Sunday, December16, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Moncure, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:07PM Sunday December 16, 2018 9:35 PM EST (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:20PMMoonset 12:43AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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location: 35.63, -79.09     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 170110
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
810 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

High pressure over the central plains will gradually build east,
reaching the mid-atlantic states by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 810 pm Sunday...

the back-edge of the broken overcast stratocu cloud deck, associated
with the vertically stacked low moving off the mid-atlantic
seaboard, will exit the far eastern coastal plain zones in the next
hour or two. Otherwise, low-level dry air advection in the wake of
the departing low will finally lead to 100% clearing overnight.

Accompanying weak CAA will help govern overnight lows. Lows tonight
ranging from mid upper 30s NW to lower 40s se.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 115 pm Sunday...

a dry cold front is expected to pass through the state Monday.

Highs in the upper 50s and 60s on Monday will lower by about
10 degrees or so Tuesday. This occurs as surface high pressure
builds from the upper midwest toward the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night with a fresh cp air mass. Lows Tuesday will
fall back into the upper 20s to mid 30s NW to se, highs Tuesday
only upper 40s to lower 50s, and lows Tuesday night will be in the
mid 20s to lower 30s. There may be some high cloudiness by late
Tuesday and Tuesday night, but most likely not thick enough to
impede excellent radiational cooling of the very dry air mass

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 1245 pm Sunday...

the dry high pressure is expected to remain in control through much
of Wednesday and Wednesday night. However, as the high pressure
moves offshore late Wednesday and Wednesday night, another storm
system is expected to bring increasing rain chances by Thursday. The
return flow from the ese on Wednesday will bring increasing clouds
and milder temperatures. Highs Wednesday should be mostly in the
50s, with around 60 se. Milder temperatures with the cloudiness
Wednesday night will bring lows well above freezing. Expect lower to
mid 40s.

Late Wednesday night through Saturday: yet another widespread rain
is expected mainly Thursday into early Friday as it appears now.

The medium range models are in general agreement in the main surface
storm track from the southern plains ene to near the lower ohio
valley or central appalachians by 12z Friday. The parent high
pressure will exit offshore with plenty of WAA into the system
Thursday. This will bring an all rain event for our region for this
storm. Another in-situ cad event is expected over our piedmont
damming region; however, the warm air will overwhelm most of the
region Thursday and Thursday night as the storm track to our west
will ensure. Regardless, some 40s should linger until Thursday night
in the piedmont, while temperatures surge in the east and south into
the 50s 60s Thursday and Thursday night. Just as with this past
system, areas of low stratus and fog will accompany the rain.

The amount of rain or QPF will be tied to the timing or length of
time the significant rain falls. Models suggest a hard to
forecast time a mid upper level dry slot racing NE into the se
states including nc as early as Thursday night. However, some model
solutions indicate additional rain QPF with the mid upper low Friday
and Friday night for portions of nc. These finer details will be
nailed down in later model runs. For now, we will continue to carry
likely pop Thursday and Thursday night, dropping somewhat to high
chance Friday into Friday evening - until the cold front comes
through. Another storm total of 0.5 to 1.5 appears likely, but may
be on the lower end of the dry slot arrives late Thursday night and
Friday. Mild temperatures will cool to near normal by next weekend
with drier - but pacific air.

Aviation 23z Sunday through Friday
As of 615 pm Sunday...

24 hour TAF period:VFR conditions are expected to persist over the
next 24 hours. Skies, cluttered a bit by clouds associated with the
the departing upper-level low, will continue to clear tonight,
remaining skc through the day Monday. Wind will slowly diminish
during the overnight hours, settling in the 3 to 6kt range out of
the west northwest with some variability possible. Winds will likely
shift slightly during the day Monday, become predominantly
northwesterly with periodic gustiness possible.

Looking ahead:VFR conditions expected to persist through Wednesday
ahead of our next weather system, likely to bring a return to sub-
vfr conditions, for Thursday and Friday.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Cbl
short term... Badgett
long term... Badgett
aviation... Jjm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC3 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair51°F42°F72%1015.2 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC24 mi44 minW 510.00 miFair50°F42°F74%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from TTA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6SW6W3SW4SW7W7W9
1 day agoCalmN4NW4N4N3N5N5NW4NW4CalmN3CalmNE6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmSW4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmNE3CalmNE5CalmNE4NE4NE4NE6NE6NE5NE5NE4NE5NE7NE5NE3NE3NE3N3N3N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.