Friday, September21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Moncure, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:15PM Friday September 21, 2018 11:33 AM EDT (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:42PMMoonset 2:38AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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location: 35.63, -79.09     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 211444
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1044 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

High pressure will persist across the area through tonight.

A cold front will move south into va on Saturday
night and Sunday, then stall over our area on Monday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1045 am Friday...

the latest 12z sounding from kgso this morning shows an
impressive subsidence inversion in place around 600 mb with
moisture being trapped underneath this inversion. This low level
moisture will probably have trouble being modified today given
the strong inversion, which will make high temperatures probably
a bit lower than 1000 850 thicknesses would support. Current
forecast has this covered very nicely and have continued this
trend and ran a non-diurnal trace. This afternoon some high res
models (the nssl wrf, arw, hrrr, and nmm) all show weak returns
forming. Given the strength of the cap and the 49 degree
dewpoint depression at kgso think thunder chances are near zero.

With the potent low level moisture though, slight chance weak
showers will be possible.

Prev discussion->
deep layer ridging will prevail across the carolinas through
tonight. Difficult to find a discernible trigger for convection,
with instability still limited by the warms temps aloft. Best
chance for convection looks to lie just west of the area, in the
differential heating and weak upslope regime across the nc mtns
and foothills, with the potential for a shower or storm to
drift east in the nearby far western piedmont counties. Any
convection should dissipate with loss of heating, leaving dry
conditions overnight.

Based on aggressive satellite trends, westward expanding MVFR
ceilings will envelope a good portion of the forecast area by
daybreak. Rap soundings suggest a slow and gradual
dissipation scattering out of this low cloud deck, which will likely
temper afternoon highs, or at the very least strongly offset the
typical diurnal curve, especially across the northern northwest
piedmont. Highs ranging from lower 80s north to upper 80s south.

Lows 65 to 70.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
As of 415 am Friday...

sheared shortwave trough axis left behind by the northern stream
trough lifting NE through the canadian maritime will move atop and
interact with a cold front sagging south into the southern mid-
atlantic states. While there has been some model spread and forecast
uncertainty with the timing of this front into the area during this
period, the latest model consensus suggests the front will approach
the nc-va state line Saturday afternoon, where it will then stall
across the northern piedmont and coastal plain counties Saturday
night early Sunday. If this timing location pans out, rain chances
will increase appreciably along and north of interstate- 85, with
very little south of this area through Sunday morning. Initially,
expect near-frontal convergence to drive lift forcing, with forcing
becoming increasingly ana-frontal Saturday night and into Sunday
owing to the interaction of individual shortwave disturbances and
resultant overrunning on the cool side of the boundary.

Highs Saturday will range from mid 80s north, to near 90 south,
potentially a few degrees cooler across the north if the front and
associated convection comes in a little earlier. Lows Saturday night
65 to 70.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 400 am Friday...

in-short: a cooler and wetter weather pattern is expected in the
long-term period.

Sun - Tue afternoon: a cold air damming (cad) type regime looks to
strengthen by Sunday across central nc, as the front continues
southward in back-door fashion and high pressure wedges down the lee-
side of the appalachians from the new england states. Can't rule out
a some showers and storms along the front, however, forecast
soundings aren't very bullish when it comes to instability across
portions of nc, so have kept pops at chc level for now. With
northeasterly sfc flow establishing, expect lower boundary layer
moisture to remain high through at least Tuesday evening, keeping
cloud cover abundant and temperatures well below normal for this
time of year. It wouldn't be surprising to see high temps struggling
to surpass the 70 degree mark for many near the va nc border Monday
afternoon, with primarily low to mid 70s prevalent across the
remainder of the area (can't rule out an 80 degree reading or two
across the southern coastal plain if the cad type conditions aren't
able to spread far enough south east. Precipitation chances will
remain rather constant through most of the period, however,
significant rainfall accumulations will likely be held primarily to
the original frontal passage Sunday afternoon, with a more
drizzly dreary pattern taking shape as the wedge of high pressure
takes hold.

Tuesday night - Friday: some uncertainty remains in this period, but
it is looking increasingly more likely that tropical moisture (from
the now ancient remnant of hurricane florence) will round the base
of the sub-tropical high to our east before spreading westward
across the southeastern CONUS sometime late Tuesday early Wednesday.

This period of overrunning moisture along with a progressing cold
front sliding through the great lakes should work to break the cad
event Wednesday morning, allowing a bit more daytime heating to take
place across central nc. In response,better instability, moisture,
and lift will exist, likely enhancing shower storm coverage through
the remainder of the work-week, especially with the fronts arrival
and likely stall across the area sometime Thursday Friday.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
As of 155 am Friday...

MVFR to low-endVFR ceilings are expected across the area overnight,
with the lowest ceilings more likely in proximity of the triad
terminals. Otherwise, this cloud cover should limit fog development
overnight, with the exception for fog prone area like krwi. The bulk
of the low clouds will lift and scatter out between 12z-15z, though
may linger until 16z in vicinity of the triad. Outside of some
isolated convection INVOF the triad terminals this afternoon, expect
vfr conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.

Low-level flow veers around to a more swly component Friday night,
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. This should result
in lower probabilities for sub-vfr conditions in fog and or stratus
Saturday morning. A back-door cold front will push south into the
area late Saturday and into Sunday. Owing to the approach of the
front, the chance of showers and storms will increase across the
area, especially across the northern terminals Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night. Additionally, a prolonged period of sub-vfr ceilings
associated with cold air damming east of the mtns looks increasingly
likely Sunday, lingering into early next week.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Cbl haines
near term... Cbl haines
short term... Cbl
long term... Jm
aviation... Cbl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC3 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast72°F68°F88%1024 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC24 mi1.7 hrsSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F66°F79%1024 hPa

Wind History from TTA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmNE3E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW5NE3NW5CalmN5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days agoW9

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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