Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garner, NC
May 5, 2024 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:42 AM Moonset 4:30 PM |
Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 051904 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A stationary front across the western Piedmont will dissipate this evening. An upper-level disturbance across western NC this afternoon will exit the area to the northeast this evening. Another upper- level disturbance will approach the mid-Atlantic on Monday and exit the region on Tuesday. High pressure will extend into the during the mid week before a cold front approaches late in the work week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 300 PM Sunday...
* Scattered to numerous showers and storms associated with an MCV will move northeast across the Piedmont through early afternoon and the Coastal Plain into the early evening.
* A more stable air mass in the Triad should result in just a little patchy rain or a few showers through the afternoon.
The latest water vapor satellite imagery and regional radar imagery shows a well defined vortex/MCV that is tied to convection that moved across northeast GA/Western SC last evening. This feature is located across the western Piedmont of NC, a little west of KRDU this afternoon and is driving multiple clusters of showers and storms across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Across the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain, a warm and humid air mass with dew points in the mid to upper 60s and a southeast wind is in place. The air mass across the western Piedmont and Triad is more stable with lingering low clouds in place. The air mass has become weakly to moderately unstable across the southeast with MLCAPE values a little in excess of 500 J/Kg.
As the MCV continues to move northeast, the scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to lift northeast and shift east over the next several hours. As the afternoon wares on the focus for convection will shift into the Coastal Plain. Given the modest mid level lapse rates and weak to possibly moderately unstable airmass, a few enhanced wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Further west, just a few showers may move across the western Piedmont through the late afternoon.
Upper level forcing wanes this evening and overnight with some weak mid level ridging extending across the area. The axis of deepest moisture slips east slightly but PW values remain near 150% of normal overnight. Can't rule out an isolated shower overnight and there is a signal for convection that may develop in far western NC to hold together and move into the western Piedmont as it fades late this evening. Otherwise, clouds will thicken up again tonight and it will be muggy. Overnight lows will range in the lower to mid 60s.
-Blaes
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 210 PM Sunday...
Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will try to briefly build over the Southeast US on Mon, but will then be pushed eastward again as the s/w to the west moves eastward across the Appalachians and into the mid-Atlantic late Mon/Mon night. This s/w trough may become slightly negatively tilted as it swings through the region. At the surface, high pressure will sit over Bermuda, ridging swwd into the Southeast US through Mon night. A quasi-stationary frontal zone will extend from the Northeast US, wswwd through the OH Valley and mid-MS Valley, remaining north of the area through Mon night. Expect sly to swly flow over central NC Mon/Mon night, resulting in continued advection of warm, moist air into the area.
Precipitation/Convection: With the continued feed of warm, moist air into the area, MUCAPE of 800-1500 J/Kg is forecast by both the NAM and GFS across the area during the day, while effective shear is forecast to be about 15-20 kts. After a brief drop in PWATs tonight, they should climb back into the 1.5-1.75 inch range on Mon. All of the ingredients will be present for storms to develop, contingent on forcing. The best forcing for ascent will be with the s/w aloft, however the models vary with the timing of that feature. The hi-res model guidance from 12Z suggests showers and storms may develop over the Piedmont during the afternoon, then move eastward through the evening. A secondary round of showers and storms moving across the mountains Mon eve could continue eastward through the area Mon night. For now, central NC remains in general thunder from the SPC and the hi-res guidance varies on the coverage and intensity of convection. Given all of the above, cannot rule out an isolated strong/severe storm should all the ingredients come together at the right time Mon aft/eve, before loss of heating and nocturnal stabilization commences.
Temperatures: Expect largely broken/overcast skies through Mon night. Highs should range from the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE, with lows mainly in the low to mid 60s Mon night.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1211 PM Sunday...
Upper pattern for the extended: A short-wave will exit to our east early Tuesday, behind which mid-level ridging will build back over the southeast through late Wednesday. The ridge will de-amplify as a strong vort max digs into the Midwest Thursday, eventually ejecting eastward through the northeast US. This feature will induce increasingly swly flow aloft over central NC Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures: Hot and humid conditions will persist Tuesday through Thursday under the anomalous mid-level ridge. The NBM still continues to highlight high probabilities for >90 degrees for locations south and east of Raleigh both Wednesday and Thursday (The GEFS, EPS, and GEPS are less enthused, but generally depict a similar geographic area with highest probabilities (10-30%)). Given dew points will peak in the upper 60s/lower 70s, heat indices will likely pop up into the mid 90s both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Thus, make sure to take frequent breaks in the shade and hydrate if spending a lot of time outdoors these days.
Temps will "cool" off a bit Friday and into the weekend as the aforementioned upper vort max/trough dips into the southeast. Highs in the mid 80s are currently expected Friday, followed by mid to upper 70s on Saturday. However, these may need to be modified some as we get closer and guidance comes into better agreement/confidence increases.
Precipitation: POPs will be lower Tuesday and Wednesday under general ridging aloft (and some nwly flow in the lower levels should lower PWAT a bit). However, can't rule out some isolated/scattered diurnally driven showers/storms along any differential heating boundaries including late day sea breeze migration into our area.
Some guidance depicts some energy aloft trickling through our area late Wednesday which could maybe generate a bit more activity.
However, will keep POPs capped at low chance for now.
As we progress into the Thursday through Saturday timeframe, there is some uncertainty wrt to the evolution of the aforementioned strong vort max/trough and an associated cold front. However, the general consensus among ensembles/deterministic output is that this upper feature does look strong enough to possibly induce an airmass change for our area later this weekend (i.e. a stronger cold front actually making it's way to the coast). As such, showers and storms are likely ahead of and along the cold front as it moves through.
While we'll need a bit more updated model guidance to get into specifics, it does appear at this point that some severe storms will be possible Thursday and Friday as guidance suggests an uptick in mid-level lapse rates and bulk-layer shear in this time frame.
Again, a bit too far out for specifics, but we'll continue to monitor as we get closer to later next week.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 215 PM Sunday...
An upper level disturbance moving northeast across western NC this afternoon will trigger scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms across much of the area. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the KFAY and KRDU terminals through around 21Z with brief period of IFR VSBYS and perhaps CIGS along with wind gusts of around 25kts. The unsettled weather with showers and storms will persist longer at KRWI, until around 23Z.
Further west, in a more stable airmass and behind the disturbance, spotty showers are possible at the KINT/KGSO terminals through around 22Z but no thunderstorms are expected.
Most of the widespread showers and deep convection should have exited the area by 00Z with mainly VFR to MVFR conditions with some CIG restrictions early this evening. The overnight should largely be dry although an isolated shower is possible, with the best chance across the west. Widespread IFR and MVFR restrictions will redevelop late this evening in stratus and fog. LIFR condition are likely late tonight in the northern and western Piedmont, especially the KINT and KGSO terminals. Conditions should slowly improve on Monday morning with more showers and storms possible on Monday afternoon.
Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected on Monday. Rain chances decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday with just a limited threat of an afternoon/evening shower or storm before rain chances increase on Thursday. With a moist airmass in place, areas of fog and stratus are possible on Tuesday morning with reduced chances during the mid week. -Blaes
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A stationary front across the western Piedmont will dissipate this evening. An upper-level disturbance across western NC this afternoon will exit the area to the northeast this evening. Another upper- level disturbance will approach the mid-Atlantic on Monday and exit the region on Tuesday. High pressure will extend into the during the mid week before a cold front approaches late in the work week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 300 PM Sunday...
* Scattered to numerous showers and storms associated with an MCV will move northeast across the Piedmont through early afternoon and the Coastal Plain into the early evening.
* A more stable air mass in the Triad should result in just a little patchy rain or a few showers through the afternoon.
The latest water vapor satellite imagery and regional radar imagery shows a well defined vortex/MCV that is tied to convection that moved across northeast GA/Western SC last evening. This feature is located across the western Piedmont of NC, a little west of KRDU this afternoon and is driving multiple clusters of showers and storms across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Across the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain, a warm and humid air mass with dew points in the mid to upper 60s and a southeast wind is in place. The air mass across the western Piedmont and Triad is more stable with lingering low clouds in place. The air mass has become weakly to moderately unstable across the southeast with MLCAPE values a little in excess of 500 J/Kg.
As the MCV continues to move northeast, the scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to lift northeast and shift east over the next several hours. As the afternoon wares on the focus for convection will shift into the Coastal Plain. Given the modest mid level lapse rates and weak to possibly moderately unstable airmass, a few enhanced wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Further west, just a few showers may move across the western Piedmont through the late afternoon.
Upper level forcing wanes this evening and overnight with some weak mid level ridging extending across the area. The axis of deepest moisture slips east slightly but PW values remain near 150% of normal overnight. Can't rule out an isolated shower overnight and there is a signal for convection that may develop in far western NC to hold together and move into the western Piedmont as it fades late this evening. Otherwise, clouds will thicken up again tonight and it will be muggy. Overnight lows will range in the lower to mid 60s.
-Blaes
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 210 PM Sunday...
Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will try to briefly build over the Southeast US on Mon, but will then be pushed eastward again as the s/w to the west moves eastward across the Appalachians and into the mid-Atlantic late Mon/Mon night. This s/w trough may become slightly negatively tilted as it swings through the region. At the surface, high pressure will sit over Bermuda, ridging swwd into the Southeast US through Mon night. A quasi-stationary frontal zone will extend from the Northeast US, wswwd through the OH Valley and mid-MS Valley, remaining north of the area through Mon night. Expect sly to swly flow over central NC Mon/Mon night, resulting in continued advection of warm, moist air into the area.
Precipitation/Convection: With the continued feed of warm, moist air into the area, MUCAPE of 800-1500 J/Kg is forecast by both the NAM and GFS across the area during the day, while effective shear is forecast to be about 15-20 kts. After a brief drop in PWATs tonight, they should climb back into the 1.5-1.75 inch range on Mon. All of the ingredients will be present for storms to develop, contingent on forcing. The best forcing for ascent will be with the s/w aloft, however the models vary with the timing of that feature. The hi-res model guidance from 12Z suggests showers and storms may develop over the Piedmont during the afternoon, then move eastward through the evening. A secondary round of showers and storms moving across the mountains Mon eve could continue eastward through the area Mon night. For now, central NC remains in general thunder from the SPC and the hi-res guidance varies on the coverage and intensity of convection. Given all of the above, cannot rule out an isolated strong/severe storm should all the ingredients come together at the right time Mon aft/eve, before loss of heating and nocturnal stabilization commences.
Temperatures: Expect largely broken/overcast skies through Mon night. Highs should range from the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE, with lows mainly in the low to mid 60s Mon night.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1211 PM Sunday...
Upper pattern for the extended: A short-wave will exit to our east early Tuesday, behind which mid-level ridging will build back over the southeast through late Wednesday. The ridge will de-amplify as a strong vort max digs into the Midwest Thursday, eventually ejecting eastward through the northeast US. This feature will induce increasingly swly flow aloft over central NC Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures: Hot and humid conditions will persist Tuesday through Thursday under the anomalous mid-level ridge. The NBM still continues to highlight high probabilities for >90 degrees for locations south and east of Raleigh both Wednesday and Thursday (The GEFS, EPS, and GEPS are less enthused, but generally depict a similar geographic area with highest probabilities (10-30%)). Given dew points will peak in the upper 60s/lower 70s, heat indices will likely pop up into the mid 90s both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Thus, make sure to take frequent breaks in the shade and hydrate if spending a lot of time outdoors these days.
Temps will "cool" off a bit Friday and into the weekend as the aforementioned upper vort max/trough dips into the southeast. Highs in the mid 80s are currently expected Friday, followed by mid to upper 70s on Saturday. However, these may need to be modified some as we get closer and guidance comes into better agreement/confidence increases.
Precipitation: POPs will be lower Tuesday and Wednesday under general ridging aloft (and some nwly flow in the lower levels should lower PWAT a bit). However, can't rule out some isolated/scattered diurnally driven showers/storms along any differential heating boundaries including late day sea breeze migration into our area.
Some guidance depicts some energy aloft trickling through our area late Wednesday which could maybe generate a bit more activity.
However, will keep POPs capped at low chance for now.
As we progress into the Thursday through Saturday timeframe, there is some uncertainty wrt to the evolution of the aforementioned strong vort max/trough and an associated cold front. However, the general consensus among ensembles/deterministic output is that this upper feature does look strong enough to possibly induce an airmass change for our area later this weekend (i.e. a stronger cold front actually making it's way to the coast). As such, showers and storms are likely ahead of and along the cold front as it moves through.
While we'll need a bit more updated model guidance to get into specifics, it does appear at this point that some severe storms will be possible Thursday and Friday as guidance suggests an uptick in mid-level lapse rates and bulk-layer shear in this time frame.
Again, a bit too far out for specifics, but we'll continue to monitor as we get closer to later next week.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 215 PM Sunday...
An upper level disturbance moving northeast across western NC this afternoon will trigger scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms across much of the area. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the KFAY and KRDU terminals through around 21Z with brief period of IFR VSBYS and perhaps CIGS along with wind gusts of around 25kts. The unsettled weather with showers and storms will persist longer at KRWI, until around 23Z.
Further west, in a more stable airmass and behind the disturbance, spotty showers are possible at the KINT/KGSO terminals through around 22Z but no thunderstorms are expected.
Most of the widespread showers and deep convection should have exited the area by 00Z with mainly VFR to MVFR conditions with some CIG restrictions early this evening. The overnight should largely be dry although an isolated shower is possible, with the best chance across the west. Widespread IFR and MVFR restrictions will redevelop late this evening in stratus and fog. LIFR condition are likely late tonight in the northern and western Piedmont, especially the KINT and KGSO terminals. Conditions should slowly improve on Monday morning with more showers and storms possible on Monday afternoon.
Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected on Monday. Rain chances decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday with just a limited threat of an afternoon/evening shower or storm before rain chances increase on Thursday. With a moist airmass in place, areas of fog and stratus are possible on Tuesday morning with reduced chances during the mid week. -Blaes
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJNX JOHNSTON RGNL,NC | 14 sm | 9 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 30.05 | |
| KHRJ HARNETT RGNL JETPORT,NC | 16 sm | 9 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 30.06 | |
| KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC | 21 sm | 31 min | SSE 05 | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 30.05 |
| KTTA RALEIGH EXEC JETPORT AT SANFORDLEE COUNTY,NC | 24 sm | 14 min | SSE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 72°F | 100% | 30.04 |
Tide / Current for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT 1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:56 PM EDT 1.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT 1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:56 PM EDT 1.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| -0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:42 AM EDT 1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:43 PM EDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:11 PM EDT 2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:42 AM EDT 1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:43 PM EDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:11 PM EDT 2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| -0 |
| 6 am |
| 0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.1 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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