Thursday, March23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:24PM Thursday March 23, 2017 1:11 AM PDT (08:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:27AMMoonset 2:10PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ575 Pigeon Point To Point Pinos 10 To 60 Nm Offshore- 847 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday evening through late Thursday night...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 8 ft at 14 seconds. Rain in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 7 to 8 ft...increasing to 8 to 9 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft. Chance of showers.
PZZ500 847 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... High pressure off the southern california coast will weaken tonight resulting in decreasing northwest winds. The winds will become southerly and increase on Thursday a ahead of the next system. Winds will increase during the day Thursday. Winds will switch to the northwest Friday but another system may impact the waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
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location: 35.63, -123.73     debug

Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 230518
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1018 pm pdt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis Clearing and drying trend overnight through Thursday.

Widespread rainfall and stronger winds return to the northern
portion of the region late Thursday night and will spread
southward during the day Friday. Dry conditions return for most of
Saturday with another weather system forecast to push through
starting Sunday night into Monday.

Discussion As of 9:00 pm pdt Wednesday... As expected shower
activity quickly winding down as the Sun has set. Still a stray
shower or two on radar but those should end before midnight.

Thursday still looks on track to be our break day with some
sunshine and seasonably cool highs in the lower 60s.

00z NAM and GFS look on track with the next storm bringing rain
into the north bay about 24 hours from now. Then the front will
slowly shift southward Thursday night into Friday setting the
stage for a wet Friday morning commute. The rain wont reach the
central coast until Friday afternoon and evening but then drop
steady rains from the santa cruz mountains southward to the santa
lucia range of big sur as an upper wave and surface low develop
along the boundary and slow its southward progression. QPF numbers
remain on track as described below. Precip ends in the north bay
Friday night but showers linger from the golden gate southward
until about 12z Saturday.

Saturday looks to be a dry and cool day (not too different than we
are expecting for Thursday). Models have been hinting that the
next storm due to arrive late Sunday could be trending stronger as
well but the 00z GFS and ECMWF have not arrived. If the trends
hold true we'll see another cold and wet storm to wind out the
weekend and start the work week. The system looks cold with not as
much moisture as the Friday system. Behind that things should dry
out for a while.

Prev discussion As of 3:00 pm pdt Wednesday... Kmux radar shows
scattered showers continuing across our region -- especially for
the southern third of the cwa. Returns indicate a few moderate
cells so would expect a few are dropping small hail. Showers will
greatly diminish once the Sun GOES down, and additional
accumulations will mostly be under a tenth.

Dry weather will return for tonight through the majority of
Thursday before another system from the north moves through and
brings widespread rainfall back into the picture. Models have been
advertising this system for nearly a week and the latest guidance
has only slightly wavered from previous runs. Now looks like rain
will move into the north bay Thursday night, down to sf bay Friday
morning and to monterey bay starting around noon. However, the
main story will be the moderate to heavy band of rain associated
with a surface front that will go through later than the initial
round of rain. That band could produce high rain rates for a brief
period possibly leading to some urban and small stream issues. At
the same time southerly winds will be on the increase as the front
approaches. Gusts in many urban locations of 25 to 35 mph can be
expected. Values to 50 mph are possible above 1,500 feet. Guidance
has slightly trended downward so at this time do not expect to
issue wind advisories.

Rainfall amounts have only slightly changed from previous forecast
packages. Still looks that the best ivt numbers (and longest
duration) will focus on the north bay with widespread 1.5-3"
expected (locally 4+" for the north bay mountains). Similar values
can be expected for the sc mountains plus the santa lucias.

Around sf bay generally 2/3" to 1.5" is forecast with mostly less
than 2/3" from the santa clara valley southward.

Behind the front scattered showers are possible into early
Saturday. This will be followed quickly by another system that
will again move north-to-south late Saturday night through
Sunday. This feature will be the weakest of the week and rainfall
totals should be generally under 1/2" for most urban locations.

A ridge of high pressure will build behind that system and bring
warmer and drier conditions back to our region for most of next
week and possibly through the following week.

Aviation As of 10:30 pm pdt Wednesday... A fairly moist boundary
layer will allow scattered clouds to form overnight. Patchy MVFR cigs
possible through 16z.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. West winds 15-20 kt decreasing after 09z.

Sct020 12z-16z but cannot rule out a brief cig at bkn020.

Sfo bridge approach... Same as ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Low clouds over the hills will spill over
into mry and possibly sns through 15-16z.

Marine As of 08:50 pm pdt Wednesday... High pressure off the
southern california coast will weaken tonight resulting in
decreasing northwest winds. The winds will become southerly and
increase on Thursday a ahead of the next system. Winds will
increase during the day Thursday. Winds will switch to the
northwest Friday but another system may impact the waters on

Mtr watches/warnings/advisories
Tday Sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm until 3 am
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm until 3 am
sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 3 am
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm until 3 am
gla... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm from 9 am
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm until 9 am
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm from 3 pm
public forecast: rww
aviation: W pi
marine: W pi
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 99 mi49 min 56°F10 ft
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 99 mi81 min NW 19 G 23 55°F 56°F9 ft1020.7 hPa (+1.5)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey, Monterey Peninsula Airport, CA120 mi17 minW 1010.00 miOvercast53°F45°F74%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7S5SE4S95S4SE4SE4W4W8W11W9W10W14
1 day agoCalmS8S8SW7
2 days agoE3CalmE3SE3CalmE5E4E3NE4NW6NW3NW5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNW3NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.