
pressure system with tropical characteristics will develop over the
gulf of mexico and move northward. Run to run consistency in the
ecmwf solution makes it the more favorable solution at this point,
which takes the system to the northwest and over louisiana by
Sunday. This system will bring moisture transport northward into the
carolinas but that doesn't yet mean that the weekend will be a total
washout. At this point the best chance for convection on Saturday
will be in the western piedmont with the same type of hit and miss
showers possible anywhere across the cwa. Highs in the mid to upper
80s. By Sunday, the moisture begins to be focused more towards the
low, which will actually work to force it westward and away from nc.

This could lead to a relatively dry Sunday but with increased cloud
cover. This will drop temps back into the low 80s for daytime highs.

By memorial day, moisture reinforcements will arrive and this looks
to be the day with the most convective coverage, particularly during
the afternoon hours. Highs in the low 80s once again. More of the
same for Tuesday despite the fact that models handle the tropical
low much differently at this point with the ECMWF solution still
spinning over louisiana and the GFS a mere remnant of its former
self.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 1235 am Wednesday...

vfr conditions will dominate through the noon hour at all central nc
terminals, although a period of MVFR CIGS is possible 08z-12z this
morning at int gso within and behind a dissipating batch of light
showers crossing the area. Otherwise, any other shower activity
through the morning hours will be isolated and confined to the va
border region. By early afternoon, a band of scattered to numerous
storms will develop across northern nc, sinking slowly to the sse
through the afternoon evening as a cold front approaches from the
nw. Storm chances will be greatest at int gso rdu rwi 19z-01z and at
fay 22z-05z. Brief sub-vfr conditions with strong shifting winds and
hail are possible with any of these storms from mid afternoon
through late evening.VFR conditions should then return after
midnight as the cold front sinks just south of the area, allowing
drier air to build in from the north.

Looking beyond 06z thu, there is a chance for brief late-night early-
morning stratus in the S (near fay) early thu, but otherwiseVFR
conditions and dry weather will rule over the region Thu into Fri as
high pressure builds in from the N and ne. Early morning fog stratus
chances return Sat Sun as the surface high moves out over the
atlantic, bringing a moist southerly return flow. Mainly afternoon
evening shower storm chances will resume Sat Sun areawide. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Ellis
aviation... Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC14 mi56 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1017.3 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC16 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair68°F65°F91%1017.6 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC21 mi55 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F66°F93%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from JNX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3S4CalmCalmCalmS5CalmS4S4S3S8
G14
S6S5SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmS3Calm
1 day agoCalmSW4S3CalmW3S5SW3S7S6SW4S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS5S7S6SW3W5SW4SW4SW5SW3W4SW4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmS3SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Wed -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:15 AM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.310.80.50.30.100.30.711.31.41.31.20.90.70.40.2-0.1-00.30.711.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Wed -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:08 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:45 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.10.10.511.51.71.81.71.41.10.80.50.1-0.10.10.511.51.71.81.61.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.