Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Moncure, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:03PM Thursday August 17, 2017 11:14 AM EDT (15:14 UTC) Moonrise 1:12AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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location: 35.63, -79.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 171508
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1105 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
A surface low pressure trough will extend from western north
carolina through south carolina today through tonight. This trough
will shift northeastward late tonight, hold over the piedmont of
north carolina Friday, then shift east to the i-95 corridor on
Saturday.

Near term today through tonight
As of 1105 am Thursday...

the latest surface analysis shows a weak surface trough extending
north to south across the western piedmont of the carolina's into
central georgia with a weak low center on the trough near the nc sc
border. The backdoor cold front across the mid atlantic marking the
leading edge of an air mass with dew points in the the 50s across
parts of pa and ny has begun lifting north as a warm front. A low-
level southerly flow has developed across the area allowing both
surface and deeper layer moisture to surge north. Dew points at 10
range from 82 at kmeb, 81 at kgsb, and 80 at ctz to 77 at krdu and
krwi, and 76 at kgso. Analyzed precipitable water values have
rebounded into 1.9 to 2.2 range this morning.

Expect today to be more convectively active than yesterday with a
couple of potential bouts and clusters of storms. Once area of
showers moving across southern va and far northern nc near the lakes
appears to be driven in a region of isentropic lift moisture
advection atop the 500 hpa short wave ridge across the area.

More importantly, additional scattered showers and storms will
develop early this afternoon across the eastern piedmont and
sandhills in a region instability is expected to be maximized and
coincident with moisture convection. Additional convection may move
into central nc from the west late this afternoon and early this
evening as mid-level troughing approaches from the west.

Low level thickness values today are a handful of meters greater
than yesterday which would support highs of 89-95 this afternoon.

Crazy high dew points will push heat index values into the 97 to 103
range today with values of 100-103 over the sandhills. Warm and
continued very muggy lows tonight of 71-77 under partly cloudy skies
with patchy fog. -blaes

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 345 am Thursday...

weak mid level height falls will continue into Fri as a shortwave
trough pivots from michigan SE ontario through the st lawrence
valley, with a weaker broad reflection down through the southern
appalachians. The piedmont trough will strengthen and shift slightly
eastward through Fri night, with plentiful low level moisture
remaining in place over central nc (especially along and east of the
surface trough), pw over 2.0", and passage of weak perturbations
within the gently cyclonic southwesterly mid level flow. Under these
conditions, convection should start early, in the morning (as soon
as the surface-based inversion mixes out), over the coastal plain
and eastern piedmont sandhills. Additional convection is likely by
afternoon just to our W and nw, over the appalachians, and this
should slide eastward later in the day, bringing a second peak in
shower and storm coverage over central nc during the evening and
early overnight hours. Expect plenty of clouds near and soon after
daybreak, perhaps briefly breaking up with mixing, mainly over the
southwest, before broken to overcast skies redevelop quickly with
heating. Highs 89-95 with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect a
good chance of showers storms in the evening, decreasing and
shifting southeast overnight as the surface trough kicks east toward
the coast with a weak surface high building into W nc from the west.

Lows from 70 NW to 76 se. -gih

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 335 am Thursday...

a strong low pressure system moving north of the great lakes will
move eastward and drag a cold front across the carolinas on Friday
and Friday night before stalling out near the carolina coast. This
will keep precip chances in the forecast for Friday and but should
confine things to the extreme southeastern portions of the area by
Friday night. With the leftovers hanging around for much of the
weekend expect eastern areas to maintain higher precip chances
through much of the weekend. As the weekend comes to a close,
continental high pressure will move in from the northwest which
could help to lower precip chances by Sunday afternoon evening.

Interesting forecast for the eclipse on Monday with models starting
to come into agreement with zonal flow aloft and surface high
pressure sitting right off of the carolina coast. The positioning of
the high pressure will most likely yield moist return flow around
the back side of the high which unfortunately would most likely lead
to at least partial cloud cover for Monday afternoon. That being
said, the GFS solution is interesting that it lags the continental
high back to the west a little bit and if that happens it could
potentially suppress cloud cover to the south. Still way too early
tell but at least a partly cloudy forecast looks likely.

For midweek return flow around the high will continue, bringing
daily precip chances with another surface low well to the north that
may bring another front through the area by later on Wednesday.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 640 am Thursday...

ifr lifr conditions will persist for another couple of hours over
the northeast portions of the forecast area, including rwi, where
cigs and vsbys will slowly lift toVFR through 15z. Elsewhere,
isolated pockets of MVFR fog will linger until around 13z. After
late morning,VFR conditions will then dominate through the day,
although scattered showers and storms generating a period of sub-vfr
conditions and erratic winds will be possible at each site, mainly
18z-00z.VFR conditions should prevail this evening into tonight,
although MVFR fog may develop starting around 05z. Winds will be
light and variable this morning, becoming mostly from the south by
midday, at 6-10 kts this afternoon diminishing to 3-6 kts starting
this evening. There is a good chance of MVFR fog at all sites 06z-
12z.

Looking beyond 12z fri, after the light fog lifts,VFR conditions
are expected after 13z. But scattered showers and storms are
expected, mainly mid afternoon through mid evening fri, with the
greatest coverage impacting rdu rwi fay. Additional isolated storms
remain possible through Fri night, with a chance for sub-vfr
fog stratus. Best shower storm chances shift to our SE for Sat into
mon, withVFR conditions prevailing, although fay may continue to
see a storm threat. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Blaes
short term... Hartfield
long term... Ellis
aviation... Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC3 mi25 minWSW 510.00 miFair87°F75°F68%1017.3 hPa
Chapel Hill, Williams Airport, NC21 mi19 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds86°F75°F72%1017.1 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC24 mi24 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F65%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from TTA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5NW3NW5N6N4CalmE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoCalmSW3SW6W6W8W8W4W5CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N4
2 days agoE3CalmS4CalmCalmE4CalmE4N7NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.