Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:18PM Saturday March 17, 2018 9:15 PM PDT (04:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 6:48PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ576 Point Pinos To Point Piedras Blancas 10 To 60 Nm Offshore- 843 Pm Pdt Sat Mar 17 2018
Tonight..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers late in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft. SWell sw 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft. SWell sw 5 to 7 ft. Rain, then rain likely.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft. SWell sw 5 to 7 ft. Chance of showers.
PZZ500 843 Pm Pdt Sat Mar 17 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Weak high pressure off the california coast will bring light northwest winds through Sunday. Winds will shift to southerly on Sunday night and increase Monday and Tuesday as a deep low tracks northeast across the offshore waters. Gale force winds or gusts is possible Tuesday with large mixed swells.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
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location: 35.63, -123.73     debug

Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 172358
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
458 pm pdt Sat mar 17 2018

Synopsis Showers will continue to move across the region today
with the potential for a few thunderstorms through the afternoon. Look
for showers to diminish this evening. Dry and slightly warmer
conditions are likely Sunday into Monday ahead of our next storm
system that will bring widespread rainfall to the region Tuesday
through Thursday of the upcoming week.

Discussion As of 2:00 pm pdt Saturday... A broad 540dm 500mb
upper trough beginning to ease its way out of california today,
but not before generating a substantial amount of convection
across the region. An air mass boundary set up approximately 10 to
30 miles offshore and remained there through the morning, leading
to intensification of storm cells along this boundary, including
numerous right moving storm cells with decent mid to upper level
rotation. These cells may have produced hail up to or exceeding
half an inch over the waters and even a water spout, however,
it is very difficult to confirm with remote sensing and no human
observers that far offshore. As of around 1pm, the bulk of the
convection is now shifting onshore as this offshore boundary mixes
out and daytime heating picks up. Numerous reports of small hail
and brief heavy downpours have been reported across the area early
this afternoon as this has occurred. Look for these showers to
gradually transition farther inland and southward (following a
similar track of the base of the trough) through the afternoon
before exiting the region entirely by this evening.

For tonight, low confidence overall on how much clearing out the
region will experience as more moisture than previously modeled
is now expected to linger near the surface. This will lead to a
few to scattered low to mid level clouds through the early part of
the night at 1000-2000 ft, which complicates the forecast.

Temperatures are unlikely to cool quite as much as they would have
with otherwise clear skies, so freeze and frost becomes
increasingly unlikely. Instead, fog for inland valleys becomes
more likely, especially given this mornings preview of dense fog
at santa rosa that will closely represent the environment expected
over a wider area tonight. As much, have introduced patchy dense
fog to north bay, east bay valleys, portions of the southern santa
clara valley, and the salinas valley. Can not rule out frost
popping up in a few localized areas that are able to cool more
than their surroundings.

Dry weather with clearer skies are forecast for Sunday and Monday,
meaning warming daytime temps and cooler nights.

Forecast models show an upper low coupled with a deep subtropical
moisture tap impacting the state mid week next week. Models still
disagree on the positioning and amplitude of this moisture plume,
however, it is clear that the main impacts will be felt in the
locations at the center of this narrow band of very moist air.

Latest model runs continue to show that the area from big sur
southward to santa barbara will take the brunt of this subtropical
moisture plume, with a fair amount of model to model disagreement
regarding the positioning and intensity of this plume, which
aligns similarly with previous runs. That said, all areas can
expect to see wet, unsettled weather as this storm system comes
ashore beginning on Tuesday. Rain will initially be light through
the day Tuesday as the warm sector comes ashore but will
transition to become heavier and more focused as storms cold front
begins to interact with the subtropical moisture plume ahead of
it. Any forecast precipitation amounts given now will likely
change as the system comes into better focus, however, expect most
urban areas to pick up 1-2 inches of rain, while 3 to 8 are
possible over the higher terrain (especially big sur). Moderate to
locally strong south to southwest winds will also accompay the
arrival of the cold front later Wednesday, with sustained winds
of 15 to 30 mph, and gusts 35 to 55 mph (strongest winds at
favored locations such as higher terrain, coastline, and favored
valleys). Given the trajectory and nature of the air masses
involved with this storm system (tropical versus arctic),
temperatures will be mild versus the month of unsettled weather,
leading to much higher snow levels.

Aviation As of 4:55 pm pdt Saturday... Radar indicates showers
are popping up over the area as afternoon convection is in full
swing. The only thunderstorm has been in the far north bay so it
is unlikely to impact the sfo bay area terminals. Showers diminish
after sunset. Residual low level moisture may allow patchy MVFR
cigs to develop after 12z.

Vicinity of ksfo... Scattered showers through 03z. Possible MVFR
cigs after 12z. Any CIGS that develop will be patchy in nature and
should burn off after 16z.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Shower activity has been north and east
of the area this afternoon. Cannot rule out a stray shower into
mry or sns through 03z. OtherwiseVFR.

Marine As of 04:48 pm pdt Saturday... Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will end by this evening. Clearing skies with light
to moderate winds tonight. Winds will increase early next week as
a storm system approaches the region. The sea state will
deteriorate middle of next week with gusty winds and a mixed

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday None.

Public forecast: drp
aviation: W pi
marine: mm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 99 mi46 min 55°F7 ft
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 99 mi86 min NNW 14 G 16 53°F 55°F7 ft1017.9 hPa (+0.8)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA120 mi22 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy49°F41°F74%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4S5S5CalmE7SE5SE7SE4E53E5E8E9Calm4W5SW14
1 day agoS4S7S8SE9SW8CalmSE7S4S4S7S5W5CalmSW8S5SW11W13W8W12W11
2 days agoCalmSW5W9W76W4W3CalmE5E5SE7SE7E5S4SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.