Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Moncure, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:26PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:05 PM EDT (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:06AMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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location: 35.63, -79.09     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 291548
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1148 am edt Mon may 29 2017

An unsettled pattern associated with cyclonic flow aloft will
persist through mid-week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1130 am edt Monday...

a plume of enhanced 925-850 mb moisture advecting into central nc
from the W SW amidst strong insolation and modest mid-level lapse
rates (~6.0c km) is expected to yield 1000-1500 j kg MLCAPE with no
cinh by peak heating this afternoon. W regard to forcing, numerous
perturbations were noted in wsw flow aloft upstream of the carolinas
at 15z. A series of the aforementioned disturbances are progged to
track ene across the carolinas this aft eve into tonight. In the
lower levels, a developing thermal trough over the nc piedmont this
afternoon should help serve as a focus for development once cinh has
eroded, particularly if a weak broad low forms over central sc nc as
some of the latest 12z guidance suggests.

With the above in mind, expect convection to develop across the W sw
piedmont by late afternoon. Given an environment characterized by
steep low-level lapse rates (0-3km ~8c km) and moderate dcape (~1000
j kg) in a westerly flow regime, it seems likely that convection
will grow upscale along outflow and propagate east across central nc
by late evening (~03z), with the relative best chance along south of
hwy 64. Additional convection is progged to develop over southwest
nc upstate sc (upstream of the initial activity) this evening as
additional disturbances in wsw flow aloft track across a moist
conditionally unstable airmass in place over the region. As a
result, it is possible that convection could persist past midnight
into the 06-09z time-frame, primarily along south of hwy 64. Deep
layer shear and moderate destabilization will be sufficient for
supercellular organization with initial activity that develops this
aft eve, with a primary threat of damaging winds and severe hail
(the latter of which may be tempered by modest mid-level lapse
rates). With steep low-level lapse rates and moderate dcape expected
this afternoon, activity is likely to grow upscale along outflow
with time. This suggests the primary severe threat will transition
to damaging winds late this afternoon and early evening.

Expect highs ranging from the mid 80s far NW piedmont to lower 90s
sandhills and SE coastal plain. Lows tonight in the 60s, coolest
n NW and warmest S se. -vincent

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
As of 235 am Monday...

Lower chance of showers storms as moisture shifts toward the

Tuesday and Tuesday night: as the mid upper trough lifts out, the
main surface boundary trough will drift SE closer to the coast
Tuesday. This being a main focus for scattered storms, it will mean
the highest chance of showers storms will shift toward the coast,
with limited, if any activity expected over the western areas. Some
drier air will mix down from the mid levels and weak high pressure
over the appalachians will bring some drying in the low levels into
the piedmont. All this suggests a low chance of showers storms,
mainly over the coastal plain Tuesday afternoon early evening, with
only isolated activity elsewhere. Partly sunny skies are expected
over the piedmont, with a bit lower temperatures and humidities from
previous days. Dew points should fall into the upper 50s over the nw
piedmont, but range into the upper 60s se. Actual highs are expected
in the lower to mid 80s nw, ranging into the upper 80s se. QPF of
0.25 or less expected, generally along and east of i-95. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the 60s, except some upper 50s nw.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 345 am edt Monday...

medium range model guidance continue to advertise a weak cold
front surface trough moving across central nc late Wednesday into
Wednesday night as the main mid level trough axis swings through the
area. This will lead to a late day evening chance slight chance of
seeing some showers and storms. High temps in advance of the front
should generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few
locations toughing 90 across the south.

Weak high pressure will move across the area on Thursday, before a
moist southerly return flow develops on Friday. Mid upper level flow
will amplify again across the great lakes northeast u.S., helping
to drive a cold front south and eastward into the area late Saturday
into Sunday. This will result in above normal chances for precip and
a decrease in high temps.

Aviation 18z Monday through Friday
As of 1145 am edt Monday...

24-hr TAF period:VFR conditions will prevail through mid to late
afternoon at all terminals. Sub-vfr conditions associated with
scattered convection are expected late this afternoon and evening,
primarily at southern eastern terminals (fay rdu rwi) with the
relative best potential at the fay terminal. Convection could
persist past midnight (into the 06-09z time frame), though once
again it would appear that southern eastern terminals are more
likely to be affected. In areas that experience rain, a short period
of ifr lifr ceilings or fog could develop prior to sunrise if skies
clear, though whether or not this will occur remains difficult to
ascertain at this time.

Looking ahead: aside from a potential for isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening convection associated with cyclonic flow aloft
over the region, expectVFR conditions to generally prevail through
mid to late week. -vincent

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Vincent
near term... Vincent
short term... Badgett
long term... Bsd cbl
aviation... Vincent

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC3 mi66 minWSW 310.00 miFair82°F62°F52%1014.6 hPa
Chapel Hill, Williams Airport, NC21 mi70 minVar 610.00 miFair82°F63°F53%1014.4 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC24 mi75 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds84°F64°F53%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from TTA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW3W11W11W8W6SW6W8CalmCalmSW5W4CalmW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W4CalmW4W3
1 day agoSW7SW7SW5
2 days agoW8W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.