Sunday, December16, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:55PM Sunday December 16, 2018 7:14 PM PST (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ576 Waters From Point Pinos To Point Piedras Blancas 10-60 Nm- 229 Pm Pst Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt...becoming nw 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft this evening... Becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 15 to 20 ft at 21 seconds... Building to 20 to 22 ft at 21 seconds after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 20 to 22 ft at 20 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 17 to 19 ft at 18 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 13 to 14 ft at 18 seconds.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 12 to 14 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 11 to 13 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 15 to 17 ft.
Thu..NW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 to 13 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 to 11 ft. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
PZZ500 229 Pm Pst Sun Dec 16 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Strong and gusty southerly winds associated with a frontal system moving through the coastal waters will result in steep fresh swell and hazardous sea conditions through this evening. Winds will then diminish in wake of the frontal passage tonight. A very large, long period wnw swell will continue to move into the coastal waters, with significantly building seas by this evening through Monday morning. The swell will taper off late Monday into Tuesday, however, a different large northwest swell train builds Wednesday into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
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location: 35.63, -123.73     debug

Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 170018
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
418 pm pst Sun dec 16 2018

Synopsis A potent system will push through a cold front and a
band of moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening.

Expect strong gusty winds out of the south ahead of frontal
passage. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible in the
wake of the front, followed by clearing and drying conditions on
Monday. Large waves will be impacting the coastline late Sunday
through Tuesday. A weak system may skirt the northern portions of
the area on Tuesday, but conditions will largely dry out through
the middle of next week.

Discussion As of 01:14 pm pst Sunday... A broad and deep upper
level trough continues to move towards the coast, with gusty winds
continuing and a round of moderate to heavy rainfall set to move
through late this afternoon and evening. Light to moderate rain
has fallen across the north bay since last night, where rainfall
totals have ranged from 1-2 inches in the mountains and generally
less than half an inch in the valleys. There has been a strong
north to south gradient in terms of rainfall totals observed across
sonoma county, with northern portions receiving the most rain
while the southern third has only picked up a few hundredths in
the valleys.

A band of moderate to heavy rain will move through from northwest
to southeast this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold
front, with scattered showers ahead of this band. The band should
reach the greater bay area by mid afternoon and push southeast to
monterey bay by early this evening. Overall the heavier rain
should be short-lived but ponding of water on roadways is possible
late this afternoon through this evening. Showers will decrease
behind the front, ending near sf bay by about midnight and moving
out of the central coast early Monday morning. Expected rainfall
totals haven't changed much from the previous forecast, with 0.5
to 1.25 inches in the urban areas from the golden gate south and
1-3 inches in the higher terrain. The north bay will see an
additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches on top of what has already fallen,
with locally higher amounts in the mountains.

South to southeast winds this afternoon ahead of the cold front
are gusty at the coast and in the hills with gusts in the 30-40
mph range, locally up to 50 mph in the highest terrain, and breezy
elsewhere with gusts 20-30 mph. Winds will veer to the west and
decrease rapidly after the frontal passage. Left isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast as there remains some weak
instability this evening along and behind the cold front. The
potential for thunder is not high but some isolated locations
could hear a rumble of thunder. Additionally, as has been
advertised high surf will continue through Monday evening with
large breaking waves and very dangerous conditions on the beach.

See the beaches section below for more information on the hazards.

All areas should be dry by Monday morning as the trough departs to
the east and a shortwave ridge moves overhead. A disturbance will
ride over the top of the ridge on Tuesday, producing significant
rainfall well to our north, but leaving our area mostly dry. Areas
to the north of the golden gate may see some light showers on
Tuesday and Tuesday night, but likely amounting to no more than a
few hundredths of measurable precip.

The ridge will then amplify Wednesday through Thursday, keeping
conditions dry and allowing temperatures to warm several degrees.

Some of our southern inland locations could be approaching 70
degrees these days. Another weak system is expected to move
through the area Thursday night but largely fall apart.

Temperatures will cool a few degrees heading into next weekend.

The long range pattern appears to remain fairly active, with
periodic chances of rain late next weekend into early next week.

Aviation As of 04:15 pm pst Sunday... A cold frontal boundary
is moving across the san francisco and monterey bay areas this
afternoon and will continue to do so through the remainder of the
day. Breezy prefrontal winds, post frontal wind shifts, moderate
to brief heavy rainfall, temporary reductions in visibility down
to the 2-4 sm range, and ceilings down to 2500-3500 feet
(generally) are all expected as this occurs. Gradually improving
conditions overnight with widespreadVFR expected by no later than mid
morning tomorrow.

Vicinity of ksfo... Deteriorating conditions as frontal boundary
approaches over the next few hours, then gradually improving
conditions overnight into Monday morning. Generally MVFR today
with periods of ifr visibility during heaviest rain. Breezy south
to southwest winds with a seldom gust into the mid 20s ahead of
the front.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Light rain has begun to move into the
area ahead of the main front. Expect gradually lowering ceilings
and an increase in rain intensity through the remainder of the
daylight hours. Improving conditions overnight into Monday

Beaches As of 09:45 am pst Sunday... Dangerous conditions are
expected today and Monday as very large surf impacts the
coastline. Long period forerunners will arrive this morning
increasing the risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. The period
will diminish as the swell height increase through the day today
before peaking this evening through early Monday. Peak swells of
17 to 21 ft at 19 to 21 seconds will be possible. Buoy 006 SE papa
is currently showing the swell train moving through - swell 30 ft
at 19 secs. Jason satellite waveheight data shows wave heights of
36-38 feet. Large breaking waves of 25 to 40 ft will be possible
at west and northwest facing locations, with breakers up to or
exceeding 50 ft at favored break points along the coast today. A
high surf warning remains in effect through 9 pm Monday along the
entire coastline.

Marine As of 09:45 am pst Sunday... Strong and gusty southerly
winds will persist through the morning ahead of an approaching
frontal system leading to steep fresh swell and hazardous sea
conditions. A very large, long period wnw swell will begin to move
into the coastal waters this morning, with significantly building
seas by this evening through Monday morning. The swell will taper
off late Monday into Tuesday, however, a different large
northwest swell train builds Wednesday into Thursday.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt High surf warning... Entire coastline
sca... Mry bay
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm
sca... Rough bar advisory for sf bar
sca... Sf bay until 6 pm
public forecast: st
aviation: drp
marine: rgass
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 99 mi84 min 60°F 60°F9 ft1017.9 hPa (-0.6)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 100 mi74 min 60°F9 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA120 mi20 minN 04.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist57°F54°F90%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE4E4E4E6E4E6E6CalmE4E4E6CalmE8E5E3W3NE3CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3E3E4E6E4SE3E8E4E7E4E8E4E7E5CalmNW5W5NW3NW5CalmCalmE4CalmCalm
2 days agoE3E4E3E5SE4SE4CalmW5E43CalmE3E6CalmCalmS16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.