Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:32PM Saturday January 20, 2018 9:21 PM EST (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:32AMMoonset 8:58PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 202356
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
655 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will drift across the southeastern united states
through tonight, then offshore on Sunday. A cold front will approach
from the west Monday, and cross central nc on Tuesday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 330 pm Saturday...

current stretch of tranquil weather conditions will continue during
the near term. An area of sfc high pressure located over southern
georgia will continue to slowly weaken as it drifts eastward tonight
and Sunday. Meanwhile, a compact upper level low pressure system
over the north central gulf early this afternoon will weaken as it
slowly lifts east-ne tonight and Sunday. This weather system will
spread patchy mid-high level clouds over central nc very late
tonight and more notable on Sunday.

The moistening of the atmosphere may allow for the development of
patchy fog overnight into early Sunday morning, primarily over the
piedmont as warmer air traverses over the cooler ground in the wake
of the recent snowpack. Not all models are showing this signal so
there is the potential that no fog or low clouds will develop. For
now, will advertise visibility no worse than a mile or two at this
time. Min temps near 30 to the lower 30s. Expect enough sunshine
Sunday afternoon along with a steady swly low level flow to push
temperatures into the low-mid 60s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
As of 330 pm Saturday...

may see a better potential for areas of fog late Sunday night into
early Monday morning, primarily across the piedmont, though
increasing high cloudiness may inhibit fog development in vicinity
of the yadkin pee dee river valley. Min temps mostly in the mid 30s.

Monday, a deep cyclone over central plains will slowly lift into and
across the great lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Swly low level flow
will continue to pull warm air into the carolinas. This warm air
coupled with ample sunshine will push temperatures well into the 60s
along and east of highway 1. Thickening cloud coverage over the west
will inhibit sunshine to result in cooler temps, holding the nw
piedmont in the upper 50s to around 60. At this time, expect bulk of
the showers to hold off until after sunset, though a stray shower or
two cannot be ruled out in vicinity of winston-salem by late
afternoon.

The trailing sfc cold front associated with the deep cyclone will
approach from the west Monday evening, and cross our region early
Tuesday. Thickening clouds and steady sly flow will likely maintain
mild conditions Monday night with some places likely not dropping
much below 55 degrees. Better support aloft over the NW piedmont
suggest better shower coverage in this region, with support waning
farther to the south and east. Currently not expecting abundant
rainfall with this system as forcing not overly impressive. Rainfall
totals will likely vary from less than a half inch NW to under a
quarter of an inch se. Morning clouds and scattered showers Tuesday
morning will giveway to increasingly sunny skies. 850mb front does
not cross region until the afternoon, so we should have time to warm
before low level cold air advection commences late in the day. This
required an adjustment up in high temperatures Tuesday. Currently
expect MAX temps Tuesday to be in the 60-65 degree range.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 212 pm Saturday...

Tuesday night and beyond: quiet weather with near to above
seasonal temperatures are expected into early Saturday. The
upper air pattern Tuesday night features a departing short wave
trough aloft and cold front. A period of short- lived strong
cold advection Tuesday night results in clearing skies and
temperatures that fall to near normal in the upper 20s to lower
30s. Weak short-wave ridging develops on Wednesday and
temperatures reach he mid to possibly upper 50s. A short-wave
trough and an associated cold front with very little moisture
swings across the region late Wednesday early Thursday. Skies
will remain mainly clear with limited sensible weather impacts.

Ridging aloft with increasing heights build into the area for
Thursday into early Saturday. Skies will remain generally clear
with moderating temperatures. Highs on Thursday will range in
the lower to mid 50s, in the mid to upper 50s on Friday and in
the mid 50s to lower 60s on Saturday.

A higher amplitude trough that moves onto the pacific coast on
Thursday reaches the central plains by Saturday night. Deep
layer southerly flow transports moisture northward from the gulf
and pacific as a surface wave develops in the mid-mississippi
valley. Both the 12z operational GFS and ec have trended slower
with the precipitation arrival in our region, especially with the
precipitation spreading northward across ga and the carolinas
as the surface high is slower to depart. Will keep pops confined
to the Saturday night period for now. -blaes

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 700 pm Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: a lot of discrepancy in the short term models
over the extend of fog during the early morning hours on Sunday
morning. The fog in the models appears to be related to the left
over snow pack over the triad and as far east as rdu. Models are
split on the effects of the leftover snow on visibility and the sref
points to a fairly extensive fog event where as other short term
models such as the hrrr are keeping visibilities atVFR levels. Have
decided to go with ifr visibilities after 6z in the triad and after
9z at krdu. Any fog will rebound toVFR after sunrise. Some mid
level clouds can be expected on Sunday especially later in the day
as rh cross sections point to a lot of moisture in the 4-6 kft
range. No precipitation is expected and winds should remain light
and variable as surface high pressure remains in control of the
pattern.

Long term: after another bout of possible fog early Monday morning,
vfr conditions are expected through Monday night before a weak
frontal system approaches the area by Tuesday morning. Sub-vfr
conditions can be expected through Tuesday evening before a return
toVFR on Wednesday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Blaes
aviation... Ellis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi31 minWSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds42°F33°F71%1022.1 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi27 minWSW 3 miFair44°F27°F53%1022.7 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair32°F30°F93%1022.3 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi7 minN 010.00 miFair34°F32°F93%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmSW4SW4SW4W3SW5SW5SW4W5CalmW4W5SW5SW7SW5SW8SW9SW6SW5SW5W4SW6
1 day agoW4SW6SW5SW4SW3SW3SW3SW4CalmNW3CalmS3CalmSW3CalmS3SW6SW8SW8SW6SW5SW3CalmSW3
2 days ago543NW7NW853NW3CalmCalmW343W4W6W7W7W8W5SW5W4SW7SW5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 12:10 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:57 AM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:14 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:19 PM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.10.50.91.21.21.210.80.50.30.100.10.40.91.21.41.41.310.80.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM EST     1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:05 PM EST     1.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:34 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.61.61.51.30.90.60.30.1-00.20.71.31.71.81.81.61.30.90.60.30.10.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.