Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:23 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 281340 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 940 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly drift southward off the mid-Atlantic coast today, settling off the Southeast United States tonight through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 940 AM Sunday...

Minimal changes were needed with the morning update. Other than tweaking hourly temperatures and dewpoints, the forecast appears to be in good shape. Although the sky cover in the forecast is currently more than shown on the satellite, the diurnal cumulus is developing earlier than it did yesterday, so will let the forecast play out. Previous discussion follows.

As of 250 AM Sunday...

Central NC will remain under the influence of a high amplitude upper level ridge through tonight. At the surface, high pressure will slide slowly south off the Carolina coast today and settle off the Southeast US coast tonight, all while ridging wwd to wnwwd into the Carolinas. An area of low pressure is expected to move eastward through the Northeast and northern mid-Atlantic today and tonight, however the attendant surface trough should remain well north of the area as the ridge dominates over central NC. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies are expected through tonight. Above normal temperatures are forecast. Highs today similar to a couple degrees higher than Sat, upper 70s to low 80s. Lows tonight will be continued mild, in mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 305 AM Sunday...

The upper level ridge will slowly progress eastward to along the East Coast Mon/Mon night as a s/w moves eastward through the lower/mid MS Valley and into the TN Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain off the Southeast US coast and continue to ridge wnwwd into the Carolinas through Mon night. The weather should remain dry through Mon night. Sunny to mostly sunny skies Mon should give way to some increasing cloudiness from the west late Mon night.
Temperatures should increase a couple/few degrees from today/tonight and remain well above normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 400 AM Sunday...

Warm, with limited, scattered precipitation chances confined mainly to late Tue-Wed and again Sat.

A shortwave perturbation now digging across wrn NV will have assumed neutral tilt and reached the mid-South and Middle/wrn TN vicinity by 12Z Tue. This feature will be slightly preceded by a banner of convectively-generated/enhanced vorticity forecast to extend from the lwr Great Lakes through ern OH Valley and GA, related to an extensive QLCS now stretching from IL to TX. The two will move across the srn Appalachians late Tue and the srn Middle Atlantic Tue night-Wed. In their wake, mid-level ridging will expand and strengthen from the Gulf of Mexico newd across and offshore the South and Middle Atlantic Thu-Fri. Another mid-level trough, at the base of a cyclone forecast to deepen while pivoting across the upr MS Valley and upr Great Lakes, will probably move across the Carolinas Fri night-Sat.

At the surface, on the wrn periphery high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas, a pre-frontal/lee trough will move into a mean position over the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont late Tue through Wed.
Canadian high pressure will build down the Middle Atlantic coast with associated anticyclonic flow but limited cooling into cntl NC Thu. Renewed lee troughing will develop and spread across the Piedmont Fri-Sat.

The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will feature above average temperatures throughout the forecast period, with highs in the 80s and lows in the upr 50s to lwr-mid 60s. The relative best chance of rain/convection will result Tue afternoon- evening, especially over the Piedmont where diurnal timing of the aforementioned shortwave and surface troughs will be maximized, perhaps lingering in the Coastal Plain Wed, with the slow passage of the aforementioned shortwave perturbation there. The next at or above climo chance of rain should then accompany the approach and passage of the following mid-level trough late Fri-Sat.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 645 AM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: After any lingering fog/low stratus lifts this morning, fairly high confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the 24-hr TAF period. The exception would be some possible fog/low stratus again Mon morn invof KFAY and KRWI, which some medium-range guidance is still hinting at. A few/sct mid clouds may develop invof KRDU/KFAY mid-day, otherwise mainly few/sct high clouds expected. Winds should increase into the 7-10 kt range late this morn/early aft and become southwesterly. Winds should then decrease a couple/few kts after sunset.

Outlook: Some medium-range guidance is still hinting at moisture in the low levels invof KRWI and KFAY again Tue morning, however it does not appear saturated enough to result in any restrictions at this time. Otherwise, largely VFR conditions are expected through Tue. Generally dry weather is expected through Mon. The next chance for showers will be diurnal convection Tue (mainly west) and Wed (mainly east).

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
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Sun -- 01:29 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:33 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:21 AM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:19 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:49 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:01 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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