Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:25 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 281813 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 210 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure should remain off the southeast United States through mid-week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 210 PM Sunday...

High pressure is currently centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Although the radar remains clear, widespread diurnal cumulus developed during the late morning and seems to have reached a steady state early this afternoon. Cloud cover decreases rapidly north of I-40/85 from the Triad to the Triangle and along US-64 east of Raleigh. The cloud cover should persist through much of the afternoon before dissipating. Despite the cloud cover, southwesterly flow should allow most locations to top out around 80 degrees.
Southwest wind around 5 mph will continue overnight along with minimal cloud cover.



SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 305 AM Sunday...

The upper level ridge will slowly progress eastward to along the East Coast Mon/Mon night as a s/w moves eastward through the lower/mid MS Valley and into the TN Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain off the Southeast US coast and continue to ridge wnwwd into the Carolinas through Mon night. The weather should remain dry through Mon night. Sunny to mostly sunny skies Mon should give way to some increasing cloudiness from the west late Mon night.
Temperatures should increase a couple/few degrees from today/tonight and remain well above normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 400 AM Sunday...

Warm, with limited, scattered precipitation chances confined mainly to late Tue-Wed and again Sat.

A shortwave perturbation now digging across wrn NV will have assumed neutral tilt and reached the mid-South and Middle/wrn TN vicinity by 12Z Tue. This feature will be slightly preceded by a banner of convectively-generated/enhanced vorticity forecast to extend from the lwr Great Lakes through ern OH Valley and GA, related to an extensive QLCS now stretching from IL to TX. The two will move across the srn Appalachians late Tue and the srn Middle Atlantic Tue night-Wed. In their wake, mid-level ridging will expand and strengthen from the Gulf of Mexico newd across and offshore the South and Middle Atlantic Thu-Fri. Another mid-level trough, at the base of a cyclone forecast to deepen while pivoting across the upr MS Valley and upr Great Lakes, will probably move across the Carolinas Fri night-Sat.

At the surface, on the wrn periphery high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas, a pre-frontal/lee trough will move into a mean position over the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont late Tue through Wed.
Canadian high pressure will build down the Middle Atlantic coast with associated anticyclonic flow but limited cooling into cntl NC Thu. Renewed lee troughing will develop and spread across the Piedmont Fri-Sat.

The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will feature above average temperatures throughout the forecast period, with highs in the 80s and lows in the upr 50s to lwr-mid 60s. The relative best chance of rain/convection will result Tue afternoon- evening, especially over the Piedmont where diurnal timing of the aforementioned shortwave and surface troughs will be maximized, perhaps lingering in the Coastal Plain Wed, with the slow passage of the aforementioned shortwave perturbation there. The next at or above climo chance of rain should then accompany the approach and passage of the following mid-level trough late Fri-Sat.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 105 PM Sunday...

TAF period: There is widespread coverage of diurnal cumulus today, and cannot rule out the potential for an isolated MVFR ceiling considering cloud bases are generally between 3000 and 5000 ft.
Clouds should scatter out around sunset. Although FAY went LIFR this morning with abundant low-level moisture, do not see enough consistency from model soundings to include any restrictions in the upcoming forecast. Similarly, while RWI does show some minimal low level moisture, also do not have confidence to include any restrictions there. Winds should remain consistently out of the southwest through the period, with daytime wind around 8-10 kt plus an occasional gust and overnight wind around 5 kt.

Outlook: There is a chance of restrictions with showers at INT/GSO on Tuesday and RDU/FAY/RWI on Wednesday. Otherwise the extended period appears to be VFR with dry conditions.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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