Wednesday, April25, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:58PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:27 AM EDT (06:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:36PMMoonset 3:10AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 250622
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
222 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

An upper level low, and related surface low pressure system, will
track northeastward across central nc and southeastern va early
today. A weak cold front will then cross our region late this
afternoon and tonight.

Near term through tonight
As of 955 pm Tuesday...

high rain chances will persist overnight over the W and N sections
of the forecast area, although the loss of heating has led to
lowering CAPE and a resultant slow decrease in severe risk. The
surface low is currently analyzed just SE of clt, with an occluded
front extending to its E across far SE nc, and weak troughs
extending to its NW and ssw. Stacked cyclonic flow persists up
through the mid levels over W nc, and this will move slowly eastward
overnight, as the surface low tracks northeastward over central nc.

The earlier strong to severe storms formed and moved into areas with
effective shear over 30 kts, 200-300 m2 s2 of 0-1 km srh, and lcls
under 750 m across all but far southern parts of central nc, north
of the occluded front within the strong low level easterly flow.

While mid level lapse rates did not exceed 6 c km, MUCAPE was 500-
1000 j kg along and south of the northward-pushing front, and a few
cells which tracked NE or nne along or at a small angle to the cape
gradient exhibited tight gate-to-gate circulations, feeding on the
high low level vorticity. The best low level shear has pushed
further N into va and CAPE has decreased (although moderate values
hold over the central coastal plain), and the risk of severe storms
should continue to dwindle. But the approaching mid level low and
pockets of dpva and upper divergence maxima (one of which is now
tracking N over the W piedmont) will continue to support convection
overnight, and will maintain high chance pops across the W and n,
shifting slowly wnw through daybreak wed. This will include a threat
for isolated strong dynamically-driven storms, with the potential
for small hail. With clouds holding overnight (albeit with breaks
across the SE sections) and high dewpoints, expect temps to drop
minimally overnight, yielding lows in the mid-upper 50s. -gih
previous discussion from 405 pm: water vapor imagery depicts a well
defined mature cyclone over the tn valley with a couple of
discernible S ws rotating around it. One S W is lifting newd across
eastern tn western nc, while another was noted crossing the deep
south. The lead S W will lift across our region this evening, while
the later should lift into our area late overnight early Wednesday.

These S ws interacting with a available moisture will
trigger sustain numerous showers and a few thunderstorms late this
afternoon through sunset. Bulk of thunderstorm activity will remain
south-southwest of raleigh. Narrow axis of instability and shear in
vicinity of a nwd moving warm front will maintain a slight threat
for a severe storm or two through 23z across the southern piedmont
and sandhills.

May see a lull in the shower activity behind the initial S W mid-
late evening before showers start to increase in coverage across the
western piedmont ahead of the next S w. This increase in shower
activity should occur after 06z. Potential for areas of fog to
develop across the eastern counties, though most of the visibilities
should be above a mile. Overnight temperatures in the 50s.

Short term Wednesday and Wednesday night
As of 405 pm Tuesday...

Wednesday, the upper level low will migrate east across the region.

Expect showers to be concentrated near the center of this system in
the morning then expand south and east in the afternoon. Will
refrain from mention thunder at this time though an isolated rumble
of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially east and southeast of
raleigh. With peeks of Sun expected, it should be notably warmer
across the northern counties compared to this afternoon. Highs
should range from near 70 in the NW to the mid 70s south.

Subsidence behind the departing upper low and loss of heating
Wednesday evening should cause showers to quickly diminish in the
early evening. Cloud cover will be slow to erode in the evening due
to the cyclonic flow though this becomes more anti-cyclonic
overnight. This should lead to partly cloudy skies. Min temps in the
low-mid 50s.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 335 pm Tuesday...

as the mid- upper-level low lifts off to the northeast and gets
absorbed into the low over the great lakes there will be a brief
lull in precipitation chances over central nc Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon. Another shortwave low aloft will swing through
the the deep south and toward the mid-atlantic coast Thursday
resulting in another chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
region Thursday aft eve into the overnight hours. As that second
shortwave low moves through the area, a third shortwave will dive
south through the arklatex, elongating the parent longwave trough
aloft. This third low may result in additional precipitation over
the carolinas, however there are some model differences in that
regard at this time. Will continue to carry at least a slight chance
for rain through Friday night, but confidence in rain occurring is
not terribly high at this time. Meanwhile at the surface, a low will
drift north-northeastward out of the deep south and along the
eastern seaboard toward new england. Temperatures Thursday through
Saturday: highs ranging from around 70 degrees in the NW to mid 70s
se and lows decreasing from mid 70s Thursday night to mid 40s NW to
around 50 degrees SE Saturday night. Largely expect Sunday and
Monday to be dry with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the
mid 40s to low 50s.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 215 am Tuesday...

widespread (l)ifr conditions will persist this morning from the
triad (int gso) enewd to near and just north of rdu and rwi, in a
residually cool stable saturated cold air damming air mass situated
to the north of a nearly stationary front analyzed at 06z from near
vuj to rdu to ecg. Given the close proximity of that boundary to rdu
and rwi, occasionalVFR conditions will be possible at those sites
this morning. While some fog has recently developed to the south of
the front, including at fay, it is likely to be patchy and brief.

Otherwise, an upr level low and associated cold temperatures aloft
will track directly over cntl nc early today. A (deformation) MVFR
cloud band and showers will accompany the passing upr lvl low; and
some storms with small hail will also likely result as diurnal
heating destabilization occurs after 15z centered around the
rwi ixa asj vicinity, beneath the aforementioned cold temperatures
aloft, this afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve toVFR from
west to east as westerly flow ushers drier air into our region
behind the low pressure.

Outlook: an upr level trough and related surface low pressure system
will track newd across the carolinas Thu night. A period of sub-vfr
conditions, showers, and a chance of thunderstorms, will result
during that time.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Hartfield wss
short term... Wss
long term... Kc
aviation... Mws

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi37 minSE 48.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F61°F100%1007.9 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi33 minSE 47.00 miOvercast61°F59°F93%1007.8 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi33 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist59°F58°F100%1007.1 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi23 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F60°F100%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE9E10E8E7E9E13
1 day agoE5E7E7E6E7E7E9E6E8SE13
2 days agoS4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4SW55SW8S5S665S7SE4SE6E5SE7SE12

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:35 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Wed -- 03:49 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:30 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:00 PM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.