Monday, June25, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:36PM Monday June 25, 2018 3:31 AM EDT (07:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:25PMMoonset 3:17AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 250725
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
324 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

A weak cold front will move south into northern nc tonight, then
stall over central nc Monday. The front will then drift south
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 410 pm Sunday...

potential for a convectively active day Monday-Monday night. Some
model guidance suggest a MCV crossing eastern ky northeast tn Monday
morning, passing overhead late Monday afternoon through Monday
evening. The atmosphere Monday afternoon projected to be moderately
to strongly unstable with MLCAPE 3000-3500 j kg across the southern
counties, in vicinity of the stalled sfc front. One element Monday
that we are lacking today is shear. The latest NAM suggest bulk
shear on the order of 35-40kts over the region late Monday-Monday
evening. If this materializes, should see convection organize into a
decent bow or a qlcs capable of producing significant wind damage.

In addition, any storm cell that intersects the sfc boundary will
have the potential to develop low level rotation, supportive of
short lived weak tornadoes. Plan to highlight the wind threat in the
hwo while the tornado threat appears too minimal to mention at this

The convective scenario has the potential to evolve into a heavy
rain event as storms may train eastward along the stalled boundary
across the south well into the night Monday night. Due to recent dry
conditions across sections of the southern piedmont and sandhills,
do not anticipate a flood watch though would not be surprised if a
few urban small stream flood advisories issued.

Temperatures Monday afternoon should average about a category cooler
most locations in anticipation of more cloud coverage and expected
convection. Highs should vary from 85-90 across the north, and 90-95
degrees across the south.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 320 am Monday...

unsettled weather will continue on Tuesday with the stalled low
level frontal zone expected to be located across central nc. The
main surface front is expected to be located across extreme southern
portions of central nc on Tuesday, with cool, cloudy and wet
conditions. Thus, with a weak slow moving disturbance tracking along
the low level frontal zone and pw's of around 2+ inches we may see
some heavy rain, though model guidance is currently struggling with
resolving these details at this time. Given the expected cloud cover
and precip expect high temps will be rather cool for this time of
year, ranging from the upper 70s across the far north to the mid 80s
south southwest.

Any lingering precip will generally come to and end by Wednesday
morning, with the slow moving disturbance shifting to the east of
the area as S W riding shifts eastward and over central nc.

Overnight lows are expected to generally be in the upper 60s to
around 70 on Tuesday night Wednesday morning.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 344 pm Sunday...

Tuesday and Tuesday night: the forecast for this period still remain
quite uncertain, as much of it will depend on what happens with the
mcs tracking through the midwest into the tn valley today tonight.

Though the models differ, there is an indication that the upper
level wave and embedded disturbances will swing through portions of
central nc Tuesday into Tuesday evening. How long, where, and how
intense the convection is when it does so are hard to get a handle
on and will depend greatly on the surface boundary as convection
will be focused along it. There is a potential things could still be
quite active Tuesday, especially across the south and east, thus
have increased rain and thunder chances during that time. Keep in
mind, should the boundary set up along the sc nc border, much of
central nc could remain convection free. Temperatures will also
depend on the convection and associated cloud cover and outflow, but
for now expect Tuesday to be the "coolest" day of the period, with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday through Sunday: another, deeper, low will progress
eastward out of the northern high plains and into the great lakes on
Tuesday night Wednesday. The trough will swing through the area on
Wednesday, pushing the previous low offshore and bringing another
round of convection into central nc. The upper level ridge will then
once again build east and northward over the region over the weekend
as the piedmont trough once again sets up. Convection during this
period, aside from mentioned above, will primarily be diurnal in
nature. Temperatures are expected to increase once again for the end
of the week into the weekend, with highs returning to the mid 90s
and lows in the mid 70s. Though it's a bit far out in time, heat
indices on Friday could once again approach exceed heat advisory
criteria for points between the triangle and fayetteville.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Friday
As of 319 am Monday...

vfr conditions are expected to persist through 18z. In the meantime,
a weak sfc front boundary is forecast to push south across southern
nc, where it is forecast stall through early Tuesday.

A series of low-amplitude disturbances and potentially a MCS or
mcv will track east-southeast across the area this afternoon
and into the day on Tuesday. These disturbances will fuel scattered
to numerous widespread storms this afternoon and through the
overnight hours. Conditions will be favorable for storms to produce
sub-vfr conditions in torrential rain, along with strong gusty
winds. This cluster of storms has the potential to produce a large
swath of damaging winds along with some hail across southern areas,
including kfay between 00 to 06z. Sub-vfr ceilings are expected to
develop late tonight Tuesday morning as the boundary settles further
south and a moist easterly flow advects low stratus in the area.

Outlook: convection should be less numerous from mid week and beyond
as an area of high pressure strengthens just north of our region.

The presence of this system should inhibit afternoon convective
development, especially across the northern counties, with isolated-
scattered convection possible late in the day-early evening across
the far south-southeast. OtherwiseVFR parameters anticipated for
much of the remainder of the week.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Badgett mlm
near term... Wss
short term... Bsd
long term... Kc
aviation... Cbl wss

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi40 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast75°F72°F90%1014.8 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi46 minS 610.00 miFair74°F72°F97%1015.2 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair74°F70°F89%1014.9 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi16 minS 410.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW8SW9SW7SW7W5SW6SW75SW7W9
1 day agoSW4SW7SW7SW9SW8SW11SW11SW14SW12
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW6SW6CalmSW7SW10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 02:09 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:04 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:11 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Mon -- 04:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:06 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:43 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.