Saturday, November17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:58PM Saturday November 17, 2018 8:52 AM PST (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:22PMMoonset 1:09AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ575 Waters From Pigeon Point To Point Pinos 10-60 Nm- 214 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..S winds around 5 kt...becoming sw this afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog this morning.
Tonight..SE winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds and S around 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell around 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun night..S winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell around 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 4 ft and S around 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and S around 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 6 ft and S around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft and S around 2 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ500 214 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Generally light winds will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Southerly winds will increase somewhat by mid- week as an upper trough approaches the region. Mixed moderate northwest swell and a light southerly swell will persist.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
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location: 35.63, -123.73     debug

Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 171226
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
426 am pst Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis Widespread smoke and haze at times combining with
coastal fog resulting in extended poor air quality and low
visibilities over the san francisco bay area should show some
improvement first along the immediate coast today then inland
Sunday. A mid to upper level ridge has weakened and troughing is
already slowly moving in from the west this morning. Additionally
forecast models continue to indicate an active pacific weather
pattern reaching california next week with the potential for
widespread periodic rainfall starting Wednesday and continuing
through the latter part of the work week.

Discussion As of 4:12 am pst Saturday... Smoke, haze and
coastal fog, some of it patchy dense fog with visibilities under
1 4 mile, will combine to keep visibilities low this morning; air
quality remains poorest in the bay area. Forecast highs were
lowered a few degrees for today from the south bay to the north
central coast due to a chilly start, increasing cloud cover,
lingering smoke and haze, thus in these areas temperatures may
struggle to reach 60f. Stagnant weather continues as a well
entrenched albeit much weaker offshore wind pattern remains in
place unable to break down as a weaker mid november Sun angle and
feeble diurnal warming over land just can't get a foot hold of any
kind to generate a decent sea-breeze. Awaiting changes in the mid
latitude westerly flow is what is needed to dislodge this pattern,
and the early stages of it is already on our door step.

A weak 500 mb trough is approx 400 miles west of the CWA with a
925 mb elevated cool front approaching our coastal waters today;
elevated fronts typically are weak, but overall cooling and its
proximity could cause patch or two of drizzle along the big sur
coast today based on the hrrr output which is the only model
showing any qpf. Otherwise this feature remains out of reach to
generate anything more than cloud cover and advancing higher
dewpoint air eastward generating morning coastal fog as we are
seeing in the observations and on satellite imagery early this
morning. Wind flow remains light today.

The next system upstream over the eastern pacific is a 500 mb closed
low which weakens as it reaches socal Tuesday. Much earlier model
output had this spun up as a leading early week rain generator for
us, but this is not the case anymore. However, it'll give traction
to a wind reversal which will greatly help clear up the air and
improve air quality if not already begun so first on the coastline
by later today and then inland Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF have been
otherwise consistent that this system will dry out by the time it
reaches socal.

As maritime polar air settles southward to vicinity of 40 degrees
latitude over the north pacific next week the door will generously
open to wet weather here in california. Increasing moisture from
the subtropical latitudes may get ingested into these low pressure
systems based on the 00z output (and earlier output) GFS integrated
water vapor transport forecasts. Much unlike winter season 2017-2018
with large, ongoing meridional displacement, next week's weather at
least shows characteristics more closely to zonal flow. An ongoing
relatively large northern hemispheric wavenumber and somewhat
distorted polar vortex remain favorable for storm generation with
winter solstice still a bit more than 1 month away. Recent GFS and
ecmwf 240 hour forecast rain accumulation totals have suggested
totals could for the most part reverse early season rain deficits
in our CWA and this of course would greatly alleviate fire weather

Aviation As of 04:26 pm pst Saturday... For 12z tafs. A
combination of widespread smoke and haze with patchy coastal fog
and stratus is affecting the region this morning bringing MVFR ifr
vis and or cigs. Expect patchy fog stratus to continue into late
this morning for the monterey TAF sites and possibly in the north
bay. Latest run of the hrrr smoke model suggests some improvement
in smoke late this afternoon and into this evening. This may
result in somewhat improved visibilities tonight. However,
forecast models suggest more widespread stratus development
tonight into Sunday. Generally light winds through the period.

Vicinity of ksfo... Ifr MVFR vis due to wildfire smoke. Slant range
vis issues will persist. Latest hrrr smoke model suggests some
improvement late this afternoon and tonight. More widespread low
clouds are expected tonight. Winds will remain light through the

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... MVFR vis with MVFR ifr CIGS due to a
combination of smoke and stratus fog. Lifr vis from fog will be
possible until around 16z. An early return of the marine layer is
forecast for tonight. Generally light winds.

Marine As of 02:14 am pst Saturday... Generally light winds
will continue through the weekend and into early next week.

Southerly winds will increase somewhat by mid- week as an upper
trough approaches the region. Mixed moderate northwest swell and a
light southerly swell will persist.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday None.

Public forecast: canepa
aviation: as
marine: as
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 99 mi63 min 58°F 61°F6 ft1016.8 hPa (+1.5)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 100 mi53 min 63°F6 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA120 mi59 minN 00.25 miFog47°F45°F93%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmNW3NW4NW6W5NW5NW7N3SW5S3CalmS3NE3E3CalmE3SE3E3E3E3E6E8E3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmSW4W3CalmNW5W3CalmSE3E5E6E5E4E3E4CalmE5E5E4E3E5E4E4Calm
2 days agoE6W5SW7SW7W7CalmNW4CalmCalmE3E4E5E8CalmE7E4E4E3E5CalmE4CalmE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.