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FXUS62 KRAH 191321 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 920 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend across and offshore the Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 920 AM Sunday...

With the morning update, made some minimal changes to hourly temperatures and dewpoints. Radar echoes over the forecast area have decreased significantly in the last hour, and didn't extend the drizzle that was in the forecast through 9am. That being said, think there could still be some light showers across the southern tier of the forecast area during the afternoon, although removed the chance pops from Sampson County. No thunder is in the forecast considering the stable atmosphere. Clouds should be slow to clear today, and didn't make any changes to that part of the forecast either.
Previous discussion follows.

As of 355 AM Sunday...

A positive tilt mid/upr-level trough will move across and offshore the Middle and South Atlantic through tonight. The most prominent shortwave perturbation, evident as a compact cyclone over wrn TN in the 00Z 250 mb upr air chart last evening, will move from the TN Valley this morning to the GA/SC this afternoon. While height falls and forcing for ascent will be maximized along the track of that feature (ie. south of cntl NC), a weaker disturbance now over MD will move south and across VA/NC through 00Z Mon.

At the surface, a cold front now draped from sern NC wwd across n- cntl SC will continue to make steady progress swd and across SC and the Savannah Basin today. Ridging over the Middle Atlantic will follow and extend across NC with associated nely flow.

Widespread low overcast that has developed in the post-frontal, nely low-level flow regime over cntl NC will lift and scatter to partly to variably cloudy from northwest to southeast this afternoon- evening. While the focus for light measurable rain will result over far srn NC this morning, near and north of the aforementioned cold front, the weak disturbance approaching from MD/VA may result in the development of a few very light showers/sprinkles over the ne Piedmont and Coastal Plain this afternoon.

Continued clearing skies this evening-early tonight will result in the development of radiation fog and stratus later tonight-Mon morning.

Temperatures and dewpoints will be 5-10 F lower than Sat on average, with highs mostly 70-75 and lows in the 50s to around 60.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 341 AM Sunday...

Under mid-level ridging, cool nely flow will continue on Monday as high pressure extends down the eastern seaboard. Dry weather is expected with some continuation of stratocu likely through the early evening. Low-level thicknesses will rebound a bit compared to Sunday, but temperatures will still top out a few degrees below normal in the mid to upper 70s. Dry weather and cooler overnight lows in the mid 50s is expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 341 AM Sunday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging will largely hold over the eastern US before shifting offshore through Wednesday evening. The next series of upper troughs will then lift through the Great Lakes Thursday and potentially the TN Valley on Friday/Saturday.

Tuesday through Wednesday: By Tuesday, the air mass will start to moderate some as flow turns a bit more ely, and then sely/swly Wednesday into Thursday. However, overall Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry with temperatures warming into the lower to mid 80s.

Thursday through Saturday. Ensembles continue to suggest the potential for periods of rain over this time as upper forcing from the aforementioned upper features move overhead. On Thursday, an upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day.
However, the better forcing and low-level moisture transport appears to stay well to our north, and thus as of now will maintain just slight chance to low chance POPs during this time.

From Friday onward, there is a bit better agreement amongst ensembles simulating a potentially potent short wave riding through the TN Valley and eventually over central NC through Saturday. Still a bit far out to get into specifics, but This setup could provide a bit better coverage in showers/storms for our area early this weekend.

There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday. The quartile spread widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 725 AM Sunday...

Widespread, generally IFR ceilings throughout cntl NC this morning will lift through MVFR and scatter to VFR from northwest to southeast throughout the day - first at INT/GSO and latest at FAY.
At least partial clearing tonight, especially over the Piedmont, will result in the development of radiation fog/stratus, some probably dense, late tonight-Mon morning. Meanwhile, areas of MVFR or IFR-based clouds may linger and limit the development of fog in the Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills, including at RWI and FAY.

Outlook: A risk of late night-early morning fog/stratus will continue through mid-week, followed by a chance of afternoon- evening showers/storms on Thu.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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