Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Norman of Catawba, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:18PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:35 AM EST (15:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:46PMMoonset 11:20PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Norman of Catawba, NC
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location: 35.6, -80.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 141149
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
649 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Cool high pressure will set up north of our region today. Another
low pressure will bring widespread rain Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Freezing rain and sleet also will develop where
temperatures fall near or below freezing. Cool and dry high pressure
moves over our region for the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
As of 640 am: under confluent upper flow, a strong sfc high is
expanding out of the midwest and ohio valley toward the east
coast. At the leading edge of this airmass, a cold front extends
across the southeast. A cutoff upper low is located over the
arklatex region and will move slowly northeast over the next 24
hours. With a weak frontal wave developing to our west, moist
upglide will redevelop over the cold high and lead to another cad
event setting up by tonight. The forecast is complicated both by
the remarkably deep moisture producing a heavy rain threat, and
by temps being cold enough for some of that rain to change over
to sleet and or freezing rain early Thursday in parts of the area.

Pops this morning have been lowered somewhat with radar trends
indicating smaller chances of accumulating rain, though a mention
of isolated sprinkles has been added through midday. As upper
divergence increases with time, rain will spread back in from S to
n. Thick cloud cover will keep temps generally in the upper 30s over
the mountains and lower to mid 40s in the piedmont. Rainfall rates
and coverage increase more sharply late in the day through early
Thursday morning as strong isentropic lift develops in advance
of the frontal wave. Winds in this layer are progged to be as
strong as 70 kt, and ideally oriented for upslope lift along
the blue ridge escarpment as well. Pwat values again are fcst
to exceed the 90th percentile of climo. Runoff response from the
heavy rain earlier this week exceeded expectations, and with that
event priming hydrologic conditions ahead of this round, it is
appropriate that we are carrying a flood watch. Its extent looks
fine for now. QPF numbers will stick close to wpc values tonight,
with some minor adjustments made to timing.

Temps are expected to fall somewhat rapidly with the onset of
steady precipitation this afternoon and evening. We have the usual
challenge of deciding how far they will fall. Dewpoints will be
on the moist side, which will limit the wet-bulb temps. However,
it still looks likely that temps will be at or below freezing
tonight in a fairly contiguous area along and east of the blue
ridge, remaining there until late tomorrow morning. The warm nose
aloft will be a limiting factor for snow or sleet occurring at the
sfc. It is progged to be quite deep, at about 150 mb. Though models
disagree as to how warm temps get in that layer, in most areas
even a model blend would suggest the ice nuclei will melt. Thus
we will feature rain or freezing rain, depending on sfc temp,
except in a portion of the northern mtns where the temps aloft
still support some sleet. With our robust fcst QPF late tonight
and early tomorrow, any of the various methods we use to fcst
ice accretion result in warning-criteria numbers at elevations
above 2500 feet along the escarpment and in the adjacent ranges
(the balsams in particular). The northern mountains could result
with a notable amount of sleet, up to around an inch, though that
is of little impact compared to a heavy coat of ice. With a little
sleet possible, and more sleet expected in blacksburg's cwfa to our
north, we are upgrading the watch to a winter storm warning. This
will be in effect for all of our northern mountain zones, plus the
high elevations of the zones southwest of the black mountains. The
lower elevations of those zones, plus the northern foothills
and far NW piedmont, will receive a winter weather advisory for
lesser ice accumulations mainly causing travel issues. With some
ice possible on the ridges of far northern greenville county, the
greenville mountains zone is included in the advisory. One note:
while the elevation-split headlines are technically in effect for
all areas above 2500 feet in this event, the smoky mtn portion
of haywood county is not expected to see accumulating ice; the
warning was issued specifically to cover the balsams.

Precip will taper off from SW to NE Thursday morning, and by aftn
temps will warm into the upper 30s in the areas affected by the
ice sleet. The upper low will be to our west by then and low-level
flow will reorient to westerly along the mountain spine, setting
up for a northwest flow snow event later.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 300 am est Wednesday: short term begins Thursday night with
upper low lifting into the upper oh valley central appalachians, and
precip lifting north as well. At some point early in the period, as
the cold core upper low moves over the region and column winds shift
all W nwerly, topographic lift combined with increasing lapse rates
will result in a changeover from frozen to freezing precip, with the
event ending as a few hours of NW flow snow in the mountains. Snow
accums look pretty light given the lack of moisture depth in the
column, but a quick 0.5-1.5" certainly possible especially across
the northern mountains and maybe the smokies. Overnight lows with
the CAA will drop into the 20s across the mountains, near or below
freezing elsewhere. Decent day on Friday with the damming completely
scoured, and high temps rising markedly into the mid 50s in the
piedmont, still int eh 40s at higher elevations in the mountains.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
As of 100 am est Wednesday: quiet and generally dry through the
extended (a welcome change). This weekend looks exceptionally nice
(we'll deserve it for sure), with high pressure in place as a
(mainly) dry front sweeps through the midwest and oh valley.

Temperatures both Saturday and Sunday look to be flirting with 60
across the piedmont, overall just a few degrees below normal, with
nearly full Sun on Saturday. As the front approaches Sunday, should
see an increase in upper cloudiness, and guidance is squeezing a
little (slight chance) pops out over the mountains on Monday as the
front moves through. The steering shortwave will dissipate as the
system moves east, and the post-frontal CAA isn't too strong, but
still looking at a couple degree drop in temperatures Monday and
again on Tuesday

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
At kclt and elsewhere: a cold front will continue to ooze south
thru ga sc, leading to a low-level drying trend as high pressure
builds in to its north.VFR CIGS will remain toward the north,
with MVFR in the south nearer the front. Bands of drizzle or very
light rain will continue over the area thru the morning, but these
are unlikely to introduce any vsby restrictions. Warm upglide will
develop above the stalling front, and another cold-air damming event
will take place. Cad will dominate the pattern for the remainder of
the TAF period. Thus, deteriorating conditions are expected during
the afternoon, with ifr redeveloping at all sites and lingering
into Thursday morning. Heavy rain will occur tonight as cutoff low
moves into the tennessee valley, producing a very strong low-level
jet and moisture advection. This will bring a risk of llws, which
is mentioned at kclt and kavl where confidence is greatest. Within
the cad wedge early Thursday, temps will be cold enough for some
pl and or fzra to occur at higher elevations and in the NW nc
piedmont. Sfc temps are expected to remain just above freezing at
kavl and khky, but it looks to be a close call. Ra prevails in the
early morning but the wintry precip is mentioned in a prob30. Winds
will be N to NE and somewhat gusty this aftn tonight.

Outlook: the cad wedge will erode late Thursday. Some light
snow showers are possible along the tennessee border Thursday
night into Friday, and there is a small chance they will affect
kavl. Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected to return and last
into the weekend.

Confidence table...

11-17z 17-23z 23-05z 05-06z
kclt high 100% med 70% med 65% low 41%
kgsp high 83% med 75% med 70% low 48%
kavl high 89% high 80% med 70% med 71%
khky high 100% high 100% low 43% low 41%
kgmu high 89% med 75% med 75% med 65%
kand high 100% med 68% med 70% high 81%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 89 mi66 min N 5.1 G 7 48°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC11 mi56 minNNE 710.00 miLight Rain43°F32°F65%1029.5 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi56 minNE 510.00 miLight Rain43°F33°F69%1029.5 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC20 mi46 minNNE 1010.00 miLight Rain45°F35°F71%1030.1 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC24 mi43 minNE 510.00 miOvercast43°F34°F71%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from SVH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE4NE5NE5NE4NE3NE5NE4N6N5NE6NE8NE6N5NE7N7
1 day agoN3NE4N7N6NE9NE10N7N5NE6NE6N5NE6N5N5N3N3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4Calm
2 days agoN5E4CalmE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.