Saturday, July22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday July 22, 2017 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:22AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 221946
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
346 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Hot high pressure will remain across the mid-south and southern
appalachians through the weekend, then gradually weaken by
early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 343 pm Saturday...

dangerously hot conditions will continue across central nc
through Sunday evening...

excessive heat warning now in effect for the cities of raleigh
and fayetteville (counties of wake and cumberland) through
Sunday at 700 pm...

excessive heat warning has been expanded to include much of the
coastal plain and eastern piedmont through 700 pm Sunday...

heat advisory in effect for the rest of our region, including
all of the rest of the area through through 7 pm Sunday...

mid-afternoon temperatures had reached 99 at raleigh and
fayetteville, with heat indices of 107 and 113 respectively.

Many areas, including the NW piedmont were reporting
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices of 105
or higher. A SW breeze around 10 mph was helping a bit; although
in the Sun it feels like a blow torch. Actual highs of 97-101
still expected, with heat indices of 110-115 in the warning
area, 105-109 in the advisory.

Convection has been limited to isolated over the piedmont, but
there were several rather large thunderstorms over the ridges in
the blue ridge near the low level trough, moving ese. We will
maintain a slight chance pop for isolated storms through the
early evening, and keep the chance pop in the NW as some of the
cams were showing this convection activity may develop further
and drift toward the nw-n piedmont through 700 or 800 pm.

Mlcapes of 2000 to 2500+ j kg along with pw's in excess of 2+
inches in the east suggest any storm will be capable of very
heavy rain and strong, gusty wind to 45-50 mph.

Heat warnings and advisories have been extended through the
night as lows of 77-82 will not allow enough cooling potential
for those outdoors or those with no air conditioning. Air
movement is a must when nightly lows do not fall below 80.

Upstream MCS activity may generate some threat of convection
across the northern tier later tonight.

Short term Sunday through through Sunday night
As of 343 pm Saturday...

Warnings and advisories continue through 700 pm Sunday

another day of very hot temperatures of 96-101, with dew points
near record highs (mid to upper 70s in the east) yields heat
index values of 105 to 115, highest in fay and raleigh and
coastal plain. These warnings and advisories have been extended
through the night as lows of 77-82 will not allow enough cooling
potential for those outdoors or those with no air conditioning.

Air movement is a must when nightly lows do not fall below 80.

Convection chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening as
a weakening cool front approaches in the wnw flow aloft. At
least scattered storms should bring cooling relief to portions
of the region late day or during Sunday evening. Thunderstorm
chances remain Sunday night. Lows generally a few degrees cooler
with lower to mid 70s north and west, upper 70s se.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday...

cyclonic flow aloft initially over the mid-atlantic is progged to
weaken by mid-week as a new england trough lifts northeast into the
atlantic and a central CONUS ridge extends eastward into the
appalachians, though shortwave energy may stall out over the
southeast in the process. Cyclonic flow aloft is progged to
strengthen return by mid late week an upper level ridge amplifies
over the intermountain west rockies. Expect near to slightly above
normal temperatures and above normal precip chances early next week,
transitioning to near normal temperatures and precip chances mid-
week as flow aloft weakens (though confidence is lower than average
given that shortwave energy may stall over the southeast), followed
by above normal chances for precip and below normal temperatures by
the end of the week as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over the
region. -vincent

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
As of 335 pm Saturday...

aside from a small chance of MVFR thunderstorms, and associated
gusty winds, generallyVFR conditions with light surface winds
are expected through the TAF period. The relative highest
probability of convection will be at int and gso, where upstream
convection and associated outflow, from a couple of mcs's over
the oh valley and or from the appalachians, may propagate late
this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise and elsewhere, an
isolated "pop-up" storm will be possible, but predictability and
timing of any such occurrence is too low to include for any
other TAF site at this time.

Outlook: mainlyVFR conditions will continue through the middle of
next week, with the primary sub-vfr risk coming courtesy of showers
and storms that will grow in coverage each successive day through

Rdu records:
date | high year | high min year
22 july | 103 2011 | 78 2011
23 july | 105 1952 | 78 2011
24 july | 101 2011 | 79 2011
gso records:
date | high year | high min year
22 july | 101 1926 | 77 2011
23 july | 99 1952 | 78 2010
24 july | 99 1914 | 78 2010
fay records:
date | high year | high min year
22 july | 107 1932 | 79 2011
23 july | 103 2011 | 79 1998
24 july | 105 1952 | 79 1945

Rah watches warnings advisories
Excessive heat warning until 7 pm edt Sunday for ncz010-011-

Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz010-011-

Heat advisory until 7 pm edt Sunday for ncz007>009-021>025-

Synopsis... Badgett mws
near term... Badgett
short term... Badgett
long term... Vincent
aviation... Badgett mws
climate... Rah

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi59 minSW 14 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy96°F73°F48%1011.6 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi65 minSSW 710.00 miFair94°F72°F50%1012.9 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi60 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy94°F72°F50%1012.2 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi50 minSW 7 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy93°F77°F59%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
1 day agoSW4NE6S4SE4S4S3CalmSW4SW5SW6SW6SW5CalmSW5SW3SW5NW4CalmN3SW84SW14NW6NW6
2 days ago4NE4NE5NE4S4CalmSE3S3S5S3CalmSW3CalmW3SW4SW3W3W3NW3N5Calm5SW4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 02:52 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:15 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:20 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:17 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Sat -- 05:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:01 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:06 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.