Monday, March18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Moncure, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:27PM Monday March 18, 2019 11:39 AM EDT (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:49PMMoonset 4:56AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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location: 35.63, -79.09     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 181520
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1120 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

Weak low pressure will track east across northern nc today, then
offshore early tonight. Continental polar high pressure will follow
and extend across the middle atlantic states through Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1120 am Monday...

after a frosty start to the day which saw early morning low
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s, late morning
temperatures had rebounded into the 50-55 degree range across much
of central nc. The exception was in the vicinity of the va border
where temperatures in the upper 40s were common. The 12z gso
sounding depicts a very dry air mass with precip water values around
a quarter of an inch. Upper air analysis depicts a l W trough over
the eastern u.S. Which will undergo some amplification during the
next 24-36 hours. This amplification will be initiated by a decent
s W currently exiting the lower oh valley and will cross near or
just north of our region later this afternoon. Forcing lift
associated with this feature along with a narrow layer of moisture
centered around 500mb should result in an increase in mid upper
level cloudiness this afternoon over the far north-northeast
counties, and potentially a rain shower or two in vicinity of
roanoke rapids between 4 pm and sunset. These clouds may encroach as
far south and west as the triangle, with sunny mostly sunny skies
anticipated elsewhere. Afternoon temperatures in the 50s to around
60 will be common with high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s
expected, coolest across the far north.

Tonight, clouds associated with the S W will depart prior to
midnight, leaving mostly clear skies in its wake. There will be a
light steady nly wind into the overnight as low level cold air
advection will ensue in the wake of the departing S w. Since the
wind will aid to stir the atmosphere, overnight temperatures will
generally be in the 30-35 degree range, with the coldest low
temperatures north and west of raleigh.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 415 am Monday...

1030-1032 mb, continental polar high pressure will build extend
across the middle atlantic states through mid-week, with cooler,
continued below average temperatures mostly in the mid 50s Tue and
around 30 degrees Tue night. Regarding the latter, guidance
continues to indicate cirrus cirrostratus will become broken in
coverage over cntl nc Tue night, though uncertainty remains
regarding how thick and opaque it will be. Mid-upr 20s will be
possible if that cloudiness materializes thinner than currently

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 345 am Monday...

the long term will open up with surface high pressure located
overhead and an upper level trough axis centered over northern
quebec. An omega block will center over montana with a shortwave
diving southeast around the base of the trough axis. The ecmwf, cmc
and GFS are in pretty good agreement now showing the shortwave over
missouri by Wednesday evening. There is some slight disagreement for
Wednesday evening though as the ECMWF and SREF are bringing
precipitation back north in the form of isentropic upglide and an
accompanying warm front. This solution does make sense given the
moisture from the clipper mentioned above not making it that far off
the coast of nc. Have gone ahead and raised pops Wednesday evening
to account for this.

During the day Thursday the shortwave rounding the base of the
trough axis will be moving across georgia with weak surface low
pressure forming in the open atlantic. The chance of precipitation
is low here given how far off the coast the surface low pressure is
located. The general thinking is that Wednesday evening light waa
precipitation will push north with a break in the precipitation
Thursday morning (mainly across eastern north carolina). Another
shortwave embedded in the larger scale flow will dive south
Thursday evening over the great lakes. This will push a
reinforcing surface cold front through the area. There might be
some light precipitation with the front, but again chances look
low here.

Saturday into Sunday a potent upper level low will form over
maine with falling heights across the western united states.

This means rising heights for central north carolina. This is
not only supported in the deterministic runs of the gfs, ecmwf,
and cmc, this is also supported in the corresponding ensemble
runs of each. Therefore have continued to advertise above normal
temperatures Saturday and Sunday with dry weather.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
As of 545 am Monday...

a mid to upr level disturbance and associated "clipper" surface low
will move east across va nc today; and a period ofVFR ceilings
(between 6-8 thousand ft) and widely scattered showers sprinkles
will result this afternoon over nern nc and sern va, including as
far swwd as rwi and perhaps even rdu. Initially light and variable
winds will become nwly and increase into the 10-15 kt range midday
to early afternoon, owing to the circulation around the
aforementioned surface low as it tracks toward the nc outer banks
through this evening. Additionally, nnely low level flow behind the
surface low tonight will draw moisture sswwd into ERN and e-cntl nc
through Tue morning, with a related risk of patchy low clouds just
east of rwi (in the vicinity of pgv and iso).

Outlook: the aforementioned moisture in nnely low level flow will
linger over ERN nc through mid-week; and there are indications some
of this will return wwd and yield a chance of sub-vfr ceilings and
light rain at ERN sites (rwi wwd to near or just east of rdu fay)
wed night. The passage of another mid to upr level disturbance will
result in a chance of lightVFR rain or sprinkles, from mid level
ceilings, throughout cntl nc Thu afternoon into early Thu night.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Wss
short term... Mws
long term... Haines
aviation... Mws

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC3 mi50 minNW 410.00 miFair51°F27°F39%1022.3 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC24 mi49 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds52°F30°F45%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from TTA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN5NE3S3W5CalmCalmW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5
1 day agoN9
2 days agoS11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.